Tennis EdgeBoard - 2026-05-26

Kalshi KXATPMATCH 2m · 1832rKalshi KXWTAMATCH 2m · 1686rKalshi KXFRENCHOPEN 2mKalshi KXFOPENMENSINGLE 2mKalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM 2m · 14rKalshi KXUSOPEN 2mKalshi KXATPSETWINNER 2m · 3734rKalshi KXATPTOTALSETS 2mKalshi KXATPSETSWEEP 2m · 1rKalshi KXATPGAMESPREAD 2mKalshi KXATPEXACTMATCH 2m · 1612rKalshi KXWTADOUBLES 2m · 64rKalshi KXATP1RANK 2m · 16relo last computed 2m · 20051rrankings last pulled 2m · 7538rrankings atp latest date 37.2hrankings wta latest date 37.2hmirror atp schedule 0m · 162rh2h last computed 9dh2h n pairs missinglast player db run missingresults last_run missingpp_edges CSV 0mkalshi edges JSON 0mpaper trades PP 0mpaper trades Kalshi 0mdaily payload 0mPP movement 0mPP calibration 0m

Matches today

scheduled

ELITE edges

across Kalshi + PP

STRONG edges

tier 2

MED edges

tier 3

Paper locks

Kalshi + PP

Real Money YTD

-$10.00

paper-gate restored

Qualifying skipped

filtered out today

Last refresh

13:10

2026-05-26 UTC

🏆 Best Bet (main-draw)

No main-draw Kalshi pick survived qualifying filter today.

🎯 Safest (P ≥ 65%)

Anhelina Kalinina

Diane Parry vs Anhelina Kalinina · Round 1 clay · LOW

71%

Heavy main-draw favorite · SKIP

Edge +0.9pp
Ask 70¢

💎 Biggest Payout (ELITE)

No ELITE main-draw longshot today.

#	Match	Tournament	Round	Surface	Start	ELO A	ELO B	ELO diff	Kalshi event
1	Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 09:10	1575	1610	-35	KXATPMATCH-26MAY25GRIARN
2	Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 09:10	1575	1610	-35	KXATPMATCH-26MAY25GRIARN
3	Thomas Faurel vs Valentin Vacherot	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 11:15	1505	1702	-197	KXATPMATCH-26MAY24FAUVAC
4	Thomas Faurel vs Valentin Vacherot	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 11:15	1505	1702	-197	KXATPMATCH-26MAY24FAUVAC
5	Martin Landaluce vs Juan Carlos Prado Angelo	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 11:40	1528	1693	-166	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY26LANPRA-3
6	Facundo Diaz Acosta vs ?	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 11:40	1680	—	—
7	Martin Landaluce vs Juan Carlos Prado Angelo	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 11:40	1528	1693	-166	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY26LANPRA-3
8	Facundo Diaz Acosta vs ?	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 11:40	1680	—	—
9	Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 12:10	1681	1600	+81	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY26KOPMOU-3
10	Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 12:10	1681	1600	+81	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY26KOPMOU-3
11	Cameron Norrie vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 12:25	1658	1766	-107	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY25NORVAL-1
12	Cameron Norrie vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 12:25	1658	1766	-107	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY25NORVAL-1
13	Sebastian Baez vs Roman Andres Burruchaga	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 12:30	1611	1791	-180	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY25BAEBUR-1
14	Sebastian Baez vs Roman Andres Burruchaga	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 12:30	1611	1791	-180	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY25BAEBUR-1
15	Dalma Galfi vs Mayar Sherif	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 12:50	1692	1722	-31
16	Dalma Galfi vs Mayar Sherif	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 12:50	1692	1722	-31
17	Laura Siegemund vs Naomi Osaka	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 12:55	1535	1628	-93	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY24SIEOSA
18	Laura Siegemund vs Naomi Osaka	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 12:55	1535	1628	-93	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY24SIEOSA
19	Cristian Garin vs Learner Tien	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 13:05	1701	1466	+235	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY26GARTIE-3
20	Cristian Garin vs Learner Tien	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 13:05	1701	1466	+235	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY26GARTIE-3
21	Coco Gauff vs Taylor Townsend	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 13:15	1787	1464	+322	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY24GAUTOW
22	Coco Gauff vs Taylor Townsend	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 13:15	1787	1464	+322	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY24GAUTOW
23	Linda Fruhvirtova vs Elsa Jacquemot	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 13:20	1462	1552	-90	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY24FRUJAC
24	Antonia Ruzic vs Ashlyn Krueger	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 13:20	1556	1511	+44	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY24RUZKRU
25	Linda Fruhvirtova vs Elsa Jacquemot	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 13:20	1462	1552	-90	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY24FRUJAC
26	Antonia Ruzic vs Ashlyn Krueger	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 13:20	1556	1511	+44	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY24RUZKRU
27	Alina Korneeva vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 13:30	1466	1584	-118	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY24KORCOC
28	Alexander Bublik vs ?	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 13:30	1724	—	—	KXATPMATCH-26MAY25BUBSTR
29	Alina Korneeva vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 13:30	1466	1584	-118	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY24KORCOC
30	Alexander Bublik vs ?	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 13:30	1724	—	—	KXATPMATCH-26MAY25BUBSTR
31	Hanne Vandewinkel vs Madison Keys	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 14:00	1650	1706	-56	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY24VANKEY
32	Anna Kalinskaya vs Lois Boisson	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 14:00	1538	1811	-273	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY24KALBOI
33	Jacob Fearnley vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 14:00	1582	1693	-111	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY25FEACER-1
34	Hanne Vandewinkel vs Madison Keys	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 14:00	1650	1706	-56	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY24VANKEY
35	Anna Kalinskaya vs Lois Boisson	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 14:00	1538	1811	-273	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY24KALBOI
36	Jacob Fearnley vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 14:00	1582	1693	-111	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY25FEACER-1
37	Victoria Mboko vs Nikola Bartunkova	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 14:30	1704	1707	-3	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY24MBOBAR
38	Elena Pridankina vs Oleksandra Oliynykova	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 14:30	1715	1831	-115	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY24PRIOLI
39	Anhelina Kalinina vs Diane Parry	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 14:30	1767	1490	+277	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY24KALPAR
40	Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Comesana	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 14:30	1594	1578	+16	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY25QUICOM-2
41	Jaime Faria vs Denis Shapovalov	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 14:30	1660	1498	+162	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY26FARSHA-3
42	Victoria Mboko vs Nikola Bartunkova	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 14:30	1704	1707	-3	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY24MBOBAR
43	Elena Pridankina vs Oleksandra Oliynykova	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 14:30	1715	1831	-115	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY24PRIOLI
44	Anhelina Kalinina vs Diane Parry	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 14:30	1767	1490	+277	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY24KALPAR
45	Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Comesana	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 14:30	1594	1578	+16	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY25QUICOM-2
46	Jaime Faria vs Denis Shapovalov	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 14:30	1660	1498	+162	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY26FARSHA-3
47	Simona Waltert vs Katerina Siniakova	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 15:00	1792	1549	+243	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY24WALSIN
48	Simona Waltert vs Katerina Siniakova	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 15:00	1792	1549	+243	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY24WALSIN
49	Kimberly Birrell vs Jessica Pegula	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 15:30	1457	1701	-244	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY24BIRPEG
50	? vs Daniel Altmaier	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 15:30	—	1610	—	KXATPMATCH-26MAY25AUGALT
51	Kimberly Birrell vs Jessica Pegula	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 15:30	1457	1701	-244	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY24BIRPEG
52	? vs Daniel Altmaier	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 15:30	—	1610	—	KXATPMATCH-26MAY25AUGALT
53	Sebastian Ofner vs Luciano Darderi	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 16:00	1606	1767	-161	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY25OFNDAR-2
54	Sebastian Ofner vs Luciano Darderi	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 16:00	1606	1767	-161	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY25OFNDAR-2
55	Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 18:15	1857	1588	+269	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY26SINTAB-3
56	Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 18:15	1857	1588	+269	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY26SINTAB-3

#	Match	Our pick	Our P	Mkt P	Ask	Edge	Tier	Decision	Vol 24h	Surface	Round	EV/$
1	Iga Swiatek vs Sara Bejlek	Sara Bejlek	51.0%	6.0%	6¢	+45.0pp	LOW	PAPER	1988	clay	Round 2	+0.450
2	Amanda Anisimova vs Julia Grabher	Julia Grabher	63.9%	19.0%	19¢	+44.9pp	LOW	PAPER	263	clay	Round 2	+0.449
3	Zachary Svajda vs Adam Walton	Adam Walton	53.1%	93.0%	93¢	-39.9pp	LOW	PAPER	0	clay	Round 2	-0.399
4	Hugo Gaston vs Francisco Cerundolo	Hugo Gaston	47.8%	11.0%	11¢	+36.8pp	LOW	PAPER	383	hard	Round Of 64	+0.368
5	Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi	Tallon Griekspoor	43.5%	8.0%	8¢	+35.5pp	LOW	PAPER	1004327	clay	Round 1	+0.355
6	Elina Svitolina vs Kaitlin Quevedo	Kaitlin Quevedo	44.1%	9.0%	9¢	+35.1pp	LOW	PAPER	1031	clay	Round 2	+0.351
7	Marina Bassols Ribera vs Mirra Andreeva	Marina Bassols Ribera	40.6%	6.0%	6¢	+34.6pp	LOW	PAPER	1177	clay	Round 2	+0.346
8	Luciano Darderi vs Sebastian Ofner	Sebastian Ofner	60.3%	26.0%	26¢	+34.3pp	LOW	PAPER	35057	hard	Round Of 128	+0.343
9	Caty McNally vs Belinda Bencic	Caty McNally	59.3%	26.0%	26¢	+33.3pp	LOW	PAPER	262	clay	Round 2	+0.333
10	Katerina Siniakova vs Simona Waltert	Simona Waltert	66.7%	34.0%	34¢	+32.7pp	LOW	PAPER	706	clay	Round 1	+0.327
11	Rafael Jodar vs James Duckworth	James Duckworth	38.5%	6.0%	6¢	+32.5pp	LOW	PAPER	13622	hard	Round Of 64	+0.325
12	Kamilla Rakhimova vs Karolina Muchova	Kamilla Rakhimova	42.7%	11.0%	11¢	+31.7pp	LOW	PAPER	278	clay	Round 2	+0.317
13	Francesca Jones vs Marie Bouzkova	Francesca Jones	55.4%	24.0%	24¢	+31.4pp	LOW	PAPER	739	clay	Round 2	+0.314
14	Susan Bandecchi vs Daria Kasatkina	Susan Bandecchi	44.4%	13.0%	13¢	+31.4pp	LOW	PAPER	259	clay	Round 2	+0.314
15	Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Jacob Fearnley	Jacob Fearnley	54.2%	23.0%	23¢	+31.2pp	LOW	PAPER	5498	hard	Round Of 128	+0.312
16	Elena Rybakina vs Yuliia Starodubtseva	Yuliia Starodubtseva	40.0%	10.0%	10¢	+29.9pp	LOW	PAPER	1442	clay	Round 2	+0.300
17	Thomas Faurel vs Valentin Vacherot	Thomas Faurel	36.5%	7.0%	7¢	+29.5pp	LOW	PAPER	342706	clay	Round 1	+0.295
18	Jessica Pegula vs Kimberly Birrell	Kimberly Birrell	33.3%	4.0%	4¢	+29.3pp	LOW	SKIP	29069	clay	Round 1	+0.293
19	Maja Chwalinska vs Elise Mertens	Maja Chwalinska	64.1%	35.0%	35¢	+29.1pp	LOW	PAPER	2498	clay	Round 2	+0.291
20	Madison Keys vs Hanne Vandewinkel	Hanne Vandewinkel	42.0%	13.0%	13¢	+29.0pp	LOW	PAPER	4760	clay	Round 1	+0.290
21	Marta Kostyuk vs Katie Volynets	Katie Volynets	42.1%	15.0%	15¢	+27.1pp	LOW	PAPER	1618	clay	Round 2	+0.271
22	Cameron Norrie vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	Cameron Norrie	64.8%	38.0%	38¢	+26.8pp	LOW	PAPER	373774	hard	Round Of 128	+0.268
23	Victoria Mboko vs Nikola Bartunkova	Nikola Bartunkova	50.2%	25.0%	25¢	+25.2pp	LOW	PAPER	6968	clay	Round 1	+0.252
24	Jasmine Paolini vs Solana Sierra	Solana Sierra	60.7%	36.0%	36¢	+24.7pp	LOW	PAPER	483	clay	Round 2	+0.247
25	Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen	Nishesh Basavareddy	60.6%	36.0%	36¢	+24.6pp	LOW	PAPER	4456	clay	Round 2	+0.246
26	Lois Boisson vs Anna Kalinskaya	Lois Boisson	62.5%	38.0%	38¢	+24.5pp	LOW	PAPER	13170	clay	Round 1	+0.245
27	Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu	Yibing Wu	53.2%	29.0%	29¢	+24.2pp	LOW	PAPER	1134	hard	Round Of 64	+0.242
28	Daniel Altmaier vs Felix Auger-Aliassime	Daniel Altmaier	49.9%	26.0%	26¢	+23.9pp	LOW	PAPER	30718	clay	Round 1	+0.239
29	Magda Linette vs Jelena Ostapenko	Magda Linette	47.3%	24.0%	24¢	+23.3pp	LOW	PAPER	106	clay	Round 2	+0.233
30	Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang	Xiyu Wang	56.4%	34.0%	34¢	+22.4pp	LOW	PAPER	1009	hard	Round Of 64	+0.224
31	Sorana Cirstea vs Eva Lys	Eva Lys	44.2%	24.0%	24¢	+20.2pp	LOW	PAPER	1406	clay	Round 2	+0.202
32	Anastasia Potapova vs Katie Boulter	Katie Boulter	41.1%	21.0%	21¢	+20.1pp	LOW	PAPER	91	clay	Round 2	+0.201
33	Brandon Nakashima vs Luca Van Assche	Luca Van Assche	52.9%	33.0%	33¢	+19.9pp	LOW	PAPER	865	hard	Round Of 64	+0.199
34	Alexander Zverev vs Tomas Machac	Tomas Machac	34.9%	15.0%	15¢	+19.9pp	LOW	PAPER	11063	hard	Round Of 64	+0.199
35	Francisco Comesana vs Ethan Quinn	Ethan Quinn	62.7%	43.0%	43¢	+19.7pp	LOW	PAPER	10323	hard	Round Of 128	+0.197
36	Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Sebastian Baez	Roman Andres Burruchaga	41.7%	23.0%	23¢	+18.7pp	LOW	PAPER	206919	hard	Round Of 128	+0.187
37	Coco Gauff vs Taylor Townsend	Taylor Townsend	30.0%	12.0%	12¢	+18.0pp	LOW	PAPER	221074	clay	Round 1	+0.180
38	Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe	Frances Tiafoe	63.2%	46.0%	46¢	+17.2pp	LOW	PAPER	16375	hard	Round Of 64	+0.172
39	McCartney Kessler vs Diana Shnaider	McCartney Kessler	39.9%	23.0%	23¢	+16.9pp	LOW	PAPER	1259	clay	Round 2	+0.169
40	Novak Djokovic vs Valentin Royer	Valentin Royer	28.7%	12.0%	12¢	+16.8pp	LOW	PAPER	30330	hard	Round Of 64	+0.168
41	Naomi Osaka vs Laura Siegemund	Laura Siegemund	42.6%	26.0%	26¢	+16.6pp	LOW	PAPER	102142	clay	Round 1	+0.166
42	Ben Shelton vs Raphael Collignon	Raphael Collignon	52.6%	37.0%	37¢	+15.7pp	LOW	PAPER	18679	hard	Round Of 64	+0.156
43	Andrey Rublev vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli	Camilo Ugo Carabelli	38.0%	23.0%	23¢	+15.1pp	LOW	PAPER	499	hard	Round Of 64	+0.150
44	Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff	Jan-Lennard Struff	38.6%	24.0%	24¢	+14.6pp	LOW	PAPER	67075	clay	Round 1	+0.146
45	Alex de Minaur vs Alexander Blockx	Alexander Blockx	52.5%	38.0%	38¢	+14.6pp	LOW	PAPER	61411	clay	Round 2	+0.145
46	Pablo Carreno Busta vs Thanasi Kokkinakis	Thanasi Kokkinakis	48.3%	34.0%	34¢	+14.3pp	LOW	PAPER	4576	hard	Round Of 64	+0.143
47	Karen Khachanov vs Marco Trungelliti	Marco Trungelliti	37.1%	23.0%	23¢	+14.1pp	LOW	PAPER	52314	hard	Round Of 64	+0.141
48	Casper Ruud vs Hamad Medjedovic	Hamad Medjedovic	44.6%	31.0%	31¢	+13.6pp	LOW	PAPER	6051	hard	Round Of 64	+0.136
49	Lorenzo Sonego vs Tommy Paul	Lorenzo Sonego	29.7%	17.0%	17¢	+12.7pp	LOW	PAPER	3944	clay	Round 2	+0.127
50	Denis Shapovalov vs Jaime Faria	Denis Shapovalov	53.5%	41.0%	41¢	+12.5pp	LOW	PAPER	41114	hard	Round Of 128	+0.125
51	Martin Landaluce vs Juan Carlos Prado Angelo	Juan Carlos Prado Angelo	36.2%	24.0%	24¢	+12.2pp	LOW	PAPER	177486	hard	Round Of 128	+0.122
52	Magdalena Frech vs Jil Teichmann	Jil Teichmann	54.0%	42.0%	42¢	+12.1pp	LOW	PAPER	249	clay	Round 2	+0.121
53	Antonia Ruzic vs Ashlyn Krueger	Antonia Ruzic	49.4%	38.0%	38¢	+11.4pp	LOW	PAPER	4196	clay	Round 1	+0.114
54	Peyton Stearns vs Daria Snigur	Daria Snigur	44.2%	35.0%	35¢	+9.2pp	LOW	PAPER	1340	clay	Round 2	+0.093
55	Jakub Mensik vs Mariano Navone	Jakub Mensik	66.2%	57.0%	57¢	+9.2pp	LOW	PAPER	969	hard	Round Of 64	+0.092
56	Miomir Kecmanovic vs Nuno Borges	Nuno Borges	46.1%	37.0%	37¢	+9.1pp	LOW	PAPER	4985	hard	Round Of 64	+0.091
57	Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Elena Pridankina	Elena Pridankina	41.0%	34.0%	34¢	+7.0pp	LOW	PAPER	3403	clay	Round 1	+0.070
58	Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	Thiago Agustin Tirante	59.3%	53.0%	53¢	+6.3pp	LOW	PAPER	5736	clay	Round 2	+0.063
59	Xinyu Wang vs Tamara Korpatsch	Xinyu Wang	57.6%	53.0%	53¢	+4.6pp	LOW	PAPER	791	hard	Round Of 64	+0.046
60	Jesper De Jong vs Federico Cina	Jesper De Jong	62.4%	58.0%	58¢	+4.4pp	LOW	PAPER	6242	clay	Round 2	+0.044
61	Dino Prizmic vs Joao Fonseca	Joao Fonseca	58.3%	54.0%	54¢	+4.3pp	LOW	PAPER	14741	hard	Round Of 64	+0.043
62	Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet	Corentin Moutet	48.2%	44.0%	44¢	+4.2pp	LOW	PAPER	179769	hard	Round Of 128	+0.042
63	Arthur Rinderknech vs Matteo Berrettini	Matteo Berrettini	54.6%	51.0%	51¢	+3.6pp	LOW	PAPER	1935	hard	Round Of 64	+0.036
64	Camila Osorio vs Yulia Putintseva	Yulia Putintseva	47.9%	45.0%	45¢	+2.9pp	LOW	PAPER	16	clay	Round 2	+0.029
65	Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs Alina Korneeva	Alina Korneeva	37.9%	35.0%	35¢	+2.9pp	LOW	PAPER	5579	clay	Round 1	+0.029
66	Quentin Halys vs Ugo Humbert	Quentin Halys	44.7%	42.0%	42¢	+2.7pp	LOW	PAPER	671	hard	Round Of 64	+0.027
67	Learner Tien vs Cristian Garin	Learner Tien	70.0%	68.0%	68¢	+2.0pp	LOW	PAPER	440073	hard	Round Of 128	+0.020
68	Emma Navarro vs Iva Jovic	Emma Navarro	43.1%	45.0%	45¢	-1.9pp	LOW	SKIP	210	clay	Round 2	-0.019
69	Linda Fruhvirtova vs Elsa Jacquemot	Elsa Jacquemot	56.7%	55.0%	55¢	+1.7pp	LOW	SKIP	17704	clay	Round 1	+0.017
70	Alycia Parks vs Viktorija Golubic	Alycia Parks	51.6%	50.0%	50¢	+1.6pp	LOW	SKIP	2080	clay	Round 2	+0.016
71	Diane Parry vs Anhelina Kalinina	Anhelina Kalinina	70.9%	70.0%	70¢	+0.9pp	LOW	SKIP	5840	clay	Round 1	+0.009

#	Player	Stat	PP line	Our proj	Edge %	Side	Tier	Opp	Surface	Demon	Payout
1	Kimberly Birrell	Total Games Won	5.0	9.00	+80.0%	MORE	LOW	Jessica Pegula	clay	—	0.5x
2	Alexander Zverev🟨 WARM	Total Tie Breaks	0.5	0.12	+75.7%	LESS	LOW	Tomas Machac	clay	—	1.0x
3	Luciano Darderi🟨 WARM	Total Tie Breaks	0.5	0.12	+75.3%	LESS	LOW	Sebastian Ofner	clay	—	1.0x
4	Jaime Faria🟨 WARM	Total Tie Breaks	0.5	0.12	+75.3%	LESS	LOW	Denis Shapovalov	clay	—	1.0x
5	Marina Bassols Ribera🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	5.5	9.63	+75.2%	MORE	LOW	Mirra Andreeva	clay	—	0.5x
6	Alex Michelsen🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	20.5	9.34	+54.5%	LESS	LOW	Nishesh Basavareddy	clay	—	0.5x
7	Susan Bandecchi🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	6.5	10.04	+54.4%	MORE	LOW	Daria Kasatkina	clay	—	0.5x
8	Miomir Kecmanovic🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	20.5	9.42	+54.0%	LESS	LOW	Nuno Borges	clay	—	0.5x
9	Ugo Humbert🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	20.5	9.46	+53.8%	LESS	LOW	Quentin Halys	clay	—	0.5x
10	Karen Khachanov🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	19.5	9.08	+53.4%	LESS	LOW	Marco Trungelliti	clay	—	0.5x
11	Federico Cina🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	19.5	9.17	+53.0%	LESS	LOW	Jesper De Jong	clay	—	0.5x
12	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	Total Games Won	20.5	9.66	+52.9%	LESS	LOW	Thiago Agustin Tirante	clay	—	0.5x
13	Arthur Rinderknech	Total Games Won	20.5	9.76	+52.4%	LESS	LOW	Matteo Berrettini	clay	—	1.0x
14	Frances Tiafoe⏳ RTRN	Total Games Won	20.5	9.85	+52.0%	LESS	LOW	Hubert Hurkacz	clay	—	0.5x
15	Jakub Mensik🟨 WARM	Total Tie Breaks	0.5	0.25	+50.8%	LESS	LOW	Mariano Navone	clay	—	1.0x
16	Federico Cina🧊 COLD	Total Tie Breaks	0.5	0.25	+50.6%	LESS	LOW	Jesper De Jong	clay	—	1.0x
17	Karen Khachanov🧊 COLD	Total Tie Breaks	0.5	0.25	+50.5%	LESS	LOW	Marco Trungelliti	clay	—	1.0x
18	Jakub Mensik🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	19.5	9.68	+50.4%	LESS	LOW	Mariano Navone	clay	—	0.5x
19	Andrey Rublev🟨 WARM	Total Tie Breaks	0.5	0.25	+50.2%	LESS	LOW	Camilo Ugo Carabelli	clay	—	1.0x
20	Miomir Kecmanovic🧊 COLD	Total Tie Breaks	0.5	0.25	+50.1%	LESS	LOW	Nuno Borges	clay	—	1.0x
21	Joao Fonseca🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	19.5	9.77	+49.9%	LESS	LOW	Dino Prizmic	clay	—	0.5x
22	Alex de Minaur	Total Games Won	20.5	10.30	+49.8%	LESS	LOW	Alexander Blockx	clay	—	0.5x
23	Francisco Comesana🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	19.5	9.87	+49.4%	LESS	LOW	Ethan Quinn	clay	—	0.5x
24	Brandon Nakashima	Total Games Won	20.5	10.43	+49.1%	LESS	LOW	Luca Van Assche	clay	—	1.0x
25	Felix Auger-Aliassime🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	20.5	10.45	+49.0%	LESS	LOW	Daniel Altmaier	clay	—	0.5x
26	Denis Shapovalov	Total Games Won	18.5	9.49	+48.7%	LESS	LOW	Jaime Faria	clay	—	0.5x
27	Alexander Bublik🧊 COLD	Aces	11.5	5.96	+48.1%	LESS	LOW	Jan-Lennard Struff	clay	—	0.5x
28	Quentin Halys🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	19.5	10.50	+46.2%	LESS	LOW	Ugo Humbert	clay	—	0.5x
29	Ethan Quinn	Total Games Won	19.5	10.54	+45.9%	LESS	LOW	Francisco Comesana	clay	—	0.5x
30	Sebastian Ofner	Total Games Won	17.5	9.48	+45.8%	LESS	LOW	Luciano Darderi	clay	—	0.5x
31	Thanasi Kokkinakis⏳ RTRN	Total Games Won	18.5	10.02	+45.8%	LESS	LOW	Pablo Carreno Busta	clay	—	0.5x
32	Hubert Hurkacz🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	20.5	11.13	+45.7%	LESS	LOW	Frances Tiafoe	clay	—	0.5x
33	Matteo Berrettini	Total Games Won	20.5	11.26	+45.1%	LESS	LOW	Arthur Rinderknech	clay	—	1.0x
34	Thiago Agustin Tirante🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	20.5	11.29	+44.9%	LESS	LOW	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	clay	—	0.5x
35	Pablo Carreno Busta🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	19.5	11.03	+43.5%	LESS	LOW	Thanasi Kokkinakis	clay	—	0.5x
36	Luca Van Assche	Total Games Won	18.5	10.51	+43.2%	LESS	LOW	Brandon Nakashima	clay	—	1.0x
37	Jesper De Jong	Total Games Won	19.5	11.30	+42.0%	LESS	LOW	Federico Cina	clay	—	0.5x
38	Luciano Darderi🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	20.0	11.60	+42.0%	LESS	LOW	Sebastian Ofner	clay	—	0.5x
39	Jaime Faria🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	19.5	11.59	+40.6%	LESS	LOW	Denis Shapovalov	clay	—	0.5x
40	Elina Svitolina	Total Games	17.5	24.55	+40.3%	MORE	LOW	Kaitlin Quevedo	clay	—	0.5x
41	Nishesh Basavareddy🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	18.5	11.15	+39.8%	LESS	LOW	Alex Michelsen	clay	—	0.5x
42	Daniel Altmaier	Total Games Won	17.5	10.56	+39.7%	LESS	LOW	Felix Auger-Aliassime	clay	—	0.5x
43	Dino Prizmic🔥 HOT	Total Games Won	19.5	11.82	+39.4%	LESS	LOW	Joao Fonseca	clay	—	0.5x
44	Alexander Zverev🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	19.5	11.84	+39.3%	LESS	LOW	Tomas Machac	clay	—	0.5x
45	Matteo Berrettini	Total Games	40.5	24.91	+38.5%	LESS	LOW	Arthur Rinderknech	clay	—	2.0x
46	Ben Shelton🟨 WARM	Total Games	40.5	25.16	+37.9%	LESS	LOW	Raphael Collignon	clay	—	0.5x
47	Jan-Lennard Struff🧊 COLD	Aces	9.5	5.94	+37.5%	LESS	LOW	Alexander Bublik	clay	—	0.5x
48	Tomas Machac	Total Games Won	14.5	9.10	+37.2%	LESS	LOW	Alexander Zverev	clay	—	0.5x
49	Thiago Agustin Tirante🟨 WARM	Total Games	39.5	24.87	+37.0%	LESS	LOW	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	clay	—	0.5x
50	Mirra Andreeva🟨 WARM	Total Games	17.5	23.90	+36.6%	MORE	LOW	Marina Bassols Ribera	clay	—	0.5x
51	Ugo Humbert🧊 COLD	Total Games	39.5	25.09	+36.5%	LESS	LOW	Quentin Halys	clay	—	0.5x
52	Hubert Hurkacz🟨 WARM	Total Games	39.5	25.12	+36.4%	LESS	LOW	Frances Tiafoe	clay	—	0.5x
53	Jacob Fearnley⏳ RTRN	Total Games Won	15.0	9.78	+34.8%	LESS	LOW	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	clay	—	0.5x
54	Jaime Faria🟨 WARM	Total Games	37.5	24.52	+34.6%	LESS	LOW	Denis Shapovalov	clay	—	0.5x
55	Jakub Mensik🟨 WARM	Total Games	37.5	24.59	+34.4%	LESS	LOW	Mariano Navone	clay	—	0.5x
56	Federico Cina🧊 COLD	Total Games	37.5	24.62	+34.4%	LESS	LOW	Jesper De Jong	clay	—	0.5x
57	Francisco Comesana🧊 COLD	Total Games	38.0	25.14	+33.9%	LESS	LOW	Ethan Quinn	clay	—	0.5x
58	Alex Michelsen🧊 COLD	Total Games	37.5	24.97	+33.4%	LESS	LOW	Nishesh Basavareddy	clay	—	0.5x
59	Flavio Cobolli🟨 WARM	Total Games	37.5	24.97	+33.4%	LESS	LOW	Yibing Wu	clay	—	1.0x
60	Joao Fonseca🟨 WARM	Total Games	37.0	24.71	+33.2%	LESS	LOW	Dino Prizmic	clay	—	0.5x
61	Miomir Kecmanovic🧊 COLD	Total Games	37.5	25.10	+33.1%	LESS	LOW	Nuno Borges	clay	—	0.5x
62	Andrey Rublev🟨 WARM	Total Games	37.5	25.10	+33.1%	LESS	LOW	Camilo Ugo Carabelli	clay	—	0.5x
63	Brandon Nakashima	Total Games	37.5	25.13	+33.0%	LESS	LOW	Luca Van Assche	clay	—	0.5x
64	Casper Ruud🟨 WARM	Total Games	37.5	25.18	+32.9%	LESS	LOW	Hamad Medjedovic	clay	—	0.5x
65	Alexander Bublik🧊 COLD	Total Games	36.5	24.54	+32.8%	LESS	LOW	Jan-Lennard Struff	clay	—	0.5x
66	Jessica Pegula🟨 WARM	Total Games	17.0	22.57	+32.8%	MORE	LOW	Kimberly Birrell	clay	—	0.5x
67	Jacob Fearnley⏳ RTRN	Total Games Won	14.5	9.78	+32.5%	LESS	LOW	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	clay	—	0.5x
68	Flavio Cobolli🟨 WARM	Total Games	37.0	24.97	+32.5%	LESS	LOW	Yibing Wu	clay	—	1.0x
69	Karolina Muchova⏳ RTRN	Total Games	18.5	24.44	+32.1%	MORE	LOW	Kamilla Rakhimova	clay	—	0.5x
70	Luciano Darderi🟨 WARM	Total Games	36.0	24.50	+31.9%	LESS	LOW	Sebastian Ofner	clay	—	0.5x
71	Felix Auger-Aliassime🟨 WARM	Total Games	37.0	25.20	+31.9%	LESS	LOW	Daniel Altmaier	clay	—	0.5x
72	Daria Kasatkina🟨 WARM	Total Games	18.5	24.33	+31.5%	MORE	LOW	Susan Bandecchi	clay	—	0.5x
73	Pablo Carreno Busta🟨 WARM	Total Games	36.5	25.12	+31.2%	LESS	LOW	Thanasi Kokkinakis	clay	—	0.5x
74	Alexander Zverev🟨 WARM	Total Games	34.5	23.78	+31.1%	LESS	LOW	Tomas Machac	clay	—	0.5x
75	Tommy Paul🟨 WARM	Total Sets	3.5	2.42	+30.9%	LESS	LOW	Lorenzo Sonego	clay	—	1.0x
76	Karen Khachanov🧊 COLD	Total Games	35.5	24.64	+30.6%	LESS	LOW	Marco Trungelliti	clay	—	0.5x
77	Marco Trungelliti	Total Games Won	16.5	11.46	+30.6%	LESS	LOW	Karen Khachanov	clay	—	0.5x
78	Alexander Zverev🟨 WARM	Total Sets	3.5	2.43	+30.5%	LESS	LOW	Tomas Machac	clay	—	1.0x
79	Katie Volynets	Total Games Won	7.5	9.78	+30.4%	MORE	LOW	Marta Kostyuk	clay	—	0.5x
80	Tommy Paul🟨 WARM	Total Games	32.5	23.07	+29.0%	LESS	LOW	Lorenzo Sonego	clay	—	0.5x
81	Diane Parry🧊 COLD	Aces	3.5	2.52	+28.1%	LESS	LOW	Anhelina Kalinina	clay	—	0.5x
82	Madison Keys⏳ RTRN	Total Games	19.0	24.30	+27.9%	MORE	LOW	Hanne Vandewinkel	clay	—	0.5x
83	Clement Tabur🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	7.0	8.94	+27.7%	MORE	LOW	Jannik Sinner	clay	—	0.5x
84	Elena Rybakina🟨 WARM	Total Games	18.5	23.57	+27.4%	MORE	LOW	Yuliia Starodubtseva	clay	—	0.5x
85	Juan Manuel Cerundolo🟨 WARM	Total Games	34.0	24.91	+26.7%	LESS	LOW	Jacob Fearnley	clay	—	0.5x
86	Denis Shapovalov	Aces	8.5	6.25	+26.5%	LESS	LOW	Jaime Faria	clay	—	0.5x
87	Francisco Comesana🧊 COLD	Total Tie Breaks	0.5	0.37	+25.5%	LESS	LOW	Ethan Quinn	clay	—	1.0x
88	Brandon Nakashima	Total Tie Breaks	0.5	0.37	+25.4%	LESS	LOW	Luca Van Assche	clay	—	1.0x
89	Sorana Cirstea🟨 WARM	Total Games	19.5	24.44	+25.3%	MORE	LOW	Eva Lys	clay	—	1.0x
90	Valentin Royer🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	13.5	10.10	+25.2%	LESS	LOW	Novak Djokovic	clay	—	0.5x
91	Francisco Cerundolo🟨 WARM	Total Games	31.5	23.78	+24.5%	LESS	LOW	Hugo Gaston	clay	—	0.5x
92	Felix Auger-Aliassime🟨 WARM	Aces	8.5	6.42	+24.4%	LESS	LOW	Daniel Altmaier	clay	—	0.5x
93	Marta Kostyuk🟨 WARM	Total Games	19.5	24.01	+23.1%	MORE	LOW	Katie Volynets	clay	—	1.0x
94	Anna Kalinskaya	Break Points Won	5.0	3.86	+22.9%	LESS	LOW	Lois Boisson	clay	—	1.0x
95	Sorana Cirstea🟨 WARM	Total Games	20.0	24.44	+22.2%	MORE	LOW	Eva Lys	clay	—	1.0x
96	Francesca Jones	Total Games Won	9.0	10.95	+21.6%	MORE	LOW	Marie Bouzkova	clay	—	0.5x
97	Novak Djokovic⏳ RTRN	Total Games	32.0	25.12	+21.5%	LESS	LOW	Valentin Royer	clay	—	0.5x
98	Marie Bouzkova🟨 WARM	Total Games	20.0	24.28	+21.4%	MORE	LOW	Francesca Jones	clay	—	1.0x
99	Katerina Siniakova🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	5.0	3.97	+20.5%	LESS	LOW	Simona Waltert	clay	—	1.0x
100	Alina Korneeva🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	11.5	9.15	+20.4%	LESS	LOW	Elisabetta Cocciaretto	clay	—	0.5x
101	Diane Parry🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	10.5	8.38	+20.2%	LESS	LOW	Anhelina Kalinina	clay	—	0.5x
102	Diane Parry🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	10.5	8.38	+20.2%	LESS	LOW	Anhelina Kalinina	clay	—	0.5x
103	Simona Waltert🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	10.0	12.01	+20.1%	MORE	LOW	Katerina Siniakova	clay	—	0.5x
104	Jelena Ostapenko	Total Games	20.5	24.43	+19.2%	MORE	LOW	Magda Linette	clay	—	0.5x
105	Diana Shnaider	Total Games	20.0	23.83	+19.1%	MORE	LOW	McCartney Kessler	clay	—	0.5x
106	Amanda Anisimova⏳ RTRN	Total Games	19.5	23.21	+19.1%	MORE	LOW	Julia Grabher	clay	—	0.5x
107	Marie Bouzkova🟨 WARM	Total Games	20.5	24.28	+18.4%	MORE	LOW	Francesca Jones	clay	—	1.0x
108	Belinda Bencic🟨 WARM	Total Games	20.5	23.98	+17.0%	MORE	LOW	Caty McNally	clay	—	0.5x
109	Nikola Bartunkova	Total Games Won	9.0	10.52	+16.9%	MORE	LOW	Victoria Mboko	clay	—	0.5x
110	Alina Korneeva🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	11.0	9.15	+16.8%	LESS	LOW	Elisabetta Cocciaretto	clay	—	0.5x
111	Sebastian Ofner	Aces	7.5	6.24	+16.7%	LESS	LOW	Luciano Darderi	clay	—	0.5x
112	Camila Osorio	Total Games	21.0	24.48	+16.6%	MORE	LOW	Yulia Putintseva	clay	—	1.0x
113	Rafael Jodar🟨 WARM	Total Games	30.0	25.08	+16.4%	LESS	LOW	James Duckworth	clay	—	0.5x
114	Oleksandra Oliynykova	Total Games	20.5	23.77	+15.9%	MORE	LOW	Elena Pridankina	clay	—	0.5x
115	Anastasia Potapova🟨 WARM	Total Games	20.5	23.75	+15.9%	MORE	LOW	Katie Boulter	clay	—	0.5x
116	Eva Lys🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	8.5	9.83	+15.6%	MORE	LOW	Sorana Cirstea	clay	—	0.5x
117	Peyton Stearns	Total Games	21.0	24.16	+15.1%	MORE	LOW	Daria Snigur	clay	—	1.0x
118	Simona Waltert🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	10.5	12.01	+14.4%	MORE	LOW	Katerina Siniakova	clay	—	0.5x
119	Camila Osorio	Total Games	21.5	24.48	+13.9%	MORE	LOW	Yulia Putintseva	clay	—	1.0x
120	Hailey Baptiste🟨 WARM	Total Games	21.5	24.48	+13.8%	MORE	LOW	Xiyu Wang	clay	—	0.5x
121	Alycia Parks🟨 WARM	Total Games	21.5	24.35	+13.2%	MORE	LOW	Viktorija Golubic	clay	—	0.5x
122	Elisabetta Cocciaretto	Total Games	21.0	23.75	+13.1%	MORE	LOW	Alina Korneeva	clay	—	0.5x
123	Jasmine Paolini🧊 COLD	Total Games	21.5	24.20	+12.6%	MORE	LOW	Solana Sierra	clay	—	0.5x
124	Peyton Stearns	Total Games	21.5	24.16	+12.4%	MORE	LOW	Daria Snigur	clay	—	1.0x
125	Elena Pridankina🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	11.0	9.64	+12.3%	LESS	LOW	Oleksandra Oliynykova	clay	—	0.5x
126	Magdalena Frech	Total Games	21.5	24.08	+12.0%	MORE	LOW	Jil Teichmann	clay	—	0.5x
127	Elise Mertens	Total Games	21.0	23.27	+10.8%	MORE	LOW	Maja Chwalinska	clay	—	1.0x
128	Katerina Siniakova🟨 WARM	Total Games	20.5	22.53	+9.9%	MORE	LOW	Simona Waltert	clay	—	0.5x
129	Jannik Sinner🟨 WARM	Total Games	25.5	23.24	+8.9%	LESS	LOW	Clement Tabur	clay	—	0.5x
130	Jannik Sinner🟨 WARM	Aces	6.5	5.95	+8.4%	LESS	LOW	Clement Tabur	clay	—	0.5x
131	Xiyu Wang🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	11.5	10.53	+8.4%	LESS	LOW	Hailey Baptiste	clay	—	0.5x
132	Anhelina Kalinina🟨 WARM	Total Games	20.5	22.21	+8.3%	MORE	LOW	Diane Parry	clay	—	0.5x
133	Elise Mertens	Total Games	21.5	23.27	+8.2%	MORE	LOW	Maja Chwalinska	clay	—	1.0x
134	Jessica Pegula🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	5.0	5.39	+7.8%	MORE	LOW	Kimberly Birrell	clay	—	1.0x
135	Jannik Sinner🟨 WARM	Total Games	25.0	23.24	+7.0%	LESS	LOW	Clement Tabur	clay	—	0.5x
136	Oleksandra Oliynykova	Break Points Won	5.5	5.19	+5.6%	LESS	LOW	Elena Pridankina	clay	—	1.0x
137	Elisabetta Cocciaretto	Break Points Won	5.5	5.20	+5.5%	LESS	LOW	Alina Korneeva	clay	—	1.0x
138	Daria Snigur🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	10.5	9.97	+5.0%	LESS	LOW	Peyton Stearns	clay	—	0.5x
139	James Duckworth⏳ RTRN	Total Games Won	10.5	10.01	+4.6%	LESS	LOW	Rafael Jodar	clay	—	0.5x
140	Solana Sierra🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	11.5	11.12	+3.3%	LESS	LOW	Jasmine Paolini	clay	—	0.5x
141	Anna Kalinskaya	Total Games	21.5	22.16	+3.1%	MORE	LOW	Lois Boisson	clay	—	0.5x
142	Maja Chwalinska⏳ RTRN	Total Games Won	11.5	11.82	+2.8%	MORE	LOW	Elise Mertens	clay	—	0.5x
143	Madison Keys⏳ RTRN	Break Points Won	5.0	5.09	+1.9%	MORE	LOW	Hanne Vandewinkel	clay	—	1.0x
144	Lois Boisson🧊 COLD	Aces	2.5	2.54	+1.5%	MORE	LOW	Anna Kalinskaya	clay	—	0.5x
145	Victoria Mboko🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	5.0	4.93	+1.4%	LESS	LOW	Nikola Bartunkova	clay	—	1.0x
146	Anhelina Kalinina🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	5.5	5.43	+1.3%	LESS	LOW	Diane Parry	clay	—	1.0x
147	Lois Boisson🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	11.5	11.51	+0.1%	MORE	LOW	Anna Kalinskaya	clay	—	0.5x

Kalshi tennis — 4 picks · $8.00 staked

Day 1 - paper only, grade EOD before scaling · locked 2026-05-26T13:10:40.605093+00:00

#	Match	Pick	Our P	Ask	Edge	Tier	Surface	Stake	Status	P&L
1	Caty McNally vs Belinda Bencic	Caty McNally	59.3%	26¢	33.3pp	ELITE	clay	$2.00	OPEN	+0.00
2	Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu	Yibing Wu	53.2%	29¢	24.2pp	ELITE	hard	$2.00	OPEN	+0.00
3	Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang	Xiyu Wang	56.4%	34¢	22.4pp	ELITE	hard	$2.00	OPEN	+0.00
4	Xinyu Wang vs Tamara Korpatsch	Xinyu Wang	57.6%	53¢	4.6pp	STRONG	hard	$2.00	OPEN	+0.00

PrizePicks tennis — 1 picks · $1.00 staked

Day 1 - paper only, grade EOD before scaling · locked 2026-05-26T13:10:40.546100+00:00

#	Player	Stat	Line	Our proj	Side	Edge	Tier	Surface	Stake	Status	P&L
1	Xiyu Wang	Total Games Won	11.5	10.53	LESS	8.4%	MED	clay	$1.00	OPEN	+0.00

Polymarket = retail/crypto sentiment. We can't bet there from CA, but the divergence vs Kalshi (sharp) reveals where the public is loading up. Generated 2026-05-26T06:10:48 · flagged threshold = ±3.0pp · 2 flagged futures / 0 flagged matches.

Grand-slam futures · ANY 2026 Slam (Kalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM vs Polymarket per-slam aggregate)

Polymarket "any-slam" probability computed naively as 1 - product(1 - p_slam). Positive divergence = public (Polymarket) more bullish than sharp (Kalshi). Sorted by |divergence|.

Player	Sharp (Kalshi)	Public (Poly)	Δ	Poly per-slam
Novak Djokovic · exact	11.0%	19.3%	+8.3pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Fre 6%, Wim 9%, US 6%
Daniil Medvedev · exact	10.0%	5.4%	-4.6pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 0%, Wim 2%, US 4%
Lorenzo Musetti · exact	4.0%	1.5%	-2.5pp · SHARP HIGHER	Wim 1%, US 1%
Karen Khachanov · exact	3.0%	0.8%	-2.2pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 0%, Wim 1%
Felix Auger-Aliassime · exact	2.5%	0.6%	-1.9pp · SHARP HIGHER	Wim 1%
Casper Ruud · exact	4.0%	2.3%	-1.7pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 2%, Wim 0%
Alexander Bublik · exact	3.0%	1.5%	-1.5pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 0%, Wim 0%, US 1%
Jannik Sinner · exact	94.5%	95.5%	+1.0pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Fre 72%, Wim 65%, US 53%
Taylor Fritz · exact	5.0%	4.2%	-0.8pp · SHARP HIGHER	Wim 3%, US 1%
Alexander Zverev · exact	15.5%	14.7%	-0.8pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 8%, Wim 4%, US 3%
Alex de Minaur · exact	2.0%	1.2%	-0.8pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 0%, Wim 1%
Ben Shelton · exact	4.5%	5.3%	+0.8pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Fre 1%, Wim 3%, US 2%
Frances Tiafoe · exact	0.5%	0.9%	+0.4pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Fre 0%, Wim 0%, US 1%
Jack Draper · exact	5.0%	5.0%	-0.0pp · SHARP HIGHER	Wim 3%, US 2%

Per-match overlaps

No active per-match overlaps right now (Polymarket tennis volume concentrates in Grand Slam futures).

Per-stat-type MAE (n_graded=18)

Bar width = MAE (lower = better). "INSUFFICIENT" = need more graded picks.

Total Games

n=4

Ours

Us 6.45
PP 3.25
INSUFFICIENT_N

Total Games Won

n=13

Ours

Us 5.11
PP 4.96
NULL

Total Tie Breaks

n=1

Ours

Us 0.25
PP 0.50
INSUFFICIENT_N

Per-tier MAE

Bar width = MAE (lower = better). "INSUFFICIENT" = need more graded picks.

ELITE

n=16

Ours

Us 4.94
PP 3.75
NULL

MED

n=0

Ours

Us —
PP —
INSUFFICIENT_N

STRONG

n=2

Ours

Us 6.75
PP 9.00
INSUFFICIENT_N

[!]

No AAR available yet.
Expected: ~/.claude/projects/.../memory/aar_tennis_<date>.md

[MV]

No actionable PP line movement yet.
Expected: pp_line_movement_tennis_2026-05-26.csv. Needs at least 2 PP snapshots in pp_snapshots_tennis/.

ATP top 50

Rk	Player	Country	Pts	ELO overall	ELO clay	ELO grass	ELO hard
1	Jannik Sinner	ITA	14750	2175	1857	1695	2062
2	Carlos Alcaraz	ESP	11960	2070	1867	1717	1956
3	Alexander Zverev	GER	5705	1961	1816	1594	1863
4	Novak Djokovic	SRB	4460	1955	1738	1636	1846
5	Ben Shelton	USA	4070	1848	1683	1561	1765
6	Felix Auger Aliassime	CAN	4050	1864	1605	1517	1803
7	Alex De Minaur	AUS	3855	1847	1652	1590	1806
8	Daniil Medvedev	RUS	3760	1878	1641	1585	1845
9	Taylor Fritz	USA	3720	1826	1581	1722	1749
10	Alexander Bublik	KAZ	3320	1803	1724	1569	1703
11	Lorenzo Musetti	ITA	3115	1828	1756	1607	1723
12	Jiri Lehecka	CZE	2665	1837	1647	1574	1754
13	Andrey Rublev	RUS	2460	1762	1658	1516	1683
14	Flavio Cobolli	ITA	2340	1796	1720	1557	1655
15	Karen Khachanov	RUS	2320	1691	1586	1567	1639
16	Casper Ruud	NOR	2275	1792	1744	1502	1685
17	Luciano Darderi	ITA	2260	1714	1767	1466	1466
18	Learner Tien	USA	2180	1800	1466	1506	1789
19	Valentin Vacherot	MON	2103	1810	1702	1467	1738
20	Arthur Fils	FRA	2040	1912	1762	1546	1771
21	Tommy Paul	USA	1945	1842	1748	1587	1743
22	Frances Tiafoe	USA	1905	1771	1604	1488	1719
23	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	ESP	1860	1756	1572	1545	1703
24	Cameron Norrie	GBR	1785	1776	1658	1529	1682
25	Arthur Rinderknech	FRA	1736	1713	1566	1530	1631
26	Francisco Cerundolo	ARG	1570	1801	1726	1426	1698
27	Jakub Mensik	CZE	1550	1795	1589	1497	1747
28	Tomas Martin Etcheverry	ARG	1510	1785	1693	1456	1636
29	Rafael Jodar	ESP	1461	1874	1714	—	1765
30	Joao Fonseca	BRA	1435	1818	1638	1495	1795
31	Ignacio Buse	PER	1412	1709	1693	1482	1562
32	Ugo Humbert	FRA	1370	1712	1451	1517	1697
33	Tallon Griekspoor	NED	1340	1681	1575	1564	1645
34	Corentin Moutet	FRA	1323	1706	1600	1574	1640
35	Brandon Nakashima	USA	1295	1706	1570	1590	1660
36	Alejandro Tabilo	CHI	1278	1786	1696	1575	1637
37	Alexander Blockx	BEL	1238	1820	1689	1508	1713
38	Mariano Navone	ARG	1215	1718	1716	1460	1507
39	Denis Shapovalov	CAN	1170	1690	1498	1472	1698
40	Zizou Bergs	BEL	1150	1705	1570	1521	1631
41	Jaume Munar	ESP	1145	1695	1563	1508	1635
42	Alex Michelsen	USA	1115	1715	1488	1538	1702
43	Tomas Machac	CZE	1080	1737	1592	1500	1682
44	Holger Rune	DEN	1060	1744	1663	1515	1710
45	Adrian Mannarino	FRA	1037	1589	1390	1584	1569
46	Marin Cilic	CRO	1010	1710	1539	1611	1635
47	Sebastian Korda	USA	1000	1806	1537	1556	1757
48	Miomir Kecmanovic	SRB	980	1607	1483	1500	1595
49	Gabriel Diallo	CAN	975	1651	1554	1576	1615
50	Ethan Quinn	USA	974	1731	1594	1509	1683

WTA top 50

Rk	Player	Country	Pts	ELO overall	ELO clay	ELO grass	ELO hard
1	Aryna Sabalenka	BLR	9960	2115	1808	1588	2045
2	Elena Rybakina	KAZ	8313	2063	1760	1580	1972
3	Iga Swiatek	POL	7273	1924	1780	1658	1852
4	Coco Gauff	USA	6749	1957	1787	1519	1871
5	Jessica Pegula	USA	6286	1997	1701	1583	1901
6	Amanda Anisimova	USA	5958	1916	1561	1638	1822
7	Elina Svitolina	UKR	4315	1922	1727	1550	1824
8	Mirra Andreeva	RUS	4181	1932	1800	1513	1797
9	Victoria Mboko	CAN	3710	1936	1704	1515	1891
10	Karolina Muchova	CZE	3318	1951	1597	1494	1869
11	Belinda Bencic	SUI	3145	1898	1584	1561	1831
12	Linda Noskova	CZE	3054	1881	1589	1583	1763
13	Jasmine Paolini	ITA	2787	1815	1707	1585	1741
14	Ekaterina Alexandrova	RUS	2679	1747	1593	1584	1662
15	Marta Kostyuk	UKR	2387	1924	1757	1449	1755
16	Naomi Osaka	JPN	2341	1819	1628	1514	1734
17	Iva Jovic	USA	2306	1829	1663	1601	1759
18	Sorana Cirstea	ROU	1985	1866	1612	1429	1797
19	Madison Keys	USA	1962	1836	1706	1558	1766
20	Clara Tauson	DEN	1920	1746	1560	1520	1679
21	Elise Mertens	BEL	1858	1802	1580	1581	1714
22	Leylah Fernandez	CAN	1844	1790	1590	1546	1679
23	Diana Shnaider	RUS	1796	1782	1647	1565	1686
24	Anna Kalinskaya	RUS	1792	1784	1538	1546	1721
25	Emma Navarro	USA	1719	1680	1578	1590	1613
26	Hailey Baptiste	USA	1683	1785	1662	1488	1667
27	Liudmila Samsonova	RUS	1635	1697	1604	1619	1566
28	Marie Bouzkova	CZE	1631	1773	1699	1476	1648
29	Ann Li	USA	1601	1745	1638	1478	1647
30	Anastasia Potapova	RUS	1470	1787	1690	1484	1640
31	Jelena Ostapenko	LAT	1464	1723	1632	1534	1621
32	Jaqueline Cristian	ROU	1414	1770	1635	1432	1698
33	Cristina Bucsa	ESP	1406	1738	1475	1514	1684
34	Xin Yu Wang	CHN	1371	1735	1546	1591	1616
35	Sara Bejlek	CZE	1369	1832	1797	1486	1653
36	Katerina Siniakova	CZE	1362	1777	1549	1578	1693
37	Alexandra Eala	PHI	1340	1786	1478	1600	1748
38	Elisabetta Cocciaretto	ITA	1320	1800	1584	1577	1689
39	Emma Raducanu	GBR	1301	1753	1570	1577	1658
40	Janice Tjen	INA	1292	1817	1662	—	1785
41	Barbora Krejcikova	CZE	1271	1715	1480	1606	1647
42	Tereza Valentova	CZE	1265	1845	1746	1517	1788
43	Lois Boisson	FRA	1264	1791	1811	1483	1554
44	Marketa Vondrousova	CZE	1263	1728	1606	1578	1609
45	Dayana Yastremska	UKR	1246	1695	1588	1575	1594
46	Magdalena Frech	POL	1238	1649	1534	1434	1613
47	Laura Siegemund	GER	1230	1680	1535	1541	1592
48	Mccartney Kessler	USA	1229	1754	1516	1583	1688
49	Maria Sakkari	GRE	1208	1707	1563	1486	1658
50	Jessica Bouzas Maneiro	ESP	1200	1658	1643	1524	1578

Source	DB / file	Last pulled	Age	Rows	Status
Kalshi KXATPMATCH	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-26T13:08:27.440189+00:00	2m	1832	fresh
Kalshi KXWTAMATCH	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-26T13:08:27.440189+00:00	2m	1686	fresh
Kalshi KXFRENCHOPEN	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-26T13:08:27.440189+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXFOPENMENSINGLE	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-26T13:08:27.440189+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-26T13:08:27.440189+00:00	2m	14	fresh
Kalshi KXUSOPEN	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-26T13:08:27.440189+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATPSETWINNER	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-26T13:08:27.440189+00:00	2m	3734	fresh
Kalshi KXATPTOTALSETS	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-26T13:08:27.440189+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATPSETSWEEP	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-26T13:08:27.440189+00:00	2m	1	fresh
Kalshi KXATPGAMESPREAD	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-26T13:08:27.440189+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATPEXACTMATCH	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-26T13:08:27.440189+00:00	2m	1612	fresh
Kalshi KXWTADOUBLES	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-26T13:08:27.440189+00:00	2m	64	fresh
Kalshi KXATP1RANK	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-26T13:08:27.440189+00:00	2m	16	fresh
elo last computed	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-26T13:08:24+00:00	2m	20051	fresh
rankings last pulled	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-26T13:08:27+00:00	2m	7538	fresh
rankings atp latest date	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-25	37.18h	—	stale
rankings wta latest date	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-25	37.18h	—	stale
mirror atp schedule	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-26T13:10:05.812017+00:00	0m	162	fresh
h2h last computed	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-17T10:11:57.514615+00:00	218.98h	—	stale
h2h n pairs	tennis.sqlite	190184	missing	—	missing
last player db run	tennis.sqlite	1779801022	missing	—	missing
results last_run	tennis_results.sqlite	[2026-05-26T13:10:08.221237+00:00] 2026-05-26T13:10:06.175377+00:00; dates=['20260525']; rows=632; resolved=606	missing	—	missing
pp_edges CSV	pp_edges_tennis_2026-05-26.csv	2026-05-26T13:10:38.777317+00:00	0m	—	fresh
kalshi edges JSON	tennis_kalshi_edges_2026-05-26.json	2026-05-26T13:10:33.247819+00:00	0m	—	fresh
paper trades PP	paper_trades_pp_tennis_2026-05-26.json	2026-05-26T13:10:41.064279+00:00	0m	—	fresh
paper trades Kalshi	paper_trades_kalshi_tennis_2026-05-26.json	2026-05-26T13:10:41.545818+00:00	0m	—	fresh
daily payload	daily_tennis_2026-05-26.json	2026-05-26T13:10:42.222122+00:00	0m	—	fresh
PP movement	pp_line_movement_tennis_2026-05-26.csv	2026-05-26T13:10:41.751957+00:00	0m	—	fresh
PP calibration	pp_calibration_tennis.json	2026-05-26T13:10:41.680726+00:00	0m	—	fresh