Tennis EdgeBoard - 2026-05-26

Kalshi KXATPMATCH 2m · 1842rKalshi KXWTAMATCH 2m · 1696rKalshi KXFRENCHOPEN 2mKalshi KXFOPENMENSINGLE 2mKalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM 2m · 14rKalshi KXUSOPEN 2mKalshi KXATPSETWINNER 2m · 3764rKalshi KXATPTOTALSETS 2mKalshi KXATPSETSWEEP 2m · 1rKalshi KXATPGAMESPREAD 2mKalshi KXATPEXACTMATCH 2m · 1642rKalshi KXWTADOUBLES 2m · 66rKalshi KXATP1RANK 2m · 16relo last computed 2m · 20051rrankings last pulled 2m · 7538rrankings atp latest date 41.7hrankings wta latest date 41.7hmirror atp schedule 0m · 142rh2h last computed 9dh2h n pairs missinglast player db run missingresults last_run missingpp_edges CSV 0mkalshi edges JSON 0mpaper trades PP 0mpaper trades Kalshi 0mdaily payload 0mPP movement 0mPP calibration 0m

Matches today

scheduled

ELITE edges

across Kalshi + PP

STRONG edges

tier 2

MED edges

tier 3

Paper locks

Kalshi + PP

Real Money YTD

-$10.00

paper-gate restored

Qualifying skipped

filtered out today

Last refresh

17:40

2026-05-26 UTC

🏆 Best Bet (main-draw)

No main-draw Kalshi pick survived qualifying filter today.

🎯 Safest (P ≥ 65%)

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier · Round Of 128 hard · LOW

71%

Heavy main-draw favorite · PAPER

Edge +15.6pp
Ask 55¢

💎 Biggest Payout (ELITE)

No ELITE main-draw longshot today.

#	Match	Tournament	Round	Surface	Start	ELO A	ELO B	ELO diff	Kalshi event
1	Jaime Faria vs Denis Shapovalov	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 15:20	1660	1498	+162	KXATPMATCH-26MAY24FARSHA
2	Jaime Faria vs Denis Shapovalov	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 15:20	1660	1498	+162	KXATPMATCH-26MAY24FARSHA
3	Jacob Fearnley vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 15:55	1582	1693	-111	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY25FEACER-2
4	Jacob Fearnley vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 15:55	1582	1693	-111	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY25FEACER-2
5	Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Comesana	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 16:10	1594	1578	+16	KXATPMATCH-26MAY25QUICOM
6	Sebastian Ofner vs Luciano Darderi	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 16:10	1606	1767	-161	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY25OFNDAR-2
7	Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Comesana	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 16:10	1594	1578	+16	KXATPMATCH-26MAY25QUICOM
8	Sebastian Ofner vs Luciano Darderi	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 16:10	1606	1767	-161	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY25OFNDAR-2
9	Simona Waltert vs Katerina Siniakova	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 16:15	1792	1549	+243	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY24WALSIN
10	Simona Waltert vs Katerina Siniakova	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 16:15	1792	1549	+243	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY24WALSIN
11	Elena Pridankina vs Oleksandra Oliynykova	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 16:30	1715	1831	-115	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY24PRIOLI
12	Elena Pridankina vs Oleksandra Oliynykova	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 16:30	1715	1831	-115	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY24PRIOLI
13	Hanne Vandewinkel vs Madison Keys	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 16:55	1650	1706	-56	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY24VANKEY
14	? vs Daniel Altmaier	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 16:55	—	1610	—	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY26AUGALT-3
15	Hanne Vandewinkel vs Madison Keys	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 16:55	1650	1706	-56	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY24VANKEY
16	? vs Daniel Altmaier	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 16:55	—	1610	—	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY26AUGALT-3
17	Victoria Mboko vs Nikola Bartunkova	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 17:45	1704	1707	-3	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY24MBOBAR
18	Victoria Mboko vs Nikola Bartunkova	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 17:45	1704	1707	-3	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY24MBOBAR
19	Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 18:15	1857	1588	+269	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY26SINTAB-3
20	Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 18:15	1857	1588	+269	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY26SINTAB-3
21	Kimberly Birrell vs Jessica Pegula	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 19:15	1457	1701	-244	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY24BIRPEG
22	Kimberly Birrell vs Jessica Pegula	Roland Garros	Round 1	clay	May 26 19:15	1457	1701	-244	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY24BIRPEG

#	Match	Our pick	Our P	Mkt P	Ask	Edge	Tier	Decision	Vol 24h	Surface	Round	EV/$
1	Katerina Siniakova vs Simona Waltert	Simona Waltert	66.3%	10.0%	10¢	+56.3pp	LOW	PAPER	202507	clay	Round 1	+0.563
2	Jacob Fearnley vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo	Jacob Fearnley	54.0%	3.0%	3¢	+51.0pp	LOW	PAPER	356663	hard	Round Of 128	+0.510
3	Iga Swiatek vs Sara Bejlek	Sara Bejlek	51.0%	6.0%	6¢	+45.0pp	LOW	PAPER	1415	clay	Round 2	+0.450
4	Amanda Anisimova vs Julia Grabher	Julia Grabher	63.9%	19.0%	19¢	+44.9pp	LOW	PAPER	1128	clay	Round 2	+0.449
5	Luciano Darderi vs Sebastian Ofner	Sebastian Ofner	59.8%	18.0%	18¢	+41.8pp	LOW	PAPER	429080	hard	Round Of 128	+0.418
6	James Duckworth vs Rafael Jodar	James Duckworth	44.2%	6.0%	6¢	+38.2pp	LOW	PAPER	14929	clay	Round 2	+0.382
7	Hugo Gaston vs Francisco Cerundolo	Hugo Gaston	47.7%	12.0%	12¢	+35.7pp	LOW	PAPER	3369	hard	Round Of 64	+0.357
8	Denis Shapovalov vs Jaime Faria	Denis Shapovalov	38.5%	3.0%	3¢	+35.5pp	LOW	SKIP	760316	clay	Round 1	+0.355
9	Marina Bassols Ribera vs Mirra Andreeva	Marina Bassols Ribera	41.2%	6.0%	6¢	+35.2pp	LOW	PAPER	960	clay	Round 2	+0.352
10	Madison Keys vs Hanne Vandewinkel	Hanne Vandewinkel	41.9%	7.0%	7¢	+34.9pp	LOW	PAPER	103837	clay	Round 1	+0.349
11	Elina Svitolina vs Kaitlin Quevedo	Kaitlin Quevedo	43.8%	9.0%	9¢	+34.8pp	LOW	PAPER	870	clay	Round 2	+0.348
12	Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Comesana	Ethan Quinn	55.0%	21.0%	21¢	+34.0pp	LOW	PAPER	838881	clay	Round 1	+0.341
13	Vit Kopriva vs Martin Landaluce	Martin Landaluce	56.0%	90.0%	90¢	-34.0pp	LOW	PAPER	0	hard	Round Of 64	-0.340
14	Novak Djokovic vs Valentin Royer	Valentin Royer	45.8%	12.0%	12¢	+33.8pp	LOW	PAPER	47229	clay	Round 2	+0.338
15	Caty McNally vs Belinda Bencic	Caty McNally	59.3%	26.0%	26¢	+33.3pp	LOW	PAPER	342	clay	Round 2	+0.333
16	Anna Kalinskaya vs Alina Korneeva	Anna Kalinskaya	59.0%	92.0%	92¢	-33.0pp	LOW	PAPER	0	clay	Round 2	-0.330
17	Moise Kouame vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	Moise Kouame	58.0%	26.0%	26¢	+32.0pp	LOW	PAPER	122	hard	Round Of 64	+0.320
18	Daria Kasatkina vs Susan Bandecchi	Susan Bandecchi	44.6%	13.0%	13¢	+31.6pp	LOW	PAPER	365	clay	Round 2	+0.317
19	Kamilla Rakhimova vs Karolina Muchova	Kamilla Rakhimova	42.5%	11.0%	11¢	+31.5pp	LOW	PAPER	355	clay	Round 2	+0.315
20	Francesca Jones vs Marie Bouzkova	Francesca Jones	55.2%	24.0%	24¢	+31.2pp	LOW	PAPER	760	clay	Round 2	+0.312
21	Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Elena Pridankina	Elena Pridankina	41.1%	10.0%	10¢	+31.1pp	LOW	PAPER	81916	clay	Round 1	+0.311
22	Elena Rybakina vs Yuliia Starodubtseva	Yuliia Starodubtseva	39.6%	9.0%	9¢	+30.6pp	LOW	PAPER	1417	clay	Round 2	+0.306
23	Elise Mertens vs Maja Chwalinska	Maja Chwalinska	64.2%	35.0%	35¢	+29.2pp	LOW	PAPER	2657	clay	Round 2	+0.292
24	Jessica Pegula vs Kimberly Birrell	Kimberly Birrell	33.2%	5.0%	5¢	+28.2pp	LOW	PAPER	41331	clay	Round 1	+0.282
25	Marta Kostyuk vs Katie Volynets	Katie Volynets	41.9%	15.0%	15¢	+26.9pp	LOW	PAPER	2747	clay	Round 2	+0.269
26	Victoria Mboko vs Nikola Bartunkova	Nikola Bartunkova	50.4%	25.0%	25¢	+25.4pp	LOW	PAPER	35794	clay	Round 1	+0.254
27	Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu	Yibing Wu	53.1%	28.0%	28¢	+25.1pp	LOW	PAPER	1295	hard	Round Of 64	+0.251
28	Jasmine Paolini vs Solana Sierra	Solana Sierra	60.5%	36.0%	36¢	+24.5pp	LOW	PAPER	688	clay	Round 2	+0.245
29	Naomi Osaka vs Donna Vekic	Donna Vekic	52.2%	28.0%	28¢	+24.2pp	LOW	PAPER	50	clay	Round 2	+0.242
30	Jelena Ostapenko vs Magda Linette	Magda Linette	47.1%	23.0%	23¢	+24.1pp	LOW	PAPER	375	clay	Round 2	+0.241
31	Brandon Nakashima vs Luca Van Assche	Luca Van Assche	53.9%	32.0%	32¢	+21.9pp	LOW	PAPER	936	hard	Round Of 64	+0.219
32	Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang	Xiyu Wang	56.8%	35.0%	35¢	+21.8pp	LOW	PAPER	1032	hard	Round Of 64	+0.218
33	Sorana Cirstea vs Eva Lys	Eva Lys	44.4%	23.0%	23¢	+21.4pp	LOW	PAPER	1472	clay	Round 2	+0.213
34	Aryna Sabalenka vs Elsa Jacquemot	Elsa Jacquemot	30.1%	10.0%	10¢	+20.1pp	LOW	PAPER	901	clay	Round 2	+0.201
35	Alexander Zverev vs Tomas Machac	Tomas Machac	34.8%	15.0%	15¢	+19.8pp	LOW	PAPER	13421	clay	Round 2	+0.198
36	Anastasia Potapova vs Katie Boulter	Katie Boulter	40.7%	21.0%	21¢	+19.7pp	LOW	PAPER	157	clay	Round 2	+0.197
37	McCartney Kessler vs Diana Shnaider	McCartney Kessler	40.0%	23.0%	23¢	+17.0pp	LOW	PAPER	1346	clay	Round 2	+0.170
38	Claire Liu vs Maria Sakkari	Claire Liu	53.8%	37.0%	37¢	+16.9pp	LOW	PAPER	45	clay	Round 2	+0.168
39	Alejandro Tabilo vs Valentin Vacherot	Valentin Vacherot	57.4%	41.0%	41¢	+16.4pp	LOW	PAPER	67	hard	Round Of 64	+0.164
40	Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier	Felix Auger-Aliassime	70.6%	55.0%	55¢	+15.6pp	LOW	PAPER	208366	hard	Round Of 128	+0.156
41	Ben Shelton vs Raphael Collignon	Raphael Collignon	53.6%	38.0%	38¢	+15.6pp	LOW	PAPER	25910	clay	Round 2	+0.156
42	Andrey Rublev vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli	Camilo Ugo Carabelli	37.9%	23.0%	23¢	+14.9pp	LOW	PAPER	753	hard	Round Of 64	+0.149
43	Pablo Carreno Busta vs Thanasi Kokkinakis	Thanasi Kokkinakis	44.7%	30.0%	30¢	+14.7pp	LOW	PAPER	4940	clay	Round 2	+0.147
44	Karen Khachanov vs Marco Trungelliti	Marco Trungelliti	37.1%	23.0%	23¢	+14.1pp	LOW	PAPER	53267	hard	Round Of 64	+0.141
45	Jesper De Jong vs Federico Cina	Federico Cina	56.9%	43.0%	43¢	+13.9pp	LOW	PAPER	6636	hard	Round Of 64	+0.139
46	Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic	Dino Prizmic	60.9%	47.0%	47¢	+13.9pp	LOW	PAPER	10043	clay	Round 2	+0.139
47	Casper Ruud vs Hamad Medjedovic	Hamad Medjedovic	44.4%	31.0%	31¢	+13.4pp	LOW	PAPER	6716	hard	Round Of 64	+0.134
48	Tommy Paul vs Lorenzo Sonego	Lorenzo Sonego	29.3%	16.0%	16¢	+13.3pp	LOW	PAPER	11235	clay	Round 2	+0.133
49	Jakub Mensik vs Mariano Navone	Mariano Navone	59.1%	46.0%	46¢	+13.1pp	LOW	PAPER	1028	clay	Round 2	+0.131
50	Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	58.5%	46.0%	46¢	+12.5pp	LOW	PAPER	5510	hard	Round Of 64	+0.125
51	Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen	Nishesh Basavareddy	48.2%	36.0%	36¢	+12.2pp	LOW	PAPER	3015	hard	Round Of 64	+0.122
52	Jil Teichmann vs Magdalena Frech	Jil Teichmann	53.6%	42.0%	42¢	+11.7pp	LOW	PAPER	608	clay	Round 2	+0.116
53	Daria Snigur vs Peyton Stearns	Daria Snigur	44.5%	35.0%	35¢	+9.5pp	LOW	PAPER	506	clay	Round 2	+0.095
54	Miomir Kecmanovic vs Nuno Borges	Nuno Borges	46.0%	37.0%	37¢	+9.0pp	LOW	PAPER	2947	hard	Round Of 64	+0.090
55	Alex de Minaur vs Alexander Blockx	Alexander Blockx	47.8%	39.0%	39¢	+8.8pp	LOW	PAPER	123159	hard	Round Of 64	+0.088
56	Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Matteo Arnaldi	Matteo Arnaldi	41.9%	35.0%	35¢	+6.9pp	LOW	PAPER	931	hard	Round Of 64	+0.069
57	Arthur Rinderknech vs Matteo Berrettini	Matteo Berrettini	58.4%	52.0%	52¢	+6.4pp	LOW	PAPER	1616	clay	Round 2	+0.064
58	Yulia Putintseva vs Camila Osorio	Yulia Putintseva	47.9%	43.0%	43¢	+4.9pp	LOW	PAPER	79	clay	Round 2	+0.049
59	Xinyu Wang vs Tamara Korpatsch	Xinyu Wang	57.9%	53.0%	53¢	+4.9pp	LOW	PAPER	909	hard	Round Of 64	+0.049
60	Emma Navarro vs Iva Jovic	Iva Jovic	57.2%	53.0%	53¢	+4.2pp	LOW	PAPER	1657	clay	Round 2	+0.042
61	Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Learner Tien	Learner Tien	69.6%	67.0%	67¢	+2.6pp	LOW	PAPER	764	hard	Round Of 64	+0.026
62	Quentin Halys vs Ugo Humbert	Quentin Halys	44.8%	43.0%	43¢	+1.8pp	LOW	SKIP	795	hard	Round Of 64	+0.018
63	Alycia Parks vs Viktorija Golubic	Alycia Parks	51.3%	50.0%	50¢	+1.3pp	LOW	SKIP	3511	clay	Round 2	+0.013
64	Zachary Svajda vs Adam Walton	Zachary Svajda	47.2%	48.0%	48¢	-0.8pp	LOW	SKIP	61	clay	Round 2	-0.008
65	Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe	Hubert Hurkacz	57.3%	58.0%	58¢	-0.7pp	LOW	SKIP	16518	clay	Round 2	-0.007

#	Player	Stat	PP line	Our proj	Edge %	Side	Tier	Opp	Surface	Demon	Payout
1	Kaitlin Quevedo🧊 COLD	Break Points Won	1.5	4.61	+207.1%	MORE	LOW	Elina Svitolina	clay	—	1.0x
2	Yuliia Starodubtseva🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	1.5	4.41	+194.1%	MORE	LOW	Elena Rybakina	clay	—	1.0x
3	Kamilla Rakhimova🧊 COLD	Break Points Won	2.0	4.56	+128.0%	MORE	LOW	Karolina Muchova	clay	—	1.0x
4	James Duckworth⏳ RTRN	Break Points Won	1.5	3.30	+120.2%	MORE	LOW	Rafael Jodar	clay	—	1.0x
5	Kimberly Birrell	Total Games Won	5.0	9.00	+80.0%	MORE	LOW	Jessica Pegula	clay	—	0.5x
6	Kaitlin Quevedo🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	5.5	9.78	+77.8%	MORE	LOW	Elina Svitolina	clay	—	0.5x
7	Alexander Zverev🟨 WARM	Total Tie Breaks	0.5	0.12	+75.7%	LESS	LOW	Tomas Machac	clay	—	1.0x
8	Marina Bassols Ribera🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	5.5	9.63	+75.2%	MORE	LOW	Mirra Andreeva	clay	—	0.5x
9	Julia Grabher	Total Games Won	7.5	11.80	+57.4%	MORE	LOW	Amanda Anisimova	clay	—	0.5x
10	Alex Michelsen🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	20.5	9.34	+54.5%	LESS	LOW	Nishesh Basavareddy	clay	—	0.5x
11	Susan Bandecchi🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	6.5	10.04	+54.4%	MORE	LOW	Daria Kasatkina	clay	—	0.5x
12	Miomir Kecmanovic🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	20.5	9.42	+54.0%	LESS	LOW	Nuno Borges	clay	—	0.5x
13	Ugo Humbert🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	20.5	9.46	+53.8%	LESS	LOW	Quentin Halys	clay	—	0.5x
14	Karen Khachanov🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	19.5	9.08	+53.4%	LESS	LOW	Marco Trungelliti	clay	—	0.5x
15	Federico Cina🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	19.5	9.17	+53.0%	LESS	LOW	Jesper De Jong	clay	—	0.5x
16	Arthur Rinderknech	Total Games Won	20.5	9.76	+52.4%	LESS	LOW	Matteo Berrettini	clay	—	0.5x
17	Andrey Rublev🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	20.5	10.04	+51.0%	LESS	LOW	Camilo Ugo Carabelli	clay	—	0.5x
18	Jakub Mensik🟨 WARM	Total Tie Breaks	0.5	0.25	+50.8%	LESS	LOW	Mariano Navone	clay	—	1.0x
19	Federico Cina🧊 COLD	Total Tie Breaks	0.5	0.25	+50.6%	LESS	LOW	Jesper De Jong	clay	—	1.0x
20	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	Total Games Won	19.5	9.66	+50.5%	LESS	LOW	Thiago Agustin Tirante	clay	—	0.5x
21	Karen Khachanov🧊 COLD	Total Tie Breaks	0.5	0.25	+50.5%	LESS	LOW	Marco Trungelliti	clay	—	1.0x
22	Ben Shelton🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	20.5	10.16	+50.4%	LESS	LOW	Raphael Collignon	clay	—	0.5x
23	Jakub Mensik🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	19.5	9.68	+50.4%	LESS	LOW	Mariano Navone	clay	—	0.5x
24	Alex Michelsen🧊 COLD	Total Tie Breaks	0.5	0.25	+50.2%	LESS	LOW	Nishesh Basavareddy	clay	—	1.0x
25	Zachary Svajda🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	19.5	9.71	+50.2%	LESS	LOW	Adam Walton	clay	—	1.0x
26	Andrey Rublev🟨 WARM	Total Tie Breaks	0.5	0.25	+50.2%	LESS	LOW	Camilo Ugo Carabelli	clay	—	1.0x
27	Miomir Kecmanovic🧊 COLD	Total Tie Breaks	0.5	0.25	+50.1%	LESS	LOW	Nuno Borges	clay	—	1.0x
28	Joao Fonseca🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	19.5	9.77	+49.9%	LESS	LOW	Dino Prizmic	clay	—	0.5x
29	Frances Tiafoe⏳ RTRN	Total Games Won	19.5	9.85	+49.5%	LESS	LOW	Hubert Hurkacz	clay	—	0.5x
30	Kamilla Rakhimova🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	6.5	9.71	+49.3%	MORE	LOW	Karolina Muchova	clay	—	0.5x
31	Brandon Nakashima	Total Games Won	20.5	10.43	+49.1%	LESS	LOW	Luca Van Assche	clay	—	0.5x
32	Caty McNally	Break Points Won	3.5	5.19	+48.4%	MORE	LOW	Belinda Bencic	clay	—	1.0x
33	Adam Walton🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	19.5	10.24	+47.5%	LESS	LOW	Zachary Svajda	clay	—	1.0x
34	Tamara Korpatsch🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	4.5	2.40	+46.7%	LESS	ELITE	Xinyu Wang	clay	—	1.0x
35	Quentin Halys🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	19.5	10.50	+46.2%	LESS	LOW	Ugo Humbert	clay	—	0.5x
36	Matteo Arnaldi🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	18.5	10.01	+45.9%	LESS	LOW	Stefanos Tsitsipas	clay	—	1.0x
37	Thanasi Kokkinakis⏳ RTRN	Total Games Won	18.5	10.02	+45.8%	LESS	LOW	Pablo Carreno Busta	clay	—	0.5x
38	Hubert Hurkacz🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	20.5	11.13	+45.7%	LESS	LOW	Frances Tiafoe	clay	—	0.5x
39	Hamad Medjedovic⏳ RTRN	Total Games Won	18.5	10.09	+45.5%	LESS	LOW	Casper Ruud	clay	—	0.5x
40	Matteo Berrettini	Total Games Won	20.5	11.26	+45.1%	LESS	LOW	Arthur Rinderknech	clay	—	0.5x
41	Marco Trungelliti	Break Points Won	2.5	3.61	+44.5%	MORE	LOW	Karen Khachanov	clay	—	1.0x
42	Raphael Collignon⏳ RTRN	Total Games Won	19.5	10.84	+44.4%	LESS	LOW	Ben Shelton	clay	—	0.5x
43	Casper Ruud🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	19.5	10.85	+44.4%	LESS	LOW	Hamad Medjedovic	clay	—	0.5x
44	Yibing Wu🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	17.5	9.74	+44.4%	LESS	LOW	Flavio Cobolli	clay	—	0.5x
45	Pablo Carreno Busta🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	19.5	11.03	+43.5%	LESS	LOW	Thanasi Kokkinakis	clay	—	0.5x
46	Luca Van Assche	Total Games Won	18.5	10.51	+43.2%	LESS	LOW	Brandon Nakashima	clay	—	0.5x
47	Stefanos Tsitsipas	Total Games Won	19.5	11.08	+43.2%	LESS	LOW	Matteo Arnaldi	clay	—	1.0x
48	Nuno Borges🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	18.5	10.52	+43.2%	LESS	LOW	Miomir Kecmanovic	clay	—	0.5x
49	Flavio Cobolli🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	19.5	11.26	+42.2%	LESS	LOW	Yibing Wu	clay	—	0.5x
50	Mariano Navone🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	19.5	11.28	+42.2%	LESS	LOW	Jakub Mensik	clay	—	0.5x
51	Thiago Agustin Tirante🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	19.5	11.29	+42.1%	LESS	LOW	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	clay	—	0.5x
52	Jesper De Jong	Total Games Won	19.5	11.30	+42.0%	LESS	LOW	Federico Cina	clay	—	0.5x
53	Joao Fonseca🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	5.5	3.21	+41.7%	LESS	LOW	Dino Prizmic	clay	—	1.0x
54	Rafael Jodar🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	6.0	3.53	+41.1%	LESS	LOW	James Duckworth	clay	—	1.0x
55	Xiyu Wang🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	3.5	4.93	+40.9%	MORE	LOW	Hailey Baptiste	clay	—	1.0x
56	Nishesh Basavareddy🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	18.5	11.15	+39.8%	LESS	LOW	Alex Michelsen	clay	—	0.5x
57	Dino Prizmic🔥 HOT	Total Games Won	19.5	11.82	+39.4%	LESS	LOW	Joao Fonseca	clay	—	0.5x
58	Alexander Zverev🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	19.5	11.84	+39.3%	LESS	LOW	Tomas Machac	clay	—	0.5x
59	Matteo Berrettini	Total Games	40.5	24.91	+38.5%	LESS	LOW	Arthur Rinderknech	clay	—	0.5x
60	Hubert Hurkacz🟨 WARM	Total Games	40.5	25.12	+38.0%	LESS	LOW	Frances Tiafoe	clay	—	0.5x
61	Tommy Paul🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	19.5	12.11	+37.9%	LESS	LOW	Lorenzo Sonego	clay	—	0.5x
62	Magda Linette	Break Points Won	3.5	4.82	+37.6%	MORE	LOW	Jelena Ostapenko	clay	—	1.0x
63	Camilo Ugo Carabelli	Total Games Won	17.5	10.92	+37.6%	LESS	LOW	Andrey Rublev	clay	—	0.5x
64	Lorenzo Sonego🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	13.5	8.44	+37.5%	LESS	LOW	Tommy Paul	clay	—	0.5x
65	Tomas Machac	Total Games Won	14.5	9.10	+37.2%	LESS	LOW	Alexander Zverev	clay	—	0.5x
66	Thiago Agustin Tirante🟨 WARM	Total Games	39.5	24.87	+37.0%	LESS	LOW	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	clay	—	0.5x
67	Adam Walton🧊 COLD	Total Games	39.5	25.04	+36.6%	LESS	LOW	Zachary Svajda	clay	—	0.5x
68	Mirra Andreeva🟨 WARM	Total Games	17.5	23.90	+36.6%	MORE	LOW	Marina Bassols Ribera	clay	—	0.5x
69	Ugo Humbert🧊 COLD	Total Games	39.5	25.09	+36.5%	LESS	LOW	Quentin Halys	clay	—	0.5x
70	Elina Svitolina	Total Games	18.0	24.55	+36.4%	MORE	LOW	Kaitlin Quevedo	clay	—	0.5x
71	Hubert Hurkacz🟨 WARM	Total Games	39.5	25.12	+36.4%	LESS	LOW	Frances Tiafoe	clay	—	0.5x
72	Ben Shelton🟨 WARM	Total Games	39.5	25.16	+36.3%	LESS	LOW	Raphael Collignon	clay	—	0.5x
73	Joao Fonseca🟨 WARM	Total Games	38.0	24.71	+35.0%	LESS	LOW	Dino Prizmic	clay	—	0.5x
74	Jakub Mensik🟨 WARM	Total Games	37.5	24.59	+34.4%	LESS	LOW	Mariano Navone	clay	—	0.5x
75	Federico Cina🧊 COLD	Total Games	37.5	24.62	+34.4%	LESS	LOW	Jesper De Jong	clay	—	0.5x
76	Mariano Navone🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	5.5	3.61	+34.3%	LESS	LOW	Jakub Mensik	clay	—	1.0x
77	Alex Michelsen🧊 COLD	Total Games	37.5	24.97	+33.4%	LESS	LOW	Nishesh Basavareddy	clay	—	0.5x
78	Miomir Kecmanovic🧊 COLD	Total Games	37.5	25.10	+33.1%	LESS	LOW	Nuno Borges	clay	—	0.5x
79	Stefanos Tsitsipas	Total Games	37.5	25.13	+33.0%	LESS	LOW	Matteo Arnaldi	clay	—	0.5x
80	Brandon Nakashima	Total Games	37.5	25.13	+33.0%	LESS	LOW	Luca Van Assche	clay	—	0.5x
81	Casper Ruud🟨 WARM	Total Games	37.5	25.18	+32.9%	LESS	LOW	Hamad Medjedovic	clay	—	0.5x
82	Jessica Pegula🟨 WARM	Total Games	17.0	22.57	+32.8%	MORE	LOW	Kimberly Birrell	clay	—	0.5x
83	Learner Tien🧊 COLD	Total Games	35.5	23.90	+32.7%	LESS	LOW	Facundo Diaz Acosta	clay	—	1.0x
84	Tommy Paul🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	5.5	3.71	+32.6%	LESS	LOW	Lorenzo Sonego	clay	—	1.0x
85	Flavio Cobolli🟨 WARM	Total Games	37.0	24.97	+32.5%	LESS	LOW	Yibing Wu	clay	—	0.5x
86	Karolina Muchova⏳ RTRN	Total Games	18.5	24.44	+32.1%	MORE	LOW	Kamilla Rakhimova	clay	—	0.5x
87	Katie Volynets	Break Points Won	3.5	4.61	+31.7%	MORE	LOW	Marta Kostyuk	clay	—	1.0x
88	Flavio Cobolli🟨 WARM	Total Games	36.5	24.97	+31.6%	LESS	LOW	Yibing Wu	clay	—	0.5x
89	Daria Kasatkina🟨 WARM	Total Games	18.5	24.33	+31.5%	MORE	LOW	Susan Bandecchi	clay	—	0.5x
90	Andrey Rublev🟨 WARM	Total Games	36.5	25.10	+31.2%	LESS	LOW	Camilo Ugo Carabelli	clay	—	0.5x
91	Pablo Carreno Busta🟨 WARM	Total Games	36.5	25.12	+31.2%	LESS	LOW	Thanasi Kokkinakis	clay	—	0.5x
92	Tommy Paul🟨 WARM	Total Games	33.5	23.07	+31.1%	LESS	LOW	Lorenzo Sonego	clay	—	0.5x
93	Alejandro Tabilo🟨 WARM	Total Games	36.5	25.14	+31.1%	LESS	LOW	Valentin Vacherot	clay	—	1.0x
94	Alexander Zverev🟨 WARM	Total Games	34.5	23.78	+31.1%	LESS	LOW	Tomas Machac	clay	—	0.5x
95	Tommy Paul🟨 WARM	Total Sets	3.5	2.42	+30.9%	LESS	LOW	Lorenzo Sonego	clay	—	1.0x
96	Karen Khachanov🧊 COLD	Total Games	35.5	24.64	+30.6%	LESS	LOW	Marco Trungelliti	clay	—	0.5x
97	Marco Trungelliti	Total Games Won	16.5	11.46	+30.6%	LESS	LOW	Karen Khachanov	clay	—	0.5x
98	Ugo Humbert🧊 COLD	Break Points Won	4.5	3.13	+30.5%	LESS	LOW	Quentin Halys	clay	—	1.0x
99	Alexander Zverev🟨 WARM	Total Sets	3.5	2.43	+30.5%	LESS	LOW	Tomas Machac	clay	—	1.0x
100	Katie Volynets	Total Games Won	7.5	9.78	+30.4%	MORE	LOW	Marta Kostyuk	clay	—	0.5x
101	Clement Tabur🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	7.0	8.94	+27.7%	MORE	LOW	Jannik Sinner	clay	—	0.5x
102	Jesper De Jong	Break Points Won	5.0	3.61	+27.7%	LESS	LOW	Federico Cina	clay	—	1.0x
103	Elena Rybakina🟨 WARM	Total Games	18.5	23.57	+27.4%	MORE	LOW	Yuliia Starodubtseva	clay	—	0.5x
104	Hugo Gaston	Total Games Won	12.5	9.10	+27.2%	LESS	LOW	Francisco Cerundolo	clay	—	0.5x
105	Alexander Zverev🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	5.0	3.67	+26.6%	LESS	LOW	Tomas Machac	clay	—	1.0x
106	Brandon Nakashima	Total Tie Breaks	0.5	0.37	+25.4%	LESS	LOW	Luca Van Assche	clay	—	1.0x
107	Valentin Royer🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	13.5	10.10	+25.2%	LESS	LOW	Novak Djokovic	clay	—	0.5x
108	Nuno Borges🧊 COLD	Break Points Won	4.5	3.37	+25.1%	LESS	LOW	Miomir Kecmanovic	clay	—	1.0x
109	Dino Prizmic🔥 HOT	Break Points Won	5.0	3.76	+24.7%	LESS	LOW	Joao Fonseca	clay	—	1.0x
110	Alycia Parks🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	4.0	4.99	+24.6%	MORE	LOW	Viktorija Golubic	clay	—	1.0x
111	Francisco Cerundolo🟨 WARM	Total Games	31.5	23.78	+24.5%	LESS	LOW	Hugo Gaston	clay	—	0.5x
112	Marta Kostyuk🟨 WARM	Total Games	19.5	24.01	+23.1%	MORE	LOW	Katie Volynets	clay	—	0.5x
113	Sorana Cirstea🟨 WARM	Total Games	20.0	24.44	+22.2%	MORE	LOW	Eva Lys	clay	—	0.5x
114	Francesca Jones	Total Games Won	9.0	10.95	+21.6%	MORE	LOW	Marie Bouzkova	clay	—	0.5x
115	Novak Djokovic⏳ RTRN	Total Games	32.0	25.12	+21.5%	LESS	LOW	Valentin Royer	clay	—	0.5x
116	Marie Bouzkova🟨 WARM	Total Games	20.0	24.28	+21.4%	MORE	LOW	Francesca Jones	clay	—	0.5x
117	Magda Linette	Total Games Won	8.5	10.26	+20.8%	MORE	LOW	Jelena Ostapenko	clay	—	0.5x
118	Tomas Machac	Break Points Won	2.5	3.00	+19.9%	MORE	LOW	Alexander Zverev	clay	—	1.0x
119	Sorana Cirstea🟨 WARM	Total Games	20.5	24.44	+19.2%	MORE	LOW	Eva Lys	clay	—	0.5x
120	Jelena Ostapenko	Total Games	20.5	24.43	+19.2%	MORE	LOW	Magda Linette	clay	—	0.5x
121	Diana Shnaider	Total Games	20.0	23.83	+19.1%	MORE	LOW	McCartney Kessler	clay	—	0.5x
122	Amanda Anisimova⏳ RTRN	Total Games	19.5	23.21	+19.1%	MORE	LOW	Julia Grabher	clay	—	0.5x
123	Iga Swiatek	Break Points Won	6.0	4.88	+18.7%	LESS	LOW	Sara Bejlek	clay	—	1.0x
124	Marie Bouzkova🟨 WARM	Total Games	20.5	24.28	+18.4%	MORE	LOW	Francesca Jones	clay	—	0.5x
125	Belinda Bencic🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	5.5	4.51	+18.0%	LESS	LOW	Caty McNally	clay	—	1.0x
126	Peyton Stearns	Total Games	20.5	24.16	+17.9%	MORE	LOW	Daria Snigur	clay	—	0.5x
127	Naomi Osaka🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	12.5	10.31	+17.6%	LESS	LOW	Donna Vekic	clay	—	1.0x
128	Belinda Bencic🟨 WARM	Total Games	20.5	23.98	+17.0%	MORE	LOW	Caty McNally	clay	—	0.5x
129	Camila Osorio	Total Games	21.0	24.48	+16.6%	MORE	LOW	Yulia Putintseva	clay	—	0.5x
130	Elena Rybakina🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	4.5	5.24	+16.5%	MORE	LOW	Yuliia Starodubtseva	clay	—	1.0x
131	Hailey Baptiste🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	12.5	10.50	+16.0%	LESS	LOW	Xiyu Wang	clay	—	0.5x
132	Anastasia Potapova🟨 WARM	Total Games	20.5	23.75	+15.9%	MORE	LOW	Katie Boulter	clay	—	0.5x
133	Eva Lys🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	8.5	9.83	+15.6%	MORE	LOW	Sorana Cirstea	clay	—	0.5x
134	Francesca Jones	Total Games Won	9.5	10.95	+15.2%	MORE	LOW	Marie Bouzkova	clay	—	0.5x
135	Peyton Stearns	Total Games	21.0	24.16	+15.1%	MORE	LOW	Daria Snigur	clay	—	0.5x
136	Camila Osorio	Total Games	21.5	24.48	+13.9%	MORE	LOW	Yulia Putintseva	clay	—	0.5x
137	Hailey Baptiste🟨 WARM	Total Games	21.5	24.48	+13.8%	MORE	LOW	Xiyu Wang	clay	—	0.5x
138	Maria Sakkari🧊 COLD	Total Games	21.5	24.42	+13.6%	MORE	LOW	Claire Liu	clay	—	0.5x
139	Marta Kostyuk🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	6.0	5.19	+13.6%	LESS	LOW	Katie Volynets	clay	—	1.0x
140	Rafael Jodar🟨 WARM	Total Games	29.0	25.08	+13.5%	LESS	LOW	James Duckworth	clay	—	0.5x
141	Naomi Osaka🟨 WARM	Total Games	21.5	24.38	+13.4%	MORE	LOW	Donna Vekic	clay	—	0.5x
142	Katie Boulter	Total Games Won	8.5	9.64	+13.4%	MORE	LOW	Anastasia Potapova	clay	—	0.5x
143	Daria Snigur🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	11.5	9.97	+13.3%	LESS	LOW	Peyton Stearns	clay	—	0.5x
144	Alycia Parks🟨 WARM	Total Games	21.5	24.35	+13.2%	MORE	LOW	Viktorija Golubic	clay	—	0.5x
145	Jasmine Paolini🧊 COLD	Total Games	21.5	24.20	+12.6%	MORE	LOW	Solana Sierra	clay	—	0.5x
146	Jasmine Paolini🧊 COLD	Break Points Won	5.0	4.39	+12.2%	LESS	LOW	Solana Sierra	clay	—	1.0x
147	Magdalena Frech	Total Games	21.5	24.08	+12.0%	MORE	LOW	Jil Teichmann	clay	—	0.5x
148	Elise Mertens	Total Games	21.0	23.27	+10.8%	MORE	LOW	Maja Chwalinska	clay	—	0.5x
149	Hailey Baptiste🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	4.5	4.93	+9.5%	MORE	LOW	Xiyu Wang	clay	—	1.0x
150	Jil Teichmann🧊 COLD	Break Points Won	4.5	4.92	+9.3%	MORE	LOW	Magdalena Frech	clay	—	1.0x
151	Magdalena Frech	Break Points Won	5.0	4.54	+9.2%	LESS	LOW	Jil Teichmann	clay	—	1.0x
152	Claire Liu🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	11.5	10.52	+8.6%	LESS	LOW	Maria Sakkari	clay	—	0.5x
153	Viktorija Golubic	Break Points Won	4.5	4.88	+8.5%	MORE	LOW	Alycia Parks	clay	—	1.0x
154	Xiyu Wang🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	11.5	10.53	+8.4%	LESS	LOW	Hailey Baptiste	clay	—	0.5x
155	Jannik Sinner🟨 WARM	Aces	5.5	5.95	+8.2%	MORE	LOW	Clement Tabur	clay	—	0.5x
156	Elise Mertens	Total Games	21.5	23.27	+8.2%	MORE	LOW	Maja Chwalinska	clay	—	0.5x
157	Jessica Pegula🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	5.0	5.39	+7.8%	MORE	LOW	Kimberly Birrell	clay	—	1.0x
158	Jannik Sinner🟨 WARM	Total Games	25.0	23.24	+7.0%	LESS	LOW	Clement Tabur	clay	—	0.5x
159	McCartney Kessler⏳ RTRN	Total Games Won	9.0	9.57	+6.3%	MORE	LOW	Diana Shnaider	clay	—	0.5x
160	Marie Bouzkova🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	5.0	4.71	+5.9%	LESS	LOW	Francesca Jones	clay	—	1.0x
161	Thanasi Kokkinakis⏳ RTRN	Break Points Won	3.5	3.32	+5.2%	LESS	LOW	Pablo Carreno Busta	clay	—	1.0x
162	Hamad Medjedovic⏳ RTRN	Break Points Won	3.5	3.33	+5.0%	LESS	LOW	Casper Ruud	clay	—	1.0x
163	Mirra Andreeva🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	5.5	5.23	+4.9%	LESS	LOW	Marina Bassols Ribera	clay	—	1.0x
164	James Duckworth⏳ RTRN	Total Games Won	10.5	10.01	+4.6%	LESS	LOW	Rafael Jodar	clay	—	0.5x
165	Solana Sierra🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	11.5	11.12	+3.3%	LESS	LOW	Jasmine Paolini	clay	—	0.5x
166	Maja Chwalinska⏳ RTRN	Total Games Won	11.5	11.82	+2.8%	MORE	LOW	Elise Mertens	clay	—	0.5x
167	Peyton Stearns	Break Points Won	5.0	5.14	+2.7%	MORE	LOW	Daria Snigur	clay	—	1.0x
168	Nishesh Basavareddy🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	3.5	3.58	+2.2%	MORE	LOW	Alex Michelsen	clay	—	1.0x
169	Karolina Muchova⏳ RTRN	Break Points Won	5.0	5.09	+1.7%	MORE	LOW	Kamilla Rakhimova	clay	—	1.0x
170	Donna Vekic🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	10.5	10.65	+1.5%	MORE	LOW	Naomi Osaka	clay	—	0.5x
171	Elina Svitolina	Break Points Won	5.0	5.04	+0.8%	MORE	LOW	Kaitlin Quevedo	clay	—	1.0x
172	Sorana Cirstea🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	5.0	5.01	+0.2%	MORE	LOW	Eva Lys	clay	—	1.0x

Kalshi tennis — 4 picks · $8.00 staked

Day 1 - paper only, grade EOD before scaling · locked 2026-05-26T13:10:40.605093+00:00

#	Match	Pick	Our P	Ask	Edge	Tier	Surface	Stake	Status	P&L
1	Caty McNally vs Belinda Bencic	Caty McNally	59.3%	26¢	33.3pp	ELITE	clay	$2.00	OPEN	+0.00
2	Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu	Yibing Wu	53.2%	29¢	24.2pp	ELITE	hard	$2.00	OPEN	+0.00
3	Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang	Xiyu Wang	56.4%	34¢	22.4pp	ELITE	hard	$2.00	OPEN	+0.00
4	Xinyu Wang vs Tamara Korpatsch	Xinyu Wang	57.6%	53¢	4.6pp	STRONG	hard	$2.00	OPEN	+0.00

PrizePicks tennis — 1 picks · $1.00 staked

Day 1 - paper only, grade EOD before scaling · locked 2026-05-26T13:10:40.546100+00:00

#	Player	Stat	Line	Our proj	Side	Edge	Tier	Surface	Stake	Status	P&L
1	Xiyu Wang	Total Games Won	11.5	10.53	LESS	8.4%	MED	clay	$1.00	OPEN	+0.00

Polymarket = retail/crypto sentiment. We can't bet there from CA, but the divergence vs Kalshi (sharp) reveals where the public is loading up. Generated 2026-05-26T10:40:56 · flagged threshold = ±3.0pp · 2 flagged futures / 0 flagged matches.

Grand-slam futures · ANY 2026 Slam (Kalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM vs Polymarket per-slam aggregate)

Polymarket "any-slam" probability computed naively as 1 - product(1 - p_slam). Positive divergence = public (Polymarket) more bullish than sharp (Kalshi). Sorted by |divergence|.

Player	Sharp (Kalshi)	Public (Poly)	Δ	Poly per-slam
Novak Djokovic · exact	11.5%	20.0%	+8.5pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Fre 6%, Wim 10%, US 6%
Daniil Medvedev · exact	10.0%	5.4%	-4.6pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 0%, Wim 2%, US 3%
Karen Khachanov · exact	3.0%	0.8%	-2.2pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 0%, Wim 1%
Lorenzo Musetti · exact	4.0%	1.9%	-2.1pp · SHARP HIGHER	Wim 1%, US 1%
Felix Auger-Aliassime · exact	2.5%	0.6%	-1.9pp · SHARP HIGHER	Wim 1%
Alexander Bublik · exact	3.0%	1.5%	-1.5pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 0%, Wim 0%, US 1%
Casper Ruud · exact	4.0%	2.5%	-1.5pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 2%, Wim 0%
Jannik Sinner · exact	94.5%	95.5%	+1.0pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Fre 72%, Wim 65%, US 53%
Taylor Fritz · exact	5.0%	4.2%	-0.8pp · SHARP HIGHER	Wim 3%, US 1%
Alexander Zverev · exact	15.5%	14.7%	-0.8pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 8%, Wim 4%, US 3%
Ben Shelton · exact	4.5%	5.3%	+0.8pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Fre 1%, Wim 3%, US 2%
Alex de Minaur · exact	2.0%	1.2%	-0.8pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 0%, Wim 1%
Frances Tiafoe · exact	0.5%	0.9%	+0.4pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Fre 0%, Wim 0%, US 1%
Jack Draper · exact	5.0%	5.0%	+0.0pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Wim 3%, US 2%

Per-match overlaps

No active per-match overlaps right now (Polymarket tennis volume concentrates in Grand Slam futures).

Per-stat-type MAE (n_graded=18)

Bar width = MAE (lower = better). "INSUFFICIENT" = need more graded picks.

Total Games

n=4

Ours

Us 6.45
PP 3.25
INSUFFICIENT_N

Total Games Won

n=13

Ours

Us 5.11
PP 4.96
NULL

Total Tie Breaks

n=1

Ours

Us 0.25
PP 0.50
INSUFFICIENT_N

Per-tier MAE

Bar width = MAE (lower = better). "INSUFFICIENT" = need more graded picks.

ELITE

n=16

Ours

Us 4.94
PP 3.75
NULL

MED

n=0

Ours

Us —
PP —
INSUFFICIENT_N

STRONG

n=2

Ours

Us 6.75
PP 9.00
INSUFFICIENT_N

[!]

No AAR available yet.
Expected: ~/.claude/projects/.../memory/aar_tennis_<date>.md

#	Player	Stat	Opp	Open	Latest	Diff	Abs	Direction
1	Madison Keys	Total Games Won	Hanne Vandewinkel	13.5	12.5	-1.00	1.00	DOWN
2	Jannik Sinner	Aces	Clement Tabur	6.5	5.5	-1.00	1.00	DOWN
3	Rafael Jodar	Total Games	James Duckworth	30.0	29.0	-1.00	1.00	DOWN
4	Frances Tiafoe	Total Games Won	Hubert Hurkacz	20.5	19.5	-1.00	1.00	DOWN
5	Daria Snigur	Total Games Won	Peyton Stearns	10.5	11.5	+1.00	1.00	UP
6	Joao Fonseca	Total Games	Dino Prizmic	37.0	38.0	+1.00	1.00	UP
7	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	Total Games Won	Thiago Agustin Tirante	20.5	19.5	-1.00	1.00	DOWN
8	Thiago Agustin Tirante	Total Games Won	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	20.5	19.5	-1.00	1.00	DOWN
9	Ben Shelton	Total Games	Raphael Collignon	40.5	39.5	-1.00	1.00	DOWN
10	Andrey Rublev	Total Games	Camilo Ugo Carabelli	37.5	36.5	-1.00	1.00	DOWN
11	Tommy Paul	Total Games	Lorenzo Sonego	32.5	33.5	+1.00	1.00	UP
12	Flavio Cobolli	Total Games	Yibing Wu	37.5	36.5	-1.00	1.00	DOWN
13	Peyton Stearns	Total Games	Daria Snigur	21.5	20.5	-1.00	1.00	DOWN
14	Sorana Cirstea	Total Games	Eva Lys	19.5	20.5	+1.00	1.00	UP
15	Lorenzo Sonego	Total Games Won	Tommy Paul	12.5	13.5	+1.00	1.00	UP
16	Stefanos Tsitsipas	Total Games	Matteo Arnaldi	38.5	37.5	-1.00	1.00	DOWN
17	Stefanos Tsitsipas	Total Games Won	Matteo Arnaldi	20.5	19.5	-1.00	1.00	DOWN
18	Elina Svitolina	Total Games	Kaitlin Quevedo	17.5	18.0	+0.50	0.50	UP

ATP top 50

Rk	Player	Country	Pts	ELO overall	ELO clay	ELO grass	ELO hard
1	Jannik Sinner	ITA	14750	2175	1857	1695	2062
2	Carlos Alcaraz	ESP	11960	2070	1867	1717	1956
3	Alexander Zverev	GER	5705	1961	1816	1594	1863
4	Novak Djokovic	SRB	4460	1955	1738	1636	1846
5	Ben Shelton	USA	4070	1848	1683	1561	1765
6	Felix Auger Aliassime	CAN	4050	1864	1605	1517	1803
7	Alex De Minaur	AUS	3855	1847	1652	1590	1806
8	Daniil Medvedev	RUS	3760	1878	1641	1585	1845
9	Taylor Fritz	USA	3720	1826	1581	1722	1749
10	Alexander Bublik	KAZ	3320	1803	1724	1569	1703
11	Lorenzo Musetti	ITA	3115	1828	1756	1607	1723
12	Jiri Lehecka	CZE	2665	1837	1647	1574	1754
13	Andrey Rublev	RUS	2460	1762	1658	1516	1683
14	Flavio Cobolli	ITA	2340	1796	1720	1557	1655
15	Karen Khachanov	RUS	2320	1691	1586	1567	1639
16	Casper Ruud	NOR	2275	1792	1744	1502	1685
17	Luciano Darderi	ITA	2260	1714	1767	1466	1466
18	Learner Tien	USA	2180	1800	1466	1506	1789
19	Valentin Vacherot	MON	2103	1810	1702	1467	1738
20	Arthur Fils	FRA	2040	1912	1762	1546	1771
21	Tommy Paul	USA	1945	1842	1748	1587	1743
22	Frances Tiafoe	USA	1905	1771	1604	1488	1719
23	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	ESP	1860	1756	1572	1545	1703
24	Cameron Norrie	GBR	1785	1776	1658	1529	1682
25	Arthur Rinderknech	FRA	1736	1713	1566	1530	1631
26	Francisco Cerundolo	ARG	1570	1801	1726	1426	1698
27	Jakub Mensik	CZE	1550	1795	1589	1497	1747
28	Tomas Martin Etcheverry	ARG	1510	1785	1693	1456	1636
29	Rafael Jodar	ESP	1461	1874	1714	—	1765
30	Joao Fonseca	BRA	1435	1818	1638	1495	1795
31	Ignacio Buse	PER	1412	1709	1693	1482	1562
32	Ugo Humbert	FRA	1370	1712	1451	1517	1697
33	Tallon Griekspoor	NED	1340	1681	1575	1564	1645
34	Corentin Moutet	FRA	1323	1706	1600	1574	1640
35	Brandon Nakashima	USA	1295	1706	1570	1590	1660
36	Alejandro Tabilo	CHI	1278	1786	1696	1575	1637
37	Alexander Blockx	BEL	1238	1820	1689	1508	1713
38	Mariano Navone	ARG	1215	1718	1716	1460	1507
39	Denis Shapovalov	CAN	1170	1690	1498	1472	1698
40	Zizou Bergs	BEL	1150	1705	1570	1521	1631
41	Jaume Munar	ESP	1145	1695	1563	1508	1635
42	Alex Michelsen	USA	1115	1715	1488	1538	1702
43	Tomas Machac	CZE	1080	1737	1592	1500	1682
44	Holger Rune	DEN	1060	1744	1663	1515	1710
45	Adrian Mannarino	FRA	1037	1589	1390	1584	1569
46	Marin Cilic	CRO	1010	1710	1539	1611	1635
47	Sebastian Korda	USA	1000	1806	1537	1556	1757
48	Miomir Kecmanovic	SRB	980	1607	1483	1500	1595
49	Gabriel Diallo	CAN	975	1651	1554	1576	1615
50	Ethan Quinn	USA	974	1731	1594	1509	1683

WTA top 50

Rk	Player	Country	Pts	ELO overall	ELO clay	ELO grass	ELO hard
1	Aryna Sabalenka	BLR	9960	2115	1808	1588	2045
2	Elena Rybakina	KAZ	8313	2063	1760	1580	1972
3	Iga Swiatek	POL	7273	1924	1780	1658	1852
4	Coco Gauff	USA	6749	1957	1787	1519	1871
5	Jessica Pegula	USA	6286	1997	1701	1583	1901
6	Amanda Anisimova	USA	5958	1916	1561	1638	1822
7	Elina Svitolina	UKR	4315	1922	1727	1550	1824
8	Mirra Andreeva	RUS	4181	1932	1800	1513	1797
9	Victoria Mboko	CAN	3710	1936	1704	1515	1891
10	Karolina Muchova	CZE	3318	1951	1597	1494	1869
11	Belinda Bencic	SUI	3145	1898	1584	1561	1831
12	Linda Noskova	CZE	3054	1881	1589	1583	1763
13	Jasmine Paolini	ITA	2787	1815	1707	1585	1741
14	Ekaterina Alexandrova	RUS	2679	1747	1593	1584	1662
15	Marta Kostyuk	UKR	2387	1924	1757	1449	1755
16	Naomi Osaka	JPN	2341	1819	1628	1514	1734
17	Iva Jovic	USA	2306	1829	1663	1601	1759
18	Sorana Cirstea	ROU	1985	1866	1612	1429	1797
19	Madison Keys	USA	1962	1836	1706	1558	1766
20	Clara Tauson	DEN	1920	1746	1560	1520	1679
21	Elise Mertens	BEL	1858	1802	1580	1581	1714
22	Leylah Fernandez	CAN	1844	1790	1590	1546	1679
23	Diana Shnaider	RUS	1796	1782	1647	1565	1686
24	Anna Kalinskaya	RUS	1792	1784	1538	1546	1721
25	Emma Navarro	USA	1719	1680	1578	1590	1613
26	Hailey Baptiste	USA	1683	1785	1662	1488	1667
27	Liudmila Samsonova	RUS	1635	1697	1604	1619	1566
28	Marie Bouzkova	CZE	1631	1773	1699	1476	1648
29	Ann Li	USA	1601	1745	1638	1478	1647
30	Anastasia Potapova	RUS	1470	1787	1690	1484	1640
31	Jelena Ostapenko	LAT	1464	1723	1632	1534	1621
32	Jaqueline Cristian	ROU	1414	1770	1635	1432	1698
33	Cristina Bucsa	ESP	1406	1738	1475	1514	1684
34	Xin Yu Wang	CHN	1371	1735	1546	1591	1616
35	Sara Bejlek	CZE	1369	1832	1797	1486	1653
36	Katerina Siniakova	CZE	1362	1777	1549	1578	1693
37	Alexandra Eala	PHI	1340	1786	1478	1600	1748
38	Elisabetta Cocciaretto	ITA	1320	1800	1584	1577	1689
39	Emma Raducanu	GBR	1301	1753	1570	1577	1658
40	Janice Tjen	INA	1292	1817	1662	—	1785
41	Barbora Krejcikova	CZE	1271	1715	1480	1606	1647
42	Tereza Valentova	CZE	1265	1845	1746	1517	1788
43	Lois Boisson	FRA	1264	1791	1811	1483	1554
44	Marketa Vondrousova	CZE	1263	1728	1606	1578	1609
45	Dayana Yastremska	UKR	1246	1695	1588	1575	1594
46	Magdalena Frech	POL	1238	1649	1534	1434	1613
47	Laura Siegemund	GER	1230	1680	1535	1541	1592
48	Mccartney Kessler	USA	1229	1754	1516	1583	1688
49	Maria Sakkari	GRE	1208	1707	1563	1486	1658
50	Jessica Bouzas Maneiro	ESP	1200	1658	1643	1524	1578

Source	DB / file	Last pulled	Age	Rows	Status
Kalshi KXATPMATCH	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-26T17:38:33.197431+00:00	2m	1842	fresh
Kalshi KXWTAMATCH	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-26T17:38:33.197431+00:00	2m	1696	fresh
Kalshi KXFRENCHOPEN	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-26T17:38:33.197431+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXFOPENMENSINGLE	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-26T17:38:33.197431+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-26T17:38:33.197431+00:00	2m	14	fresh
Kalshi KXUSOPEN	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-26T17:38:33.197431+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATPSETWINNER	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-26T17:38:33.197431+00:00	2m	3764	fresh
Kalshi KXATPTOTALSETS	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-26T17:38:33.197431+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATPSETSWEEP	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-26T17:38:33.197431+00:00	2m	1	fresh
Kalshi KXATPGAMESPREAD	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-26T17:38:33.197431+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATPEXACTMATCH	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-26T17:38:33.197431+00:00	2m	1642	fresh
Kalshi KXWTADOUBLES	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-26T17:38:33.197431+00:00	2m	66	fresh
Kalshi KXATP1RANK	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-26T17:38:33.197431+00:00	2m	16	fresh
elo last computed	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-26T17:38:30+00:00	2m	20051	fresh
rankings last pulled	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-26T17:38:32+00:00	2m	7538	fresh
rankings atp latest date	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-25	41.68h	—	stale
rankings wta latest date	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-25	41.68h	—	stale
mirror atp schedule	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-26T17:40:09.557079+00:00	0m	142	fresh
h2h last computed	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-17T10:11:57.514615+00:00	223.48h	—	stale
h2h n pairs	tennis.sqlite	190184	missing	—	missing
last player db run	tennis.sqlite	1779817226	missing	—	missing
results last_run	tennis_results.sqlite	[2026-05-26T17:40:12.026821+00:00] 2026-05-26T17:40:09.885465+00:00; dates=['20260525']; rows=662; resolved=634	missing	—	missing
pp_edges CSV	pp_edges_tennis_2026-05-26.csv	2026-05-26T17:40:41.605264+00:00	0m	—	fresh
kalshi edges JSON	tennis_kalshi_edges_2026-05-26.json	2026-05-26T17:40:35.933372+00:00	0m	—	fresh
paper trades PP	paper_trades_pp_tennis_2026-05-26.json	2026-05-26T17:40:43.806788+00:00	0m	—	fresh
paper trades Kalshi	paper_trades_kalshi_tennis_2026-05-26.json	2026-05-26T17:40:44.262473+00:00	0m	—	fresh
daily payload	daily_tennis_2026-05-26.json	2026-05-26T17:40:44.924097+00:00	0m	—	fresh
PP movement	pp_line_movement_tennis_2026-05-26.csv	2026-05-26T17:40:44.458137+00:00	0m	—	fresh
PP calibration	pp_calibration_tennis.json	2026-05-26T17:40:44.375044+00:00	0m	—	fresh