Tennis EdgeBoard - 2026-05-21

Kalshi KXATPMATCH 2m · 1836rKalshi KXWTAMATCH 2m · 1734rKalshi KXFRENCHOPEN 2mKalshi KXFOPENMENSINGLE 2mKalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM 2m · 14rKalshi KXUSOPEN 2mKalshi KXATPSETWINNER 2m · 3650rKalshi KXATPTOTALSETS 2mKalshi KXATPSETSWEEP 2mKalshi KXATPGAMESPREAD 2mKalshi KXATPEXACTMATCH 2m · 1190rKalshi KXWTADOUBLES 2mKalshi KXATP1RANK 2m · 16relo last computed 3.1h · 20051rrankings last pulled 3.1h · 3745rrankings atp latest date 17drankings wta latest date 17dmirror atp schedule 0m · 299rh2h last computed 4dh2h n pairs missinglast player db run missingresults last_run missingpp_edges CSV 0mkalshi edges JSON 0mpaper trades PP 3.0hpaper trades Kalshi 53mdaily payload 0mPP movement 0mPP calibration 3.0h

Matches today

scheduled

ELITE edges

across Kalshi + PP

STRONG edges

tier 2

MED edges

tier 3

Paper locks

Kalshi + PP

Real Money YTD

-$10.00

paper-gate restored

Qualifying skipped

filtered out today

Last refresh

16:12

2026-05-21 UTC

🏆 Best Bet (main-draw)

No main-draw Kalshi pick survived qualifying filter today.

🎯 Safest (P ≥ 65%)

Anhelina Kalinina

Anhelina Kalinina vs Diane Parry · Round 1 clay · LOW

71%

Heavy main-draw favorite · PAPER

Edge -19.5pp
Ask 90¢

💎 Biggest Payout (ELITE)

No ELITE main-draw longshot today.

#	Match	Tournament	Round	Surface	Start	ELO A	ELO B	ELO diff	Kalshi event
1	Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli	Bitpanda Hamburg Open	Quarterfinal	clay	May 21 15:15	1447	1721	-274	KXATPMATCH-26MAY21KOVUGO
2	Jil Teichmann vs Yasmine Kabbaj	Grand Prix Son Altesse Royale La Princesse Lalla Meryem	Quarterfinal	clay	May 21 15:50	1645	1616	+29	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY21TEIKAB
3	Alex Michelsen vs Learner Tien	Gonet Geneva Open	Quarterfinal	clay	May 21 16:05	1488	1466	+23	KXATPMATCH-26MAY21MICTIE
4	Victoria Mboko vs Leylah Fernandez	Internationaux de Strasbourg presented by Mammotion	Quarterfinal	clay	May 21 16:15	1704	1590	+113	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY21MBOFER
5	Luciano Darderi vs Alex De Minaur	Bitpanda Hamburg Open	Quarterfinal	clay	May 21 17:00	1767	1652	+115	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY21DARDE-1
6	Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik	Gonet Geneva Open	Quarterfinal	clay	May 21 17:30	1566	1724	-159	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY21RINBUB-2

#	Match	Our pick	Our P	Mkt P	Ask	Edge	Tier	Decision	Vol 24h	Surface	Round	EV/$
1	Yasmine Kabbaj vs Jil Teichmann	Yasmine Kabbaj	51.9%	12.0%	12¢	+39.9pp	LOW	PAPER	67620	clay	Quarterfinal	+0.399
2	Diana Shnaider vs Renata Zarazua	Renata Zarazua	50.7%	90.0%	90¢	-39.2pp	LOW	PAPER	0	clay	Round 1	-0.393
3	Panna Udvardy vs Anhelina Kalinina	Anhelina Kalinina	53.4%	92.0%	92¢	-38.6pp	LOW	PAPER	4	clay	Semifinal	-0.386
4	Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Camila Osorio	Camila Osorio	51.7%	90.0%	90¢	-38.3pp	LOW	PAPER	0	clay	Round 1	-0.383
5	Nikola Bartunkova vs Victoria Mboko	Nikola Bartunkova	50.2%	87.0%	87¢	-36.8pp	LOW	PAPER	0	clay	Round 1	-0.368
6	Emma Navarro vs Janice Tjen	Janice Tjen	52.0%	87.0%	87¢	-35.0pp	LOW	PAPER	0	clay	Round 1	-0.350
7	Naomi Osaka vs Laura Siegemund	Naomi Osaka	57.0%	90.0%	90¢	-33.0pp	LOW	PAPER	3	clay	Round 1	-0.330
8	Madison Keys vs Hanne Vandewinkel	Madison Keys	58.2%	91.0%	91¢	-32.8pp	LOW	PAPER	80	clay	Round 1	-0.328
9	Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli	Camilo Ugo Carabelli	70.2%	38.0%	38¢	+32.2pp	LOW	PAPER	534387	clay	Quarterfinal	+0.322
10	Tatjana Maria vs Elise Mertens	Elise Mertens	58.3%	90.0%	90¢	-31.7pp	LOW	PAPER	0	clay	Round 1	-0.317
11	Talia Gibson vs Yulia Putintseva	Yulia Putintseva	58.4%	90.0%	90¢	-31.6pp	LOW	PAPER	0	clay	Round 1	-0.316
12	Taylor Fritz vs Nishesh Basavareddy	Nishesh Basavareddy	50.8%	21.0%	21¢	+29.8pp	LOW	PAPER	135	clay	Round 1	+0.298
13	James Duckworth vs Gabriel Diallo	James Duckworth	59.5%	30.0%	30¢	+29.4pp	LOW	PAPER	50	clay	Round 1	+0.295
14	Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Marina Bassols Ribera Qual	Marina Bassols Ribera	54.9%	26.0%	26¢	+28.9pp	LOW	PAPER	158	clay	Qualifying Final	+0.289
15	Titouan Droguet vs Jakub Mensik	Jakub Mensik	58.8%	87.0%	87¢	-28.2pp	LOW	PAPER	0	hard	Round Of 128	-0.282
16	Alice Tubello vs Donna Vekic	Alice Tubello	63.4%	90.0%	90¢	-26.6pp	LOW	PAPER	0	clay	Round 1	-0.266
17	Alexander Zverev vs Benjamin Bonzi	Benjamin Bonzi	34.8%	9.0%	9¢	+25.8pp	LOW	PAPER	130	hard	Round Of 128	+0.258
18	Novak Djokovic vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	38.6%	13.0%	13¢	+25.6pp	LOW	PAPER	701	clay	Round 1	+0.256
19	Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro	Jessica Bouzas Maneiro	37.5%	12.0%	12¢	+25.5pp	LOW	PAPER	512	clay	Round 1	+0.255
20	Rebecca Sramkova vs Maria Carle Qual	Maria Carle	53.7%	29.0%	29¢	+24.7pp	LOW	PAPER	12	clay	Qualifying Final	+0.247
21	Jessica Pegula vs Kimberly Birrell	Jessica Pegula	66.9%	91.0%	91¢	-24.1pp	LOW	PAPER	80	clay	Round 1	-0.241
22	Adrian Mannarino vs Ugo Humbert	Adrian Mannarino	37.5%	14.0%	14¢	+23.5pp	LOW	PAPER	51	hard	Round Of 128	+0.235
23	Katerina Siniakova vs Simona Waltert	Simona Waltert	66.7%	90.0%	90¢	-23.3pp	LOW	PAPER	0	clay	Round 1	-0.233
24	Katie Boulter vs Akasha Urhobo	Akasha Urhobo	67.1%	90.0%	90¢	-22.9pp	LOW	PAPER	0	clay	Round 1	-0.229
25	Terence Atmane vs Thanasi Kokkinakis	Thanasi Kokkinakis	51.1%	30.0%	30¢	+21.1pp	LOW	PAPER	0	hard	Round Of 128	+0.211
26	Roman Safiullin vs Tom Gentzsch Qual	Tom Gentzsch	45.0%	24.0%	24¢	+21.0pp	LOW	PAPER	2326	clay	Qualifying Final	+0.210
27	Anhelina Kalinina vs Diane Parry	Anhelina Kalinina	70.5%	90.0%	90¢	-19.5pp	LOW	PAPER	0	clay	Round 1	-0.195
28	Damir Dzumhur vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	Damir Dzumhur	35.4%	17.0%	17¢	+18.4pp	LOW	PAPER	51	hard	Round Of 128	+0.183
29	Mattia Bellucci vs Quentin Halys	Quentin Halys	50.7%	69.0%	69¢	-18.2pp	LOW	PAPER	0	hard	Round Of 128	-0.183
30	Hugo Dellien vs Roberto Carballes Baena Qual	Roberto Carballes Baena	55.0%	37.0%	37¢	+18.0pp	LOW	PAPER	2288	hard	Qualification Final	+0.180
31	Leandro Riedi vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert Qual	Pierre-Hugues Herbert	45.0%	27.0%	27¢	+18.0pp	LOW	PAPER	1154	hard	Qualification Final	+0.180
32	Amanda Anisimova vs Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah	Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah	38.0%	20.0%	20¢	+18.0pp	LOW	PAPER	0	clay	Round 1	+0.180
33	Karen Khachanov vs Arthur Gea	Arthur Gea	48.9%	31.0%	31¢	+17.9pp	LOW	PAPER	80	hard	Round Of 128	+0.179
34	Learner Tien vs Alex Michelsen	Alex Michelsen	58.6%	42.0%	42¢	+16.6pp	LOW	PAPER	104155	clay	Quarterfinal	+0.166
35	Arthur Fils vs Stan Wawrinka	Stan Wawrinka	34.0%	18.0%	18¢	+16.0pp	LOW	PAPER	80	hard	Round Of 128	+0.160
36	Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Vilius Gaubas Qual	Vilius Gaubas	50.9%	35.0%	35¢	+15.9pp	LOW	PAPER	6861	hard	Qualification Final	+0.160
37	Emilio Nava vs Pedro Martinez Qual	Pedro Martinez	45.0%	30.0%	30¢	+15.0pp	LOW	PAPER	3648	clay	Qualifying Final	+0.150
38	Miomir Kecmanovic vs Fabian Marozsan	Miomir Kecmanovic	53.3%	68.0%	68¢	-14.7pp	LOW	PAPER	0	hard	Round Of 128	-0.147
39	Lois Boisson vs Anna Kalinskaya	Lois Boisson	62.7%	49.0%	49¢	+13.7pp	LOW	PAPER	0	clay	Round 1	+0.137
40	Rinky Hijikata vs Tommy Paul	Rinky Hijikata	31.5%	18.0%	18¢	+13.5pp	LOW	PAPER	0	clay	Round 1	+0.135
41	Lucia Bronzetti vs Katarina Zavatska Qual	Katarina Zavatska	55.0%	42.0%	42¢	+13.0pp	LOW	PAPER	41	clay	Qualifying Final	+0.130
42	Rafael Jodar vs Aleksandar Kovacevic	Aleksandar Kovacevic	37.5%	25.0%	25¢	+12.5pp	LOW	PAPER	54	hard	Round Of 128	+0.125
43	Harmony Tan vs Linda Fruhvirtova Qual	Harmony Tan	50.5%	38.0%	38¢	+12.5pp	LOW	PAPER	560	clay	Qualifying Final	+0.125
44	Maya Joint vs Anastasia Potapova	Maya Joint	50.0%	39.0%	39¢	+11.0pp	LOW	PAPER	0	clay	Round 1	+0.110
45	Coco Gauff vs Taylor Townsend	Taylor Townsend	29.8%	19.0%	19¢	+10.8pp	LOW	PAPER	80	clay	Round 1	+0.108
46	Darwin Blanch vs Luka Pavlovic Qual	Luka Pavlovic	47.7%	37.0%	37¢	+10.7pp	LOW	PAPER	1039	hard	Qualification Final	+0.107
47	Alex de Minaur vs Luciano Darderi	Alex de Minaur	64.6%	54.0%	54¢	+10.6pp	LOW	PAPER	68673	hard	Quarterfinal	+0.106
48	Pablo Carreno Busta vs Jiri Lehecka	Pablo Carreno Busta	49.0%	39.0%	39¢	+10.0pp	LOW	PAPER	0	clay	Round 1	+0.100
49	Borna Gojo vs Jurij Rodionov Qual	Borna Gojo	55.0%	46.0%	46¢	+9.0pp	LOW	PAPER	1701	hard	Qualification Final	+0.090
50	Ann Li vs Shuai Zhang	Shuai Zhang	58.4%	50.0%	50¢	+8.4pp	LOW	PAPER	0	hard	Round Of 128	+0.084
51	Mariano Navone vs Casper Ruud	Mariano Navone	37.0%	30.0%	30¢	+7.0pp	LOW	PAPER	60	hard	Semifinal	+0.070
52	Alexander Shevchenko vs Alex Michelsen	Alexander Shevchenko	40.6%	47.0%	47¢	-6.5pp	LOW	PAPER	50	hard	Round Of 128	-0.065
53	Jenson Brooksby vs Mariano Navone	Jenson Brooksby	34.2%	28.0%	28¢	+6.2pp	LOW	PAPER	0	clay	Round 1	+0.062
54	Felix Gill vs Kyrian Jacquet Qual	Felix Gill	45.0%	39.0%	39¢	+6.0pp	LOW	PAPER	5001	hard	Qualification Final	+0.060
55	Alexander Bublik vs Arthur Rinderknech	Arthur Rinderknech	44.8%	39.0%	39¢	+5.8pp	LOW	PAPER	25311	hard	Quarterfinal	+0.058
56	Nuno Borges vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry	Nuno Borges	43.3%	49.0%	49¢	-5.7pp	LOW	PAPER	0	hard	Round Of 128	-0.057
57	Maria Sakkari vs Linda Noskova	Maria Sakkari	43.8%	49.0%	49¢	-5.2pp	LOW	PAPER	1	clay	Round 1	-0.052
58	Guiomar Maristany Zuleta de Reales vs Kaitlin Quevedo Qual	Guiomar Maristany Zuleta de Reales	52.1%	47.0%	47¢	+5.2pp	LOW	PAPER	1154	clay	Qualifying Final	+0.051
59	Daria Kasatkina vs Zeynep Sonmez	Zeynep Sonmez	45.0%	49.0%	49¢	-4.0pp	LOW	PAPER	0	clay	Round 1	-0.040
60	Alexandra Eala vs Iva Jovic	Alexandra Eala	36.3%	40.0%	40¢	-3.7pp	LOW	PAPER	1	clay	Round 1	-0.037
61	Victoria Mboko vs Leylah Fernandez	Leylah Fernandez	41.5%	38.0%	38¢	+3.5pp	LOW	PAPER	91676	clay	Quarterfinal	+0.035
62	Lulu Sun vs Claire Liu Qual	Lulu Sun	41.4%	38.0%	38¢	+3.4pp	LOW	PAPER	480	clay	Qualifying Final	+0.034
63	Andrey Rublev vs Ignacio Buse	Ignacio Buse	41.2%	39.0%	39¢	+2.2pp	LOW	PAPER	527	hard	Round Of 128	+0.022
64	Susan Bandecchi vs Viktoria Hruncakova Qual	Viktoria Hruncakova	45.0%	43.0%	43¢	+2.0pp	LOW	SKIP	192	clay	Qualifying Final	+0.020
65	Zizou Bergs vs Tomas Machac	Zizou Bergs	50.6%	49.0%	49¢	+1.6pp	LOW	SKIP	0	hard	Round Of 128	+0.016
66	Xiyu Wang vs Polina Kudermetova Qual	Polina Kudermetova	45.0%	44.0%	44¢	+1.0pp	LOW	SKIP	190	hard	Qualification Final	+0.010
67	Yannick Hanfmann vs Hamad Medjedovic	Yannick Hanfmann	48.5%	48.0%	48¢	+0.5pp	LOW	SKIP	0	clay	Round 1	+0.005

#	Player	Stat	PP line	Our proj	Edge %	Side	Tier	Opp	Surface	Demon	Payout
1	Luciano Darderi🟨 WARM	Aces	2.5	6.36	+154.4%	MORE	LOW	Alex de Minaur	clay	—	0.5x
2	Alexander Bublik🧊 COLD	Total Tie Breaks	0.5	0.12	+75.4%	LESS	LOW	Arthur Rinderknech	clay	—	1.0x
3	Alexander Bublik🧊 COLD	Total Tie Breaks	0.5	0.12	+75.3%	LESS	LOW	Jan-Lennard Struff	clay	—	1.0x
4	Leylah Fernandez🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	3.0	4.55	+51.5%	MORE	LOW	Victoria Mboko	clay	—	1.0x
5	Cameron Norrie🟨 WARM	Total Tie Breaks	0.5	0.25	+50.4%	LESS	LOW	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	clay	—	1.0x
6	Alexei Popyrin	Total Tie Breaks	0.5	0.25	+49.9%	LESS	LOW	Zachary Svajda	clay	—	1.0x
7	Marcos Giron	Total Games	39.5	24.59	+37.7%	LESS	LOW	Yibing Wu	clay	—	1.0x
8	Patrick Kypson🧊 COLD	Total Games	39.5	25.15	+36.3%	LESS	LOW	Luca Van Assche	clay	—	1.0x
9	Tallon Griekspoor🧊 COLD	Total Games	39.5	25.22	+36.2%	LESS	LOW	Matteo Arnaldi	clay	—	1.0x
10	Cameron Norrie🟨 WARM	Total Games	38.5	24.88	+35.4%	LESS	LOW	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	clay	—	0.5x
11	Francisco Comesana🧊 COLD	Total Games	38.5	25.14	+34.7%	LESS	LOW	Ethan Quinn	clay	—	0.5x
12	Brandon Nakashima	Total Games	38.5	25.17	+34.6%	LESS	LOW	Roberto Bautista Agut	clay	—	1.0x
13	Andrey Rublev🟨 WARM	Total Games	38.5	25.17	+34.6%	LESS	LOW	Ignacio Buse	clay	—	0.5x
14	Hubert Hurkacz🟨 WARM	Total Games	37.5	24.59	+34.4%	LESS	LOW	Jaume Munar	clay	—	1.0x
15	Matteo Berrettini	Total Games	37.5	24.60	+34.4%	LESS	LOW	Marton Fucsovics	clay	—	1.0x
16	Hugo Gaston	Total Games	38.5	25.34	+34.2%	LESS	LOW	Gael Monfils	clay	—	0.5x
17	Juan Manuel Cerundolo🟨 WARM	Total Games	37.5	24.91	+33.6%	LESS	LOW	Jacob Fearnley	clay	—	1.0x
18	Corentin Moutet	Total Games	37.5	25.09	+33.1%	LESS	LOW	Vit Kopriva	clay	—	1.0x
19	Luciano Darderi🟨 WARM	Total Games	36.5	24.50	+32.9%	LESS	LOW	Sebastian Ofner	clay	—	1.0x
20	Novak Djokovic⏳ RTRN	Total Games	36.5	24.51	+32.9%	LESS	LOW	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	clay	—	0.5x
21	Hamad Medjedovic⏳ RTRN	Total Games	37.5	25.20	+32.8%	LESS	LOW	Yannick Hanfmann	clay	—	0.5x
22	Alexander Bublik🧊 COLD	Total Games	36.5	24.54	+32.8%	LESS	LOW	Jan-Lennard Struff	clay	—	0.5x
23	Alejandro Tabilo🟨 WARM	Total Games	36.5	25.20	+31.0%	LESS	LOW	Kamil Majchrzak	clay	—	0.5x
24	Felix Auger-Aliassime🟨 WARM	Total Games	36.5	25.20	+31.0%	LESS	LOW	Daniel Altmaier	clay	—	0.5x
25	Novak Djokovic⏳ RTRN	Total Sets	3.5	2.46	+29.6%	LESS	LOW	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	clay	—	1.0x
26	Alexei Popyrin	Total Games	35.5	25.05	+29.4%	LESS	LOW	Zachary Svajda	clay	—	0.5x
27	Francisco Cerundolo🟨 WARM	Total Sets	3.5	2.49	+29.0%	LESS	LOW	Botic Van de Zandschulp	clay	—	1.0x
28	Stefanos Tsitsipas	Total Sets	3.5	2.49	+28.8%	LESS	LOW	Alexandre Muller	clay	—	1.0x
29	Frances Tiafoe⏳ RTRN	Total Sets	3.5	2.50	+28.7%	LESS	LOW	Eliot Spizzirri	clay	—	1.0x
30	Alexei Popyrin	Total Sets	3.5	2.50	+28.4%	LESS	LOW	Zachary Svajda	clay	—	1.0x
31	Francisco Cerundolo🟨 WARM	Total Games	34.5	25.06	+27.4%	LESS	LOW	Botic Van de Zandschulp	clay	—	0.5x
32	Frances Tiafoe⏳ RTRN	Total Games	34.5	25.11	+27.2%	LESS	LOW	Eliot Spizzirri	clay	—	0.5x
33	Stefanos Tsitsipas	Total Games	34.5	25.17	+27.1%	LESS	LOW	Alexandre Muller	clay	—	0.5x
34	Arthur Rinderknech	Aces	8.5	6.23	+26.6%	LESS	LOW	Alexander Bublik	clay	—	0.5x
35	Francisco Comesana🧊 COLD	Total Tie Breaks	0.5	0.37	+25.5%	LESS	LOW	Ethan Quinn	clay	—	1.0x
36	Felix Auger-Aliassime🟨 WARM	Total Tie Breaks	0.5	0.37	+25.1%	LESS	LOW	Daniel Altmaier	clay	—	1.0x
37	Alejandro Tabilo🟨 WARM	Total Tie Breaks	0.5	0.37	+25.1%	LESS	LOW	Kamil Majchrzak	clay	—	1.0x
38	Hugo Gaston	Total Tie Breaks	0.5	0.38	+24.7%	LESS	LOW	Gael Monfils	clay	—	1.0x
39	Alex de Minaur	Total Games Won	12.5	9.76	+21.9%	LESS	LOW	Luciano Darderi	clay	—	0.5x
40	Rebecca Sramkova	Total Games	20.5	24.57	+19.9%	MORE	LOW	Maria Carle	clay	—	0.5x
41	Aliaksandra Sasnovich	Total Games	20.5	24.34	+18.7%	MORE	LOW	Marina Bassols Ribera	clay	—	0.5x
42	Roman Safiullin🟨 WARM	Total Games	21.5	25.19	+17.1%	MORE	LOW	Tom Gentzsch	clay	—	0.5x
43	Pablo Llamas Ruiz🟨 WARM	Total Games	21.5	25.18	+17.1%	MORE	LOW	Vilius Gaubas	clay	—	0.5x
44	Casper Ruud🟨 WARM	Total Games	21.5	25.17	+17.1%	MORE	LOW	Mariano Navone	clay	—	0.5x
45	Leandro Riedi🟨 WARM	Total Games	21.5	25.16	+17.0%	MORE	LOW	Pierre-Hugues Herbert	clay	—	0.5x
46	Daniil Medvedev	Total Games	29.5	24.48	+17.0%	LESS	LOW	Adam Walton	clay	—	0.5x
47	Borna Gojo🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	12.5	10.38	+17.0%	LESS	LOW	Jurij Rodionov	clay	—	1.0x
48	Vilius Gaubas	Total Games Won	12.0	10.06	+16.1%	LESS	LOW	Pablo Llamas Ruiz	clay	—	1.0x
49	Emilio Nava	Total Games	21.5	24.94	+16.0%	MORE	LOW	Pedro Martinez	clay	—	0.5x
50	Jurij Rodionov🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	12.5	10.54	+15.6%	LESS	LOW	Borna Gojo	clay	—	1.0x
51	Victoria Mboko🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	4.5	5.20	+15.6%	MORE	LOW	Leylah Fernandez	clay	—	1.0x
52	Marina Bassols Ribera🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	9.5	10.91	+14.8%	MORE	LOW	Aliaksandra Sasnovich	clay	—	1.0x
53	Aliaksandra Sasnovich	Break Points Won	5.5	4.73	+14.0%	LESS	LOW	Marina Bassols Ribera	clay	—	1.0x
54	Hugo Dellien⏳ RTRN	Total Games	21.5	24.49	+13.9%	MORE	LOW	Roberto Carballes Baena	clay	—	0.5x
55	Linda Fruhvirtova🧊 COLD	Total Games	21.5	24.49	+13.9%	MORE	LOW	Harmony Tan	clay	—	0.5x
56	Claire Liu🟨 WARM	Total Games	21.5	24.30	+13.0%	MORE	LOW	Lulu Sun	clay	—	0.5x
57	Roberto Carballes Baena⏳ RTRN	Total Games Won	11.5	10.05	+12.6%	LESS	LOW	Hugo Dellien	clay	—	1.0x
58	Roman Safiullin🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	12.5	10.95	+12.4%	LESS	LOW	Tom Gentzsch	clay	—	1.0x
59	Kyrian Jacquet⏳ RTRN	Total Games	22.5	25.17	+11.9%	MORE	LOW	Felix Gill	clay	—	0.5x
60	Darwin Blanch🟨 WARM	Total Games	22.5	25.17	+11.9%	MORE	LOW	Luka Pavlovic	clay	—	0.5x
61	Susan Bandecchi🟨 WARM	Total Games	21.5	24.03	+11.8%	MORE	LOW	Viktoria Hruncakova	clay	—	0.5x
62	Luciano Darderi🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	12.5	11.27	+9.9%	LESS	LOW	Alex de Minaur	clay	—	0.5x
63	Linda Noskova🟨 WARM	Total Games	22.5	24.52	+9.0%	MORE	LOW	Maria Sakkari	clay	—	0.5x
64	Alexander Bublik🧊 COLD	Aces	6.5	5.95	+8.4%	LESS	LOW	Arthur Rinderknech	clay	—	0.5x
65	Lucia Bronzetti	Total Games	21.5	23.08	+7.4%	MORE	LOW	Katarina Zavatska	clay	—	0.5x
66	Borna Gojo🟨 WARM	Total Games	23.5	25.12	+6.9%	MORE	LOW	Jurij Rodionov	clay	—	0.5x
67	Victoria Mboko🟨 WARM	Double Faults	4.5	4.24	+5.9%	LESS	LOW	Leylah Fernandez	clay	—	1.0x
68	Tom Gentzsch🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	9.5	10.05	+5.8%	MORE	LOW	Roman Safiullin	clay	—	1.0x
69	Alexander Bublik🧊 COLD	Total Games	23.5	24.49	+4.2%	MORE	LOW	Arthur Rinderknech	clay	—	0.5x

Kalshi tennis — 2 picks · $4.00 staked

Day 1 - paper only, grade EOD before scaling · locked 2026-05-21T13:10:45.965796+00:00

#	Match	Pick	Our P	Ask	Edge	Tier	Surface	Stake	Status	P&L
1	Coleman Wong vs Juan Carlos Prado Angelo	Coleman Wong	45.0%	22¢	23.0pp	ELITE	clay	$2.00	OPEN	+0.00
2	Leandro Riedi vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert	Pierre-Hugues Herbert	45.0%	27¢	18.0pp	ELITE	hard	$2.00	OPEN	+0.00

PrizePicks tennis — 2 picks · $2.00 staked

Day 1 - paper only, grade EOD before scaling · locked 2026-05-21T13:10:45.902879+00:00

#	Player	Stat	Line	Our proj	Side	Edge	Tier	Surface	Stake	Status	P&L
1	Leandro Riedi	Total Games	21.5	25.16	MORE	17.0%	ELITE	clay	$1.00	OPEN	+0.00
2	Shuai Zhang	Total Games Won	10.0	10.72	MORE	7.2%	MED	clay	$1.00	OPEN	+0.00

Polymarket = retail/crypto sentiment. We can't bet there from CA, but the divergence vs Kalshi (sharp) reveals where the public is loading up. Generated 2026-05-21T09:12:43 · flagged threshold = ±3.0pp · 2 flagged futures / 0 flagged matches.

Grand-slam futures · ANY 2026 Slam (Kalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM vs Polymarket per-slam aggregate)

Polymarket "any-slam" probability computed naively as 1 - product(1 - p_slam). Positive divergence = public (Polymarket) more bullish than sharp (Kalshi). Sorted by |divergence|.

Player	Sharp (Kalshi)	Public (Poly)	Δ	Poly per-slam
Novak Djokovic · exact	11.5%	18.5%	+7.0pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Fre 6%, Wim 10%, US 4%
Ben Shelton · exact	4.5%	7.6%	+3.1pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Fre 1%, Wim 3%, US 4%
Lorenzo Musetti · exact	4.5%	1.6%	-2.9pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 0%, Wim 1%, US 1%
Jannik Sinner · exact	92.5%	95.2%	+2.7pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Fre 70%, Wim 66%, US 52%
Daniil Medvedev · exact	8.0%	5.8%	-2.2pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 2%, Wim 2%, US 2%
Alexander Zverev · exact	12.5%	14.5%	+2.0pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Fre 7%, Wim 4%, US 4%
Alex de Minaur · exact	3.0%	1.4%	-1.6pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 1%, Wim 1%
Felix Auger-Aliassime · exact	2.0%	0.5%	-1.5pp · SHARP HIGHER	Wim 1%
Karen Khachanov · exact	2.0%	0.7%	-1.3pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 0%, Wim 1%
Alexander Bublik · exact	3.0%	1.9%	-1.1pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 0%, Wim 0%, US 1%
Jack Draper · exact	4.5%	5.4%	+0.9pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Fre 0%, Wim 3%, US 3%
Frances Tiafoe · exact	0.5%	1.3%	+0.8pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Fre 0%, Wim 0%, US 1%
Taylor Fritz · exact	4.5%	4.9%	+0.4pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Fre 1%, Wim 3%, US 2%
Casper Ruud · exact	3.5%	3.4%	-0.1pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 3%, Wim 0%

Per-match overlaps

No active per-match overlaps right now (Polymarket tennis volume concentrates in Grand Slam futures).

Per-stat-type MAE (n_graded=17)

Bar width = MAE (lower = better). "INSUFFICIENT" = need more graded picks.

Total Games

n=4

Ours

Us 6.45
PP 3.25
INSUFFICIENT_N

Total Games Won

n=12

Ours

Us 4.93
PP 4.50
NULL

Total Tie Breaks

n=1

Ours

Us 0.25
PP 0.50
INSUFFICIENT_N

Per-tier MAE

Bar width = MAE (lower = better). "INSUFFICIENT" = need more graded picks.

ELITE

n=16

Ours

Us 4.94
PP 3.75
NULL

MED

n=0

Ours

Us —
PP —
INSUFFICIENT_N

STRONG

n=1

Ours

Us 6.23
PP 7.50
INSUFFICIENT_N

[!]

No AAR available yet.
Expected: ~/.claude/projects/.../memory/aar_tennis_<date>.md

#	Player	Stat	Opp	Open	Latest	Diff	Abs	Direction
1	Kyrian Jacquet	Total Games	Felix Gill	23.5	22.5	-1.00	1.00	DOWN
2	Alexei Popyrin	Total Games	Zachary Svajda	34.5	35.5	+1.00	1.00	UP
3	Victoria Mboko	Fantasy Score	Leylah Fernandez	16.5	17.0	+0.50	0.50	UP

ATP top 50

Rk	Player	Country	Pts	ELO overall	ELO clay	ELO grass	ELO hard
1	Jannik Sinner	ITA	14350	2175	1857	1695	2062
2	Carlos Alcaraz	ESP	12960	2070	1867	1717	1956
3	Alexander Zverev	GER	5805	1961	1816	1594	1863
4	Novak Djokovic	SRB	4700	1955	1738	1636	1846
5	Felix Auger Aliassime	CAN	4050	1864	1605	1517	1803
6	Ben Shelton	USA	4030	1848	1683	1561	1765
7	Taylor Fritz	USA	3770	1826	1581	1722	1749
8	Alex De Minaur	AUS	3755	1847	1652	1590	1806
9	Daniil Medvedev	RUS	3460	1878	1641	1585	1845
10	Lorenzo Musetti	ITA	3415	1828	1756	1607	1723
11	Alexander Bublik	KAZ	3355	1803	1724	1569	1703
12	Flavio Cobolli	ITA	2750	1796	1720	1557	1655
13	Jiri Lehecka	CZE	2715	1837	1647	1574	1754
14	Andrey Rublev	RUS	2590	1762	1658	1516	1683
15	Karen Khachanov	RUS	2220	1691	1586	1567	1639
16	Valentin Vacherot	MON	2147	1810	1702	1467	1738
17	Arthur Fils	FRA	2130	1912	1762	1546	1771
18	Tommy Paul	USA	1975	1842	1748	1587	1743
19	Cameron Norrie	GBR	1918	1776	1658	1529	1682
20	Luciano Darderi	ITA	1890	1714	1767	1466	1466
21	Learner Tien	USA	1870	1800	1466	1506	1789
22	Frances Tiafoe	USA	1865	1771	1604	1488	1719
23	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	ESP	1820	1756	1572	1545	1703
24	Arthur Rinderknech	FRA	1736	1713	1566	1530	1631
25	Casper Ruud	NOR	1735	1792	1744	1502	1685
26	Tomas Martin Etcheverry	ARG	1660	1785	1693	1456	1636
27	Francisco Cerundolo	ARG	1620	1801	1726	1426	1698
28	Jakub Mensik	CZE	1600	1795	1589	1497	1747
29	Joao Fonseca	BRA	1435	1818	1638	1495	1795
30	Corentin Moutet	FRA	1413	1706	1600	1574	1640
31	Tallon Griekspoor	NED	1360	1681	1575	1564	1645
32	Brandon Nakashima	USA	1295	1706	1570	1590	1660
33	Ugo Humbert	FRA	1280	1712	1451	1517	1697
34	Rafael Jodar	ESP	1273	1874	1714	—	1765
35	Alejandro Tabilo	CHI	1248	1786	1696	1575	1637
36	Alexander Blockx	BEL	1200	1820	1689	1508	1713
37	Denis Shapovalov	CAN	1170	1690	1498	1472	1698
38	Jaume Munar	ESP	1155	1695	1563	1508	1635
39	Zizou Bergs	BEL	1140	1705	1570	1521	1631
40	Holger Rune	DEN	1110	1744	1663	1515	1710
41	Tomas Machac	CZE	1100	1737	1592	1500	1682
42	Alex Michelsen	USA	1090	1715	1488	1538	1702
43	Sebastian Korda	USA	1050	1806	1537	1556	1757
44	Mariano Navone	ARG	1046	1718	1716	1460	1507
45	Adrian Mannarino	FRA	1035	1589	1390	1584	1569
46	Gabriel Diallo	CAN	1000	1651	1554	1576	1615
47	Marin Cilic	CRO	980	1710	1539	1611	1635
48	Ethan Quinn	USA	977	1731	1594	1509	1683
49	Fabian Marozsan	HUN	975	1672	1566	1450	1608
50	Jack Draper	GBR	960	1806	1634	1594	1750

WTA top 50

Rk	Player	Country	Pts	ELO overall	ELO clay	ELO grass	ELO hard
1	Aryna Sabalenka	BLR	10110	2115	1808	1588	2045
2	Elena Rybakina	KAZ	8555	2063	1760	1580	1972
3	Iga Swiatek	POL	6948	1924	1780	1658	1852
4	Coco Gauff	USA	6749	1957	1787	1519	1871
5	Jessica Pegula	USA	6136	1997	1701	1583	1901
6	Amanda Anisimova	USA	5985	1916	1561	1638	1822
7	Mirra Andreeva	RUS	4181	1932	1800	1513	1797
8	Jasmine Paolini	ITA	3722	1815	1707	1585	1741
9	Victoria Mboko	CAN	3531	1936	1704	1515	1891
10	Elina Svitolina	UKR	3530	1922	1727	1550	1824
11	Karolina Muchova	CZE	3318	1951	1597	1494	1869
12	Belinda Bencic	SUI	3090	1898	1584	1561	1831
13	Linda Noskova	CZE	2999	1881	1589	1583	1763
14	Ekaterina Alexandrova	RUS	2669	1747	1593	1584	1662
15	Marta Kostyuk	UKR	2507	1924	1757	1449	1755
16	Naomi Osaka	JPN	2341	1819	1628	1514	1734
17	Iva Jovic	USA	2235	1829	1663	1601	1759
18	Clara Tauson	DEN	2030	1746	1560	1520	1679
19	Madison Keys	USA	1946	1836	1706	1558	1766
20	Diana Shnaider	RUS	1946	1782	1647	1565	1686
21	Liudmila Samsonova	RUS	1895	1697	1604	1619	1566
22	Elise Mertens	BEL	1858	1802	1580	1581	1714
23	Leylah Fernandez	CAN	1851	1790	1590	1546	1679
24	Anna Kalinskaya	RUS	1758	1784	1538	1546	1721
25	Hailey Baptiste	USA	1747	1785	1662	1488	1667
26	Marie Bouzkova	CZE	1651	1773	1699	1476	1648
27	Sorana Cirstea	ROU	1595	1866	1612	1429	1797
28	Jaqueline Cristian	ROU	1437	1770	1635	1432	1698
29	Ann Li	USA	1435	1745	1638	1478	1647
30	Emma Raducanu	GBR	1430	1753	1570	1577	1658
31	Cristina Bucsa	ESP	1406	1738	1475	1514	1684
32	Qinwen Zheng	CHN	1405	1819	1737	1497	1737
33	Xin Yu Wang	CHN	1401	1735	1546	1591	1616
34	Maya Joint	AUS	1380	1711	1688	1579	1641
35	Emma Navarro	USA	1377	1680	1578	1590	1613
36	Jelena Ostapenko	LAT	1369	1723	1632	1534	1621
37	Sara Bejlek	CZE	1360	1832	1797	1486	1653
38	Anastasia Potapova	RUS	1355	1787	1690	1484	1640
39	Katerina Siniakova	CZE	1342	1777	1549	1578	1693
40	Janice Tjen	INA	1317	1817	1662	—	1785
41	Elisabetta Cocciaretto	ITA	1290	1800	1584	1577	1689
42	Alexandra Eala	PHI	1285	1786	1478	1600	1748
43	Lois Boisson	FRA	1268	1791	1811	1483	1554
44	Marketa Vondrousova	CZE	1263	1728	1606	1578	1609
45	Magdalena Frech	POL	1263	1649	1534	1434	1613
46	Laura Siegemund	GER	1250	1680	1535	1541	1592
47	Maria Sakkari	GRE	1238	1707	1563	1486	1658
48	Tereza Valentova	CZE	1231	1845	1746	1517	1788
49	Peyton Stearns	USA	1211	1710	1636	1471	1621
50	Mccartney Kessler	USA	1204	1754	1516	1583	1688

Source	DB / file	Last pulled	Age	Rows	Status
Kalshi KXATPMATCH	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-21T16:10:24.709484+00:00	2m	1836	fresh
Kalshi KXWTAMATCH	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-21T16:10:24.709484+00:00	2m	1734	fresh
Kalshi KXFRENCHOPEN	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-21T16:10:24.709484+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXFOPENMENSINGLE	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-21T16:10:24.709484+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-21T16:10:24.709484+00:00	2m	14	fresh
Kalshi KXUSOPEN	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-21T16:10:24.709484+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATPSETWINNER	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-21T16:10:24.709484+00:00	2m	3650	fresh
Kalshi KXATPTOTALSETS	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-21T16:10:24.709484+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATPSETSWEEP	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-21T16:10:24.709484+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATPGAMESPREAD	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-21T16:10:24.709484+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATPEXACTMATCH	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-21T16:10:24.709484+00:00	2m	1190	fresh
Kalshi KXWTADOUBLES	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-21T16:10:24.709484+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATP1RANK	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-21T16:10:24.709484+00:00	2m	16	fresh
elo last computed	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-21T13:08:43+00:00	3.07h	20051	aging
rankings last pulled	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-21T13:08:46+00:00	3.07h	3745	aging
rankings atp latest date	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-04	424.21h	—	stale
rankings wta latest date	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-04	424.21h	—	stale
mirror atp schedule	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-21T16:11:59.470897+00:00	0m	299	fresh
h2h last computed	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-17T10:11:57.514615+00:00	102.01h	—	stale
h2h n pairs	tennis.sqlite	190184	missing	—	missing
last player db run	tennis.sqlite	1779369037	missing	—	missing
results last_run	tennis_results.sqlite	[2026-05-21T13:10:22.033130+00:00] 2026-05-21T13:10:20.143665+00:00; dates=['20260520']; rows=540; resolved=524	missing	—	missing
pp_edges CSV	pp_edges_tennis_2026-05-21.csv	2026-05-21T16:12:43.240031+00:00	0m	—	fresh
kalshi edges JSON	tennis_kalshi_edges_2026-05-21.json	2026-05-21T16:12:40.184805+00:00	0m	—	fresh
paper trades PP	paper_trades_pp_tennis_2026-05-21.json	2026-05-21T13:10:46.436042+00:00	3.03h	—	aging
paper trades Kalshi	paper_trades_kalshi_tennis_2026-05-21.json	2026-05-21T15:19:31.157444+00:00	53m	—	fresh
daily payload	daily_tennis_2026-05-21.json	2026-05-21T16:12:20.791451+00:00	0m	—	fresh
PP movement	pp_line_movement_tennis_2026-05-21.csv	2026-05-21T16:12:15.548660+00:00	0m	—	fresh
PP calibration	pp_calibration_tennis.json	2026-05-21T13:10:47.050987+00:00	3.03h	—	aging