Tennis EdgeBoard - 2026-05-21

Kalshi KXATPMATCH 2m · 1792rKalshi KXWTAMATCH 2m · 1688rKalshi KXFRENCHOPEN 2mKalshi KXFOPENMENSINGLE 2mKalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM 2m · 14rKalshi KXUSOPEN 2mKalshi KXATPSETWINNER 2m · 3562rKalshi KXATPTOTALSETS 2mKalshi KXATPSETSWEEP 2mKalshi KXATPGAMESPREAD 2mKalshi KXATPEXACTMATCH 2m · 1060rKalshi KXWTADOUBLES 2mKalshi KXATP1RANK 2m · 16relo last computed 2m · 20051rrankings last pulled 2m · 3745rrankings atp latest date 17drankings wta latest date 17dmirror atp schedule 0m · 312rh2h last computed 4dh2h n pairs missinglast player db run missingresults last_run missingpp_edges CSV 0mkalshi edges JSON 0mpaper trades PP 0mpaper trades Kalshi 0mdaily payload 0mPP movement 0mPP calibration 0m

Matches today

scheduled

ELITE edges

across Kalshi + PP

STRONG edges

tier 2

MED edges

tier 3

Paper locks

Kalshi + PP

Real Money YTD

-$10.00

paper-gate restored

Qualifying skipped

filtered out today

Last refresh

13:11

2026-05-21 UTC

🏆 Best Bet (main-draw)

No main-draw Kalshi pick survived qualifying filter today.

🎯 Safest (P ≥ 65%)

Shuai Zhang

Shuai Zhang vs Emma Navarro · Quarterfinal hard · LOW

70%

Heavy main-draw favorite · PAPER

Edge +44.2pp
Ask 26¢

💎 Biggest Payout (ELITE)

No ELITE main-draw longshot today.

#	Match	Tournament	Round	Surface	Start	ELO A	ELO B	ELO diff	Kalshi event
1	Jaqueline Cristian vs Daria Kasatkina	Internationaux de Strasbourg presented by Mammotion	Quarterfinal	clay	May 21 10:40	1635	1639	-4	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY21CRIKAS
2	? vs Sofia Costoulas	Roland Garros	Qualifying Final	clay	May 21 11:20	—	1665	—
3	? vs Sofia Costoulas	Roland Garros	Qualifying Final	clay	May 21 11:20	—	1665	—
4	Petra Marcinko vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro	Grand Prix Son Altesse Royale La Princesse Lalla Meryem	Quarterfinal	clay	May 21 12:00	1723	1643	+80	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY21MARBOU
5	Chak Lam Coleman Wong vs Juan Carlos Prado Angelo	Roland Garros	Qualifying Final	clay	May 21 12:20	1484	1693	-209	KXATPMATCH-26MAY21WONPRA
6	Chak Lam Coleman Wong vs Juan Carlos Prado Angelo	Roland Garros	Qualifying Final	clay	May 21 12:20	1484	1693	-209	KXATPMATCH-26MAY21WONPRA
7	Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud	Gonet Geneva Open	Quarterfinal	clay	May 21 13:00	1547	1744	-197	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY21POPRUU-1
8	Jaime Faria vs Lukas Neumayer	Roland Garros	Qualifying Final	clay	May 21 13:10	1660	1639	+21	KXATPMATCH-26MAY21FARNEU
9	Jaime Faria vs Lukas Neumayer	Roland Garros	Qualifying Final	clay	May 21 13:10	1660	1639	+21	KXATPMATCH-26MAY21FARNEU
10	Tommy Paul vs Daniel Altmaier	Bitpanda Hamburg Open	Quarterfinal	clay	May 21 13:15	1748	1610	+138	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY21PAUALT-2
11	Alina Korneeva vs Julia Riera	Roland Garros	Qualifying Final	clay	May 21 13:15	1466	1664	-197	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY21KORRIE
12	Alina Korneeva vs Julia Riera	Roland Garros	Qualifying Final	clay	May 21 13:15	1466	1664	-197	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY21KORRIE
13	Ashlyn Krueger vs Mary Stoiana	Roland Garros	Qualifying Final	clay	May 21 13:20	1511	1620	-108	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY21KRUSTO
14	Ashlyn Krueger vs Mary Stoiana	Roland Garros	Qualifying Final	clay	May 21 13:20	1511	1620	-108	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY21KRUSTO
15	Anhelina Kalinina vs Anna Bondar	Grand Prix Son Altesse Royale La Princesse Lalla Meryem	Quarterfinal	clay	May 21 13:25	1767	1803	-36	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY21KALBON
16	? vs Emma Navarro	Internationaux de Strasbourg presented by Mammotion	Quarterfinal	clay	May 21 13:25	—	1578	—
17	Jil Teichmann vs Yasmine Kabbaj	Grand Prix Son Altesse Royale La Princesse Lalla Meryem	Quarterfinal	clay	May 21 14:00	1645	1616	+29	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY21TEIKAB
18	Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli	Bitpanda Hamburg Open	Quarterfinal	clay	May 21 14:30	1447	1721	-274	KXATPMATCH-26MAY21KOVUGO
19	Victoria Mboko vs Leylah Fernandez	Internationaux de Strasbourg presented by Mammotion	Quarterfinal	clay	May 21 15:30	1704	1590	+113	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY21MBOFER
20	Alex Michelsen vs Learner Tien	Gonet Geneva Open	Quarterfinal	clay	May 21 16:00	1488	1466	+23	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY21MICTIE-1
21	Luciano Darderi vs Alex De Minaur	Bitpanda Hamburg Open	Quarterfinal	clay	May 21 16:00	1767	1652	+115	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY21DARDE-2
22	Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik	Gonet Geneva Open	Quarterfinal	clay	May 21 17:30	1566	1724	-159	KXATPMATCH-26MAY21RINBUB

#	Match	Our pick	Our P	Mkt P	Ask	Edge	Tier	Decision	Vol 24h	Surface	Round	EV/$
1	Shuai Zhang vs Emma Navarro	Shuai Zhang	70.2%	26.0%	26¢	+44.2pp	LOW	PAPER	10897	hard	Quarterfinal	+0.442
2	Sofia Costoulas vs Hanyu Guo Qual	Sofia Costoulas	52.5%	14.0%	14¢	+38.5pp	LOW	SKIP	87703	hard	Qualification Final	+0.385
3	Yasmine Kabbaj vs Jil Teichmann	Yasmine Kabbaj	52.0%	18.0%	18¢	+34.0pp	LOW	PAPER	2601	clay	Quarterfinal	+0.340
4	Daria Kasatkina vs Jaqueline Cristian	Daria Kasatkina	55.2%	23.0%	23¢	+32.2pp	LOW	PAPER	625101	clay	Quarterfinal	+0.323
5	Marina Bassols Ribera vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich Qual	Marina Bassols Ribera	54.4%	26.0%	26¢	+28.4pp	LOW	PAPER	98	clay	Qualifying Final	+0.284
6	Rebecca Sramkova vs Maria Carle Qual	Maria Carle	54.1%	29.0%	29¢	+25.1pp	LOW	PAPER	7	clay	Qualifying Final	+0.251
7	Tom Gentzsch vs Roman Safiullin Qual	Tom Gentzsch	49.3%	25.0%	25¢	+24.3pp	LOW	PAPER	1257	hard	Qualification Final	+0.243
8	Ashlyn Krueger vs Mary Stoiana Qual	Mary Stoiana	55.0%	31.0%	31¢	+24.0pp	LOW	PAPER	5471	clay	Qualifying Final	+0.240
9	Coleman Wong vs Juan Carlos Prado Angelo Qual	Coleman Wong	45.0%	22.0%	22¢	+23.0pp	LOW	PAPER	111508	clay	Qualifying Final	+0.230
10	Leandro Riedi vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert Qual	Pierre-Hugues Herbert	45.0%	27.0%	27¢	+18.0pp	LOW	PAPER	832	hard	Qualification Final	+0.180
11	Hugo Dellien vs Roberto Carballes Baena Qual	Roberto Carballes Baena	54.8%	38.0%	38¢	+16.8pp	LOW	PAPER	873	hard	Qualification Final	+0.167
12	Darwin Blanch vs Luka Pavlovic Qual	Luka Pavlovic	54.0%	38.0%	38¢	+16.0pp	LOW	PAPER	997	clay	Qualifying Final	+0.160
13	Emilio Nava vs Pedro Martinez Qual	Pedro Martinez	50.7%	35.0%	35¢	+15.7pp	LOW	PAPER	2540	hard	Qualification Final	+0.157
14	Alina Korneeva vs Julia Riera Qual	Julia Riera	58.6%	43.0%	43¢	+15.6pp	LOW	PAPER	3564	clay	Qualifying Final	+0.156
15	Lucia Bronzetti vs Katarina Zavatska Qual	Katarina Zavatska	55.0%	43.0%	43¢	+12.0pp	LOW	PAPER	29	clay	Qualifying Final	+0.120
16	Linda Fruhvirtova vs Harmony Tan Qual	Harmony Tan	50.2%	39.0%	39¢	+11.2pp	LOW	PAPER	108	clay	Qualifying Final	+0.112
17	Alex de Minaur vs Luciano Darderi	Alex de Minaur	64.7%	54.0%	54¢	+10.7pp	LOW	PAPER	26650	hard	Quarterfinal	+0.107
18	Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Petra Marcinko	Jessica Bouzas Maneiro	43.6%	33.0%	33¢	+10.6pp	LOW	PAPER	60482	clay	Quarterfinal	+0.106
19	Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Vilius Gaubas Qual	Vilius Gaubas	45.3%	35.0%	35¢	+10.3pp	LOW	PAPER	6768	clay	Qualifying Final	+0.103
20	Borna Gojo vs Jurij Rodionov Qual	Borna Gojo	54.4%	46.0%	46¢	+8.4pp	LOW	PAPER	1550	hard	Qualification Final	+0.084
21	Casper Ruud vs Alexei Popyrin	Alexei Popyrin	35.0%	28.0%	28¢	+7.0pp	LOW	PAPER	131233	hard	Quarterfinal	+0.070
22	Felix Gill vs Kyrian Jacquet Qual	Felix Gill	52.8%	46.0%	46¢	+6.8pp	LOW	PAPER	3845	clay	Qualifying Final	+0.068
23	Anhelina Kalinina vs Anna Bondar	Anna Bondar	52.6%	46.0%	46¢	+6.6pp	LOW	PAPER	12732	clay	Quarterfinal	+0.066
24	Guiomar Maristany Zuleta de Reales vs Kaitlin Quevedo Qual	Guiomar Maristany Zuleta de Reales	52.7%	48.0%	48¢	+4.7pp	LOW	PAPER	1154	clay	Qualifying Final	+0.047
25	Alexander Bublik vs Arthur Rinderknech	Arthur Rinderknech	43.6%	39.0%	39¢	+4.6pp	LOW	PAPER	10827	clay	Quarterfinal	+0.046
26	Alexis Galarneau vs Federico Cina Qual	Federico Cina	49.4%	46.0%	46¢	+3.4pp	LOW	PAPER	236974	hard	Qualification Final	+0.034
27	Xiyu Wang vs Polina Kudermetova Qual	Polina Kudermetova	45.0%	42.0%	42¢	+3.0pp	LOW	PAPER	180	hard	Qualification Final	+0.030
28	Lulu Sun vs Claire Liu Qual	Lulu Sun	41.4%	39.0%	39¢	+2.4pp	LOW	PAPER	212	clay	Qualifying Final	+0.024
29	Jaime Faria vs Lukas Neumayer Qual	Jaime Faria	51.3%	49.0%	49¢	+2.3pp	LOW	PAPER	14642	clay	Qualifying Final	+0.023
30	Victoria Mboko vs Leylah Fernandez	Leylah Fernandez	41.2%	39.0%	39¢	+2.2pp	LOW	PAPER	30891	clay	Quarterfinal	+0.022
31	Susan Bandecchi vs Viktoria Hruncakova Qual	Viktoria Hruncakova	45.0%	43.0%	43¢	+2.0pp	LOW	SKIP	78	clay	Qualifying Final	+0.020
32	Tommy Paul vs Daniel Altmaier	Tommy Paul	68.1%	69.0%	69¢	-0.9pp	LOW	SKIP	103040	hard	Quarterfinal	-0.009
33	Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Aleksandar Kovacevic	Camilo Ugo Carabelli	70.1%	71.0%	71¢	-0.9pp	LOW	SKIP	14427	clay	Quarterfinal	-0.009
34	Learner Tien vs Alex Michelsen	Learner Tien	49.7%	50.0%	50¢	-0.3pp	LOW	SKIP	19010	hard	Quarterfinal	-0.003

#	Player	Stat	PP line	Our proj	Edge %	Side	Tier	Opp	Surface	Demon	Payout
1	Luciano Darderi🟨 WARM	Aces	2.5	6.36	+154.4%	MORE	LOW	Alex de Minaur	clay	—	0.5x
2	Alexander Bublik🧊 COLD	Total Tie Breaks	0.5	0.12	+75.4%	LESS	LOW	Arthur Rinderknech	clay	—	1.0x
3	Alex Michelsen🧊 COLD	Aces	3.5	6.11	+74.6%	MORE	LOW	Learner Tien	clay	—	0.5x
4	Aleksandar Kovacevic🧊 COLD	Aces	3.5	5.59	+59.8%	MORE	LOW	Camilo Ugo Carabelli	clay	—	0.5x
5	Leylah Fernandez🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	3.0	4.55	+51.5%	MORE	LOW	Victoria Mboko	clay	—	1.0x
6	Yasmine Kabbaj	Total Games Won	8.0	10.28	+28.5%	MORE	LOW	Jil Teichmann	clay	—	0.5x
7	Arthur Rinderknech	Aces	8.5	6.23	+26.6%	LESS	LOW	Alexander Bublik	clay	—	0.5x
8	Aleksandar Kovacevic🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	11.5	8.47	+26.4%	LESS	LOW	Camilo Ugo Carabelli	clay	—	0.5x
9	Jil Teichmann🧊 COLD	Total Games	19.5	24.51	+25.7%	MORE	LOW	Yasmine Kabbaj	clay	—	0.5x
10	Camilo Ugo Carabelli	Break Points Won	3.0	3.70	+23.2%	MORE	LOW	Aleksandar Kovacevic	clay	—	1.0x
11	Yasmine Kabbaj	Double Faults	3.5	4.24	+21.0%	MORE	LOW	Jil Teichmann	clay	—	0.5x
12	Daniel Altmaier	Total Games Won	12.0	9.62	+19.9%	LESS	LOW	Tommy Paul	clay	—	0.5x
13	Rebecca Sramkova	Total Games	20.5	24.57	+19.9%	MORE	LOW	Maria Carle	clay	—	0.5x
14	Aliaksandra Sasnovich	Total Games	20.5	24.34	+18.7%	MORE	LOW	Marina Bassols Ribera	clay	—	0.5x
15	Ashlyn Krueger	Total Games	20.5	24.09	+17.5%	MORE	LOW	Mary Stoiana	clay	—	0.5x
16	Roman Safiullin🟨 WARM	Total Games	21.5	25.19	+17.1%	MORE	LOW	Tom Gentzsch	clay	—	0.5x
17	Pablo Llamas Ruiz🟨 WARM	Total Games	21.5	25.18	+17.1%	MORE	LOW	Vilius Gaubas	clay	—	0.5x
18	Leandro Riedi🟨 WARM	Total Games	21.5	25.16	+17.0%	MORE	LOW	Pierre-Hugues Herbert	clay	—	0.5x
19	Lukas Neumayer🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	12.5	10.37	+17.0%	LESS	LOW	Jaime Faria	clay	—	1.0x
20	Borna Gojo🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	12.5	10.38	+17.0%	LESS	LOW	Jurij Rodionov	clay	—	1.0x
21	Vilius Gaubas	Total Games Won	12.0	10.06	+16.1%	LESS	LOW	Pablo Llamas Ruiz	clay	—	1.0x
22	Emilio Nava	Total Games	21.5	24.94	+16.0%	MORE	LOW	Pedro Martinez	clay	—	0.5x
23	Jurij Rodionov🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	12.5	10.54	+15.6%	LESS	LOW	Borna Gojo	clay	—	1.0x
24	Victoria Mboko🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	4.5	5.20	+15.6%	MORE	LOW	Leylah Fernandez	clay	—	1.0x
25	Jaime Faria🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	12.5	10.58	+15.4%	LESS	LOW	Lukas Neumayer	clay	—	1.0x
26	Emma Navarro⏳ RTRN	Break Points Won	4.5	5.17	+14.9%	MORE	LOW	Shuai Zhang	clay	—	1.0x
27	Marina Bassols Ribera🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	9.5	10.91	+14.8%	MORE	LOW	Aliaksandra Sasnovich	clay	—	1.0x
28	Emma Navarro⏳ RTRN	Aces	2.5	2.85	+14.1%	MORE	LOW	Shuai Zhang	clay	—	0.5x
29	Aliaksandra Sasnovich	Break Points Won	5.5	4.73	+14.0%	LESS	LOW	Marina Bassols Ribera	clay	—	1.0x
30	Hugo Dellien⏳ RTRN	Total Games	21.5	24.49	+13.9%	MORE	LOW	Roberto Carballes Baena	clay	—	0.5x
31	Linda Fruhvirtova🧊 COLD	Total Games	21.5	24.49	+13.9%	MORE	LOW	Harmony Tan	clay	—	0.5x
32	Anhelina Kalinina🟨 WARM	Total Games	21.5	24.42	+13.6%	MORE	LOW	Anna Bondar	clay	—	0.5x
33	Claire Liu🟨 WARM	Total Games	21.5	24.30	+13.0%	MORE	LOW	Lulu Sun	clay	—	0.5x
34	Jil Teichmann🧊 COLD	Break Points Won	5.5	4.79	+12.9%	LESS	LOW	Yasmine Kabbaj	clay	—	1.0x
35	Roberto Carballes Baena⏳ RTRN	Total Games Won	11.5	10.05	+12.6%	LESS	LOW	Hugo Dellien	clay	—	1.0x
36	Roman Safiullin🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	12.5	10.95	+12.4%	LESS	LOW	Tom Gentzsch	clay	—	1.0x
37	Learner Tien🧊 COLD	Total Games	22.5	25.28	+12.3%	MORE	LOW	Alex Michelsen	clay	—	0.5x
38	Jaime Faria🟨 WARM	Total Games	22.5	25.22	+12.1%	MORE	LOW	Lukas Neumayer	clay	—	0.5x
39	Darwin Blanch🟨 WARM	Total Games	22.5	25.17	+11.9%	MORE	LOW	Luka Pavlovic	clay	—	0.5x
40	Susan Bandecchi🟨 WARM	Total Games	21.5	24.03	+11.8%	MORE	LOW	Viktoria Hruncakova	clay	—	0.5x
41	Aleksandar Kovacevic🧊 COLD	Break Points Won	2.5	2.74	+9.5%	MORE	LOW	Camilo Ugo Carabelli	clay	—	1.0x
42	Alexander Bublik🧊 COLD	Aces	6.5	5.95	+8.4%	LESS	LOW	Arthur Rinderknech	clay	—	0.5x
43	Alina Korneeva🧊 COLD	Total Games	21.5	23.23	+8.0%	MORE	LOW	Julia Riera	clay	—	0.5x
44	Lucia Bronzetti	Total Games	21.5	23.08	+7.4%	MORE	LOW	Katarina Zavatska	clay	—	0.5x
45	Shuai Zhang🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	10.0	10.72	+7.2%	MORE	LOW	Emma Navarro	clay	—	0.5x
46	Kyrian Jacquet⏳ RTRN	Total Games	23.5	25.17	+7.1%	MORE	LOW	Felix Gill	clay	—	0.5x
47	Borna Gojo🟨 WARM	Total Games	23.5	25.12	+6.9%	MORE	LOW	Jurij Rodionov	clay	—	0.5x
48	Julia Riera🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	5.0	5.34	+6.8%	MORE	LOW	Alina Korneeva	clay	—	1.0x
49	Victoria Mboko🟨 WARM	Double Faults	4.5	4.24	+5.9%	LESS	LOW	Leylah Fernandez	clay	—	1.0x
50	Tom Gentzsch🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	9.5	10.05	+5.8%	MORE	LOW	Roman Safiullin	clay	—	1.0x
51	Mary Stoiana🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	10.5	10.95	+4.3%	MORE	LOW	Ashlyn Krueger	clay	—	1.0x
52	Alexander Bublik🧊 COLD	Total Games	23.5	24.49	+4.2%	MORE	LOW	Arthur Rinderknech	clay	—	0.5x
53	Camilo Ugo Carabelli	Total Games Won	12.5	12.10	+3.2%	LESS	LOW	Aleksandar Kovacevic	clay	—	0.5x

Kalshi tennis — 2 picks · $4.00 staked

Day 1 - paper only, grade EOD before scaling · locked 2026-05-21T13:10:45.965796+00:00

#	Match	Pick	Our P	Ask	Edge	Tier	Surface	Stake	Status	P&L
1	Coleman Wong vs Juan Carlos Prado Angelo	Coleman Wong	45.0%	22¢	23.0pp	ELITE	clay	$2.00	OPEN	+0.00
2	Leandro Riedi vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert	Pierre-Hugues Herbert	45.0%	27¢	18.0pp	ELITE	hard	$2.00	OPEN	+0.00

PrizePicks tennis — 2 picks · $2.00 staked

Day 1 - paper only, grade EOD before scaling · locked 2026-05-21T13:10:45.902879+00:00

#	Player	Stat	Line	Our proj	Side	Edge	Tier	Surface	Stake	Status	P&L
1	Leandro Riedi	Total Games	21.5	25.16	MORE	17.0%	ELITE	clay	$1.00	OPEN	+0.00
2	Shuai Zhang	Total Games Won	10.0	10.72	MORE	7.2%	MED	clay	$1.00	OPEN	+0.00

Polymarket = retail/crypto sentiment. We can't bet there from CA, but the divergence vs Kalshi (sharp) reveals where the public is loading up. Generated 2026-05-21T06:10:58 · flagged threshold = ±3.0pp · 1 flagged futures / 0 flagged matches.

Grand-slam futures · ANY 2026 Slam (Kalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM vs Polymarket per-slam aggregate)

Polymarket "any-slam" probability computed naively as 1 - product(1 - p_slam). Positive divergence = public (Polymarket) more bullish than sharp (Kalshi). Sorted by |divergence|.

Player	Sharp (Kalshi)	Public (Poly)	Δ	Poly per-slam
Novak Djokovic · exact	12.5%	18.6%	+6.1pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Fre 6%, Wim 10%, US 4%
Lorenzo Musetti · exact	4.5%	1.6%	-2.9pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 0%, Wim 1%, US 1%
Ben Shelton · exact	4.5%	7.2%	+2.7pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Fre 1%, Wim 3%, US 4%
Alexander Zverev · exact	12.0%	14.5%	+2.5pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Fre 7%, Wim 4%, US 4%
Daniil Medvedev · exact	8.0%	5.8%	-2.2pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 2%, Wim 2%, US 2%
Alex de Minaur · exact	3.0%	1.4%	-1.6pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 1%, Wim 1%
Felix Auger-Aliassime · exact	2.0%	0.5%	-1.5pp · SHARP HIGHER	Wim 1%
Karen Khachanov · exact	2.0%	0.7%	-1.3pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 0%, Wim 1%
Jannik Sinner · exact	94.0%	95.1%	+1.1pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Fre 70%, Wim 66%, US 52%
Alexander Bublik · exact	3.0%	1.9%	-1.1pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 0%, Wim 0%, US 1%
Jack Draper · exact	4.5%	5.5%	+1.0pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Fre 0%, Wim 3%, US 3%
Frances Tiafoe · exact	0.5%	1.4%	+0.9pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Fre 0%, Wim 0%, US 1%
Taylor Fritz · exact	4.5%	5.0%	+0.5pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Fre 1%, Wim 3%, US 2%
Casper Ruud · exact	3.5%	3.4%	-0.1pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 3%, Wim 0%

Per-match overlaps

No active per-match overlaps right now (Polymarket tennis volume concentrates in Grand Slam futures).

Per-stat-type MAE (n_graded=17)

Bar width = MAE (lower = better). "INSUFFICIENT" = need more graded picks.

Total Games

n=4

Ours

Us 6.45
PP 3.25
INSUFFICIENT_N

Total Games Won

n=12

Ours

Us 4.93
PP 4.50
NULL

Total Tie Breaks

n=1

Ours

Us 0.25
PP 0.50
INSUFFICIENT_N

Per-tier MAE

Bar width = MAE (lower = better). "INSUFFICIENT" = need more graded picks.

ELITE

n=16

Ours

Us 4.94
PP 3.75
NULL

MED

n=0

Ours

Us —
PP —
INSUFFICIENT_N

STRONG

n=1

Ours

Us 6.23
PP 7.50
INSUFFICIENT_N

[!]

No AAR available yet.
Expected: ~/.claude/projects/.../memory/aar_tennis_<date>.md

[MV]

No actionable PP line movement yet.
Expected: pp_line_movement_tennis_2026-05-21.csv. Needs at least 2 PP snapshots in pp_snapshots_tennis/.

ATP top 50

Rk	Player	Country	Pts	ELO overall	ELO clay	ELO grass	ELO hard
1	Jannik Sinner	ITA	14350	2175	1857	1695	2062
2	Carlos Alcaraz	ESP	12960	2070	1867	1717	1956
3	Alexander Zverev	GER	5805	1961	1816	1594	1863
4	Novak Djokovic	SRB	4700	1955	1738	1636	1846
5	Felix Auger Aliassime	CAN	4050	1864	1605	1517	1803
6	Ben Shelton	USA	4030	1848	1683	1561	1765
7	Taylor Fritz	USA	3770	1826	1581	1722	1749
8	Alex De Minaur	AUS	3755	1847	1652	1590	1806
9	Daniil Medvedev	RUS	3460	1878	1641	1585	1845
10	Lorenzo Musetti	ITA	3415	1828	1756	1607	1723
11	Alexander Bublik	KAZ	3355	1803	1724	1569	1703
12	Flavio Cobolli	ITA	2750	1796	1720	1557	1655
13	Jiri Lehecka	CZE	2715	1837	1647	1574	1754
14	Andrey Rublev	RUS	2590	1762	1658	1516	1683
15	Karen Khachanov	RUS	2220	1691	1586	1567	1639
16	Valentin Vacherot	MON	2147	1810	1702	1467	1738
17	Arthur Fils	FRA	2130	1912	1762	1546	1771
18	Tommy Paul	USA	1975	1842	1748	1587	1743
19	Cameron Norrie	GBR	1918	1776	1658	1529	1682
20	Luciano Darderi	ITA	1890	1714	1767	1466	1466
21	Learner Tien	USA	1870	1800	1466	1506	1789
22	Frances Tiafoe	USA	1865	1771	1604	1488	1719
23	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	ESP	1820	1756	1572	1545	1703
24	Arthur Rinderknech	FRA	1736	1713	1566	1530	1631
25	Casper Ruud	NOR	1735	1792	1744	1502	1685
26	Tomas Martin Etcheverry	ARG	1660	1785	1693	1456	1636
27	Francisco Cerundolo	ARG	1620	1801	1726	1426	1698
28	Jakub Mensik	CZE	1600	1795	1589	1497	1747
29	Joao Fonseca	BRA	1435	1818	1638	1495	1795
30	Corentin Moutet	FRA	1413	1706	1600	1574	1640
31	Tallon Griekspoor	NED	1360	1681	1575	1564	1645
32	Brandon Nakashima	USA	1295	1706	1570	1590	1660
33	Ugo Humbert	FRA	1280	1712	1451	1517	1697
34	Rafael Jodar	ESP	1273	1874	1714	—	1765
35	Alejandro Tabilo	CHI	1248	1786	1696	1575	1637
36	Alexander Blockx	BEL	1200	1820	1689	1508	1713
37	Denis Shapovalov	CAN	1170	1690	1498	1472	1698
38	Jaume Munar	ESP	1155	1695	1563	1508	1635
39	Zizou Bergs	BEL	1140	1705	1570	1521	1631
40	Holger Rune	DEN	1110	1744	1663	1515	1710
41	Tomas Machac	CZE	1100	1737	1592	1500	1682
42	Alex Michelsen	USA	1090	1715	1488	1538	1702
43	Sebastian Korda	USA	1050	1806	1537	1556	1757
44	Mariano Navone	ARG	1046	1718	1716	1460	1507
45	Adrian Mannarino	FRA	1035	1589	1390	1584	1569
46	Gabriel Diallo	CAN	1000	1651	1554	1576	1615
47	Marin Cilic	CRO	980	1710	1539	1611	1635
48	Ethan Quinn	USA	977	1731	1594	1509	1683
49	Fabian Marozsan	HUN	975	1672	1566	1450	1608
50	Jack Draper	GBR	960	1806	1634	1594	1750

WTA top 50

Rk	Player	Country	Pts	ELO overall	ELO clay	ELO grass	ELO hard
1	Aryna Sabalenka	BLR	10110	2115	1808	1588	2045
2	Elena Rybakina	KAZ	8555	2063	1760	1580	1972
3	Iga Swiatek	POL	6948	1924	1780	1658	1852
4	Coco Gauff	USA	6749	1957	1787	1519	1871
5	Jessica Pegula	USA	6136	1997	1701	1583	1901
6	Amanda Anisimova	USA	5985	1916	1561	1638	1822
7	Mirra Andreeva	RUS	4181	1932	1800	1513	1797
8	Jasmine Paolini	ITA	3722	1815	1707	1585	1741
9	Victoria Mboko	CAN	3531	1936	1704	1515	1891
10	Elina Svitolina	UKR	3530	1922	1727	1550	1824
11	Karolina Muchova	CZE	3318	1951	1597	1494	1869
12	Belinda Bencic	SUI	3090	1898	1584	1561	1831
13	Linda Noskova	CZE	2999	1881	1589	1583	1763
14	Ekaterina Alexandrova	RUS	2669	1747	1593	1584	1662
15	Marta Kostyuk	UKR	2507	1924	1757	1449	1755
16	Naomi Osaka	JPN	2341	1819	1628	1514	1734
17	Iva Jovic	USA	2235	1829	1663	1601	1759
18	Clara Tauson	DEN	2030	1746	1560	1520	1679
19	Madison Keys	USA	1946	1836	1706	1558	1766
20	Diana Shnaider	RUS	1946	1782	1647	1565	1686
21	Liudmila Samsonova	RUS	1895	1697	1604	1619	1566
22	Elise Mertens	BEL	1858	1802	1580	1581	1714
23	Leylah Fernandez	CAN	1851	1790	1590	1546	1679
24	Anna Kalinskaya	RUS	1758	1784	1538	1546	1721
25	Hailey Baptiste	USA	1747	1785	1662	1488	1667
26	Marie Bouzkova	CZE	1651	1773	1699	1476	1648
27	Sorana Cirstea	ROU	1595	1866	1612	1429	1797
28	Jaqueline Cristian	ROU	1437	1770	1635	1432	1698
29	Ann Li	USA	1435	1745	1638	1478	1647
30	Emma Raducanu	GBR	1430	1753	1570	1577	1658
31	Cristina Bucsa	ESP	1406	1738	1475	1514	1684
32	Qinwen Zheng	CHN	1405	1819	1737	1497	1737
33	Xin Yu Wang	CHN	1401	1735	1546	1591	1616
34	Maya Joint	AUS	1380	1711	1688	1579	1641
35	Emma Navarro	USA	1377	1680	1578	1590	1613
36	Jelena Ostapenko	LAT	1369	1723	1632	1534	1621
37	Sara Bejlek	CZE	1360	1832	1797	1486	1653
38	Anastasia Potapova	RUS	1355	1787	1690	1484	1640
39	Katerina Siniakova	CZE	1342	1777	1549	1578	1693
40	Janice Tjen	INA	1317	1817	1662	—	1785
41	Elisabetta Cocciaretto	ITA	1290	1800	1584	1577	1689
42	Alexandra Eala	PHI	1285	1786	1478	1600	1748
43	Lois Boisson	FRA	1268	1791	1811	1483	1554
44	Marketa Vondrousova	CZE	1263	1728	1606	1578	1609
45	Magdalena Frech	POL	1263	1649	1534	1434	1613
46	Laura Siegemund	GER	1250	1680	1535	1541	1592
47	Maria Sakkari	GRE	1238	1707	1563	1486	1658
48	Tereza Valentova	CZE	1231	1845	1746	1517	1788
49	Peyton Stearns	USA	1211	1710	1636	1471	1621
50	Mccartney Kessler	USA	1204	1754	1516	1583	1688

Source	DB / file	Last pulled	Age	Rows	Status
Kalshi KXATPMATCH	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-21T13:08:46.796393+00:00	2m	1792	fresh
Kalshi KXWTAMATCH	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-21T13:08:46.796393+00:00	2m	1688	fresh
Kalshi KXFRENCHOPEN	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-21T13:08:46.796393+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXFOPENMENSINGLE	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-21T13:08:46.796393+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-21T13:08:46.796393+00:00	2m	14	fresh
Kalshi KXUSOPEN	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-21T13:08:46.796393+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATPSETWINNER	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-21T13:08:46.796393+00:00	2m	3562	fresh
Kalshi KXATPTOTALSETS	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-21T13:08:46.796393+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATPSETSWEEP	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-21T13:08:46.796393+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATPGAMESPREAD	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-21T13:08:46.796393+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATPEXACTMATCH	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-21T13:08:46.796393+00:00	2m	1060	fresh
Kalshi KXWTADOUBLES	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-21T13:08:46.796393+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATP1RANK	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-21T13:08:46.796393+00:00	2m	16	fresh
elo last computed	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-21T13:08:43+00:00	2m	20051	fresh
rankings last pulled	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-21T13:08:46+00:00	2m	3745	fresh
rankings atp latest date	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-04	421.18h	—	stale
rankings wta latest date	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-04	421.18h	—	stale
mirror atp schedule	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-21T13:10:19.805277+00:00	0m	312	fresh
h2h last computed	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-17T10:11:57.514615+00:00	98.98h	—	stale
h2h n pairs	tennis.sqlite	190184	missing	—	missing
last player db run	tennis.sqlite	1779369037	missing	—	missing
results last_run	tennis_results.sqlite	[2026-05-21T13:10:22.033130+00:00] 2026-05-21T13:10:20.143665+00:00; dates=['20260520']; rows=540; resolved=524	missing	—	missing
pp_edges CSV	pp_edges_tennis_2026-05-21.csv	2026-05-21T13:10:44.421839+00:00	0m	—	fresh
kalshi edges JSON	tennis_kalshi_edges_2026-05-21.json	2026-05-21T13:10:42.057447+00:00	0m	—	fresh
paper trades PP	paper_trades_pp_tennis_2026-05-21.json	2026-05-21T13:10:46.436042+00:00	0m	—	fresh
paper trades Kalshi	paper_trades_kalshi_tennis_2026-05-21.json	2026-05-21T13:10:46.915268+00:00	0m	—	fresh
daily payload	daily_tennis_2026-05-21.json	2026-05-21T13:10:47.566535+00:00	0m	—	fresh
PP movement	pp_line_movement_tennis_2026-05-21.csv	2026-05-21T13:10:47.111362+00:00	0m	—	fresh
PP calibration	pp_calibration_tennis.json	2026-05-21T13:10:47.050987+00:00	0m	—	fresh