T
Tennis EdgeBoard
ATP + WTA daily edges - Kalshi + PrizePicks - auto-refresh 2m
πŸ’°MoneyπŸ“ŠAccuracyMLBEdgeBoardWCEdgeBoard🎾TennisDAY-2 RESET🏈NFL
Generated
2026-08-12 17:50 UTC
Sources
29
⚠
Day-2 calibration reset

Real-money probe lost 0/4 (-$10.00) on 5/17. Sim was wildly over-confident on qualifying-round picks — 8/8 qualifying edges lost despite avg +35pp model edge.

Qualifying filter now active. Real money gate-locked until 5/30 ($50 paper P&L + MAE <3pp + n≥50 graded). See Calibration & Lessons tab for the full Day-2 AAR.

Kalshi KXATPMATCH 6m · 1916rKalshi KXWTAMATCH 6m · 1948rKalshi KXFRENCHOPEN 6mKalshi KXFOPENMENSINGLE 6mKalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM 6m · 14rKalshi KXUSOPEN 6mKalshi KXATPSETWINNER 6m · 4250rKalshi KXATPTOTALSETS 6mKalshi KXATPSETSWEEP 6m · 1rKalshi KXATPGAMESPREAD 6mKalshi KXATPEXACTMATCH 6m · 4108rKalshi KXWTADOUBLES 6m · 218rKalshi KXATP1RANK 6m · 16relo last computed 52d · 20430rrankings last pulled 58d · 11348rrankings atp latest date 65drankings wta latest date 65dmirror atp schedule 4mh2h last computed 87dh2h n pairs missinglast player db run missingresults last_run missingpp_edges CSV 3mkalshi edges JSON 3mpaper trades PP 0mpaper trades Kalshi 0mdaily payload 0mPP movement 0mPP calibration 0m
Matches today
0
scheduled
ELITE edges
1
across Kalshi + PP
STRONG edges
1
tier 2
MED edges
1
tier 3
Paper locks
1
Kalshi + PP
Real Money YTD
-$10.00
paper-gate restored
Qualifying skipped
28
filtered out today
Last refresh
17:50
2026-08-12 UTC
🏆 Best Bet (main-draw)
Zeynep Sonmez
Daria Kasatkina vs Zeynep Sonmez · Round Of 128 hard · MED
+2.1pp
Our P 45% · Mkt P 43%
Ask 43¢
Vol24 427
🎯 Safest (P ≥ 65%)
Dayana Yastremska
Tatjana Maria vs Dayana Yastremska · Round Of 128 hard · LOW
60%
Heavy main-draw favorite · PAPER
Edge +9.1pp
Ask 51¢
💎 Biggest Payout (ELITE)
No ELITE main-draw longshot today.
[ ]
No matches loaded.
Run python mirror_atp_schedule.py to refresh.
#MatchOur pickOur PMkt PAskEdgeTierDecisionVol 24hSurfaceRoundEV/$
1Elsa Jacquemot vs Rebecca Sramkova QualElsa Jacquemot🧊 COLD45.1%16.0%16¢+29.1ppLOWPAPER202051hardQualification Round 1+0.291
2Liudmila Samsonova vs Yulia PutintsevaYulia Putintseva54.3%29.0%29¢+25.3ppLOWPAPER413hardRound Of 128+0.253
3Alina Korneeva vs Alina Charaeva QualAlina Charaeva🔥 HOT46.8%24.0%24¢+22.8ppLOWPAPER10573hardQualification Round 2+0.228
4Lanlana Tararudee vs Mananchaya Sawangkaew QualMananchaya Sawangkaew🟨 WARM61.6%40.0%40¢+21.6ppLOWPAPER5128hardQualification Round 2+0.216
5Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Miomir KecmanovicCamilo Ugo Carabelli47.3%28.0%28¢+19.3ppLOWPAPER243hardRound Of 128+0.193
6Terence Atmane vs Marton FucsovicsMarton Fucsovics54.2%35.0%35¢+19.2ppLOWPAPER9322hardRound Of 128+0.192
7Tamara Korpatsch vs Maya JointTamara Korpatsch🟨 WARM48.7%30.0%30¢+18.7ppLOWPAPER422hardRound Of 128+0.187
8Nuno Borges vs Thanasi KokkinakisThanasi Kokkinakis⏳ RTRN55.6%37.0%37¢+18.6ppLOWPAPER3491hardRound Of 128+0.186
9Ella Seidel vs Nadia Podoroska QualNadia Podoroska🔥 HOT53.8%36.0%36¢+17.8ppLOWPAPER19022hardQualification Round 1+0.178
10Jacob Fearnley vs Nicolas Mejia QualNicolas Mejia45.0%28.0%28¢+17.0ppLOWPAPER35114hardQualification Round 1+0.170
11Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic QualDusan Lajovic45.0%29.0%29¢+16.0ppLOWPAPER15656hardQualification Round 2+0.160
12Ben Shelton vs Learner TienLearner Tien🟨 WARM50.7%35.0%35¢+15.8ppLOWPAPER201342hardSemifinal+0.157
13Elvina Kalieva vs Oleksandra OliynykovaOleksandra Oliynykova🟨 WARM50.7%35.0%35¢+15.7ppLOWPAPER1728hardRound Of 128+0.157
14Alex Michelsen vs Jesper De JongJesper De Jong35.0%20.0%20¢+15.0ppLOWPAPER2775hardRound Of 128+0.150
15Michael Zheng vs Trevor Svajda QualTrevor Svajda⏳ RTRN45.0%30.0%30¢+15.0ppLOWPAPER4656hardQualification Round 2+0.150
16Mary Stoiana vs Oksana Selekhmeteva QualOksana Selekhmeteva54.3%40.0%40¢+14.3ppLOWPAPER395hardQualification Round 2+0.143
17Marcos Giron vs Henrique Rocha QualHenrique Rocha🟨 WARM45.0%31.0%31¢+14.0ppLOWPAPER103313hardQualification Round 1+0.140
18Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Titouan Droguet QualStefanos Sakellaridis🟨 WARM45.0%31.0%31¢+14.0ppLOWPAPER9784hardQualification Round 2+0.140
19Elena-Gabriela Ruse vs Magda LinetteMagda Linette55.8%42.0%42¢+13.8ppLOWPAPER793hardRound Of 128+0.138
20Martin Landaluce vs Jack DraperMartin Landaluce🟨 WARM41.8%29.0%29¢+12.8ppLOWPAPER1684hardRound Of 128+0.128
21Corentin Moutet vs Hubert HurkaczCorentin Moutet🧊 COLD46.6%34.0%34¢+12.6ppLOWPAPER5569hardRound Of 128+0.126
22Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jan ChoinskiJan Choinski🟨 WARM47.5%35.0%35¢+12.5ppLOWPAPER508hardRound Of 128+0.125
23Aleksandar Vukic vs Darwin Blanch QualDarwin Blanch49.4%38.0%38¢+11.4ppLOWPAPER201593hardQualification Round 1+0.114
24Claire Liu vs Sinja Kraus QualSinja Kraus🟨 WARM51.1%40.0%40¢+11.1ppLOWPAPER5528hardQualification Round 2+0.111
25Mattia Bellucci vs Zachary SvajdaMattia Bellucci🟨 WARM49.8%39.0%39¢+10.8ppLOWPAPER414hardRound Of 128+0.108
26Carol Young Suh Lee vs Polina Kudermetova QualPolina Kudermetova🟨 WARM53.7%43.0%43¢+10.7ppLOWPAPER53731hardQualification Round 1+0.107
27Cameron Norrie vs Dino PrizmicDino Prizmic🔥 HOT50.6%40.0%40¢+10.6ppLOWPAPER5367hardRound Of 128+0.106
28Rafael Jodar vs Brandon NakashimaBrandon Nakashima43.1%33.0%33¢+10.1ppLOWPAPER270548hardSemifinal+0.101
29Kyrian Jacquet vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer QualNicolai Budkov Kjaer🟨 WARM45.0%35.0%35¢+10.0ppLOWPAPER2730hardQualification Round 2+0.100
30Sara Bejlek vs Karolina PliskovaKarolina Pliskova🟨 WARM56.9%47.0%47¢+9.9ppLOWPAPER355hardRound Of 128+0.099
31Iga Swiatek vs Elina SvitolinaElina Svitolina🟨 WARM43.6%34.0%34¢+9.6ppLOWPAPER41044hardSemifinal+0.096
32Jeffrey John Wolf vs Sho Shimabukuro QualSho Shimabukuro54.5%45.0%45¢+9.5ppLOWPAPER5885hardQualification Round 2+0.095
33Tatjana Maria vs Dayana YastremskaDayana Yastremska60.1%51.0%51¢+9.1ppLOWPAPER594hardRound Of 128+0.091
34Sebastian Baez vs Grigor DimitrovSebastian Baez52.9%44.0%44¢+8.9ppLOWPAPER1500hardRound Of 128+0.089
35Karen Khachanov vs Aleksandar KovacevicAleksandar Kovacevic38.9%30.0%30¢+8.9ppLOWPAPER2158hardRound Of 128+0.089
36Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic Van de ZandschulpTallon Griekspoor🔥 HOT56.8%48.0%48¢+8.8ppLOWPAPER488hardRound Of 128+0.088
37Coco Gauff vs Elena RybakinaElena Rybakina🟨 WARM54.3%46.0%46¢+8.3ppLOWPAPER51332hardSemifinal+0.083
38Antonia Ruzic vs Magdalena FrechAntonia Ruzic49.0%41.0%41¢+8.0ppLOWPAPER258hardRound Of 128+0.080
39Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Valentin RoyerValentin Royer🧊 COLD31.9%24.0%24¢+7.9ppLOWPAPER422hardRound Of 128+0.079
40Kayla Day vs Yue Yuan QualYue Yuan🧊 COLD46.3%40.0%40¢+6.3ppLOWPAPER7490hardQualification Round 2+0.063
41Leolia Jeanjean vs Lucrezia Stefanini QualLeolia Jeanjean🧊 COLD53.0%47.0%47¢+6.0ppLOWPAPER2091hardQualification Round 2+0.060
42Lorenzo Sonego vs Juncheng ShangLorenzo Sonego🧊 COLD47.4%42.0%42¢+5.4ppLOWPAPER329hardRound Of 128+0.054
43Kamilla Rakhimova vs Kimberly BirrellKimberly Birrell🟨 WARM58.0%53.0%53¢+5.0ppLOWPAPER408hardRound Of 128+0.050
44Caty McNally vs McCartney KesslerMcCartney Kessler⏳ RTRN50.6%46.0%46¢+4.6ppLOWPAPER679hardRound Of 128+0.046
45Coleman Wong vs Otto Virtanen QualOtto Virtanen🔥 HOT57.2%53.0%53¢+4.2ppLOWPAPER40870hardQualification Round 2+0.042
46Taylor Townsend vs Camila OsorioCamila Osorio48.1%44.0%44¢+4.1ppLOWPAPER375hardRound Of 128+0.041
47Daniel Merida vs Marin CilicMarin Cilic52.8%49.0%49¢+3.8ppLOWPAPER769hardRound Of 128+0.038
48Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Anna BondarAnna Bondar🧊 COLD45.6%42.0%42¢+3.6ppLOWPAPER515hardRound Of 128+0.036
49Daria Snigur vs Yuliia StarodubtsevaYuliia Starodubtseva41.5%38.0%38¢+3.5ppLOWPAPER72hardRound Of 128+0.035
50Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Emiliana Arango QualEmiliana Arango🧊 COLD41.4%38.0%38¢+3.4ppLOWPAPER5915hardQualification Round 1+0.034
51Viktorija Golubic vs Alycia ParksAlycia Parks42.4%39.0%39¢+3.4ppLOWPAPER361hardRound Of 128+0.034
52Quentin Halys vs Yunchaokete Bu QualYunchaokete Bu🟨 WARM45.2%42.0%42¢+3.2ppLOWPAPER6814hardQualification Round 2+0.032
53Harriet Dart vs Aoi Ito QualAoi Ito45.1%42.0%42¢+3.1ppLOWPAPER3003hardQualification Round 2+0.031
54Ashlyn Krueger vs Lois BoissonLois Boisson🧊 COLD34.1%31.0%31¢+3.1ppLOWPAPER281hardRound Of 128+0.031
55Simona Waltert vs Petra MarcinkoSimona Waltert🧊 COLD48.8%46.0%46¢+2.8ppLOWPAPER63hardRound Of 128+0.028
56Denis Shapovalov vs Adrian MannarinoAdrian Mannarino🧊 COLD42.6%40.0%40¢+2.6ppLOWPAPER11387hardRound Of 128+0.026
57Cristina Bucsa vs Panna UdvardyPanna Udvardy🟨 WARM43.6%41.0%41¢+2.6ppLOWPAPER52hardRound Of 128+0.026
58Tomas Machac vs Pablo Carreno BustaPablo Carreno Busta🟨 WARM49.5%47.0%47¢+2.5ppLOWPAPER639hardRound Of 128+0.025
59Jan-Lennard Struff vs Roman Andres BurruchagaJan-Lennard Struff🧊 COLD55.1%53.0%53¢+2.1ppLOWPAPER428hardRound Of 128+0.021
60Daria Kasatkina vs Zeynep SonmezZeynep Sonmez45.1%43.0%43¢+2.1ppMEDPAPER428hardRound Of 128+0.021
61Xiyu Wang vs Bianca Andreescu QualBianca Andreescu48.0%46.0%46¢+2.0ppLOWPAPER43377hardQualification Round 1+0.020
62Katerina Siniakova vs Maria TimofeevaMaria Timofeeva39.4%38.0%38¢+1.4ppLOWSKIP1811hardRound Of 128+0.014
63Katie Boulter vs Katie VolynetsKatie Boulter🟨 WARM51.2%50.0%50¢+1.2ppLOWSKIP2874hardRound Of 128+0.012
64Aleksandr Shevchenko vs Christopher O'Connell QualChristopher O'Connell48.1%47.0%47¢+1.1ppLOWSKIP19244hardQualification Round 2+0.011
65Kei Nishikori vs Marco Trungelliti QualKei Nishikori🟨 WARM55.0%56.0%56¢-1.0ppLOWSKIP7396hardQualification Round 2-0.010
66Eva Lys vs Anna Blinkova QualEva Lys🧊 COLD55.0%54.0%54¢+1.0ppLOWSKIP659hardQualification Round 2+0.010
67Jaime Faria vs Yibing Wu QualJaime Faria🟨 WARM47.9%47.0%47¢+0.9ppLOWSKIP4441hardQualification Round 2+0.010
68Mariano Navone vs Raphael CollignonMariano Navone🟨 WARM41.6%41.0%41¢+0.6ppLOWSKIP669hardRound Of 128+0.006
69Dalibor Svrcina vs Mark Lajal QualDalibor Svrcina52.5%52.0%52¢+0.5ppLOWSKIP130105hardQualification Round 1+0.005
70Gael Monfils vs Rinky HijikataRinky Hijikata🟨 WARM43.5%44.0%44¢-0.5ppLOWSKIP502hardRound Of 128-0.005
71Anhelina Kalinina vs Darja VidmanovaAnhelina Kalinina🟨 WARM53.5%53.0%53¢+0.5ppLOWSKIP569hardRound Of 128+0.005
72Lilli Tagger vs Robin Montgomery QualRobin Montgomery🧊 COLD41.4%41.0%41¢+0.4ppLOWSKIP22565hardQualification Round 2+0.004
73Diane Parry vs Caroline DolehideDiane Parry50.9%51.0%51¢-0.1ppLOWSKIP199hardRound Of 128-0.001
#PlayerStatPP lineOur projEdge %SideTierOppSurfaceDemonPayout
1Learner Tien🧊 COLDAces2.56.10+144.0%MORELOWBen Sheltonclay—0.5x
2Bianca AndreescuDouble Faults3.50.00+100.0%LESSLOWXiyu Wangclay—1.0x
3Sinja Kraus🟨 WARMDouble Faults2.50.00+100.0%LESSLOWClaire Liuclay—1.0x
4Lilli TaggerDouble Faults3.50.00+100.0%LESSLOWRobin Montgomeryclay—1.0x
5Alina Charaeva🟨 WARMDouble Faults3.50.00+100.0%LESSLOWAlina Korneevaclay—1.0x
6Alina Korneeva🧊 COLDDouble Faults3.50.00+100.0%LESSLOWAlina Charaevaclay—1.0x
7Brandon NakashimaDouble Faults1.50.00+100.0%LESSLOWRafael Jodarclay—0.5x
8Daria Kasatkina🟨 WARMDouble Faults6.50.00+100.0%LESSELITEZeynep Sonmezclay—0.5x
9Kimberly BirrellDouble Faults5.50.00+100.0%LESSLOWKamilla Rakhimovaclay—1.0x
10Katie BoulterDouble Faults7.50.00+100.0%LESSLOWKatie Volynetsclay—0.5x
11Rafael Jodar🟨 WARMAces3.56.22+77.7%MORELOWBrandon Nakashimaclay—0.5x
12Coco Gauff🟨 WARMBreak Points Won3.55.10+45.9%MORELOWElena Rybakinaclay—1.0x
13Alina Charaeva🟨 WARMTotal Games Won8.510.68+25.7%MORELOWAlina Korneevaclay—1.0x
14Ben Shelton🟨 WARMTotal Tie Breaks0.50.37+25.3%LESSLOWLearner Tienclay—1.0x
15Learner Tien🧊 COLDTotal Games Won12.59.64+22.9%LESSLOWBen Sheltonclay—0.5x
16Jan-Lennard Struff🧊 COLDTotal Games Won12.59.72+22.2%LESSLOWRoman Andres Burruchagaclay—0.5x
17Miomir Kecmanovic🧊 COLDTotal Games Won12.59.83+21.4%LESSLOWCamilo Ugo Carabelliclay—1.0x
18Zachary Svajda🧊 COLDTotal Games Won12.59.84+21.3%LESSLOWMattia Bellucciclay—0.5x
19Rinky HijikataTotal Games Won12.59.92+20.6%LESSLOWGael Monfilsclay—0.5x
20Mariano Navone🟨 WARMTotal Games Won12.59.99+20.1%LESSLOWRaphael Collignonclay—0.5x
21Lorenzo Sonego🧊 COLDTotal Games Won12.510.04+19.7%LESSLOWJuncheng Shangclay—0.5x
22Darwin Blanch🟨 WARMTotal Games Won12.510.05+19.6%LESSLOWAleksandar Vukicclay—1.0x
23Yibing Wu🟨 WARMTotal Games Won12.510.05+19.6%LESSLOWJaime Fariaclay—1.0x
24Liudmila SamsonovaTotal Games20.524.51+19.5%MORELOWYulia Putintsevaclay—0.5x
25Jesper De JongTotal Games Won8.510.12+19.1%MORELOWAlex Michelsenclay—0.5x
26Brandon NakashimaTotal Games Won11.59.31+19.0%LESSLOWRafael Jodarclay—0.5x
27Tallon Griekspoor🧊 COLDTotal Games Won12.510.22+18.3%LESSLOWBotic Van de Zandschulpclay—0.5x
28Maya Joint⏳ RTRNTotal Games20.524.22+18.1%MORELOWTamara Korpatschclay—0.5x
29Pablo Carreno Busta🟨 WARMTotal Games Won12.510.27+17.9%LESSLOWTomas Machacclay—0.5x
30Brandon NakashimaAces7.56.16+17.9%LESSLOWRafael Jodarclay—0.5x
31Elena-Gabriela Ruse🟨 WARMTotal Games Won12.510.27+17.8%LESSLOWMagda Linetteclay—0.5x
32Cameron Norrie🟨 WARMTotal Games Won12.510.28+17.8%LESSLOWDino Prizmicclay—0.5x
33Alex Michelsen🧊 COLDTotal Games Won12.510.34+17.3%LESSLOWJesper De Jongclay—1.0x
34Luca Van AsscheTotal Games21.525.20+17.2%MORELOWDusan Lajovicclay—0.5x
35Elina SvitolinaAces2.52.93+17.1%MORELOWIga Swiatekclay—0.5x
36Kei NishikoriTotal Games Won12.510.49+16.1%LESSLOWMarco Trungelliticlay—1.0x
37Gael Monfils🧊 COLDTotal Games Won12.510.52+15.8%LESSLOWRinky Hijikataclay—0.5x
38Coco Gauff🟨 WARMTotal Games Won12.510.58+15.4%LESSLOWElena Rybakinaclay—0.5x
39Jacob Fearnley⏳ RTRNTotal Games21.524.79+15.3%MORELOWNicolas Mejiaclay—0.5x
40Miomir Kecmanovic🧊 COLDTotal Games21.524.74+15.1%MORELOWCamilo Ugo Carabelliclay—0.5x
41Stefanos TsitsipasTotal Games22.025.29+15.0%MORELOWValentin Royerclay—0.5x
42Aliaksandra SasnovichTotal Games21.024.12+14.9%MORELOWEmiliana Arangoclay—0.5x
43Kayla Day🟨 WARMTotal Games Won12.510.64+14.9%LESSLOWYue Yuanclay—1.0x
44Hubert Hurkacz🟨 WARMTotal Games Won13.011.09+14.7%LESSLOWCorentin Moutetclay—0.5x
45Elina SvitolinaTotal Games Won11.59.82+14.6%LESSLOWIga Swiatekclay—0.5x
46Alex Michelsen🧊 COLDTotal Games21.524.61+14.5%MORELOWJesper De Jongclay—0.5x
47Elena-Gabriela Ruse🟨 WARMTotal Games21.524.57+14.3%MORELOWMagda Linetteclay—0.5x
48Tomas MachacTotal Games Won12.510.73+14.1%LESSLOWPablo Carreno Bustaclay—0.5x
49Lilli TaggerTotal Games Won12.510.74+14.1%LESSLOWRobin Montgomeryclay—1.0x
50Petra MarcinkoTotal Games21.524.51+14.0%MORELOWSimona Waltertclay—0.5x
51Roman Andres Burruchaga🟨 WARMTotal Games Won12.510.77+13.8%LESSLOWJan-Lennard Struffclay—0.5x
52Caroline Dolehide⏳ RTRNTotal Games21.524.47+13.8%MORELOWDiane Parryclay—0.5x
53Harriet Dart🟨 WARMTotal Games21.524.47+13.8%MORELOWAoi Itoclay—0.5x
54Eva Lys🧊 COLDTotal Games21.524.45+13.7%MORELOWAnna Blinkovaclay—0.5x
55Iga SwiatekTotal Games21.524.44+13.7%MORELOWElina Svitolinaclay—0.5x
56Lanlana Tararudee🟨 WARMTotal Games21.524.37+13.3%MORELOWMananchaya Sawangkaewclay—0.5x
57Valentin Royer🟨 WARMTotal Games Won10.59.10+13.3%LESSLOWStefanos Tsitsipasclay—0.5x
58Magdalena FrechTotal Games21.524.34+13.2%MORELOWAntonia Ruzicclay—0.5x
59Anhelina Kalinina🟨 WARMTotal Games21.524.30+13.0%MORELOWDarja Vidmanovaclay—0.5x
60Viktorija GolubicTotal Games21.524.29+13.0%MORELOWAlycia Parksclay—0.5x
61Martin LandaluceTotal Games Won11.510.01+12.9%LESSLOWJack Draperclay—0.5x
62Kyrian Jacquet⏳ RTRNTotal Games Won12.510.89+12.8%LESSLOWNicolai Budkov Kjaerclay—1.0x
63Stefanos Sakellaridis🟨 WARMTotal Games Won11.510.05+12.6%LESSLOWTitouan Droguetclay—1.0x
64Trevor Svajda⏳ RTRNTotal Games Won11.510.05+12.6%LESSLOWMichael Zhengclay—0.5x
65Daria Snigur🟨 WARMTotal Games21.524.21+12.6%MORELOWYuliia Starodubtsevaclay—0.5x
66Mary Stoiana🟨 WARMTotal Games21.524.18+12.5%MORELOWOksana Selekhmetevaclay—0.5x
67Jaime Faria🟨 WARMTotal Games Won12.510.95+12.4%LESSLOWYibing Wuclay—1.0x
68Michael Zheng⏳ RTRNTotal Games Won12.510.95+12.4%LESSLOWTrevor Svajdaclay—1.0x
69Titouan Droguet🟨 WARMTotal Games22.525.28+12.4%MORELOWStefanos Sakellaridisclay—0.5x
70Aliaksandra SasnovichTotal Games21.524.12+12.2%MORELOWEmiliana Arangoclay—0.5x
71Maria Timofeeva🟨 WARMTotal Games Won11.510.11+12.1%LESSLOWKaterina Siniakovaclay—0.5x
72Raphael Collignon⏳ RTRNTotal Games22.525.22+12.1%MORELOWMariano Navoneclay—0.5x
73Terence AtmaneTotal Games22.525.21+12.1%MORELOWMarton Fucsovicsclay—0.5x
74Taylor Townsend🟨 WARMTotal Games21.524.09+12.0%MORELOWCamila Osorioclay—0.5x
75Thiago Agustin Tirante🟨 WARMTotal Games22.525.19+12.0%MORELOWJan Choinskiclay—0.5x
76Raphael Collignon⏳ RTRNTotal Games Won12.511.01+11.9%LESSLOWMariano Navoneclay—0.5x
77Tomas MachacTotal Games22.525.16+11.8%MORELOWPablo Carreno Bustaclay—0.5x
78Zachary Svajda🧊 COLDTotal Games22.525.14+11.7%MORELOWMattia Bellucciclay—0.5x
79Juncheng Shang⏳ RTRNTotal Games22.525.14+11.7%MORELOWLorenzo Sonegoclay—0.5x
80Katie VolynetsTotal Games21.524.00+11.6%MORELOWKatie Boulterclay—0.5x
81Alina Korneeva🧊 COLDTotal Games20.522.88+11.6%MORELOWAlina Charaevaclay—0.5x
82Daria Kasatkina🟨 WARMTotal Games21.523.95+11.4%MORESTRONGZeynep Sonmezclay—0.5x
83Dalibor Svrcina🟨 WARMTotal Games22.525.01+11.2%MORELOWMark Lajalclay—0.5x
84Yibing Wu🟨 WARMTotal Games22.525.00+11.1%MORELOWJaime Fariaclay—0.5x
85Xiyu Wang🟨 WARMTotal Games21.523.88+11.1%MORELOWBianca Andreescuclay—0.5x
86Viktorija GolubicTotal Games Won12.511.12+11.0%LESSLOWAlycia Parksclay—0.5x
87Claire Liu🟨 WARMTotal Games21.523.87+11.0%MORELOWSinja Krausclay—0.5x
88Jack Draper⏳ RTRNTotal Games22.524.97+11.0%MORELOWMartin Landaluceclay—0.5x
89Jessica Bouzas ManeiroTotal Games21.523.85+10.9%MORELOWAnna Bondarclay—0.5x
90Kyrian Jacquet⏳ RTRNTotal Games22.524.92+10.8%MORELOWNicolai Budkov Kjaerclay—0.5x
91Iga SwiatekTotal Games Won12.511.18+10.6%LESSLOWElina Svitolinaclay—0.5x
92Sara Bejlek⏳ RTRNTotal Games21.523.77+10.6%MORELOWKarolina Pliskovaclay—0.5x
93Denis ShapovalovTotal Games22.524.86+10.5%MORELOWAdrian Mannarinoclay—0.5x
94Kayla Day🟨 WARMTotal Games21.523.74+10.4%MORELOWYue Yuanclay—0.5x
95Oleksandra OliynykovaTotal Games Won10.511.59+10.4%MORELOWElvina Kalievaclay—0.5x
96Karen Khachanov🧊 COLDTotal Games Won12.511.21+10.3%LESSLOWAleksandar Kovacevicclay—0.5x
97Xiyu Wang🟨 WARMDouble Faults3.53.85+10.0%MORELOWBianca Andreescuclay—1.0x
98Luca Van AsscheTotal Games Won12.511.25+10.0%LESSLOWDusan Lajovicclay—1.0x
99Cameron Norrie🟨 WARMTotal Games22.524.68+9.7%MORELOWDino Prizmicclay—0.5x
100Dayana YastremskaTotal Games21.523.55+9.5%MORELOWTatjana Mariaclay—0.5x
101Yulia PutintsevaTotal Games Won9.510.38+9.3%MORELOWLiudmila Samsonovaclay—0.5x
102Kei NishikoriTotal Games22.524.55+9.1%MORELOWMarco Trungelliticlay—0.5x
103Xiyu Wang🟨 WARMTotal Games22.023.88+8.6%MORELOWBianca Andreescuclay—0.5x
104Elvina Kalieva🟨 WARMTotal Games21.523.32+8.5%MORELOWOleksandra Oliynykovaclay—0.5x
105Stefanos TsitsipasTotal Games Won13.011.90+8.5%LESSLOWValentin Royerclay—1.0x
106Hubert Hurkacz🟨 WARMTotal Games23.024.90+8.3%MORELOWCorentin Moutetclay—0.5x
107Karen Khachanov🧊 COLDTotal Games23.024.89+8.2%MORELOWAleksandar Kovacevicclay—0.5x
108Coco Gauff🟨 WARMTotal Games22.524.33+8.1%MORELOWElena Rybakinaclay—0.5x
109Gael Monfils🧊 COLDTotal Games23.525.40+8.1%MORELOWRinky Hijikataclay—0.5x
110Rafael Jodar🟨 WARMTotal Games22.524.32+8.1%MORELOWBrandon Nakashimaclay—0.5x
111Jan-Lennard Struff🧊 COLDTotal Games22.524.23+7.7%MORELOWRoman Andres Burruchagaclay—0.5x
112Tallon Griekspoor🧊 COLDTotal Games23.525.26+7.5%MORELOWBotic Van de Zandschulpclay—0.5x
113Kimberly BirrellTotal Games22.524.19+7.5%MORELOWKamilla Rakhimovaclay—0.5x
114Katerina Siniakova🟨 WARMTotal Games21.523.05+7.2%MORELOWMaria Timofeevaclay—0.5x
115Dusan LajovicTotal Games Won10.59.75+7.2%LESSLOWLuca Van Asscheclay—1.0x
116Grigor Dimitrov🧊 COLDTotal Games23.024.64+7.1%MORELOWSebastian Baezclay—0.5x
117Otto Virtanen🧊 COLDTotal Games23.525.17+7.1%MORELOWColeman Wongclay—0.5x
118Leolia JeanjeanTotal Games21.522.98+6.9%MORELOWLucrezia Stefaniniclay—0.5x
119Ben Shelton🟨 WARMTotal Games23.525.12+6.9%MORELOWLearner Tienclay—0.5x
120Marcos GironTotal Games22.023.26+5.7%MORELOWHenrique Rochaclay—0.5x
121Ashlyn KruegerTotal Games21.522.54+4.9%MORELOWLois Boissonclay—0.5x
122Nicolas Mejia🟨 WARMTotal Games Won10.510.05+4.3%LESSLOWJacob Fearnleyclay—1.0x
123Tamara Korpatsch🟨 WARMTotal Games Won10.510.90+3.8%MORELOWMaya Jointclay—0.5x
124Cristina Bucsa🟨 WARMTotal Games21.522.31+3.8%MORELOWPanna Udvardyclay—0.5x
125Nuno Borges🧊 COLDTotal Games24.525.14+2.6%MORELOWThanasi Kokkinakisclay—0.5x
126Lois Boisson🧊 COLDTotal Games Won9.59.70+2.1%MORELOWAshlyn Kruegerclay—0.5x
127Camilo Ugo CarabelliTotal Games Won10.510.65+1.4%MORELOWMiomir Kecmanovicclay—0.5x
Kalshi tennis — 0 picks · $0.00 staked
Day 1 - paper only, grade EOD before scaling · locked 2026-08-12T13:15:06.256372+00:00
#MatchPickOur PAskEdgeTierSurfaceStakeStatusP&L
PrizePicks tennis — 1 picks · $1.00 staked
Day 1 - paper only, grade EOD before scaling · locked 2026-08-12T13:15:06.189156+00:00
#PlayerStatLineOur projSideEdgeTierSurfaceStakeStatusP&L
1Ben SheltonTotal Tie Breaks0.50.37LESS25.3%ELITEclay$1.00OPEN+0.00
Polymarket = retail/crypto sentiment. We can't bet there from CA, but the divergence vs Kalshi (sharp) reveals where the public is loading up. Generated 2026-08-12T10:50:23 Β· flagged threshold = Β±3.0pp Β· 0 flagged futures / 0 flagged matches.

Grand-slam futures Β· ANY 2026 Slam (Kalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM vs Polymarket per-slam aggregate)

Polymarket "any-slam" probability computed naively as 1 - product(1 - p_slam). Positive divergence = public (Polymarket) more bullish than sharp (Kalshi). Sorted by |divergence|.
PlayerSharp (Kalshi)Public (Poly)Ξ”Poly per-slam
Novak Djokovic Β· exact8.5%6.2%-2.3pp Β· SHARP HIGHERUS 6%
Jack Draper Β· exact2.5%0.3%-2.2pp Β· SHARP HIGHERUS 0%
Taylor Fritz Β· exact4.5%3.1%-1.4pp Β· SHARP HIGHERUS 3%
Ben Shelton Β· exact1.5%2.8%+1.3pp Β· PUBLIC HIGHERUS 3%
Daniil Medvedev Β· exact2.5%2.3%-0.2pp Β· SHARP HIGHERUS 2%
Frances Tiafoe Β· exact0.5%0.4%-0.1pp Β· SHARP HIGHERUS 0%
Lorenzo Musetti Β· exact0.5%0.5%+0.0pp Β· PUBLIC HIGHERUS 1%
Alexander Bublik Β· exact0.5%0.5%+0.0pp Β· PUBLIC HIGHERUS 1%
Karen Khachanov Β· no-match0.5%—no Poly match—
Felix Auger-Aliassime Β· no-match2.5%—no Poly match—
Casper Ruud Β· no-match1.0%—no Poly match—
Alex de Minaur Β· no-match0.5%—no Poly match—

Per-match overlaps

No active per-match overlaps right now (Polymarket tennis volume concentrates in Grand Slam futures).
!
Calibration provisional. Only 18 graded picks; verdicts not actionable until 50+.
Per-stat-type MAE (n_graded=18)
Bar width = MAE (lower = better). "INSUFFICIENT" = need more graded picks.
Total Games
n=4
Ours
PP
Us 6.45
PP 3.25
INSUFFICIENT_N
Total Games Won
n=13
Ours
PP
Us 5.11
PP 4.96
NULL
Total Tie Breaks
n=1
Ours
PP
Us 0.25
PP 0.50
INSUFFICIENT_N
Per-tier MAE
Bar width = MAE (lower = better). "INSUFFICIENT" = need more graded picks.
ELITE
n=16
Ours
PP
Us 4.94
PP 3.75
NULL
MED
n=0
Ours
PP
Us —
PP —
INSUFFICIENT_N
STRONG
n=2
Ours
PP
Us 6.75
PP 9.00
INSUFFICIENT_N
[!]
No AAR available yet.
Expected: ~/.claude/projects/.../memory/aar_tennis_<date>.md
#PlayerStatOppOpenLatestDiffAbsDirection
1Nuno BorgesTotal GamesThanasi Kokkinakis22.524.5+2.002.00UP
2Otto VirtanenTotal GamesColeman Wong24.523.5-1.001.00DOWN
3Elina SvitolinaTotal Games WonIga Swiatek10.511.5+1.001.00UP
4Juncheng ShangTotal GamesLorenzo Sonego23.522.5-1.001.00DOWN
5Tomas MachacTotal GamesPablo Carreno Busta23.522.5-1.001.00DOWN
6Alex MichelsenTotal GamesJesper De Jong20.521.5+1.001.00UP
7Aleksandar VukicFantasy ScoreDarwin Blanch17.017.5+0.500.50UP
8Mark LajalFantasy ScoreDalibor Svrcina11.512.0+0.500.50UP
9Mark LajalFantasy ScoreDalibor Svrcina19.019.5+0.500.50UP
10Mark LajalFantasy ScoreDalibor Svrcina2.02.5+0.500.50UP
11Aleksandar VukicFantasy ScoreDarwin Blanch20.020.5+0.500.50UP
12Aleksandar VukicFantasy ScoreDarwin Blanch5.05.5+0.500.50UP
13Otto VirtanenFantasy ScoreColeman Wong16.016.5+0.500.50UP
14Lilli TaggerFantasy ScoreRobin Montgomery17.518.0+0.500.50UP
15Coco GauffFantasy ScoreElena Rybakina11.512.0+0.500.50UP
16Hubert HurkaczTotal GamesCorentin Moutet22.523.0+0.500.50UP
17Stefanos TsitsipasTotal GamesValentin Royer21.522.0+0.500.50UP
18Grigor DimitrovTotal GamesSebastian Baez22.523.0+0.500.50UP
ATP top 50
RkPlayerCountryPtsELO overallELO clayELO grassELO hard
1Jannik SinnerITA135002167187916952062
2Carlos AlcarazESP99602070186717171956
3Alexander ZverevGER73051994186515941863
4Felix Auger AliassimeCAN44401854164215171803
5Ben SheltonUSA39201816166515611765
6Alex De MinaurAUS39051851167715901806
7Novak DjokovicSRB37601929172916361846
8Daniil MedvedevRUS37601884165915851845
9Taylor FritzUSA37201793155117221749
10Flavio CobolliITA35401833175415571655
11Alexander BublikKAZ29301785168115691703
12Jiri LeheckaCZE25751814163215741754
13Andrey RublevRUS24601804170515161683
14Casper RuudNOR24251866180515021685
15Karen KhachanovRUS23201723162215671639
16Lorenzo MusettiITA23151832176416071723
17Jakub MensikCZE23001825166114971747
18Luciano DarderiITA23001772179014661466
19Learner TienUSA22701847162215061789
20Valentin VacherotMON21451800169514671738
21Arthur FilsFRA19401892174615461771
22Alejandro Davidovich FokinaESP18601749159315451703
23Rafael JodarESP184918931755—1765
24Arthur RinderknechFRA17761713157615301631
25Joao FonsecaBRA17351837167314951795
26Frances TiafoeUSA17051775164014881719
27Francisco CerundoloARG16601790170014261698
28Tommy PaulUSA16451851175815871743
29Cameron NorrieGBR15951738163115291682
30Tomas Martin EtcheverryARG15101751165614561636
31Alejandro TabiloCHI14281798170515751637
32Brandon NakashimaUSA13851713158215901660
33Ugo HumbertFRA13701715149815171697
34Matteo ArnaldiITA13361719167614551558
35Ignacio BusePER13161773173214821562
36Corentin MoutetFRA12831673156715741640
37Alexander BlockxBEL12801820168815081713
38Alex MichelsenUSA12051727152215381702
39Mariano NavoneARG11651767172214601507
40Zizou BergsBEL11501681154715211631
41Tallon GriekspoorNED11501680157615641645
42Denis ShapovalovCAN11301668148314721698
43Tomas MachacCZE11201745160215001682
44Jaume MunarESP11051695158915081635
45Juan Manuel CerundoloARG10551756175314691532
46Adrian MannarinoFRA10311565136915841569
47Marin CilicCRO9941684151316111635
48Matteo BerrettiniITA9851749168915241694
49Miomir KecmanovicSRB9801688158415001595
50Nuno BorgesPOR9701656159614931596
WTA top 50
RkPlayerCountryPtsELO overallELO clayELO grassELO hard
1Aryna SabalenkaBLR90902089180115882045
2Elena RybakinaKAZ81432040176615801972
3Iga SwiatekPOL67331957180916581852
4Jessica PegulaUSA60561979170115831901
5Amanda AnisimovaUSA58481906158016381822
6Mirra AndreevaRUS57511995186715131797
7Coco GauffUSA48791980182415191871
8Elina SvitolinaUKR43151996182415501824
9Victoria MbokoCAN36701937172615151891
10Karolina MuchovaCZE34381927160214941869
11Belinda BencicSUI33851904163615611831
12Marta KostyukUKR31571959180114491755
13Linda NoskovaCZE30541869159915831763
14Jasmine PaoliniITA26171809170115851741
15Naomi OsakaJPN25711855168815141734
16Diana ShnaiderRUS25061841170115651686
17Ekaterina AlexandrovaRUS24491711155615841662
18Sorana CirsteaROU24151919171414291797
19Iva JovicUSA23661833166716011759
20Anna KalinskayaRUS22121834163115461721
21Maja ChwalinskaPOL19961860179514831693
22Elise MertensBEL19181811161915811714
23Leylah FernandezCAN18441760156915461679
24Clara TausonDEN18001719152715201679
25Emma NavarroUSA17791759165315901613
26Madison KeysUSA17721864173215581766
27Anastasia PotapovaRUS16401855174314841640
28Marie BouzkovaCZE16311787170214761648
29Ann LiUSA16011759164614781647
30Hailey BaptisteUSA15131790166714881667
31Xin Yu WangCHN14311719153715911616
32Katerina SiniakovaCZE14221771155915781693
33Alexandra EalaPHI14161837149516651748
34Cristina BucsaESP14061705144315141684
35Liudmila SamsonovaRUS14051680159316191566
36Jelena OstapenkoLAT14041762166015341621
37Maria SakkariGRE13281729158914861658
38Jaqueline CristianROU12941767163114321698
39Mccartney KesslerUSA12891751154715831688
40Janice TjenINA12671780163415031785
41Elisabetta CocciarettoITA12601800158615771689
42Emma RaducanuGBR12411727154815771658
43Magdalena FrechPOL12381655153014341613
44Laura SiegemundGER12301691155315411592
45Barbora KrejcikovaCZE12111743155016061647
46Sara BejlekCZE12051783173614861653
47Tereza ValentovaCZE11651829172715171788
48Marketa VondrousovaCZE11331728160615781609
49Dayana YastremskaUKR11261743164015751594
50Petra MarcinkoCRO11231771174314671633
Top Kalshi edges
#1 Marco Cecchinato ELITE_LOW_N
Marco Cecchinato vs Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera on hard β€” model 45% vs market 15% (+30.0pp). ELITE_LOW_N, ask 15Β’.
#2 Andres Andrade ELITE_LOW_N
Andres Andrade vs Colton Smith on hard β€” model 49% vs market 20% (+29.4pp). ELITE_LOW_N, ask 20Β’. Form: Andres Andra=COLD | Colton Smith=WARM.
#3 Gonzalo Bueno STRONG_LOW_N
Gonzalo Bueno vs Jerome Kym on hard β€” model 45% vs market 16% (+29.0pp). STRONG_LOW_N, ask 16Β’.
#4 Adam Walton ELITE_LOW_N
Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios on hard β€” model 64% vs market 93% (+-28.5pp). ELITE_LOW_N, ask 93Β’.
#5 Florent Bax ELITE_LOW_N
Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch on hard β€” model 45% vs market 17% (+28.0pp). ELITE_LOW_N, ask 17Β’.
Top PrizePicks edges
#1 Martin Landaluce ELITE_LOW_N
Martin Landaluce LESS 0.5 Total Tie Breaks vs Jan-Lennard Struff β€” proj 0.2 (+50.0% edge). Surface: clay.
#2 Rei Sakamoto ELITE_LOW_N
Rei Sakamoto LESS 0.5 Total Tie Breaks vs Anton Matusevich β€” proj 0.2 (+49.9% edge). Surface: clay.
#3 Jack Draper STRONG_LOW_N
Jack Draper LESS 0.5 Total Tie Breaks vs Brandon Nakashima β€” proj 0.2 (+49.9% edge). Surface: clay.
Fade signals
  • Clara Tauson (RETURNING): RETURNING form tag β€” fade or fade-against.
  • Gabriel Diallo (COLD): COLD form tag β€” fade or fade-against.
  • Raphael Collignon (RETURNING): RETURNING form tag β€” fade or fade-against.
  • Maya Joint (RETURNING): RETURNING form tag β€” fade or fade-against.
  • Antonia Ruzic (COLD): COLD form tag β€” fade or fade-against.
  • Francisco Comesana (COLD): COLD form tag β€” fade or fade-against.
  • Jan Lennard Struff (COLD): COLD form tag β€” fade or fade-against.
  • Alexei Popyrin (COLD): COLD form tag β€” fade or fade-against.
Surface leans
SurfaceMatches% strong favLean
hard50.0%pick'em slate
grass1543.9%pick'em slate
ATP (current surface: grass, top 50 by composite)
RkPlayerCountryCompositeELO overallELO grassFormOff. rank
1Jannik SinnerITA2051.621671695WARM1
2Carlos AlcarazESP1923.620701717RETURNING2
3Rafael JodarESP1913.018931893WARM23
4Alexander ZverevGER1898.319941594WARM3
5Daniil MedvedevRUS1808.018841585WARM8
6Arthur FilsFRA1791.018921546WARM21
7Novak DjokovicSRB1788.619291636RETURNING7
8Tommy PaulUSA1778.518511587WARM28
9Felix Auger AliassimeCAN1777.318541517WARM4
10Adolfo Daniel VallejoPAR1775.317551755WARM72
11Alex De MinaurAUS1775.018511590NEUTRAL6
12Daniel Merida AguilarESP1767.717481748WARM82
13Yibing WuCHN1766.817471747WARM101
14Ben SheltonUSA1764.818161561WARM5
15Flavio CobolliITA1759.518331557WARM10
16Casper RuudNOR1758.518661502WARM14
17Lorenzo MusettiITA1753.518321607NEUTRAL16
18Dino PrizmicCRO1753.218131499HOT70
19Jiri LeheckaCZE1750.118141574WARM12
20Alejandro TabiloCHI1739.817981575WARM31
21Joao FonsecaBRA1737.318371495WARM25
22Alexander BlockxBEL1730.518201508WARM37
23Jakub MensikCZE1730.118251497WARM17
24Toby SamuelGBR1728.817091709WARM150
25Learner TienUSA1727.218471506NEUTRAL19
26Taylor FritzUSA1724.017931722RETURNING9
27Stefanos SakellaridisGRE1711.716921692WARM155
28Alexander BublikKAZ1709.517851569NEUTRAL11
29Rei SakamotoJPN1706.316861686WARM149
30Valentin VacherotMON1703.418001467WARM20
31Andrey RublevRUS1703.118041516NEUTRAL13
32Zachary SvajdaUSA1696.917221650NEUTRAL62
33Michael MmohUSA1695.316751675WARM195
34Alex MolcanSVK1694.017441744RETURNING102
35Nikolas Sanchez IzquierdoESP1691.416411641HOT226
36Kilian FeldbauschSUI1688.916691669WARM287
37Pablo Carreno BustaESP1684.317611484WARM71
38Buvaysar GadamauriBEL1684.116641664WARM261
39Francisco CerundoloARG1682.917901426WARM27
40Jack DraperGBR1682.218061594RETURNING112
41Mariano NavoneARG1679.817671460WARM39
42Franco RoncadelliURU1679.016591659WARM227
43Alejandro Davidovich FokinaESP1677.317491545NEUTRAL22
44Roman Andres BurruchagaARG1676.817331514WARM63
45Juan Manuel CerundoloARG1675.717561469WARM45
46Hubert HurkaczPOL1675.617141547WARM96
47Ignacio BusePER1671.017731482NEUTRAL35
48Matteo BerrettiniITA1670.617491524NEUTRAL48
49Brandon NakashimaUSA1670.417131590NEUTRAL32
50Bu YunchaoketeCHN1668.717091536WARM131
WTA (current surface: grass, top 50 by composite)
RkPlayerCountryCompositeELO overallELO grassFormOff. rank
1Aryna SabalenkaBLR1963.920891588WARM1
2Elena RybakinaKAZ1925.920401580WARM2
3Alexandra ShubladzeRUS1898.618791879WARM184
4Jeline VandrommeBEL1883.018631863WARM176
5Jessica PegulaUSA1881.719791583WARM4
6Iga SwiatekPOL1876.419571658NEUTRAL3
7Elina SvitolinaUKR1869.319961550WARM8
8Lisa PigatoITA1866.518461846WARM132
9Mirra AndreevaRUS1861.019951513WARM6
10Coco GauffUSA1850.819801519WARM7
11Akasha UrhoboUSA1843.418231823WARM180
12Tyra Caterina GrantUSA1840.518201820WARM157
13Dayeon BackKOR1825.718061806WARM279
14Kaitlin QuevedoUSA1824.718251825NEUTRAL107
15Victoria MbokoCAN1815.119371515WARM9
16Laura SamsonCZE1810.318101810NEUTRAL137
17Alice TubelloFRA1810.117901790WARM222
18Belinda BencicSUI1804.319041561WARM11
19Carol Young Suh LeePOC1801.317811781WARM192
20Jennifer RuggeriITA1801.117811781WARM213
21Marta KostyukUKR1800.219591449WARM12
22Anastasia ZolotarevaRUS1798.017781778WARM233
23Kristina LiutovaRUS1796.517771777WARM229
24Luisina GiovanniniARG1793.418431843RETURNING173
25Angela Fita BoludaESP1793.217731773WARM195
26Eva Guerrero AlvarezESP1791.517721772WARM274
27Linda NoskovaCZE1788.918691583WARM13
28Hayu KinoshitaJPN1787.317671767WARM217
29Martyna KubkaPOL1784.617651765WARM243
30Darya AstakhovaRUS1782.717631763WARM236
31Amanda AnisimovaUSA1780.319061638RETURNING5
32Samira De StefanoITA1779.417591759WARM263
33Alexandra EalaPHI1776.518371665NEUTRAL33
34Caijsa Wilda HennemannSWE1773.617741774NEUTRAL276
35Lilli TaggerAUT1770.917711771NEUTRAL86
36Claire LiuUSA1770.017501750WARM148
37Sorana CirsteaROU1767.419191429WARM18
38Lanlana TararudeeTHA1766.518601536WARM94
39Daria SnigurUKR1765.818631528WARM84
40Veronika PodrezUKR1764.218141814RETURNING145
41Lucie HavlickovaCZE1758.117381738WARM212
42Sohyun ParkKOR1756.717371737WARM270
43Julie StruplovaCZE1755.717861786COLD272
44Tatiana ProzorovaRUS1755.618061806RETURNING172
45Elizara YanevaBUL1752.517521752NEUTRAL225
46Iva JovicUSA1751.918331601NEUTRAL19
47Oleksandra OliynykovaCRO1748.018591485WARM51
48Hanyu GuoCHN1747.717281728WARM156
49Anhelina KalininaUKR1746.918421513WARM69
50Rebeka MasarovaESP1746.218131623NEUTRAL140
ATP on CLAY (top 15 by surface tilt)
PlayerΞ” ELOELO clayELO overallFormOff. rank
Zdenek Kolar+27.916171589NEUTRAL162
Gustavo Heide+25.117251700RETURNING182
Jan Choinski+19.616881668COLD105
Juan Carlos Prado Angelo+19.316481628RETURNING161
Gonzalo Bueno+17.616371619RETURNING180
Luciano Darderi+17.217901772WARM18
Valentin Royer+16.516541638WARM74
Alex Barrena+13.915711557NEUTRAL197
Jesper De Jong+12.716721659NEUTRAL83
Hugo Dellien+11.216881677RETURNING165
Timofey Skatov+11.016311620NEUTRAL175
Tomas Barrios Vera+9.116861677COLD138
Lukas Neumayer+8.916931684WARM168
Marco Trungelliti+8.616841675NEUTRAL80
Facundo Diaz Acosta+4.717031698RETURNING128
WTA on CLAY (top 15 by surface tilt)
PlayerΞ” ELOELO clayELO overallFormOff. rank
Katarzyna Kawa+26.317301704HOT143
Despina Papamichail+7.516861679NEUTRAL168
Teodora Kostovic+4.717351730NEUTRAL182
Anna Bondar+4.517791775WARM75
Simona Waltert-2.917641767WARM90
Carole Monnet-3.116621665NEUTRAL191
Julia Grabher-4.817151720NEUTRAL116
Andrea Lazaro Garcia-7.617911799WARM153
Luisina Giovannini-10.718331843RETURNING173
Veronika Erjavec-12.417391752WARM89
Darja Semenistaja-13.517781792WARM102
Mayar Sherif-13.817071720RETURNING118
Whitney Osuigwe-13.816681682WARM183
Nuria Brancaccio-14.116581672COLD177
Tamara Zidansek-15.217611777RETURNING134
ATP on GRASS (top 15 by surface tilt)
PlayerΞ” ELOELO grassELO overallFormOff. rank
Shintaro Mochizuki+54.615651511RETURNING129
Nicolas Jarry+29.415641535RETURNING189
Billy Harris+25.615411515COLD144
Adrian Mannarino+19.415841565COLD46
Roberto Bautista Agut-25.015511576COLD116
Aleksandar Vukic-31.815371569COLD100
Otto Virtanen-49.016311680NEUTRAL158
Tristan Schoolkate-50.415501600WARM123
Alex Bolt-56.115921648WARM157
August Holmgren-56.715481605WARM148
Gabriel Diallo-63.215761639COLD54
Marcos Giron-71.315701641WARM88
Zachary Svajda-72.316501722NEUTRAL62
Marin Cilic-73.216111684NEUTRAL47
Ugo Blanchet-74.714591534COLD173
WTA on GRASS (top 15 by surface tilt)
PlayerΞ” ELOELO grassELO overallFormOff. rank
Tatjana Maria-18.015981616NEUTRAL52
Beatriz Haddad Maia-64.515141578COLD108
Viktoriya Tomova-107.015001607NEUTRAL167
Ajla Tomljanovic-111.215361647NEUTRAL109
Xin Yu Wang-127.115911719NEUTRAL31
Kamilla Rakhimova-128.215761705NEUTRAL78
Linda Fruhvirtova-133.915431677NEUTRAL164
Suzan Lamens-135.014891624COLD125
Lulu Sun-136.615191655NEUTRAL110
Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva-136.914991636NEUTRAL124
Rebecca Sramkova-137.315091646NEUTRAL120
Dalma Galfi-138.315761714NEUTRAL117
Ashlyn Krueger-149.215631712NEUTRAL113
Elena Gabriela Ruse-159.415701730NEUTRAL88
Bianca Andreescu-161.615391700NEUTRAL158
ATP on HARD (top 15 by surface tilt)
PlayerΞ” ELOELO hardELO overallFormOff. rank
Hugo Gaston+45.516661620WARM119
Luca Van Assche+35.717041668WARM98
Toby Samuel+29.517381709WARM150
Gauthier Onclin+6.016131607HOT186
Clement Chidekh+5.516291624NEUTRAL200
Rinky Hijikata+3.216831680WARM106
Alexis Galarneau+2.916131610WARM187
Coleman Wong-1.916411643WARM108
Benjamin Bonzi-3.016781680WARM99
Michael Mmoh-10.916641675WARM195
Borna Gojo-11.216981709WARM178
Ethan Quinn-13.216831696WARM67
Marcos Giron-13.616281641WARM88
Sho Shimabukuro-14.616431657NEUTRAL104
Terence Atmane-14.716271641NEUTRAL53
WTA on HARD (top 15 by surface tilt)
PlayerΞ” ELOELO hardELO overallFormOff. rank
Talia Gibson+53.518321779HOT63
Hanne Vandewinkel+51.218481796HOT97
Xiaodi You+1.417301729WARM170
Kimberly Birrell-6.317511757WARM74
Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva-6.916291636WARM124
Ye Xin Ma-9.416841693WARM189
Sofia Costoulas-11.217291740WARM150
Taylah Preston-15.517961811WARM126
Polina Iatcenko-17.517211738NEUTRAL163
Himeno Sakatsume-18.417421761NEUTRAL127
Vendula Valdmannova-18.617851804WARM199
Priscilla Hon-19.116461665NEUTRAL146
Harriet Dart-23.517401763WARM160
Francisca Jorge-27.216991727RETURNING196
Hanyu Guo-27.717001728WARM156
WTA on INDOOR (top 15 by surface tilt)
PlayerΞ” ELOELO indoorELO overallFormOff. rank
Linda Klimovicova-124.116161740NEUTRAL165
Kimberly Birrell-177.115801757NEUTRAL74
Ye Xin Ma-177.915151693WARM189
Carole Monnet-194.214711665NEUTRAL191
Elvina Kalieva-209.715211731WARM135
Himeno Sakatsume-218.015431761NEUTRAL127
Emerson Jones-222.015841806WARM133
Dalma Galfi-228.314861714NEUTRAL117
Marina Bassols Ribera-229.215031732WARM144
Tamara Korpatsch-240.115341774WARM79
Mona Barthel-254.215001754WARM193
Polina Iatcenko-254.514841738NEUTRAL163
Sofia Costoulas-256.114841740WARM150
Vendula Valdmannova-269.715341804WARM199
Daria Snigur-273.915891863WARM84
⚠ Caveat: Model CLV anti-correlated with skill (Phase A finding); treat parlays as paper.
Kalshi cross-match (independent fav parlays)
No combos surfaced.
Kalshi same-match (correlated)
No combos surfaced.
PrizePicks slips
LabelVarianceLegsJoint PPayoutEV/$
2-pick MED-varianceMEDHugo Dellien MORE 8.5 Total Games Won, Michael Zheng MORE 20.0 Total Games0.4095.00x1.047
2-pick HIGH-varianceHIGHCoco Gauff LESS 4.0 Aces, Jakub Mensik LESS 8.5 Aces0.40410.00x3.039
3-pick MED-varianceMEDHugo Dellien MORE 8.5 Total Games Won, Michael Zheng MORE 20.0 Total Games, Naomi Osaka LESS 12.5 Total Games Won0.25010.00x1.497
3-pick HIGH-varianceHIGHCoco Gauff LESS 4.0 Aces, Jakub Mensik LESS 8.5 Aces, Elina Svitolina MORE 2.5 Aces0.23725.00x4.914
4-pick MED-varianceMEDHugo Dellien MORE 8.5 Total Games Won, Michael Zheng MORE 20.0 Total Games, Naomi Osaka LESS 12.5 Total Games Won, Alina Korneeva MORE 19.5 Total Games0.15218.00x1.740
4-pick HIGH-varianceHIGHCoco Gauff LESS 4.0 Aces, Jakub Mensik LESS 8.5 Aces, Elina Svitolina MORE 2.5 Aces, Rebecca Marino LESS 4.5 Double Faults0.13550.00x5.768
⚠ Inverted CLV signal: win rate at POSITIVE CLV (0.429) < win rate at NEGATIVE CLV (0.6562). When we beat the close, we LOSE; when we lose the close, we WIN. Model is anti-correlated with skill. Real money gated.
CLV vs Pinnacle close (overall)
n picks total1802
matched Pinnacle370 (20.5%)
mean CLV (pp)16.16
median CLV (pp)15.824
win rate at +CLV0.429
win rate at -CLV0.6562
CLV by market price bucket (FLB signal)
BucketnMean CLV (pp)
<10%3032.535
10-30%14621.473
30-50%12911.786
50-70%496.21
70-90%83.478
>90%81.915
Calibration buckets
n_total1321
ECE (pp)4.355
Brier Score0.2417
Log Loss0.6762
Predicted vs actual (10pp buckets)
BucketnPredictedActualGap (pp)
0.2-0.30200.28320.35+6.68
0.3-0.401540.35850.2792-7.93
0.4-0.505210.45130.4319-1.95
0.5-0.604870.54480.4949-4.99
0.6-0.701240.64050.5806-5.98
0.7-0.80140.71790.8571+13.93
0.8-0.9010.82321.0+17.68
SourceDB / fileLast pulledAgeRowsStatus
Kalshi KXATPMATCHtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-08-12T17:44:35.722317+00:006m1916fresh
Kalshi KXWTAMATCHtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-08-12T17:44:35.722317+00:006m1948fresh
Kalshi KXFRENCHOPENtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-08-12T17:44:35.722317+00:006m0fresh
Kalshi KXFOPENMENSINGLEtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-08-12T17:44:35.722317+00:006m0fresh
Kalshi KXATPGRANDSLAMtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-08-12T17:44:35.722317+00:006m14fresh
Kalshi KXUSOPENtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-08-12T17:44:35.722317+00:006m0fresh
Kalshi KXATPSETWINNERtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-08-12T17:44:35.722317+00:006m4250fresh
Kalshi KXATPTOTALSETStennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-08-12T17:44:35.722317+00:006m0fresh
Kalshi KXATPSETSWEEPtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-08-12T17:44:35.722317+00:006m1fresh
Kalshi KXATPGAMESPREADtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-08-12T17:44:35.722317+00:006m0fresh
Kalshi KXATPEXACTMATCHtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-08-12T17:44:35.722317+00:006m4108fresh
Kalshi KXWTADOUBLEStennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-08-12T17:44:35.722317+00:006m218fresh
Kalshi KXATP1RANKtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-08-12T17:44:35.722317+00:006m16fresh
elo last computedtennis.sqlite2026-06-21T17:36:52+00:001248.23h20430stale
rankings last pulledtennis.sqlite2026-06-15T17:40:18+00:001392.17h11348stale
rankings atp latest datetennis.sqlite2026-06-081577.84h&mdash;stale
rankings wta latest datetennis.sqlite2026-06-081577.84h&mdash;stale
mirror atp scheduletennis.sqlite2026-08-12T17:46:27.647992+00:004m0fresh
h2h last computedtennis.sqlite2026-05-17T10:11:57.514615+00:002095.64h&mdash;stale
h2h n pairstennis.sqlite190184missing&mdash;missing
last player db runtennis.sqlite1786556848missing&mdash;missing
results last_runtennis_results.sqlite[2026-08-12T17:46:28.422676+00:00] 2026-08-12T17:46:28.001589+00:00; dates=['20260811']; rows=0; resolved=0missing&mdash;missing
pp_edges CSVpp_edges_tennis_2026-08-12.csv2026-08-12T17:47:45.113574+00:003m&mdash;fresh
kalshi edges JSONtennis_kalshi_edges_2026-08-12.json2026-08-12T17:47:39.155754+00:003m&mdash;fresh
paper trades PPpaper_trades_pp_tennis_2026-08-12.json2026-08-12T17:50:10.751177+00:000m&mdash;fresh
paper trades Kalshipaper_trades_kalshi_tennis_2026-08-12.json2026-08-12T17:50:11.261258+00:000m&mdash;fresh
daily payloaddaily_tennis_2026-08-12.json2026-08-12T17:50:14.297471+00:000m&mdash;fresh
PP movementpp_line_movement_tennis_2026-08-12.csv2026-08-12T17:50:13.756139+00:000m&mdash;fresh
PP calibrationpp_calibration_tennis.json2026-08-12T17:50:13.672132+00:000m&mdash;fresh
Tennis EdgeBoard - generated 2026-08-12 17:50 UTC - meta-refresh every 120s - edgeboard-tennis.pages.dev