Tennis EdgeBoard - 2026-07-21

Kalshi KXATPMATCH 6m · 2008rKalshi KXWTAMATCH 6m · 2032rKalshi KXFRENCHOPEN 6mKalshi KXFOPENMENSINGLE 6mKalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM 6m · 14rKalshi KXUSOPEN 6mKalshi KXATPSETWINNER 6m · 4614rKalshi KXATPTOTALSETS 6mKalshi KXATPSETSWEEP 6m · 2rKalshi KXATPGAMESPREAD 6mKalshi KXATPEXACTMATCH 6m · 4566rKalshi KXWTADOUBLES 6m · 266rKalshi KXATP1RANK 6m · 16relo last computed 29d · 20430rrankings last pulled 35d · 11348rrankings atp latest date 43drankings wta latest date 43dmirror atp schedule 4m · 65rh2h last computed 65dh2h n pairs missinglast player db run missingresults last_run missingpp_edges CSV 0mkalshi edges JSON 0mpaper trades PP 0mpaper trades Kalshi 0mdaily payload 0mPP movement 0mPP calibration 0m

Matches today

scheduled

ELITE edges

across Kalshi + PP

STRONG edges

tier 2

MED edges

tier 3

Paper locks

Kalshi + PP

Real Money YTD

-$10.00

paper-gate restored

Qualifying skipped

filtered out today

Last refresh

13:15

2026-07-21 UTC

🏆 Best Bet (main-draw)

No main-draw Kalshi pick survived qualifying filter today.

🎯 Safest (P ≥ 65%)

Alexander Bublik

Alexander Bublik vs Facundo Diaz Acosta · Round Of 16 hard · LOW

67%

Heavy main-draw favorite · PAPER

Edge +6.2pp
Ask 61¢

💎 Biggest Payout (ELITE)

No ELITE main-draw longshot today.

#	Match	Tournament	Round	Surface	Start	ELO A	ELO B	ELO diff	Kalshi event
1	Timofey Skatov vs Jesper De Jong	Millennium Estoril Open	Round 1	clay	Jul 21 11:05	1631	1672	-42	KXATPMATCH-26JUL21SKADEJ
2	Gonzalo Bueno vs Tiago Pereira	Millennium Estoril Open	Round 1	clay	Jul 21 11:05	1637	1427	+209	KXATPMATCH-26JUL21BUEPER
3	Valentina Steiner vs Noma Noha Akugue	MSC Hamburg Ladies Open	Round 1	clay	Jul 21 11:15	1675	1671	+4	KXWTAMATCH-26JUL20STENOH
4	Sebastian Baez vs Miomir Kecmanovic	Generali Open	Round 1	hard	Jul 21 11:20	1538	1595	-57	KXATPMATCH-26JUL19BAEKEC
5	Laslo Djere vs Quentin Halys	Generali Open	Round 1	hard	Jul 21 11:40	1489	1631	-142	KXATPSETWINNER-26JUL21DJEHAL-2
6	Maria Lourdes Carle vs Jule Niemeier	MSC Hamburg Ladies Open	Round 1	clay	Jul 21 12:00	1617	1500	+117	KXWTAMATCH-26JUL21CARNIE
7	Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Alina Charaeva	MSC Hamburg Ladies Open	Round 1	clay	Jul 21 12:05	1679	1730	-51	KXWTAMATCH-26JUL20SORCHA
8	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo vs Kilian Feldbausch	Generali Open	Round 1	hard	Jul 21 12:20	1464	1513	-49	KXATPSETWINNER-26JUL21VALFEL-2
9	Jana Kovackova vs Lanlana Tararudee	Livesport Prague Open	Round 1	hard	Jul 21 12:45	1672	1814	-142	KXWTAMATCH-26JUL20KOVTAR
10	Nuno Borges vs Orlando Luz	Millennium Estoril Open	Round 1	clay	Jul 21 12:50	1596	1503	+93	KXATPMATCH-26JUL21BORLUZ
11	Anna Blinkova vs Sara Bejlek	Livesport Prague Open	Round 1	hard	Jul 21 12:55	1577	1653	-76	KXWTAMATCH-26JUL20BLIBEJ
12	Alex Molcan vs Sebastian Ofner	Generali Open	Round 1	hard	Jul 21 13:20	1533	1568	-35	KXATPSETWINNER-26JUL19MOLOFN-1
13	Tamara Korpatsch vs Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva	MSC Hamburg Ladies Open	Round 1	clay	Jul 21 13:20	1723	1582	+141	KXWTAMATCH-26JUL20KORJIM
14	? vs Kyrian Jacquet	Millennium Estoril Open	Round 1	clay	Jul 21 13:25	—	1520	—	KXATPSETWINNER-26JUL21MERJAC-2
15	Hugo Gaston vs Damir Dzumhur	Millennium Estoril Open	Round 1	clay	Jul 21 13:30	1495	1567	-71	KXATPMATCH-26JUL19GASDZU
16	Linda Fruhvirtova vs Barbora Krejcikova	Livesport Prague Open	Round 1	hard	Jul 21 13:30	1677	1647	+30	KXWTAMATCH-26JUL20FRUKRE
17	Arantxa Rus vs Elina Avanesyan	MSC Hamburg Ladies Open	Round 1	clay	Jul 21 13:30	1635	1653	-18	KXWTAMATCH-26JUL21RUSAVA
18	Stan Wawrinka vs Roman Andres Burruchaga	Millennium Estoril Open	Round 1	clay	Jul 21 14:00	1471	1736	-265	KXATPSETWINNER-26JUL19WAWBUR-2
19	Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Nastasja Schunk	MSC Hamburg Ladies Open	Round 1	clay	Jul 21 14:00	1810	1674	+136	KXWTAMATCH-26JUL20OLISCH
20	Daniel Altmaier vs Raphael Collignon	Generali Open	Round 1	hard	Jul 21 15:00	1516	1750	-234	KXATPSETWINNER-26JUL19ALTCOL-2
21	Francesca Jones vs Darya Astakhova	Palermo Ladies Open	Round 1	hard	Jul 21 15:00	1620	1586	+34
22	? vs Mina Hodzic	Palermo Ladies Open	Round 1	hard	Jul 21 15:00	—	1553	—
23	Noemi Basiletti vs Tyra Caterina Grant	Palermo Ladies Open	Round 1	hard	Jul 21 15:00	1563	1624	-60
24	Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Jaime Faria	Millennium Estoril Open	Round 1	clay	Jul 21 15:30	1612	1685	-72	KXATPSETWINNER-26JUL19VANFAR-2
25	Tessa Johanna Brockmann vs Elsa Jacquemot	MSC Hamburg Ladies Open	Round 1	clay	Jul 21 15:30	1649	1530	+119	KXWTAMATCH-26JUL20BROJAC
26	Ilary Pistola vs Lucia Bronzetti	Palermo Ladies Open	Round 1	hard	Jul 21 16:30	1497	1532	-35
27	Alice Rame vs Anastasia Tikhonova	Palermo Ladies Open	Round 1	hard	Jul 21 16:30	1395	1464	-69
28	Tamara Zidansek vs Alevtina Ibragimova	Palermo Ladies Open	Round 1	hard	Jul 21 16:30	1583	1630	-46
29	Anastasia Abbagnato vs Clara Burel	Palermo Ladies Open	Round 1	hard	Jul 21 18:00	1482	1508	-26
30	? vs ?	Palermo Ladies Open	Round 1	hard	Jul 21 18:00	—	—	—

#	Match	Our pick	Our P	Mkt P	Ask	Edge	Tier	Decision	Vol 24h	Surface	Round	EV/$
1	Miomir Kecmanovic vs Sebastian Baez	Miomir Kecmanovic	65.6%	2.0%	2¢	+63.6pp	LOW	SKIP	838393	hard	Round 1	+0.636
2	Orlando Luz vs Nuno Borges	Orlando Luz	46.2%	7.0%	7¢	+39.2pp	LOW	PAPER	218405	clay	Round 1	+0.392
3	Maya Joint vs Tereza Valentova	Tereza Valentova	53.9%	93.0%	93¢	-39.1pp	LOW	PAPER	0	hard	Round 2	-0.391
4	Pablo Carreno Busta vs Luca Van Assche	Pablo Carreno Busta	55.1%	92.0%	92¢	-36.9pp	LOW	PAPER	0	hard	Round Of 16	-0.369
5	Quentin Halys vs Laslo Djere	Laslo Djere	45.1%	10.0%	10¢	+35.1pp	LOW	PAPER	294334	hard	Round Of 32	+0.351
6	Mai Hontama vs Lilli Tagger	Lilli Tagger	62.3%	93.0%	93¢	-30.7pp	LOW	PAPER	0	hard	Round 2	-0.307
7	Jesper De Jong vs Timofey Skatov	Jesper De Jong	60.2%	34.0%	34¢	+26.2pp	LOW	PAPER	153523	clay	Round 1	+0.262
8	Tiago Torres vs Alejandro Tabilo	Tiago Torres	37.5%	13.0%	13¢	+24.5pp	LOW	PAPER	5602	clay	Round 2	+0.245
9	Alina Charaeva vs Sara Sorribes Tormo	Alina Charaeva	51.7%	30.0%	30¢	+21.8pp	LOW	PAPER	45994	clay	Round 1	+0.217
10	Ayla Aksu vs Daria Snigur	Ayla Aksu	34.1%	13.0%	13¢	+21.1pp	LOW	PAPER	587	hard	Round 2	+0.211
11	Sara Bejlek vs Anna Blinkova	Sara Bejlek	58.9%	38.0%	38¢	+20.9pp	LOW	PAPER	70122	hard	Round 1	+0.209
12	Maria Carle vs Jule Niemeier	Maria Carle	60.5%	41.0%	41¢	+19.4pp	LOW	PAPER	30624	clay	Round 1	+0.195
13	Carol Young Suh Lee vs Marie Bouzkova	Carol Young Suh Lee	41.2%	22.0%	22¢	+19.2pp	LOW	PAPER	643	hard	Round 2	+0.192
14	Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Stan Wawrinka	Stan Wawrinka	53.2%	34.0%	34¢	+19.2pp	LOW	PAPER	19265	hard	Round Of 32	+0.192
15	Barbora Krejcikova vs Linda Fruhvirtova	Linda Fruhvirtova	33.0%	16.0%	16¢	+17.0pp	LOW	PAPER	34119	hard	Round 1	+0.170
16	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo vs Kilian Feldbausch	Kilian Feldbausch	41.3%	27.0%	27¢	+14.3pp	LOW	PAPER	101910	hard	Round Of 32	+0.143
17	Luciano Darderi vs Pedro Martinez	Pedro Martinez	37.9%	24.0%	24¢	+13.9pp	LOW	PAPER	85	hard	Round Of 16	+0.139
18	Daniel Merida vs Kyrian Jacquet	Kyrian Jacquet	44.4%	31.0%	31¢	+13.4pp	LOW	PAPER	33000	hard	Round Of 32	+0.134
19	Jaime Faria vs Botic Van de Zandschulp	Botic Van de Zandschulp	52.6%	42.0%	42¢	+10.7pp	LOW	PAPER	58951	hard	Round Of 32	+0.107
20	Elsa Jacquemot vs Tessa Johanna Brockmann	Tessa Johanna Brockmann	46.9%	37.0%	37¢	+9.9pp	LOW	PAPER	2153	clay	Round 1	+0.099
21	Lanlana Tararudee vs Jana Kovackova	Jana Kovackova	31.6%	22.0%	22¢	+9.6pp	LOW	PAPER	56179	hard	Round 1	+0.096
22	Paula Badosa vs Katarzyna Kawa	Katarzyna Kawa	47.5%	38.0%	38¢	+9.6pp	LOW	PAPER	30582	clay	Round 1	+0.095
23	Oceane Dodin vs Dominika Salkova	Oceane Dodin	40.9%	32.0%	32¢	+8.9pp	LOW	PAPER	14	hard	Round 2	+0.089
24	Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Nastasja Schunk	Nastasja Schunk	36.0%	28.0%	28¢	+8.0pp	LOW	PAPER	7945	clay	Round 1	+0.080
25	Tamara Korpatsch vs Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva	Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva	38.7%	32.0%	32¢	+6.7pp	LOW	PAPER	1273	clay	Round 1	+0.067
26	Alex Molcan vs Sebastian Ofner	Sebastian Ofner	49.5%	43.0%	43¢	+6.5pp	LOW	PAPER	31731	hard	Round Of 32	+0.066
27	Alexander Bublik vs Facundo Diaz Acosta	Alexander Bublik	67.2%	61.0%	61¢	+6.2pp	LOW	PAPER	1283	hard	Round Of 16	+0.062
28	Arantxa Rus vs Elina Avanesyan	Arantxa Rus	34.3%	29.0%	29¢	+5.3pp	LOW	PAPER	6703	clay	Round 1	+0.053
29	Raphael Collignon vs Daniel Altmaier	Raphael Collignon	66.5%	62.0%	62¢	+4.5pp	LOW	PAPER	37483	hard	Round Of 32	+0.045
30	Jan-Lennard Struff vs Mariano Navone	Jan-Lennard Struff	43.6%	40.0%	40¢	+3.6pp	LOW	PAPER	26	hard	Round Of 16	+0.036
31	Tiago Pereira vs Gonzalo Bueno	Gonzalo Bueno	63.3%	60.0%	60¢	+3.3pp	LOW	SKIP	810005	clay	Round 1	+0.033
32	Hugo Gaston vs Damir Dzumhur	Damir Dzumhur	51.7%	49.0%	49¢	+2.7pp	LOW	PAPER	68318	clay	Round 1	+0.027
33	Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Jurij Rodionov	Jurij Rodionov	38.8%	37.0%	37¢	+1.8pp	LOW	SKIP	122	hard	Round Of 16	+0.018
34	Marco Trungelliti vs Yannick Hanfmann	Yannick Hanfmann	62.7%	63.0%	63¢	-0.3pp	LOW	SKIP	138	hard	Round Of 16	-0.003

#	Player	Stat	PP line	Our proj	Edge %	Side	Tier	Opp	Surface	Demon	Payout
1	Roman Andres Burruchaga🟨 WARM	Aces	2.5	5.94	+137.4%	MORE	LOW	Stan Wawrinka	clay	—	0.5x
2	Tiago Torres⏳ RTRN	Break Points Won	1.5	3.12	+108.0%	MORE	LOW	Alejandro Tabilo	clay	—	1.0x
3	Alex Molcan⏳ RTRN	Double Faults	2.5	0.00	+100.0%	LESS	LOW	Sebastian Ofner	clay	—	0.5x
4	Carol Young Suh Lee🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	2.5	4.49	+79.6%	MORE	LOW	Marie Bouzkova	clay	—	1.0x
5	Alex Molcan⏳ RTRN	Aces	3.5	6.27	+79.2%	MORE	LOW	Sebastian Ofner	clay	—	0.5x
6	Anastasia Abbagnato🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	5.5	8.58	+55.9%	MORE	LOW	Clara Burel	clay	—	0.5x
7	Lucia Bronzetti	Total Games	16.5	24.33	+47.5%	MORE	LOW	Ilary Pistola	clay	—	0.5x
8	Yasmine Kabbaj	Break Points Won	3.5	5.10	+45.8%	MORE	LOW	Ekaterine Gorgodze	clay	—	1.0x
9	Jennifer Ruggeri🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	3.5	5.05	+44.4%	MORE	LOW	Lola Radivojevic	clay	—	1.0x
10	Clara Burel🧊 COLD	Total Games	17.5	24.20	+38.3%	MORE	LOW	Anastasia Abbagnato	clay	—	0.5x
11	Daria Snigur🟨 WARM	Total Games	18.5	24.36	+31.7%	MORE	LOW	Ayla Aksu	clay	—	0.5x
12	Alejandro Tabilo🟨 WARM	Total Games	19.5	24.52	+25.7%	MORE	LOW	Tiago Torres	clay	—	0.5x
13	Stan Wawrinka🧊 COLD	Aces	4.5	5.66	+25.7%	MORE	LOW	Roman Andres Burruchaga	clay	—	0.5x
14	Raphael Collignon⏳ RTRN	Break Points Won	3.0	3.60	+19.9%	MORE	LOW	Daniel Altmaier	clay	—	1.0x
15	Tyra Caterina Grant🟨 WARM	Total Games	19.5	23.25	+19.2%	MORE	LOW	Noemi Basiletti	clay	—	0.5x
16	Francesca Jones	Total Games	20.5	24.44	+19.2%	MORE	LOW	Darya Astakhova	clay	—	0.5x
17	Ekaterine Gorgodze	Total Games	20.5	24.40	+19.0%	MORE	LOW	Yasmine Kabbaj	clay	—	1.0x
18	Botic Van de Zandschulp⏳ RTRN	Total Games Won	12.5	10.14	+18.9%	LESS	LOW	Jaime Faria	clay	—	0.5x
19	Elina Avanesyan🟨 WARM	Total Games	20.5	24.35	+18.8%	MORE	LOW	Arantxa Rus	clay	—	0.5x
20	Stan Wawrinka🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	11.5	9.35	+18.7%	LESS	LOW	Roman Andres Burruchaga	clay	—	0.5x
21	Jaime Faria🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	3.0	3.53	+17.8%	MORE	LOW	Botic Van de Zandschulp	clay	—	1.0x
22	Marie Bouzkova🟨 WARM	Total Games	20.5	23.91	+16.6%	MORE	LOW	Carol Young Suh Lee	clay	—	0.5x
23	Botic Van de Zandschulp⏳ RTRN	Aces	5.5	6.41	+16.6%	MORE	LOW	Jaime Faria	clay	—	0.5x
24	Oleksandra Oliynykova	Total Games	20.5	23.64	+15.3%	MORE	LOW	Nastasja Schunk	clay	—	0.5x
25	Yannick Hanfmann🟨 WARM	Total Games	22.0	25.33	+15.1%	MORE	LOW	Marco Trungelliti	clay	—	0.5x
26	Alevtina Ibragimova	Total Games Won	11.5	9.76	+15.1%	LESS	LOW	Tamara Zidansek	clay	—	0.5x
27	Tessa Johanna Brockmann🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	11.5	9.81	+14.7%	LESS	LOW	Elsa Jacquemot	clay	—	0.5x
28	Darya Astakhova🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	8.5	9.67	+13.7%	MORE	LOW	Francesca Jones	clay	—	1.0x
29	Lola Radivojevic🧊 COLD	Total Games	21.5	24.39	+13.5%	MORE	LOW	Jennifer Ruggeri	clay	—	0.5x
30	Fiona Ferro🟨 WARM	Total Games	21.5	24.35	+13.3%	MORE	LOW	Erika Andreeva	clay	—	1.0x
31	Jaime Faria🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	12.5	10.86	+13.1%	LESS	LOW	Botic Van de Zandschulp	clay	—	0.5x
32	Tamara Zidansek⏳ RTRN	Total Games	21.0	23.64	+12.6%	MORE	LOW	Alevtina Ibragimova	clay	—	0.5x
33	Elsa Jacquemot🧊 COLD	Total Games	21.5	23.92	+11.2%	MORE	LOW	Tessa Johanna Brockmann	clay	—	0.5x
34	Paula Badosa🧊 COLD	Total Games	21.0	23.30	+10.9%	MORE	LOW	Katarzyna Kawa	clay	—	0.5x
35	Roman Andres Burruchaga🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	12.5	11.16	+10.7%	LESS	LOW	Stan Wawrinka	clay	—	0.5x
36	Tomas Martin Etcheverry🟨 WARM	Total Games	22.5	24.89	+10.6%	MORE	LOW	Jurij Rodionov	clay	—	0.5x
37	Anastasia Tikhonova🧊 COLD	Total Games	21.5	23.70	+10.2%	MORE	LOW	Alice Rame	clay	—	0.5x
38	Katarzyna Kawa🔥 HOT	Total Games Won	11.5	10.36	+9.9%	LESS	LOW	Paula Badosa	clay	—	0.5x
39	Jaime Faria🟨 WARM	Total Games	23.0	25.08	+9.0%	MORE	LOW	Botic Van de Zandschulp	clay	—	0.5x
40	Dominika Salkova	Total Games	21.5	23.38	+8.8%	MORE	LOW	Oceane Dodin	clay	—	0.5x
41	Luciano Darderi🟨 WARM	Total Games	21.5	23.33	+8.5%	MORE	LOW	Pedro Martinez	clay	—	0.5x
42	Paula Badosa🧊 COLD	Total Games	21.5	23.30	+8.3%	MORE	LOW	Katarzyna Kawa	clay	—	0.5x
43	Mariano Navone🟨 WARM	Total Games	22.5	24.34	+8.2%	MORE	LOW	Jan-Lennard Struff	clay	—	0.5x
44	Raphael Collignon⏳ RTRN	Total Games	23.0	24.81	+7.8%	MORE	LOW	Daniel Altmaier	clay	—	0.5x
45	Alexander Bublik🧊 COLD	Total Games	23.5	25.33	+7.8%	MORE	LOW	Facundo Diaz Acosta	clay	—	0.5x
46	Alex Molcan⏳ RTRN	Total Games	23.0	24.54	+6.7%	MORE	LOW	Sebastian Ofner	clay	—	0.5x
47	Arantxa Rus🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	9.5	8.88	+6.5%	LESS	LOW	Elina Avanesyan	clay	—	0.5x
48	Roman Andres Burruchaga🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	3.5	3.68	+5.2%	MORE	LOW	Stan Wawrinka	clay	—	1.0x
49	Barbora Krejcikova⏳ RTRN	Break Points Won	5.0	5.15	+3.1%	MORE	LOW	Linda Fruhvirtova	clay	—	1.0x
50	Roman Andres Burruchaga🟨 WARM	Total Games	22.5	23.18	+3.0%	MORE	LOW	Stan Wawrinka	clay	—	0.5x
51	Noemi Basiletti	Total Games Won	8.5	8.75	+3.0%	MORE	LOW	Tyra Caterina Grant	clay	—	1.0x
52	Nastasja Schunk⏳ RTRN	Total Games Won	9.5	9.24	+2.7%	LESS	LOW	Oleksandra Oliynykova	clay	—	1.0x
53	Lola Radivojevic🧊 COLD	Break Points Won	4.5	4.58	+1.7%	MORE	LOW	Jennifer Ruggeri	clay	—	1.0x

Kalshi tennis — 0 picks · $0.00 staked

Day 1 - paper only, grade EOD before scaling · locked 2026-07-21T13:15:13.831699+00:00

#	Match	Pick	Our P	Ask	Edge	Tier	Surface	Stake	Status	P&L

PrizePicks tennis — 0 picks · $0.00 staked

Day 1 - paper only, grade EOD before scaling · locked 2026-07-21T13:15:13.771420+00:00

#	Player	Stat	Line	Our proj	Side	Edge	Tier	Surface	Stake	Status	P&L

Polymarket = retail/crypto sentiment. We can't bet there from CA, but the divergence vs Kalshi (sharp) reveals where the public is loading up. Generated 2026-07-21T06:15:30 · flagged threshold = ±3.0pp · 1 flagged futures / 0 flagged matches.

Grand-slam futures · ANY 2026 Slam (Kalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM vs Polymarket per-slam aggregate)

Polymarket "any-slam" probability computed naively as 1 - product(1 - p_slam). Positive divergence = public (Polymarket) more bullish than sharp (Kalshi). Sorted by |divergence|.

Player	Sharp (Kalshi)	Public (Poly)	Δ	Poly per-slam
Lorenzo Musetti · exact	4.0%	0.4%	-3.6pp · SHARP HIGHER	US 0%
Jack Draper · exact	3.5%	0.9%	-2.6pp · SHARP HIGHER	US 1%
Taylor Fritz · exact	3.5%	1.4%	-2.1pp · SHARP HIGHER	US 1%
Daniil Medvedev · exact	2.0%	1.3%	-0.7pp · SHARP HIGHER	US 1%
Frances Tiafoe · exact	1.0%	0.4%	-0.6pp · SHARP HIGHER	US 0%
Alexander Bublik · exact	1.0%	0.4%	-0.6pp · SHARP HIGHER	US 0%
Novak Djokovic · exact	4.0%	3.8%	-0.2pp · SHARP HIGHER	US 4%
Ben Shelton · exact	1.5%	1.4%	-0.1pp · SHARP HIGHER	US 1%
Karen Khachanov · no-match	1.0%	—	no Poly match	—
Felix Auger-Aliassime · no-match	6.0%	—	no Poly match	—
Casper Ruud · no-match	1.0%	—	no Poly match	—
Alex de Minaur · no-match	1.5%	—	no Poly match	—

Per-match overlaps

No active per-match overlaps right now (Polymarket tennis volume concentrates in Grand Slam futures).

Per-stat-type MAE (n_graded=18)

Bar width = MAE (lower = better). "INSUFFICIENT" = need more graded picks.

Total Games

n=4

Ours

Us 6.45
PP 3.25
INSUFFICIENT_N

Total Games Won

n=13

Ours

Us 5.11
PP 4.96
NULL

Total Tie Breaks

n=1

Ours

Us 0.25
PP 0.50
INSUFFICIENT_N

Per-tier MAE

Bar width = MAE (lower = better). "INSUFFICIENT" = need more graded picks.

ELITE

n=16

Ours

Us 4.94
PP 3.75
NULL

MED

n=0

Ours

Us —
PP —
INSUFFICIENT_N

STRONG

n=2

Ours

Us 6.75
PP 9.00
INSUFFICIENT_N

[!]

No AAR available yet.
Expected: ~/.claude/projects/.../memory/aar_tennis_<date>.md

[MV]

No actionable PP line movement yet.
Expected: pp_line_movement_tennis_2026-07-21.csv. Needs at least 2 PP snapshots in pp_snapshots_tennis/.

ATP top 50

Rk	Player	Country	Pts	ELO overall	ELO clay	ELO grass	ELO hard
1	Jannik Sinner	ITA	13500	2167	1879	1695	2062
2	Carlos Alcaraz	ESP	9960	2070	1867	1717	1956
3	Alexander Zverev	GER	7305	1994	1865	1594	1863
4	Felix Auger Aliassime	CAN	4440	1854	1642	1517	1803
5	Ben Shelton	USA	3920	1816	1665	1561	1765
6	Alex De Minaur	AUS	3905	1851	1677	1590	1806
7	Novak Djokovic	SRB	3760	1929	1729	1636	1846
8	Daniil Medvedev	RUS	3760	1884	1659	1585	1845
9	Taylor Fritz	USA	3720	1793	1551	1722	1749
10	Flavio Cobolli	ITA	3540	1833	1754	1557	1655
11	Alexander Bublik	KAZ	2930	1785	1681	1569	1703
12	Jiri Lehecka	CZE	2575	1814	1632	1574	1754
13	Andrey Rublev	RUS	2460	1804	1705	1516	1683
14	Casper Ruud	NOR	2425	1866	1805	1502	1685
15	Karen Khachanov	RUS	2320	1723	1622	1567	1639
16	Lorenzo Musetti	ITA	2315	1832	1764	1607	1723
17	Jakub Mensik	CZE	2300	1825	1661	1497	1747
18	Luciano Darderi	ITA	2300	1772	1790	1466	1466
19	Learner Tien	USA	2270	1847	1622	1506	1789
20	Valentin Vacherot	MON	2145	1800	1695	1467	1738
21	Arthur Fils	FRA	1940	1892	1746	1546	1771
22	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	ESP	1860	1749	1593	1545	1703
23	Rafael Jodar	ESP	1849	1893	1755	—	1765
24	Arthur Rinderknech	FRA	1776	1713	1576	1530	1631
25	Joao Fonseca	BRA	1735	1837	1673	1495	1795
26	Frances Tiafoe	USA	1705	1775	1640	1488	1719
27	Francisco Cerundolo	ARG	1660	1790	1700	1426	1698
28	Tommy Paul	USA	1645	1851	1758	1587	1743
29	Cameron Norrie	GBR	1595	1738	1631	1529	1682
30	Tomas Martin Etcheverry	ARG	1510	1751	1656	1456	1636
31	Alejandro Tabilo	CHI	1428	1798	1705	1575	1637
32	Brandon Nakashima	USA	1385	1713	1582	1590	1660
33	Ugo Humbert	FRA	1370	1715	1498	1517	1697
34	Matteo Arnaldi	ITA	1336	1719	1676	1455	1558
35	Ignacio Buse	PER	1316	1773	1732	1482	1562
36	Corentin Moutet	FRA	1283	1673	1567	1574	1640
37	Alexander Blockx	BEL	1280	1820	1688	1508	1713
38	Alex Michelsen	USA	1205	1727	1522	1538	1702
39	Mariano Navone	ARG	1165	1767	1722	1460	1507
40	Zizou Bergs	BEL	1150	1681	1547	1521	1631
41	Tallon Griekspoor	NED	1150	1680	1576	1564	1645
42	Denis Shapovalov	CAN	1130	1668	1483	1472	1698
43	Tomas Machac	CZE	1120	1745	1602	1500	1682
44	Jaume Munar	ESP	1105	1695	1589	1508	1635
45	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	ARG	1055	1756	1753	1469	1532
46	Adrian Mannarino	FRA	1031	1565	1369	1584	1569
47	Marin Cilic	CRO	994	1684	1513	1611	1635
48	Matteo Berrettini	ITA	985	1749	1689	1524	1694
49	Miomir Kecmanovic	SRB	980	1688	1584	1500	1595
50	Nuno Borges	POR	970	1656	1596	1493	1596

WTA top 50

Rk	Player	Country	Pts	ELO overall	ELO clay	ELO grass	ELO hard
1	Aryna Sabalenka	BLR	9090	2089	1801	1588	2045
2	Elena Rybakina	KAZ	8143	2040	1766	1580	1972
3	Iga Swiatek	POL	6733	1957	1809	1658	1852
4	Jessica Pegula	USA	6056	1979	1701	1583	1901
5	Amanda Anisimova	USA	5848	1906	1580	1638	1822
6	Mirra Andreeva	RUS	5751	1995	1867	1513	1797
7	Coco Gauff	USA	4879	1980	1824	1519	1871
8	Elina Svitolina	UKR	4315	1996	1824	1550	1824
9	Victoria Mboko	CAN	3670	1937	1726	1515	1891
10	Karolina Muchova	CZE	3438	1927	1602	1494	1869
11	Belinda Bencic	SUI	3385	1904	1636	1561	1831
12	Marta Kostyuk	UKR	3157	1959	1801	1449	1755
13	Linda Noskova	CZE	3054	1869	1599	1583	1763
14	Jasmine Paolini	ITA	2617	1809	1701	1585	1741
15	Naomi Osaka	JPN	2571	1855	1688	1514	1734
16	Diana Shnaider	RUS	2506	1841	1701	1565	1686
17	Ekaterina Alexandrova	RUS	2449	1711	1556	1584	1662
18	Sorana Cirstea	ROU	2415	1919	1714	1429	1797
19	Iva Jovic	USA	2366	1833	1667	1601	1759
20	Anna Kalinskaya	RUS	2212	1834	1631	1546	1721
21	Maja Chwalinska	POL	1996	1860	1795	1483	1693
22	Elise Mertens	BEL	1918	1811	1619	1581	1714
23	Leylah Fernandez	CAN	1844	1760	1569	1546	1679
24	Clara Tauson	DEN	1800	1719	1527	1520	1679
25	Emma Navarro	USA	1779	1759	1653	1590	1613
26	Madison Keys	USA	1772	1864	1732	1558	1766
27	Anastasia Potapova	RUS	1640	1855	1743	1484	1640
28	Marie Bouzkova	CZE	1631	1787	1702	1476	1648
29	Ann Li	USA	1601	1759	1646	1478	1647
30	Hailey Baptiste	USA	1513	1790	1667	1488	1667
31	Xin Yu Wang	CHN	1431	1719	1537	1591	1616
32	Katerina Siniakova	CZE	1422	1771	1559	1578	1693
33	Alexandra Eala	PHI	1416	1837	1495	1665	1748
34	Cristina Bucsa	ESP	1406	1705	1443	1514	1684
35	Liudmila Samsonova	RUS	1405	1680	1593	1619	1566
36	Jelena Ostapenko	LAT	1404	1762	1660	1534	1621
37	Maria Sakkari	GRE	1328	1729	1589	1486	1658
38	Jaqueline Cristian	ROU	1294	1767	1631	1432	1698
39	Mccartney Kessler	USA	1289	1751	1547	1583	1688
40	Janice Tjen	INA	1267	1780	1634	1503	1785
41	Elisabetta Cocciaretto	ITA	1260	1800	1586	1577	1689
42	Emma Raducanu	GBR	1241	1727	1548	1577	1658
43	Magdalena Frech	POL	1238	1655	1530	1434	1613
44	Laura Siegemund	GER	1230	1691	1553	1541	1592
45	Barbora Krejcikova	CZE	1211	1743	1550	1606	1647
46	Sara Bejlek	CZE	1205	1783	1736	1486	1653
47	Tereza Valentova	CZE	1165	1829	1727	1517	1788
48	Marketa Vondrousova	CZE	1133	1728	1606	1578	1609
49	Dayana Yastremska	UKR	1126	1743	1640	1575	1594
50	Petra Marcinko	CRO	1123	1771	1743	1467	1633

Top Kalshi edges

#1 Marco Cecchinato ELITE_LOW_N

Marco Cecchinato vs Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera on hard — model 45% vs market 15% (+30.0pp). ELITE_LOW_N, ask 15¢.

#2 Andres Andrade ELITE_LOW_N

Andres Andrade vs Colton Smith on hard — model 49% vs market 20% (+29.4pp). ELITE_LOW_N, ask 20¢. Form: Andres Andra=COLD | Colton Smith=WARM.

#3 Gonzalo Bueno STRONG_LOW_N

Gonzalo Bueno vs Jerome Kym on hard — model 45% vs market 16% (+29.0pp). STRONG_LOW_N, ask 16¢.

#4 Adam Walton ELITE_LOW_N

Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios on hard — model 64% vs market 93% (+-28.5pp). ELITE_LOW_N, ask 93¢.

#5 Florent Bax ELITE_LOW_N

Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch on hard — model 45% vs market 17% (+28.0pp). ELITE_LOW_N, ask 17¢.

Top PrizePicks edges

#1 Martin Landaluce ELITE_LOW_N

Martin Landaluce LESS 0.5 Total Tie Breaks vs Jan-Lennard Struff — proj 0.2 (+50.0% edge). Surface: clay.

#2 Rei Sakamoto ELITE_LOW_N

Rei Sakamoto LESS 0.5 Total Tie Breaks vs Anton Matusevich — proj 0.2 (+49.9% edge). Surface: clay.

#3 Jack Draper STRONG_LOW_N

Jack Draper LESS 0.5 Total Tie Breaks vs Brandon Nakashima — proj 0.2 (+49.9% edge). Surface: clay.

Fade signals

Clara Tauson (RETURNING): RETURNING form tag — fade or fade-against.
Gabriel Diallo (COLD): COLD form tag — fade or fade-against.
Raphael Collignon (RETURNING): RETURNING form tag — fade or fade-against.
Maya Joint (RETURNING): RETURNING form tag — fade or fade-against.
Antonia Ruzic (COLD): COLD form tag — fade or fade-against.
Francisco Comesana (COLD): COLD form tag — fade or fade-against.
Jan Lennard Struff (COLD): COLD form tag — fade or fade-against.
Alexei Popyrin (COLD): COLD form tag — fade or fade-against.

Surface leans

Surface	Matches	% strong fav	Lean
hard	5	0.0%	pick'em slate
grass	154	3.9%	pick'em slate

ATP (current surface: grass, top 50 by composite)

Rk	Player	Country	Composite	ELO overall	ELO grass	Form	Off. rank
1	Jannik Sinner	ITA	2051.6	2167	1695	WARM	1
2	Carlos Alcaraz	ESP	1923.6	2070	1717	RETURNING	2
3	Rafael Jodar	ESP	1913.0	1893	1893	WARM	23
4	Alexander Zverev	GER	1898.3	1994	1594	WARM	3
5	Daniil Medvedev	RUS	1808.0	1884	1585	WARM	8
6	Arthur Fils	FRA	1791.0	1892	1546	WARM	21
7	Novak Djokovic	SRB	1788.6	1929	1636	RETURNING	7
8	Tommy Paul	USA	1778.5	1851	1587	WARM	28
9	Felix Auger Aliassime	CAN	1777.3	1854	1517	WARM	4
10	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	PAR	1775.3	1755	1755	WARM	72
11	Alex De Minaur	AUS	1775.0	1851	1590	NEUTRAL	6
12	Daniel Merida Aguilar	ESP	1767.7	1748	1748	WARM	82
13	Yibing Wu	CHN	1766.8	1747	1747	WARM	101
14	Ben Shelton	USA	1764.8	1816	1561	WARM	5
15	Flavio Cobolli	ITA	1759.5	1833	1557	WARM	10
16	Casper Ruud	NOR	1758.5	1866	1502	WARM	14
17	Lorenzo Musetti	ITA	1753.5	1832	1607	NEUTRAL	16
18	Dino Prizmic	CRO	1753.2	1813	1499	HOT	70
19	Jiri Lehecka	CZE	1750.1	1814	1574	WARM	12
20	Alejandro Tabilo	CHI	1739.8	1798	1575	WARM	31
21	Joao Fonseca	BRA	1737.3	1837	1495	WARM	25
22	Alexander Blockx	BEL	1730.5	1820	1508	WARM	37
23	Jakub Mensik	CZE	1730.1	1825	1497	WARM	17
24	Toby Samuel	GBR	1728.8	1709	1709	WARM	150
25	Learner Tien	USA	1727.2	1847	1506	NEUTRAL	19
26	Taylor Fritz	USA	1724.0	1793	1722	RETURNING	9
27	Stefanos Sakellaridis	GRE	1711.7	1692	1692	WARM	155
28	Alexander Bublik	KAZ	1709.5	1785	1569	NEUTRAL	11
29	Rei Sakamoto	JPN	1706.3	1686	1686	WARM	149
30	Valentin Vacherot	MON	1703.4	1800	1467	WARM	20
31	Andrey Rublev	RUS	1703.1	1804	1516	NEUTRAL	13
32	Zachary Svajda	USA	1696.9	1722	1650	NEUTRAL	62
33	Michael Mmoh	USA	1695.3	1675	1675	WARM	195
34	Alex Molcan	SVK	1694.0	1744	1744	RETURNING	102
35	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo	ESP	1691.4	1641	1641	HOT	226
36	Kilian Feldbausch	SUI	1688.9	1669	1669	WARM	287
37	Pablo Carreno Busta	ESP	1684.3	1761	1484	WARM	71
38	Buvaysar Gadamauri	BEL	1684.1	1664	1664	WARM	261
39	Francisco Cerundolo	ARG	1682.9	1790	1426	WARM	27
40	Jack Draper	GBR	1682.2	1806	1594	RETURNING	112
41	Mariano Navone	ARG	1679.8	1767	1460	WARM	39
42	Franco Roncadelli	URU	1679.0	1659	1659	WARM	227
43	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	ESP	1677.3	1749	1545	NEUTRAL	22
44	Roman Andres Burruchaga	ARG	1676.8	1733	1514	WARM	63
45	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	ARG	1675.7	1756	1469	WARM	45
46	Hubert Hurkacz	POL	1675.6	1714	1547	WARM	96
47	Ignacio Buse	PER	1671.0	1773	1482	NEUTRAL	35
48	Matteo Berrettini	ITA	1670.6	1749	1524	NEUTRAL	48
49	Brandon Nakashima	USA	1670.4	1713	1590	NEUTRAL	32
50	Bu Yunchaokete	CHN	1668.7	1709	1536	WARM	131

WTA (current surface: grass, top 50 by composite)

Rk	Player	Country	Composite	ELO overall	ELO grass	Form	Off. rank
1	Aryna Sabalenka	BLR	1963.9	2089	1588	WARM	1
2	Elena Rybakina	KAZ	1925.9	2040	1580	WARM	2
3	Alexandra Shubladze	RUS	1898.6	1879	1879	WARM	184
4	Jeline Vandromme	BEL	1883.0	1863	1863	WARM	176
5	Jessica Pegula	USA	1881.7	1979	1583	WARM	4
6	Iga Swiatek	POL	1876.4	1957	1658	NEUTRAL	3
7	Elina Svitolina	UKR	1869.3	1996	1550	WARM	8
8	Lisa Pigato	ITA	1866.5	1846	1846	WARM	132
9	Mirra Andreeva	RUS	1861.0	1995	1513	WARM	6
10	Coco Gauff	USA	1850.8	1980	1519	WARM	7
11	Akasha Urhobo	USA	1843.4	1823	1823	WARM	180
12	Tyra Caterina Grant	USA	1840.5	1820	1820	WARM	157
13	Dayeon Back	KOR	1825.7	1806	1806	WARM	279
14	Kaitlin Quevedo	USA	1824.7	1825	1825	NEUTRAL	107
15	Victoria Mboko	CAN	1815.1	1937	1515	WARM	9
16	Laura Samson	CZE	1810.3	1810	1810	NEUTRAL	137
17	Alice Tubello	FRA	1810.1	1790	1790	WARM	222
18	Belinda Bencic	SUI	1804.3	1904	1561	WARM	11
19	Carol Young Suh Lee	POC	1801.3	1781	1781	WARM	192
20	Jennifer Ruggeri	ITA	1801.1	1781	1781	WARM	213
21	Marta Kostyuk	UKR	1800.2	1959	1449	WARM	12
22	Anastasia Zolotareva	RUS	1798.0	1778	1778	WARM	233
23	Kristina Liutova	RUS	1796.5	1777	1777	WARM	229
24	Luisina Giovannini	ARG	1793.4	1843	1843	RETURNING	173
25	Angela Fita Boluda	ESP	1793.2	1773	1773	WARM	195
26	Eva Guerrero Alvarez	ESP	1791.5	1772	1772	WARM	274
27	Linda Noskova	CZE	1788.9	1869	1583	WARM	13
28	Hayu Kinoshita	JPN	1787.3	1767	1767	WARM	217
29	Martyna Kubka	POL	1784.6	1765	1765	WARM	243
30	Darya Astakhova	RUS	1782.7	1763	1763	WARM	236
31	Amanda Anisimova	USA	1780.3	1906	1638	RETURNING	5
32	Samira De Stefano	ITA	1779.4	1759	1759	WARM	263
33	Alexandra Eala	PHI	1776.5	1837	1665	NEUTRAL	33
34	Caijsa Wilda Hennemann	SWE	1773.6	1774	1774	NEUTRAL	276
35	Lilli Tagger	AUT	1770.9	1771	1771	NEUTRAL	86
36	Claire Liu	USA	1770.0	1750	1750	WARM	148
37	Sorana Cirstea	ROU	1767.4	1919	1429	WARM	18
38	Lanlana Tararudee	THA	1766.5	1860	1536	WARM	94
39	Daria Snigur	UKR	1765.8	1863	1528	WARM	84
40	Veronika Podrez	UKR	1764.2	1814	1814	RETURNING	145
41	Lucie Havlickova	CZE	1758.1	1738	1738	WARM	212
42	Sohyun Park	KOR	1756.7	1737	1737	WARM	270
43	Julie Struplova	CZE	1755.7	1786	1786	COLD	272
44	Tatiana Prozorova	RUS	1755.6	1806	1806	RETURNING	172
45	Elizara Yaneva	BUL	1752.5	1752	1752	NEUTRAL	225
46	Iva Jovic	USA	1751.9	1833	1601	NEUTRAL	19
47	Oleksandra Oliynykova	CRO	1748.0	1859	1485	WARM	51
48	Hanyu Guo	CHN	1747.7	1728	1728	WARM	156
49	Anhelina Kalinina	UKR	1746.9	1842	1513	WARM	69
50	Rebeka Masarova	ESP	1746.2	1813	1623	NEUTRAL	140

ATP on CLAY (top 15 by surface tilt)

Player	Δ ELO	ELO clay	ELO overall	Form	Off. rank
Zdenek Kolar	+27.9	1617	1589	NEUTRAL	162
Gustavo Heide	+25.1	1725	1700	RETURNING	182
Jan Choinski	+19.6	1688	1668	COLD	105
Juan Carlos Prado Angelo	+19.3	1648	1628	RETURNING	161
Gonzalo Bueno	+17.6	1637	1619	RETURNING	180
Luciano Darderi	+17.2	1790	1772	WARM	18
Valentin Royer	+16.5	1654	1638	WARM	74
Alex Barrena	+13.9	1571	1557	NEUTRAL	197
Jesper De Jong	+12.7	1672	1659	NEUTRAL	83
Hugo Dellien	+11.2	1688	1677	RETURNING	165
Timofey Skatov	+11.0	1631	1620	NEUTRAL	175
Tomas Barrios Vera	+9.1	1686	1677	COLD	138
Lukas Neumayer	+8.9	1693	1684	WARM	168
Marco Trungelliti	+8.6	1684	1675	NEUTRAL	80
Facundo Diaz Acosta	+4.7	1703	1698	RETURNING	128

WTA on CLAY (top 15 by surface tilt)

Player	Δ ELO	ELO clay	ELO overall	Form	Off. rank
Katarzyna Kawa	+26.3	1730	1704	HOT	143
Despina Papamichail	+7.5	1686	1679	NEUTRAL	168
Teodora Kostovic	+4.7	1735	1730	NEUTRAL	182
Anna Bondar	+4.5	1779	1775	WARM	75
Simona Waltert	-2.9	1764	1767	WARM	90
Carole Monnet	-3.1	1662	1665	NEUTRAL	191
Julia Grabher	-4.8	1715	1720	NEUTRAL	116
Andrea Lazaro Garcia	-7.6	1791	1799	WARM	153
Luisina Giovannini	-10.7	1833	1843	RETURNING	173
Veronika Erjavec	-12.4	1739	1752	WARM	89
Darja Semenistaja	-13.5	1778	1792	WARM	102
Mayar Sherif	-13.8	1707	1720	RETURNING	118
Whitney Osuigwe	-13.8	1668	1682	WARM	183
Nuria Brancaccio	-14.1	1658	1672	COLD	177
Tamara Zidansek	-15.2	1761	1777	RETURNING	134

ATP on GRASS (top 15 by surface tilt)

Player	Δ ELO	ELO grass	ELO overall	Form	Off. rank
Shintaro Mochizuki	+54.6	1565	1511	RETURNING	129
Nicolas Jarry	+29.4	1564	1535	RETURNING	189
Billy Harris	+25.6	1541	1515	COLD	144
Adrian Mannarino	+19.4	1584	1565	COLD	46
Roberto Bautista Agut	-25.0	1551	1576	COLD	116
Aleksandar Vukic	-31.8	1537	1569	COLD	100
Otto Virtanen	-49.0	1631	1680	NEUTRAL	158
Tristan Schoolkate	-50.4	1550	1600	WARM	123
Alex Bolt	-56.1	1592	1648	WARM	157
August Holmgren	-56.7	1548	1605	WARM	148
Gabriel Diallo	-63.2	1576	1639	COLD	54
Marcos Giron	-71.3	1570	1641	WARM	88
Zachary Svajda	-72.3	1650	1722	NEUTRAL	62
Marin Cilic	-73.2	1611	1684	NEUTRAL	47
Ugo Blanchet	-74.7	1459	1534	COLD	173

WTA on GRASS (top 15 by surface tilt)

Player	Δ ELO	ELO grass	ELO overall	Form	Off. rank
Tatjana Maria	-18.0	1598	1616	NEUTRAL	52
Beatriz Haddad Maia	-64.5	1514	1578	COLD	108
Viktoriya Tomova	-107.0	1500	1607	NEUTRAL	167
Ajla Tomljanovic	-111.2	1536	1647	NEUTRAL	109
Xin Yu Wang	-127.1	1591	1719	NEUTRAL	31
Kamilla Rakhimova	-128.2	1576	1705	NEUTRAL	78
Linda Fruhvirtova	-133.9	1543	1677	NEUTRAL	164
Suzan Lamens	-135.0	1489	1624	COLD	125
Lulu Sun	-136.6	1519	1655	NEUTRAL	110
Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva	-136.9	1499	1636	NEUTRAL	124
Rebecca Sramkova	-137.3	1509	1646	NEUTRAL	120
Dalma Galfi	-138.3	1576	1714	NEUTRAL	117
Ashlyn Krueger	-149.2	1563	1712	NEUTRAL	113
Elena Gabriela Ruse	-159.4	1570	1730	NEUTRAL	88
Bianca Andreescu	-161.6	1539	1700	NEUTRAL	158

ATP on HARD (top 15 by surface tilt)

Player	Δ ELO	ELO hard	ELO overall	Form	Off. rank
Hugo Gaston	+45.5	1666	1620	WARM	119
Luca Van Assche	+35.7	1704	1668	WARM	98
Toby Samuel	+29.5	1738	1709	WARM	150
Gauthier Onclin	+6.0	1613	1607	HOT	186
Clement Chidekh	+5.5	1629	1624	NEUTRAL	200
Rinky Hijikata	+3.2	1683	1680	WARM	106
Alexis Galarneau	+2.9	1613	1610	WARM	187
Coleman Wong	-1.9	1641	1643	WARM	108
Benjamin Bonzi	-3.0	1678	1680	WARM	99
Michael Mmoh	-10.9	1664	1675	WARM	195
Borna Gojo	-11.2	1698	1709	WARM	178
Ethan Quinn	-13.2	1683	1696	WARM	67
Marcos Giron	-13.6	1628	1641	WARM	88
Sho Shimabukuro	-14.6	1643	1657	NEUTRAL	104
Terence Atmane	-14.7	1627	1641	NEUTRAL	53

WTA on HARD (top 15 by surface tilt)

Player	Δ ELO	ELO hard	ELO overall	Form	Off. rank
Talia Gibson	+53.5	1832	1779	HOT	63
Hanne Vandewinkel	+51.2	1848	1796	HOT	97
Xiaodi You	+1.4	1730	1729	WARM	170
Kimberly Birrell	-6.3	1751	1757	WARM	74
Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva	-6.9	1629	1636	WARM	124
Ye Xin Ma	-9.4	1684	1693	WARM	189
Sofia Costoulas	-11.2	1729	1740	WARM	150
Taylah Preston	-15.5	1796	1811	WARM	126
Polina Iatcenko	-17.5	1721	1738	NEUTRAL	163
Himeno Sakatsume	-18.4	1742	1761	NEUTRAL	127
Vendula Valdmannova	-18.6	1785	1804	WARM	199
Priscilla Hon	-19.1	1646	1665	NEUTRAL	146
Harriet Dart	-23.5	1740	1763	WARM	160
Francisca Jorge	-27.2	1699	1727	RETURNING	196
Hanyu Guo	-27.7	1700	1728	WARM	156

WTA on INDOOR (top 15 by surface tilt)

Player	Δ ELO	ELO indoor	ELO overall	Form	Off. rank
Linda Klimovicova	-124.1	1616	1740	NEUTRAL	165
Kimberly Birrell	-177.1	1580	1757	NEUTRAL	74
Ye Xin Ma	-177.9	1515	1693	WARM	189
Carole Monnet	-194.2	1471	1665	NEUTRAL	191
Elvina Kalieva	-209.7	1521	1731	WARM	135
Himeno Sakatsume	-218.0	1543	1761	NEUTRAL	127
Emerson Jones	-222.0	1584	1806	WARM	133
Dalma Galfi	-228.3	1486	1714	NEUTRAL	117
Marina Bassols Ribera	-229.2	1503	1732	WARM	144
Tamara Korpatsch	-240.1	1534	1774	WARM	79
Mona Barthel	-254.2	1500	1754	WARM	193
Polina Iatcenko	-254.5	1484	1738	NEUTRAL	163
Sofia Costoulas	-256.1	1484	1740	WARM	150
Vendula Valdmannova	-269.7	1534	1804	WARM	199
Daria Snigur	-273.9	1589	1863	WARM	84

⚠ Caveat: Model CLV anti-correlated with skill (Phase A finding); treat parlays as paper.

Kalshi cross-match (independent fav parlays)

Label	Variance	Legs	Joint P	Payout	EV/$
2-leg fav cross-tournament: Raphael Collig + Miomir Kecmano	LOW	Raphael Collignon + Miomir Kecmanovic	0.437	2.78x	0.214

Kalshi same-match (correlated)

No combos surfaced.

PrizePicks slips

Label	Variance	Legs	Joint P	Payout	EV/$
2-pick MED-variance	MED	Mona Barthel MORE 6.5 Total Games Won, Yulia Putintseva MORE 18.5 Total Games	0.432	5.00x	1.160
2-pick HIGH-variance	HIGH	Jan-Lennard Struff LESS 2.5 Break Points Won, Raphael Collignon MORE 3.0 Break Points Won	0.395	10.00x	2.946
3-pick MED-variance	MED	Mona Barthel MORE 6.5 Total Games Won, Yulia Putintseva MORE 18.5 Total Games, Noma Noha Akugue MORE 19.0 Total Games	0.278	10.00x	1.782
3-pick HIGH-variance	HIGH	Jan-Lennard Struff LESS 2.5 Break Points Won, Raphael Collignon MORE 3.0 Break Points Won, Gonzalo Bueno LESS 4.5 Break Points Won	0.234	25.00x	4.851
4-pick MED-variance	MED	Mona Barthel MORE 6.5 Total Games Won, Yulia Putintseva MORE 18.5 Total Games, Noma Noha Akugue MORE 19.0 Total Games, Elina Avanesyan MORE 19.5 Total Games	0.174	18.00x	2.126
4-pick HIGH-variance	HIGH	Jan-Lennard Struff LESS 2.5 Break Points Won, Raphael Collignon MORE 3.0 Break Points Won, Gonzalo Bueno LESS 4.5 Break Points Won, Sebastian Baez MORE 3.0 Break Points Won	0.138	50.00x	5.899

⚠ Inverted CLV signal: win rate at POSITIVE CLV (0.429) < win rate at NEGATIVE CLV (0.6562). When we beat the close, we LOSE; when we lose the close, we WIN. Model is anti-correlated with skill. Real money gated.

CLV vs Pinnacle close (overall)

n picks total	1802
matched Pinnacle	370 (20.5%)
mean CLV (pp)	16.16
median CLV (pp)	15.824
win rate at +CLV	0.429
win rate at -CLV	0.6562

CLV by market price bucket (FLB signal)

Bucket	n	Mean CLV (pp)
<10%	30	32.535
10-30%	146	21.473
30-50%	129	11.786
50-70%	49	6.21
70-90%	8	3.478
>90%	8	1.915

Calibration buckets

n_total	1321
ECE (pp)	4.355
Brier Score	0.2417
Log Loss	0.6762

Predicted vs actual (10pp buckets)

Bucket	n	Predicted	Actual	Gap (pp)
0.2-0.30	20	0.2832	0.35	+6.68
0.3-0.40	154	0.3585	0.2792	-7.93
0.4-0.50	521	0.4513	0.4319	-1.95
0.5-0.60	487	0.5448	0.4949	-4.99
0.6-0.70	124	0.6405	0.5806	-5.98
0.7-0.80	14	0.7179	0.8571	+13.93
0.8-0.90	1	0.8232	1.0	+17.68

Source	DB / file	Last pulled	Age	Rows	Status
Kalshi KXATPMATCH	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-07-21T13:09:37.525078+00:00	6m	2008	fresh
Kalshi KXWTAMATCH	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-07-21T13:09:37.525078+00:00	6m	2032	fresh
Kalshi KXFRENCHOPEN	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-07-21T13:09:37.525078+00:00	6m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXFOPENMENSINGLE	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-07-21T13:09:37.525078+00:00	6m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-07-21T13:09:37.525078+00:00	6m	14	fresh
Kalshi KXUSOPEN	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-07-21T13:09:37.525078+00:00	6m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATPSETWINNER	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-07-21T13:09:37.525078+00:00	6m	4614	fresh
Kalshi KXATPTOTALSETS	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-07-21T13:09:37.525078+00:00	6m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATPSETSWEEP	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-07-21T13:09:37.525078+00:00	6m	2	fresh
Kalshi KXATPGAMESPREAD	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-07-21T13:09:37.525078+00:00	6m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATPEXACTMATCH	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-07-21T13:09:37.525078+00:00	6m	4566	fresh
Kalshi KXWTADOUBLES	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-07-21T13:09:37.525078+00:00	6m	266	fresh
Kalshi KXATP1RANK	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-07-21T13:09:37.525078+00:00	6m	16	fresh
elo last computed	tennis.sqlite	2026-06-21T17:36:52+00:00	715.65h	20430	stale
rankings last pulled	tennis.sqlite	2026-06-15T17:40:18+00:00	859.59h	11348	stale
rankings atp latest date	tennis.sqlite	2026-06-08	1045.26h	—	stale
rankings wta latest date	tennis.sqlite	2026-06-08	1045.26h	—	stale
mirror atp schedule	tennis.sqlite	2026-07-21T13:11:34.263371+00:00	4m	65	fresh
h2h last computed	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-17T10:11:57.514615+00:00	1563.06h	—	stale
h2h n pairs	tennis.sqlite	190184	missing	—	missing
last player db run	tennis.sqlite	1784639693	missing	—	missing
results last_run	tennis_results.sqlite	[2026-07-21T13:11:36.054540+00:00] 2026-07-21T13:11:34.608812+00:00; dates=['20260720']; rows=151; resolved=147	missing	—	missing
pp_edges CSV	pp_edges_tennis_2026-07-21.csv	2026-07-21T13:15:01.512938+00:00	0m	—	fresh
kalshi edges JSON	tennis_kalshi_edges_2026-07-21.json	2026-07-21T13:14:58.972259+00:00	0m	—	fresh
paper trades PP	paper_trades_pp_tennis_2026-07-21.json	2026-07-21T13:15:14.352532+00:00	0m	—	fresh
paper trades Kalshi	paper_trades_kalshi_tennis_2026-07-21.json	2026-07-21T13:15:14.821427+00:00	0m	—	fresh
daily payload	daily_tennis_2026-07-21.json	2026-07-21T13:15:16.720850+00:00	0m	—	fresh
PP movement	pp_line_movement_tennis_2026-07-21.csv	2026-07-21T13:15:16.230166+00:00	0m	—	fresh
PP calibration	pp_calibration_tennis.json	2026-07-21T13:15:16.166254+00:00	0m	—	fresh