Kalshi KXATPMATCH 2m · 1810rKalshi KXWTAMATCH 2m · 1672rKalshi KXFRENCHOPEN 2mKalshi KXFOPENMENSINGLE 2mKalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM 2m · 14rKalshi KXUSOPEN 2mKalshi KXATPSETWINNER 2m · 3706rKalshi KXATPTOTALSETS 2mKalshi KXATPSETSWEEP 2m · 1rKalshi KXATPGAMESPREAD 2mKalshi KXATPEXACTMATCH 2m · 1684rKalshi KXWTADOUBLES 2m · 80rKalshi KXATP1RANK 2m · 16relo last computed 3.1h · 20051rrankings last pulled 3.1h · 7538rrankings atp latest date 2drankings wta latest date 2dmirror atp schedule 0m · 114rh2h last computed 10dh2h n pairs missinglast player db run missingresults last_run missingpp_edges CSV 0mkalshi edges JSON 0mpaper trades PP 3.0hpaper trades Kalshi 54mdaily payload 0mPP movement 0mPP calibration 3.0h
Matches today
30
scheduled
ELITE edges
1
across Kalshi + PP
STRONG edges
0
tier 2
MED edges
0
tier 3
Paper locks
3
Kalshi + PP
Real Money YTD
-$10.00
paper-gate restored
Qualifying skipped
0
filtered out today
Last refresh
16:12
2026-05-27 UTC
🏆 Best Bet (main-draw)
No main-draw Kalshi pick survived qualifying filter today.
🎯 Safest (P ≥ 65%)
Andrey Rublev
72%
Heavy main-draw favorite · PAPER
Edge -20.9pp
Ask 93¢
Ask 93¢
💎 Biggest Payout (ELITE)
No ELITE main-draw longshot today.
| # | Match | Tournament | Round | Surface | Start | ELO A | ELO B | ELO diff | Kalshi event |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik | Roland Garros | Round 2 | clay | May 27 11:30 | 1716 | 1589 | +128 | KXATPMATCH-26MAY27NAVMEN |
| 2 | Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik | Roland Garros | Round 2 | clay | May 27 11:30 | 1716 | 1589 | +128 | KXATPMATCH-26MAY27NAVMEN |
| 3 | Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic | Roland Garros | Round 2 | clay | May 27 13:50 | 1682 | 1738 | -56 | KXATPMATCH-26MAY27ROYDJO |
| 4 | Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic | Roland Garros | Round 2 | clay | May 27 13:50 | 1682 | 1738 | -56 | KXATPMATCH-26MAY27ROYDJO |
| 5 | James Duckworth vs Rafael Jodar | Roland Garros | Round 2 | clay | May 27 14:15 | 1641 | 1714 | -73 | KXATPMATCH-26MAY27DUCJOD |
| 6 | James Duckworth vs Rafael Jodar | Roland Garros | Round 2 | clay | May 27 14:15 | 1641 | 1714 | -73 | KXATPMATCH-26MAY27DUCJOD |
| 7 | Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen | Roland Garros | Round 2 | clay | May 27 14:35 | 1589 | 1488 | +100 | KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY27BASMIC-2 |
| 8 | Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys | Roland Garros | Round 2 | clay | May 27 14:35 | 1451 | 1533 | -82 | KXATPMATCH-26MAY27HUMHAL |
| 9 | Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen | Roland Garros | Round 2 | clay | May 27 14:35 | 1589 | 1488 | +100 | KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY27BASMIC-2 |
| 10 | Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys | Roland Garros | Round 2 | clay | May 27 14:35 | 1451 | 1533 | -82 | KXATPMATCH-26MAY27HUMHAL |
| 11 | Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic | Roland Garros | Round 2 | clay | May 27 15:45 | 1638 | 1752 | -114 | KXATPMATCH-26MAY27FONPRI |
| 12 | Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic | Roland Garros | Round 2 | clay | May 27 15:45 | 1638 | 1752 | -114 | KXATPMATCH-26MAY27FONPRI |
| 13 | Jil Teichmann vs Magdalena Frech | Roland Garros | Round 2 | clay | May 27 16:05 | 1645 | 1534 | +111 | KXWTAMATCH-26MAY27TEIFRE |
| 14 | Jil Teichmann vs Magdalena Frech | Roland Garros | Round 2 | clay | May 27 16:05 | 1645 | 1534 | +111 | KXWTAMATCH-26MAY27TEIFRE |
| 15 | Jasmine Paolini vs Solana Sierra | Roland Garros | Round 2 | clay | May 27 16:15 | 1707 | 1796 | -89 | KXWTAMATCH-26MAY27PAOSIE |
| 16 | Jasmine Paolini vs Solana Sierra | Roland Garros | Round 2 | clay | May 27 16:15 | 1707 | 1796 | -89 | KXWTAMATCH-26MAY27PAOSIE |
| 17 | Kamilla Rakhimova vs Karolina Muchova | Roland Garros | Round 2 | clay | May 27 16:30 | 1551 | 1597 | -46 | KXWTAMATCH-26MAY27RAKMUC |
| 18 | Hailey Baptiste vs ? | Roland Garros | Round 2 | clay | May 27 16:30 | 1662 | — | — | |
| 19 | Lorenzo Sonego vs Tommy Paul | Roland Garros | Round 2 | clay | May 27 16:30 | 1465 | 1748 | -283 | KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY27SONPAU-3 |
| 20 | Kamilla Rakhimova vs Karolina Muchova | Roland Garros | Round 2 | clay | May 27 16:30 | 1551 | 1597 | -46 | KXWTAMATCH-26MAY27RAKMUC |
| 21 | Hailey Baptiste vs ? | Roland Garros | Round 2 | clay | May 27 16:30 | 1662 | — | — | |
| 22 | Lorenzo Sonego vs Tommy Paul | Roland Garros | Round 2 | clay | May 27 16:30 | 1465 | 1748 | -283 | KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY27SONPAU-3 |
| 23 | Eva Lys vs Sorana Cirstea | Roland Garros | Round 2 | clay | May 27 16:45 | 1589 | 1612 | -23 | KXWTAMATCH-26MAY27LYSCIR |
| 24 | Eva Lys vs Sorana Cirstea | Roland Garros | Round 2 | clay | May 27 16:45 | 1589 | 1612 | -23 | KXWTAMATCH-26MAY27LYSCIR |
| 25 | Mirra Andreeva vs Marina Bassols Ribera | Roland Garros | Round 2 | clay | May 27 17:00 | 1800 | 1681 | +119 | KXWTAMATCH-26MAY27ANDBAS |
| 26 | Casper Ruud vs Hamad Medjedovic | Roland Garros | Round 2 | clay | May 27 17:00 | 1744 | 1688 | +56 | KXATPMATCH-26MAY27RUUMED |
| 27 | Mirra Andreeva vs Marina Bassols Ribera | Roland Garros | Round 2 | clay | May 27 17:00 | 1800 | 1681 | +119 | KXWTAMATCH-26MAY27ANDBAS |
| 28 | Casper Ruud vs Hamad Medjedovic | Roland Garros | Round 2 | clay | May 27 17:00 | 1744 | 1688 | +56 | KXATPMATCH-26MAY27RUUMED |
| 29 | Tomas Machac vs Alexander Zverev | Roland Garros | Round 2 | clay | May 27 18:15 | 1592 | 1816 | -224 | KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY27MACZVE-2 |
| 30 | Tomas Machac vs Alexander Zverev | Roland Garros | Round 2 | clay | May 27 18:15 | 1592 | 1816 | -224 | KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY27MACZVE-2 |
| # | Match | Our pick | Our P | Mkt P | Ask | Edge | Tier | Decision | Vol 24h | Surface | Round | EV/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Anisimova vs Julia Grabher | Julia Grabher | 63.8% | 18.0% | 18¢ | +45.8pp | LOW | PAPER | 1496 | clay | Round 2 | +0.458 |
| 2 | Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic | Valentin Royer | 46.1% | 5.0% | 5¢ | +41.1pp | LOW | PAPER | 1401123 | clay | Round 2 | +0.411 |
| 3 | Learner Tien vs Facundo Diaz Acosta | Facundo Diaz Acosta | 67.5% | 27.0% | 27¢ | +40.5pp | LOW | PAPER | 15979 | clay | Round 2 | +0.405 |
| 4 | Elina Svitolina vs Tamara Korpatsch | Tamara Korpatsch | 48.6% | 9.0% | 9¢ | +39.6pp | LOW | PAPER | 491 | clay | Round 3 | +0.396 |
| 5 | Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen | Nishesh Basavareddy | 47.6% | 8.0% | 8¢ | +39.6pp | LOW | PAPER | 516183 | hard | Round Of 64 | +0.396 |
| 6 | Pablo Carreno Busta vs Thiago Agustin Tirante | Thiago Agustin Tirante | 55.5% | 93.0% | 93¢ | -37.5pp | LOW | PAPER | 0 | clay | Round 3 | -0.375 |
| 7 | Hugo Gaston vs Francisco Cerundolo | Hugo Gaston | 48.1% | 12.0% | 12¢ | +36.1pp | LOW | PAPER | 11423 | hard | Round Of 64 | +0.361 |
| 8 | James Duckworth vs Rafael Jodar | James Duckworth | 44.3% | 11.0% | 11¢ | +33.3pp | LOW | PAPER | 1065306 | clay | Round 2 | +0.333 |
| 9 | Jakub Mensik vs Mariano Navone | Mariano Navone | 59.6% | 28.0% | 28¢ | +31.6pp | LOW | PAPER | 4052824 | clay | Round 2 | +0.316 |
| 10 | Daria Kasatkina vs Susan Bandecchi | Susan Bandecchi | 44.5% | 13.0% | 13¢ | +31.6pp | LOW | PAPER | 576 | clay | Round 2 | +0.316 |
| 11 | Marina Bassols Ribera vs Mirra Andreeva | Marina Bassols Ribera | 40.5% | 9.0% | 9¢ | +31.5pp | LOW | PAPER | 90928 | clay | Round 2 | +0.315 |
| 12 | Kamilla Rakhimova vs Karolina Muchova | Kamilla Rakhimova | 42.4% | 11.0% | 11¢ | +31.4pp | LOW | PAPER | 10078 | clay | Round 2 | +0.314 |
| 13 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo vs Moise Kouame | Moise Kouame | 58.4% | 28.0% | 28¢ | +30.3pp | LOW | PAPER | 15644 | hard | Round Of 64 | +0.303 |
| 14 | Elise Mertens vs Maja Chwalinska | Maja Chwalinska | 64.0% | 35.0% | 35¢ | +29.0pp | LOW | PAPER | 1286 | clay | Round 2 | +0.290 |
| 15 | Elsa Jacquemot vs Aryna Sabalenka | Elsa Jacquemot | 30.2% | 3.0% | 3¢ | +27.2pp | LOW | SKIP | 6644 | clay | Round 2 | +0.272 |
| 16 | Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu | Yibing Wu | 53.4% | 27.0% | 27¢ | +26.4pp | LOW | PAPER | 6569 | hard | Round Of 64 | +0.264 |
| 17 | Iga Swiatek vs Magda Linette | Magda Linette | 36.3% | 10.0% | 10¢ | +26.3pp | LOW | PAPER | 386 | clay | Round 3 | +0.263 |
| 18 | Viktorija Golubic vs Marta Kostyuk | Marta Kostyuk | 66.4% | 92.0% | 92¢ | -25.6pp | LOW | PAPER | 0 | clay | Round 3 | -0.256 |
| 19 | Naomi Osaka vs Donna Vekic | Donna Vekic | 52.5% | 27.0% | 27¢ | +25.5pp | LOW | PAPER | 3379 | clay | Round 2 | +0.255 |
| 20 | Karen Khachanov vs Jesper De Jong | Jesper De Jong | 58.2% | 33.0% | 33¢ | +25.2pp | LOW | PAPER | 426 | clay | Round 3 | +0.252 |
| 21 | Peyton Stearns vs Belinda Bencic | Peyton Stearns | 54.2% | 29.0% | 29¢ | +25.2pp | LOW | PAPER | 65 | clay | Round 3 | +0.252 |
| 22 | Luciano Darderi vs Francisco Comesana | Francisco Comesana | 52.2% | 28.0% | 28¢ | +24.2pp | LOW | PAPER | 3437 | hard | Round Of 64 | +0.242 |
| 23 | Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang | Xiyu Wang | 56.4% | 33.0% | 33¢ | +23.4pp | LOW | PAPER | 118483 | hard | Round Of 64 | +0.234 |
| 24 | Jasmine Paolini vs Solana Sierra | Solana Sierra | 60.3% | 37.0% | 37¢ | +23.3pp | LOW | PAPER | 54139 | clay | Round 2 | +0.233 |
| 25 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Jannik Sinner | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 26.3% | 3.0% | 3¢ | +23.3pp | LOW | SKIP | 74516 | hard | Round Of 64 | +0.233 |
| 26 | Eva Lys vs Sorana Cirstea | Eva Lys | 44.2% | 21.0% | 21¢ | +23.2pp | LOW | PAPER | 15729 | clay | Round 2 | +0.232 |
| 27 | Alexander Zverev vs Tomas Machac | Tomas Machac | 34.9% | 12.0% | 12¢ | +22.9pp | LOW | PAPER | 279399 | hard | Round Of 64 | +0.229 |
| 28 | Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys | Ugo Humbert | 43.7% | 22.0% | 22¢ | +21.7pp | LOW | PAPER | 457020 | clay | Round 2 | +0.217 |
| 29 | Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev | Andrey Rublev | 72.1% | 93.0% | 93¢ | -20.9pp | LOW | PAPER | 0 | clay | Round 3 | -0.209 |
| 30 | Lorenzo Sonego vs Tommy Paul | Lorenzo Sonego | 36.6% | 16.0% | 16¢ | +20.6pp | LOW | PAPER | 31798 | hard | Round Of 64 | +0.206 |
| 31 | Valentin Vacherot vs Alejandro Tabilo | Valentin Vacherot | 57.6% | 37.0% | 37¢ | +20.6pp | LOW | PAPER | 9576 | hard | Round Of 64 | +0.206 |
| 32 | Antonia Ruzic vs Madison Keys | Antonia Ruzic | 35.1% | 15.0% | 15¢ | +20.1pp | LOW | PAPER | 3381 | clay | Round 2 | +0.201 |
| 33 | Anastasia Potapova vs Katie Boulter | Katie Boulter | 40.9% | 21.0% | 21¢ | +19.9pp | LOW | PAPER | 2653 | clay | Round 2 | +0.199 |
| 34 | Ben Shelton vs Raphael Collignon | Raphael Collignon | 53.2% | 34.0% | 34¢ | +19.2pp | LOW | PAPER | 169787 | hard | Round Of 64 | +0.192 |
| 35 | Frances Tiafoe vs Hubert Hurkacz | Frances Tiafoe | 63.2% | 44.0% | 44¢ | +19.2pp | LOW | PAPER | 12783 | hard | Round Of 64 | +0.192 |
| 36 | Brandon Nakashima vs Luca Van Assche | Luca Van Assche | 50.8% | 32.0% | 32¢ | +18.8pp | LOW | PAPER | 1785 | clay | Round 2 | +0.188 |
| 37 | Maria Sakkari vs Claire Liu | Claire Liu | 54.0% | 36.0% | 36¢ | +18.0pp | LOW | PAPER | 1937 | clay | Round 2 | +0.180 |
| 38 | Diana Shnaider vs McCartney Kessler | McCartney Kessler | 40.0% | 23.0% | 23¢ | +16.9pp | LOW | PAPER | 2374 | clay | Round 2 | +0.170 |
| 39 | Casper Ruud vs Hamad Medjedovic | Hamad Medjedovic | 46.1% | 30.0% | 30¢ | +16.1pp | LOW | PAPER | 91390 | clay | Round 2 | +0.161 |
| 40 | Dino Prizmic vs Joao Fonseca | Dino Prizmic | 60.8% | 47.0% | 47¢ | +13.8pp | LOW | PAPER | 240149 | clay | Round 2 | +0.138 |
| 41 | Magdalena Frech vs Jil Teichmann | Jil Teichmann | 54.4% | 41.0% | 41¢ | +13.3pp | LOW | PAPER | 105895 | clay | Round 2 | +0.134 |
| 42 | Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva | Vit Kopriva | 61.0% | 48.0% | 48¢ | +13.0pp | LOW | PAPER | 13432 | clay | Round 2 | +0.130 |
| 43 | Anna Kalinskaya vs Alina Korneeva | Alina Korneeva | 40.5% | 29.0% | 29¢ | +11.5pp | LOW | PAPER | 1550 | clay | Round 2 | +0.115 |
| 44 | Katerina Siniakova vs Victoria Mboko | Katerina Siniakova | 38.0% | 29.0% | 29¢ | +9.0pp | LOW | PAPER | 1784 | clay | Round 2 | +0.090 |
| 45 | Arthur Rinderknech vs Matteo Berrettini | Matteo Berrettini | 58.2% | 50.0% | 50¢ | +8.2pp | LOW | PAPER | 6557 | clay | Round 2 | +0.082 |
| 46 | Diane Parry vs Ann Li | Diane Parry | 35.6% | 30.0% | 30¢ | +5.6pp | LOW | PAPER | 2925 | clay | Round 2 | +0.056 |
| 47 | Camila Osorio vs Yulia Putintseva | Yulia Putintseva | 48.0% | 43.0% | 43¢ | +5.0pp | LOW | PAPER | 2667 | clay | Round 2 | +0.051 |
| 48 | Iva Jovic vs Emma Navarro | Iva Jovic | 57.0% | 54.0% | 54¢ | +3.0pp | LOW | PAPER | 10891 | clay | Round 2 | +0.030 |
| 49 | Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Kimberly Birrell | Oleksandra Oliynykova | 71.7% | 69.0% | 69¢ | +2.7pp | LOW | PAPER | 3141 | clay | Round 2 | +0.027 |
| 50 | Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Matteo Arnaldi | Matteo Arnaldi | 41.4% | 39.0% | 39¢ | +2.4pp | LOW | PAPER | 2822 | hard | Round Of 64 | +0.024 |
| 51 | Jaime Faria vs Jan-Lennard Struff | Jan-Lennard Struff | 39.3% | 37.0% | 37¢ | +2.3pp | LOW | PAPER | 1114 | clay | Round 2 | +0.023 |
| 52 | Zachary Svajda vs Adam Walton | Zachary Svajda | 54.2% | 53.0% | 53¢ | +1.2pp | LOW | SKIP | 2971 | hard | Round Of 64 | +0.012 |
| 53 | Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 72.0% | 71.0% | 71¢ | +1.0pp | LOW | SKIP | 1545 | hard | Round Of 64 | +0.010 |
| # | Player | Stat | PP line | Our proj | Edge % | Side | Tier | Opp | Surface | Demon | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kamilla Rakhimova🧊 COLD | Aces | 0.5 | 2.79 | +458.1% | MORE | LOW | Karolina Muchova | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 2 | Marina Bassols Ribera🟨 WARM | Total Games Won | 5.0 | 9.63 | +92.7% | MORE | LOW | Mirra Andreeva | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 3 | Tamara Korpatsch🟨 WARM | Total Games Won | 5.5 | 10.38 | +88.8% | MORE | LOW | Elina Svitolina | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 4 | Elsa Jacquemot🧊 COLD | Total Games Won | 4.5 | 8.47 | +88.3% | MORE | LOW | Aryna Sabalenka | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 5 | Kamilla Rakhimova🧊 COLD | Break Points Won | 2.5 | 4.56 | +82.4% | MORE | LOW | Karolina Muchova | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 6 | Alexander Zverev🟨 WARM | Total Tie Breaks | 0.5 | 0.12 | +75.7% | LESS | LOW | Tomas Machac | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 7 | Luciano Darderi🟨 WARM | Total Tie Breaks | 0.5 | 0.12 | +75.5% | LESS | LOW | Francisco Comesana | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 8 | Felix Auger-Aliassime🟨 WARM | Total Tie Breaks | 0.5 | 0.12 | +75.3% | LESS | LOW | Roman Andres Burruchaga | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 9 | Martin Landaluce | Total Tie Breaks | 0.5 | 0.12 | +75.3% | LESS | LOW | Vit Kopriva | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 10 | Julia Grabher | Total Games Won | 7.5 | 11.80 | +57.4% | MORE | LOW | Amanda Anisimova | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 11 | Coco Gauff🟨 WARM | Break Points Won | 5.5 | 2.40 | +56.4% | LESS | ELITE | Maiar Sherif Ahmed Abdelaziz | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 12 | Learner Tien🧊 COLD | Total Games Won | 19.5 | 8.70 | +55.4% | LESS | LOW | Facundo Diaz Acosta | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 13 | Susan Bandecchi🟨 WARM | Total Games Won | 6.5 | 10.04 | +54.4% | MORE | LOW | Daria Kasatkina | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 14 | Arthur Rinderknech | Total Games Won | 20.5 | 9.76 | +52.4% | LESS | LOW | Matteo Berrettini | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 15 | Felix Auger-Aliassime🟨 WARM | Total Games Won | 19.5 | 9.34 | +52.1% | LESS | LOW | Roman Andres Burruchaga | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 16 | Martin Landaluce | Total Games Won | 19.5 | 9.51 | +51.2% | LESS | LOW | Vit Kopriva | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 17 | Karen Khachanov🧊 COLD | Total Games Won | 19.5 | 9.55 | +51.0% | LESS | LOW | Jesper De Jong | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 18 | Ben Shelton🟨 WARM | Total Games Won | 20.5 | 10.16 | +50.4% | LESS | LOW | Raphael Collignon | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 19 | Zachary Svajda🧊 COLD | Total Games Won | 19.5 | 9.71 | +50.2% | LESS | LOW | Adam Walton | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 20 | Jaime Faria🟨 WARM | Total Tie Breaks | 0.5 | 0.25 | +50.0% | LESS | LOW | Jan-Lennard Struff | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 21 | Frances Tiafoe⏳ RTRN | Total Games Won | 19.5 | 9.85 | +49.5% | LESS | LOW | Hubert Hurkacz | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 22 | Francisco Comesana🧊 COLD | Total Games Won | 17.5 | 8.85 | +49.5% | LESS | LOW | Luciano Darderi | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 23 | Jan-Lennard Struff🧊 COLD | Total Games Won | 18.5 | 9.37 | +49.4% | LESS | LOW | Jaime Faria | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 24 | Kamilla Rakhimova🧊 COLD | Total Games Won | 6.5 | 9.71 | +49.3% | MORE | LOW | Karolina Muchova | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 25 | Brandon Nakashima | Total Games Won | 20.5 | 10.43 | +49.1% | LESS | LOW | Luca Van Assche | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 26 | Matteo Arnaldi🟨 WARM | Total Games Won | 19.5 | 10.01 | +48.6% | LESS | LOW | Stefanos Tsitsipas | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 27 | Tommy Paul🟨 WARM | Aces | 4.0 | 5.91 | +47.7% | MORE | LOW | Lorenzo Sonego | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 28 | Adam Walton🧊 COLD | Total Games Won | 19.5 | 10.24 | +47.5% | LESS | LOW | Zachary Svajda | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 29 | Moise Kouame | Total Games Won | 16.5 | 8.70 | +47.2% | LESS | LOW | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 30 | Casper Ruud🟨 WARM | Total Games Won | 20.5 | 10.85 | +47.1% | LESS | LOW | Hamad Medjedovic | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 31 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | Total Games Won | 20.5 | 11.08 | +46.0% | LESS | LOW | Matteo Arnaldi | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 32 | Hubert Hurkacz🟨 WARM | Total Games Won | 20.5 | 11.13 | +45.7% | LESS | LOW | Frances Tiafoe | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 33 | Jaime Faria🟨 WARM | Total Games Won | 20.5 | 11.14 | +45.6% | LESS | LOW | Jan-Lennard Struff | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 34 | Hamad Medjedovic⏳ RTRN | Total Games Won | 18.5 | 10.09 | +45.5% | LESS | LOW | Casper Ruud | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 35 | Matteo Berrettini | Total Games Won | 20.5 | 11.26 | +45.1% | LESS | LOW | Arthur Rinderknech | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 36 | Flavio Cobolli🟨 WARM | Total Games Won | 20.5 | 11.26 | +45.1% | LESS | LOW | Yibing Wu | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 37 | Raphael Collignon⏳ RTRN | Total Games Won | 19.5 | 10.84 | +44.4% | LESS | LOW | Ben Shelton | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 38 | Yibing Wu🟨 WARM | Total Games Won | 17.5 | 9.74 | +44.4% | LESS | LOW | Flavio Cobolli | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 39 | Jannik Sinner🟨 WARM | Break Points Won | 6.5 | 3.64 | +43.9% | LESS | LOW | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 40 | Luca Van Assche | Total Games Won | 18.5 | 10.51 | +43.2% | LESS | LOW | Brandon Nakashima | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 41 | Luciano Darderi🟨 WARM | Total Games Won | 20.5 | 11.72 | +42.9% | LESS | LOW | Francisco Comesana | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 42 | Jesper De Jong | Total Games Won | 18.5 | 10.91 | +41.0% | LESS | LOW | Karen Khachanov | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 43 | Vit Kopriva🟨 WARM | Total Games Won | 19.5 | 11.52 | +40.9% | LESS | LOW | Martin Landaluce | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 44 | Xiyu Wang🟨 WARM | Break Points Won | 3.5 | 4.93 | +40.9% | MORE | LOW | Hailey Baptiste | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 45 | Mirra Andreeva🟨 WARM | Total Games | 17.0 | 23.90 | +40.6% | MORE | LOW | Marina Bassols Ribera | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 46 | Alexander Zverev🟨 WARM | Total Games Won | 19.5 | 11.84 | +39.3% | LESS | LOW | Tomas Machac | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 47 | Francisco Cerundolo🟨 WARM | Break Points Won | 6.0 | 3.67 | +38.8% | LESS | LOW | Hugo Gaston | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 48 | Matteo Berrettini | Total Games | 40.5 | 24.91 | +38.5% | LESS | LOW | Arthur Rinderknech | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 49 | Hubert Hurkacz🟨 WARM | Total Games | 40.5 | 25.12 | +38.0% | LESS | LOW | Frances Tiafoe | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 50 | Tommy Paul🟨 WARM | Total Games Won | 19.5 | 12.11 | +37.9% | LESS | LOW | Lorenzo Sonego | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 51 | Antonia Ruzic🧊 COLD | Total Games Won | 6.5 | 8.94 | +37.6% | MORE | LOW | Madison Keys | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 52 | Lorenzo Sonego🧊 COLD | Total Games Won | 13.5 | 8.44 | +37.5% | LESS | LOW | Tommy Paul | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 53 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo🟨 WARM | Total Games | 35.5 | 22.26 | +37.3% | LESS | LOW | Moise Kouame | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 54 | Tomas Machac | Total Games Won | 14.5 | 9.10 | +37.2% | LESS | LOW | Alexander Zverev | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 55 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo🟨 WARM | Total Games Won | 19.5 | 12.31 | +36.9% | LESS | LOW | Moise Kouame | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 56 | Roman Andres Burruchaga🟨 WARM | Total Games Won | 18.5 | 11.68 | +36.8% | LESS | LOW | Felix Auger-Aliassime | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 57 | Aryna Sabalenka🟨 WARM | Total Games | 16.5 | 22.55 | +36.6% | MORE | LOW | Elsa Jacquemot | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 58 | Hubert Hurkacz🟨 WARM | Total Games | 39.5 | 25.12 | +36.4% | LESS | LOW | Frances Tiafoe | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 59 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | Total Games | 39.5 | 25.13 | +36.4% | LESS | LOW | Matteo Arnaldi | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 60 | Ben Shelton🟨 WARM | Total Games | 39.5 | 25.16 | +36.3% | LESS | LOW | Raphael Collignon | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 61 | Ben Shelton🟨 WARM | Total Games | 39.0 | 25.16 | +35.5% | LESS | LOW | Raphael Collignon | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 62 | Adam Walton🧊 COLD | Total Games | 38.5 | 25.04 | +35.0% | LESS | LOW | Zachary Svajda | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 63 | Tomas Machac | Aces | 4.5 | 6.07 | +34.8% | MORE | LOW | Alexander Zverev | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 64 | Jaime Faria🟨 WARM | Total Games | 38.5 | 25.10 | +34.8% | LESS | LOW | Jan-Lennard Struff | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 65 | Luciano Darderi🟨 WARM | Total Games | 37.0 | 24.18 | +34.6% | LESS | LOW | Francisco Comesana | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 66 | Martin Landaluce | Total Games | 37.5 | 24.54 | +34.6% | LESS | LOW | Vit Kopriva | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 67 | Maja Chwalinska⏳ RTRN | Break Points Won | 4.0 | 5.34 | +33.6% | MORE | LOW | Elise Mertens | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 68 | Felix Auger-Aliassime🟨 WARM | Total Games | 36.5 | 24.29 | +33.4% | LESS | LOW | Roman Andres Burruchaga | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 69 | Karen Khachanov🧊 COLD | Total Games | 37.5 | 25.08 | +33.1% | LESS | LOW | Jesper De Jong | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 70 | Brandon Nakashima | Total Games | 37.5 | 25.13 | +33.0% | LESS | LOW | Luca Van Assche | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 71 | Casper Ruud🟨 WARM | Total Games | 37.5 | 25.18 | +32.9% | LESS | LOW | Hamad Medjedovic | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 72 | Hamad Medjedovic⏳ RTRN | Aces | 9.5 | 6.38 | +32.8% | LESS | LOW | Casper Ruud | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 73 | Tommy Paul🟨 WARM | Break Points Won | 5.5 | 3.71 | +32.6% | LESS | LOW | Lorenzo Sonego | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 74 | Flavio Cobolli🟨 WARM | Total Games | 37.0 | 24.97 | +32.5% | LESS | LOW | Yibing Wu | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 75 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo🟨 WARM | Break Points Won | 5.5 | 3.72 | +32.3% | LESS | LOW | Moise Kouame | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 76 | Karolina Muchova⏳ RTRN | Total Games | 18.5 | 24.44 | +32.1% | MORE | LOW | Kamilla Rakhimova | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 77 | Brandon Nakashima | Total Games | 37.0 | 25.13 | +32.1% | LESS | LOW | Luca Van Assche | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 78 | Learner Tien🧊 COLD | Total Games | 35.0 | 23.90 | +31.7% | LESS | LOW | Facundo Diaz Acosta | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 79 | Flavio Cobolli🟨 WARM | Total Games | 36.5 | 24.97 | +31.6% | LESS | LOW | Yibing Wu | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 80 | Daria Kasatkina🟨 WARM | Total Games | 18.5 | 24.33 | +31.5% | MORE | LOW | Susan Bandecchi | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 81 | Tommy Paul🟨 WARM | Total Games | 33.5 | 23.07 | +31.1% | LESS | LOW | Lorenzo Sonego | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 82 | Tommy Paul🟨 WARM | Total Sets | 3.5 | 2.42 | +30.9% | LESS | LOW | Lorenzo Sonego | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 83 | Alexander Zverev🟨 WARM | Total Sets | 3.5 | 2.43 | +30.5% | LESS | LOW | Tomas Machac | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 84 | Alexander Zverev🟨 WARM | Total Games | 34.0 | 23.78 | +30.1% | LESS | LOW | Tomas Machac | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 85 | Katie Boulter | Break Points Won | 3.5 | 4.51 | +29.0% | MORE | LOW | Anastasia Potapova | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 86 | Facundo Diaz Acosta⏳ RTRN | Total Games Won | 16.5 | 11.85 | +28.2% | LESS | LOW | Learner Tien | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 87 | Flavio Cobolli🟨 WARM | Break Points Won | 5.0 | 3.61 | +27.9% | LESS | LOW | Yibing Wu | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 88 | Alina Korneeva🧊 COLD | Break Points Won | 3.5 | 4.46 | +27.5% | MORE | LOW | Anna Kalinskaya | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 89 | Hugo Gaston | Total Games Won | 12.5 | 9.10 | +27.2% | LESS | LOW | Francisco Cerundolo | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 90 | Alexander Zverev🟨 WARM | Break Points Won | 5.0 | 3.67 | +26.6% | LESS | LOW | Tomas Machac | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 91 | Brandon Nakashima | Total Tie Breaks | 0.5 | 0.37 | +25.4% | LESS | LOW | Luca Van Assche | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 92 | Francisco Cerundolo🟨 WARM | Total Games | 31.5 | 23.78 | +24.5% | LESS | LOW | Hugo Gaston | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 93 | Madison Keys⏳ RTRN | Total Games | 19.0 | 23.63 | +24.4% | MORE | LOW | Antonia Ruzic | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 94 | Katerina Siniakova🟨 WARM | Break Points Won | 3.5 | 4.34 | +23.9% | MORE | LOW | Victoria Mboko | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 95 | Amanda Anisimova⏳ RTRN | Break Points Won | 5.5 | 4.19 | +23.8% | LESS | LOW | Julia Grabher | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 96 | Kimberly Birrell | Break Points Won | 4.5 | 3.48 | +22.7% | LESS | LOW | Oleksandra Oliynykova | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 97 | Diana Shnaider | Total Games | 19.5 | 23.83 | +22.2% | MORE | LOW | McCartney Kessler | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 98 | Sorana Cirstea🟨 WARM | Total Games | 20.0 | 24.44 | +22.2% | MORE | LOW | Eva Lys | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 99 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | Break Points Won | 4.5 | 3.55 | +21.2% | LESS | LOW | Matteo Arnaldi | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 100 | Naomi Osaka🟨 WARM | Break Points Won | 4.0 | 4.85 | +21.1% | MORE | LOW | Donna Vekic | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 101 | Jaime Faria🟨 WARM | Break Points Won | 4.5 | 3.58 | +20.4% | LESS | LOW | Jan-Lennard Struff | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 102 | Tomas Machac | Break Points Won | 2.5 | 3.00 | +19.9% | MORE | LOW | Alexander Zverev | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 103 | Diana Shnaider | Total Games | 20.0 | 23.83 | +19.1% | MORE | LOW | McCartney Kessler | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 104 | Amanda Anisimova⏳ RTRN | Total Games | 19.5 | 23.21 | +19.1% | MORE | LOW | Julia Grabher | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 105 | Diane Parry🧊 COLD | Break Points Won | 3.5 | 4.15 | +18.6% | MORE | LOW | Ann Li | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 106 | Anna Kalinskaya | Total Games | 20.5 | 24.30 | +18.5% | MORE | LOW | Alina Korneeva | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 107 | Kimberly Birrell | Total Games Won | 10.5 | 8.56 | +18.4% | LESS | LOW | Oleksandra Oliynykova | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 108 | Naomi Osaka🟨 WARM | Total Games Won | 12.5 | 10.31 | +17.6% | LESS | LOW | Donna Vekic | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 109 | Belinda Bencic🟨 WARM | Total Games | 21.0 | 24.47 | +16.6% | MORE | LOW | Peyton Stearns | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 110 | Ben Shelton🟨 WARM | Break Points Won | 4.0 | 3.34 | +16.4% | LESS | LOW | Raphael Collignon | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 111 | Elise Mertens | Break Points Won | 5.0 | 4.20 | +16.1% | LESS | LOW | Maja Chwalinska | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 112 | Hailey Baptiste🟨 WARM | Total Games Won | 12.5 | 10.50 | +16.0% | LESS | LOW | Xiyu Wang | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 113 | Anastasia Potapova🟨 WARM | Total Games | 20.5 | 23.75 | +15.9% | MORE | LOW | Katie Boulter | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 114 | Eva Lys🧊 COLD | Total Games Won | 8.5 | 9.83 | +15.6% | MORE | LOW | Sorana Cirstea | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 115 | Ann Li | Total Games | 20.5 | 23.57 | +15.0% | MORE | LOW | Diane Parry | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 116 | Iva Jovic🟨 WARM | Break Points Won | 4.5 | 5.16 | +14.7% | MORE | LOW | Emma Navarro | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 117 | Diane Parry🧊 COLD | Total Games Won | 10.5 | 8.97 | +14.5% | LESS | LOW | Ann Li | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 118 | Casper Ruud🟨 WARM | Aces | 7.5 | 6.43 | +14.3% | LESS | LOW | Hamad Medjedovic | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 119 | Daria Kasatkina🟨 WARM | Break Points Won | 6.0 | 5.15 | +14.2% | LESS | LOW | Susan Bandecchi | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 120 | Camila Osorio | Total Games | 21.5 | 24.48 | +13.9% | MORE | LOW | Yulia Putintseva | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 121 | Hailey Baptiste🟨 WARM | Total Games | 21.5 | 24.48 | +13.8% | MORE | LOW | Xiyu Wang | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 122 | Peyton Stearns | Total Games Won | 9.5 | 10.80 | +13.7% | MORE | LOW | Belinda Bencic | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 123 | Maria Sakkari🧊 COLD | Total Games | 21.5 | 24.42 | +13.6% | MORE | LOW | Claire Liu | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 124 | Naomi Osaka🟨 WARM | Total Games | 21.5 | 24.38 | +13.4% | MORE | LOW | Donna Vekic | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 125 | Katie Boulter | Total Games Won | 8.5 | 9.64 | +13.4% | MORE | LOW | Anastasia Potapova | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 126 | McCartney Kessler⏳ RTRN | Total Games Won | 8.5 | 9.57 | +12.6% | MORE | LOW | Diana Shnaider | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 127 | Jasmine Paolini🧊 COLD | Total Games | 21.5 | 24.20 | +12.6% | MORE | LOW | Solana Sierra | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 128 | Maja Chwalinska⏳ RTRN | Total Games Won | 10.5 | 11.82 | +12.6% | MORE | LOW | Elise Mertens | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 129 | Jasmine Paolini🧊 COLD | Break Points Won | 5.0 | 4.39 | +12.2% | LESS | LOW | Solana Sierra | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 130 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo🟨 WARM | Total Games Won | 8.5 | 9.48 | +11.5% | MORE | LOW | Jannik Sinner | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 131 | Elise Mertens | Total Games | 21.0 | 23.27 | +10.8% | MORE | LOW | Maja Chwalinska | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 132 | Katerina Siniakova🟨 WARM | Total Games Won | 10.5 | 9.42 | +10.3% | LESS | LOW | Victoria Mboko | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 133 | Claire Liu🟨 WARM | Break Points Won | 4.5 | 4.94 | +9.7% | MORE | LOW | Maria Sakkari | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 134 | Hailey Baptiste🟨 WARM | Break Points Won | 4.5 | 4.93 | +9.5% | MORE | LOW | Xiyu Wang | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 135 | Jannik Sinner🟨 WARM | Total Games | 27.0 | 24.55 | +9.1% | LESS | LOW | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 136 | Zachary Svajda🧊 COLD | Break Points Won | 3.5 | 3.19 | +8.8% | LESS | LOW | Adam Walton | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 137 | Oleksandra Oliynykova | Break Points Won | 5.0 | 5.44 | +8.7% | MORE | LOW | Kimberly Birrell | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 138 | Claire Liu🟨 WARM | Total Games Won | 11.5 | 10.52 | +8.6% | LESS | LOW | Maria Sakkari | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 139 | Xiyu Wang🟨 WARM | Total Games Won | 11.5 | 10.53 | +8.4% | LESS | LOW | Hailey Baptiste | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 140 | Elise Mertens | Total Games | 21.5 | 23.27 | +8.2% | MORE | LOW | Maja Chwalinska | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 141 | McCartney Kessler⏳ RTRN | Total Games Won | 9.0 | 9.57 | +6.3% | MORE | LOW | Diana Shnaider | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 142 | Maria Sakkari🧊 COLD | Break Points Won | 5.0 | 4.68 | +6.3% | LESS | LOW | Claire Liu | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 143 | Victoria Mboko🟨 WARM | Break Points Won | 5.0 | 5.29 | +5.9% | MORE | LOW | Katerina Siniakova | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 144 | Hamad Medjedovic⏳ RTRN | Break Points Won | 3.5 | 3.33 | +5.0% | LESS | LOW | Casper Ruud | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 145 | Mirra Andreeva🟨 WARM | Break Points Won | 5.5 | 5.23 | +4.9% | LESS | LOW | Marina Bassols Ribera | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 146 | Ann Li | Break Points Won | 5.5 | 5.27 | +4.2% | LESS | LOW | Diane Parry | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 147 | Anastasia Potapova🟨 WARM | Break Points Won | 5.0 | 5.19 | +3.9% | MORE | LOW | Katie Boulter | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 148 | Yulia Putintseva | Break Points Won | 5.0 | 4.82 | +3.5% | LESS | LOW | Camila Osorio | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 149 | Solana Sierra🟨 WARM | Total Games Won | 11.5 | 11.12 | +3.3% | LESS | LOW | Jasmine Paolini | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 150 | Emma Navarro⏳ RTRN | Break Points Won | 4.5 | 4.64 | +3.1% | MORE | LOW | Iva Jovic | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 151 | Anna Kalinskaya | Break Points Won | 5.0 | 5.15 | +2.9% | MORE | LOW | Alina Korneeva | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 152 | Hubert Hurkacz🟨 WARM | Break Points Won | 3.5 | 3.58 | +2.4% | MORE | LOW | Frances Tiafoe | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 153 | Karolina Muchova⏳ RTRN | Break Points Won | 5.0 | 5.09 | +1.7% | MORE | LOW | Kamilla Rakhimova | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 154 | Lorenzo Sonego🧊 COLD | Aces | 5.5 | 5.59 | +1.6% | MORE | LOW | Tommy Paul | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 155 | Oleksandra Oliynykova | Total Games | 20.5 | 20.82 | +1.6% | MORE | LOW | Kimberly Birrell | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 156 | Donna Vekic🟨 WARM | Total Games Won | 10.5 | 10.65 | +1.5% | MORE | LOW | Naomi Osaka | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 157 | Camila Osorio | Break Points Won | 5.0 | 5.03 | +0.7% | MORE | LOW | Yulia Putintseva | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 158 | Alina Korneeva🧊 COLD | Total Games Won | 9.5 | 9.53 | +0.3% | MORE | LOW | Anna Kalinskaya | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 159 | Sorana Cirstea🟨 WARM | Break Points Won | 5.0 | 5.01 | +0.2% | MORE | LOW | Eva Lys | clay | — | 1.0x |
Kalshi tennis — 2 picks · $4.00 staked
Day 1 - paper only, grade EOD before scaling · locked 2026-05-27T13:10:18.542555+00:00
| # | Match | Pick | Our P | Ask | Edge | Tier | Surface | Stake | Status | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu | Yibing Wu | 53.7% | 28¢ | 25.7pp | ELITE | hard | $2.00 | OPEN | +0.00 |
| 2 | Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang | Xiyu Wang | 56.1% | 34¢ | 22.1pp | ELITE | hard | $2.00 | OPEN | +0.00 |
PrizePicks tennis — 1 picks · $1.00 staked
Day 1 - paper only, grade EOD before scaling · locked 2026-05-27T13:10:18.487908+00:00
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Our proj | Side | Edge | Tier | Surface | Stake | Status | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Xiyu Wang | Total Games Won | 11.5 | 10.53 | LESS | 8.4% | MED | clay | $1.00 | OPEN | +0.00 |
Polymarket = retail/crypto sentiment. We can't bet there from CA, but the divergence vs Kalshi (sharp) reveals where the public is loading up. Generated 2026-05-27T09:12:17 · flagged threshold = ±3.0pp · 3 flagged futures / 0 flagged matches.
Grand-slam futures · ANY 2026 Slam (Kalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM vs Polymarket per-slam aggregate)
Polymarket "any-slam" probability computed naively as
1 - product(1 - p_slam). Positive divergence = public (Polymarket) more bullish than sharp (Kalshi). Sorted by |divergence|.| Player | Sharp (Kalshi) | Public (Poly) | Δ | Poly per-slam |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jannik Sinner · exact | 90.0% | 95.7% | +5.7pp · PUBLIC HIGHER | Fre 74%, Wim 65%, US 54% |
| Ben Shelton · exact | 11.0% | 5.8% | -5.2pp · SHARP HIGHER | Fre 1%, Wim 3%, US 2% |
| Daniil Medvedev · exact | 10.0% | 5.4% | -4.6pp · SHARP HIGHER | Wim 2%, US 4% |
| Novak Djokovic · exact | 15.5% | 18.0% | +2.5pp · PUBLIC HIGHER | Fre 5%, Wim 10%, US 4% |
| Karen Khachanov · exact | 3.0% | 0.8% | -2.2pp · SHARP HIGHER | Fre 0%, Wim 1% |
| Alexander Bublik · exact | 3.0% | 1.0% | -2.0pp · SHARP HIGHER | Wim 0%, US 1% |
| Lorenzo Musetti · exact | 4.0% | 2.1% | -1.9pp · SHARP HIGHER | Wim 1%, US 1% |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime · exact | 2.5% | 0.6% | -1.9pp · SHARP HIGHER | Wim 1% |
| Casper Ruud · exact | 4.0% | 2.5% | -1.5pp · SHARP HIGHER | Fre 2%, Wim 0% |
| Jack Draper · exact | 6.0% | 4.8% | -1.2pp · SHARP HIGHER | Wim 3%, US 2% |
| Alexander Zverev · exact | 15.0% | 14.3% | -0.7pp · SHARP HIGHER | Fre 7%, Wim 4%, US 3% |
| Frances Tiafoe · exact | 0.5% | 1.0% | +0.5pp · PUBLIC HIGHER | Fre 0%, Wim 0%, US 1% |
| Alex de Minaur · exact | 2.0% | 1.6% | -0.4pp · SHARP HIGHER | Fre 1%, Wim 1% |
| Taylor Fritz · exact | 4.5% | 4.2% | -0.3pp · SHARP HIGHER | Wim 3%, US 1% |
Per-match overlaps
No active per-match overlaps right now (Polymarket tennis volume concentrates in Grand Slam futures).
Per-stat-type MAE (n_graded=18)
Bar width = MAE (lower = better). "INSUFFICIENT" = need more graded picks.
Total Games
n=4
Ours
PP
Us 6.45
PP 3.25
INSUFFICIENT_N
PP 3.25
INSUFFICIENT_N
Total Games Won
n=13
Ours
PP
Us 5.11
PP 4.96
NULL
PP 4.96
NULL
Total Tie Breaks
n=1
Ours
PP
Us 0.25
PP 0.50
INSUFFICIENT_N
PP 0.50
INSUFFICIENT_N
Per-tier MAE
Bar width = MAE (lower = better). "INSUFFICIENT" = need more graded picks.
ELITE
n=16
Ours
PP
Us 4.94
PP 3.75
NULL
PP 3.75
NULL
MED
n=0
Ours
PP
Us —
PP —
INSUFFICIENT_N
PP —
INSUFFICIENT_N
STRONG
n=2
Ours
PP
Us 6.75
PP 9.00
INSUFFICIENT_N
PP 9.00
INSUFFICIENT_N
No AAR available yet.
Expected:
Expected:
~/.claude/projects/.../memory/aar_tennis_<date>.md| # | Player | Stat | Opp | Open | Latest | Diff | Abs | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | Total Games | Matteo Arnaldi | 38.5 | 39.5 | +1.00 | 1.00 | UP |
| 2 | Maja Chwalinska | Total Games Won | Elise Mertens | 11.5 | 10.5 | -1.00 | 1.00 | DOWN |
| 3 | Tommy Paul | Aces | Lorenzo Sonego | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.50 | 0.50 | DOWN |
ATP top 50
| Rk | Player | Country | Pts | ELO overall | ELO clay | ELO grass | ELO hard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jannik Sinner | ITA | 14750 | 2175 | 1857 | 1695 | 2062 |
| 2 | Carlos Alcaraz | ESP | 11960 | 2070 | 1867 | 1717 | 1956 |
| 3 | Alexander Zverev | GER | 5705 | 1961 | 1816 | 1594 | 1863 |
| 4 | Novak Djokovic | SRB | 4460 | 1955 | 1738 | 1636 | 1846 |
| 5 | Ben Shelton | USA | 4070 | 1848 | 1683 | 1561 | 1765 |
| 6 | Felix Auger Aliassime | CAN | 4050 | 1864 | 1605 | 1517 | 1803 |
| 7 | Alex De Minaur | AUS | 3855 | 1847 | 1652 | 1590 | 1806 |
| 8 | Daniil Medvedev | RUS | 3760 | 1878 | 1641 | 1585 | 1845 |
| 9 | Taylor Fritz | USA | 3720 | 1826 | 1581 | 1722 | 1749 |
| 10 | Alexander Bublik | KAZ | 3320 | 1803 | 1724 | 1569 | 1703 |
| 11 | Lorenzo Musetti | ITA | 3115 | 1828 | 1756 | 1607 | 1723 |
| 12 | Jiri Lehecka | CZE | 2665 | 1837 | 1647 | 1574 | 1754 |
| 13 | Andrey Rublev | RUS | 2460 | 1762 | 1658 | 1516 | 1683 |
| 14 | Flavio Cobolli | ITA | 2340 | 1796 | 1720 | 1557 | 1655 |
| 15 | Karen Khachanov | RUS | 2320 | 1691 | 1586 | 1567 | 1639 |
| 16 | Casper Ruud | NOR | 2275 | 1792 | 1744 | 1502 | 1685 |
| 17 | Luciano Darderi | ITA | 2260 | 1714 | 1767 | 1466 | 1466 |
| 18 | Learner Tien | USA | 2180 | 1800 | 1466 | 1506 | 1789 |
| 19 | Valentin Vacherot | MON | 2103 | 1810 | 1702 | 1467 | 1738 |
| 20 | Arthur Fils | FRA | 2040 | 1912 | 1762 | 1546 | 1771 |
| 21 | Tommy Paul | USA | 1945 | 1842 | 1748 | 1587 | 1743 |
| 22 | Frances Tiafoe | USA | 1905 | 1771 | 1604 | 1488 | 1719 |
| 23 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | ESP | 1860 | 1756 | 1572 | 1545 | 1703 |
| 24 | Cameron Norrie | GBR | 1785 | 1776 | 1658 | 1529 | 1682 |
| 25 | Arthur Rinderknech | FRA | 1736 | 1713 | 1566 | 1530 | 1631 |
| 26 | Francisco Cerundolo | ARG | 1570 | 1801 | 1726 | 1426 | 1698 |
| 27 | Jakub Mensik | CZE | 1550 | 1795 | 1589 | 1497 | 1747 |
| 28 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | ARG | 1510 | 1785 | 1693 | 1456 | 1636 |
| 29 | Rafael Jodar | ESP | 1461 | 1874 | 1714 | — | 1765 |
| 30 | Joao Fonseca | BRA | 1435 | 1818 | 1638 | 1495 | 1795 |
| 31 | Ignacio Buse | PER | 1412 | 1709 | 1693 | 1482 | 1562 |
| 32 | Ugo Humbert | FRA | 1370 | 1712 | 1451 | 1517 | 1697 |
| 33 | Tallon Griekspoor | NED | 1340 | 1681 | 1575 | 1564 | 1645 |
| 34 | Corentin Moutet | FRA | 1323 | 1706 | 1600 | 1574 | 1640 |
| 35 | Brandon Nakashima | USA | 1295 | 1706 | 1570 | 1590 | 1660 |
| 36 | Alejandro Tabilo | CHI | 1278 | 1786 | 1696 | 1575 | 1637 |
| 37 | Alexander Blockx | BEL | 1238 | 1820 | 1689 | 1508 | 1713 |
| 38 | Mariano Navone | ARG | 1215 | 1718 | 1716 | 1460 | 1507 |
| 39 | Denis Shapovalov | CAN | 1170 | 1690 | 1498 | 1472 | 1698 |
| 40 | Zizou Bergs | BEL | 1150 | 1705 | 1570 | 1521 | 1631 |
| 41 | Jaume Munar | ESP | 1145 | 1695 | 1563 | 1508 | 1635 |
| 42 | Alex Michelsen | USA | 1115 | 1715 | 1488 | 1538 | 1702 |
| 43 | Tomas Machac | CZE | 1080 | 1737 | 1592 | 1500 | 1682 |
| 44 | Holger Rune | DEN | 1060 | 1744 | 1663 | 1515 | 1710 |
| 45 | Adrian Mannarino | FRA | 1037 | 1589 | 1390 | 1584 | 1569 |
| 46 | Marin Cilic | CRO | 1010 | 1710 | 1539 | 1611 | 1635 |
| 47 | Sebastian Korda | USA | 1000 | 1806 | 1537 | 1556 | 1757 |
| 48 | Miomir Kecmanovic | SRB | 980 | 1607 | 1483 | 1500 | 1595 |
| 49 | Gabriel Diallo | CAN | 975 | 1651 | 1554 | 1576 | 1615 |
| 50 | Ethan Quinn | USA | 974 | 1731 | 1594 | 1509 | 1683 |
WTA top 50
| Rk | Player | Country | Pts | ELO overall | ELO clay | ELO grass | ELO hard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aryna Sabalenka | BLR | 9960 | 2115 | 1808 | 1588 | 2045 |
| 2 | Elena Rybakina | KAZ | 8313 | 2063 | 1760 | 1580 | 1972 |
| 3 | Iga Swiatek | POL | 7273 | 1924 | 1780 | 1658 | 1852 |
| 4 | Coco Gauff | USA | 6749 | 1957 | 1787 | 1519 | 1871 |
| 5 | Jessica Pegula | USA | 6286 | 1997 | 1701 | 1583 | 1901 |
| 6 | Amanda Anisimova | USA | 5958 | 1916 | 1561 | 1638 | 1822 |
| 7 | Elina Svitolina | UKR | 4315 | 1922 | 1727 | 1550 | 1824 |
| 8 | Mirra Andreeva | RUS | 4181 | 1932 | 1800 | 1513 | 1797 |
| 9 | Victoria Mboko | CAN | 3710 | 1936 | 1704 | 1515 | 1891 |
| 10 | Karolina Muchova | CZE | 3318 | 1951 | 1597 | 1494 | 1869 |
| 11 | Belinda Bencic | SUI | 3145 | 1898 | 1584 | 1561 | 1831 |
| 12 | Linda Noskova | CZE | 3054 | 1881 | 1589 | 1583 | 1763 |
| 13 | Jasmine Paolini | ITA | 2787 | 1815 | 1707 | 1585 | 1741 |
| 14 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | RUS | 2679 | 1747 | 1593 | 1584 | 1662 |
| 15 | Marta Kostyuk | UKR | 2387 | 1924 | 1757 | 1449 | 1755 |
| 16 | Naomi Osaka | JPN | 2341 | 1819 | 1628 | 1514 | 1734 |
| 17 | Iva Jovic | USA | 2306 | 1829 | 1663 | 1601 | 1759 |
| 18 | Sorana Cirstea | ROU | 1985 | 1866 | 1612 | 1429 | 1797 |
| 19 | Madison Keys | USA | 1962 | 1836 | 1706 | 1558 | 1766 |
| 20 | Clara Tauson | DEN | 1920 | 1746 | 1560 | 1520 | 1679 |
| 21 | Elise Mertens | BEL | 1858 | 1802 | 1580 | 1581 | 1714 |
| 22 | Leylah Fernandez | CAN | 1844 | 1790 | 1590 | 1546 | 1679 |
| 23 | Diana Shnaider | RUS | 1796 | 1782 | 1647 | 1565 | 1686 |
| 24 | Anna Kalinskaya | RUS | 1792 | 1784 | 1538 | 1546 | 1721 |
| 25 | Emma Navarro | USA | 1719 | 1680 | 1578 | 1590 | 1613 |
| 26 | Hailey Baptiste | USA | 1683 | 1785 | 1662 | 1488 | 1667 |
| 27 | Liudmila Samsonova | RUS | 1635 | 1697 | 1604 | 1619 | 1566 |
| 28 | Marie Bouzkova | CZE | 1631 | 1773 | 1699 | 1476 | 1648 |
| 29 | Ann Li | USA | 1601 | 1745 | 1638 | 1478 | 1647 |
| 30 | Anastasia Potapova | RUS | 1470 | 1787 | 1690 | 1484 | 1640 |
| 31 | Jelena Ostapenko | LAT | 1464 | 1723 | 1632 | 1534 | 1621 |
| 32 | Jaqueline Cristian | ROU | 1414 | 1770 | 1635 | 1432 | 1698 |
| 33 | Cristina Bucsa | ESP | 1406 | 1738 | 1475 | 1514 | 1684 |
| 34 | Xin Yu Wang | CHN | 1371 | 1735 | 1546 | 1591 | 1616 |
| 35 | Sara Bejlek | CZE | 1369 | 1832 | 1797 | 1486 | 1653 |
| 36 | Katerina Siniakova | CZE | 1362 | 1777 | 1549 | 1578 | 1693 |
| 37 | Alexandra Eala | PHI | 1340 | 1786 | 1478 | 1600 | 1748 |
| 38 | Elisabetta Cocciaretto | ITA | 1320 | 1800 | 1584 | 1577 | 1689 |
| 39 | Emma Raducanu | GBR | 1301 | 1753 | 1570 | 1577 | 1658 |
| 40 | Janice Tjen | INA | 1292 | 1817 | 1662 | — | 1785 |
| 41 | Barbora Krejcikova | CZE | 1271 | 1715 | 1480 | 1606 | 1647 |
| 42 | Tereza Valentova | CZE | 1265 | 1845 | 1746 | 1517 | 1788 |
| 43 | Lois Boisson | FRA | 1264 | 1791 | 1811 | 1483 | 1554 |
| 44 | Marketa Vondrousova | CZE | 1263 | 1728 | 1606 | 1578 | 1609 |
| 45 | Dayana Yastremska | UKR | 1246 | 1695 | 1588 | 1575 | 1594 |
| 46 | Magdalena Frech | POL | 1238 | 1649 | 1534 | 1434 | 1613 |
| 47 | Laura Siegemund | GER | 1230 | 1680 | 1535 | 1541 | 1592 |
| 48 | Mccartney Kessler | USA | 1229 | 1754 | 1516 | 1583 | 1688 |
| 49 | Maria Sakkari | GRE | 1208 | 1707 | 1563 | 1486 | 1658 |
| 50 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | ESP | 1200 | 1658 | 1643 | 1524 | 1578 |
| Source | DB / file | Last pulled | Age | Rows | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi KXATPMATCH | tennis_kalshi.sqlite | 2026-05-27T16:09:57.336605+00:00 | 2m | 1810 | fresh |
| Kalshi KXWTAMATCH | tennis_kalshi.sqlite | 2026-05-27T16:09:57.336605+00:00 | 2m | 1672 | fresh |
| Kalshi KXFRENCHOPEN | tennis_kalshi.sqlite | 2026-05-27T16:09:57.336605+00:00 | 2m | 0 | fresh |
| Kalshi KXFOPENMENSINGLE | tennis_kalshi.sqlite | 2026-05-27T16:09:57.336605+00:00 | 2m | 0 | fresh |
| Kalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM | tennis_kalshi.sqlite | 2026-05-27T16:09:57.336605+00:00 | 2m | 14 | fresh |
| Kalshi KXUSOPEN | tennis_kalshi.sqlite | 2026-05-27T16:09:57.336605+00:00 | 2m | 0 | fresh |
| Kalshi KXATPSETWINNER | tennis_kalshi.sqlite | 2026-05-27T16:09:57.336605+00:00 | 2m | 3706 | fresh |
| Kalshi KXATPTOTALSETS | tennis_kalshi.sqlite | 2026-05-27T16:09:57.336605+00:00 | 2m | 0 | fresh |
| Kalshi KXATPSETSWEEP | tennis_kalshi.sqlite | 2026-05-27T16:09:57.336605+00:00 | 2m | 1 | fresh |
| Kalshi KXATPGAMESPREAD | tennis_kalshi.sqlite | 2026-05-27T16:09:57.336605+00:00 | 2m | 0 | fresh |
| Kalshi KXATPEXACTMATCH | tennis_kalshi.sqlite | 2026-05-27T16:09:57.336605+00:00 | 2m | 1684 | fresh |
| Kalshi KXWTADOUBLES | tennis_kalshi.sqlite | 2026-05-27T16:09:57.336605+00:00 | 2m | 80 | fresh |
| Kalshi KXATP1RANK | tennis_kalshi.sqlite | 2026-05-27T16:09:57.336605+00:00 | 2m | 16 | fresh |
| elo last computed | tennis.sqlite | 2026-05-27T13:08:06+00:00 | 3.07h | 20051 | aging |
| rankings last pulled | tennis.sqlite | 2026-05-27T13:08:10+00:00 | 3.07h | 7538 | aging |
| rankings atp latest date | tennis.sqlite | 2026-05-25 | 64.21h | — | stale |
| rankings wta latest date | tennis.sqlite | 2026-05-25 | 64.21h | — | stale |
| mirror atp schedule | tennis.sqlite | 2026-05-27T16:11:34.022267+00:00 | 0m | 114 | fresh |
| h2h last computed | tennis.sqlite | 2026-05-17T10:11:57.514615+00:00 | 246.01h | — | stale |
| h2h n pairs | tennis.sqlite | 190184 | missing | — | missing |
| last player db run | tennis.sqlite | 1779887404 | missing | — | missing |
| results last_run | tennis_results.sqlite | [2026-05-27T13:09:49.891200+00:00] 2026-05-27T13:09:47.981080+00:00; dates=['20260526']; rows=698; resolved=670 | missing | — | missing |
| pp_edges CSV | pp_edges_tennis_2026-05-27.csv | 2026-05-27T16:12:16.982946+00:00 | 0m | — | fresh |
| kalshi edges JSON | tennis_kalshi_edges_2026-05-27.json | 2026-05-27T16:12:12.382849+00:00 | 0m | — | fresh |
| paper trades PP | paper_trades_pp_tennis_2026-05-27.json | 2026-05-27T13:10:18.989497+00:00 | 3.03h | — | aging |
| paper trades Kalshi | paper_trades_kalshi_tennis_2026-05-27.json | 2026-05-27T15:18:26.518824+00:00 | 54m | — | fresh |
| daily payload | daily_tennis_2026-05-27.json | 2026-05-27T16:11:54.103785+00:00 | 0m | — | fresh |
| PP movement | pp_line_movement_tennis_2026-05-27.csv | 2026-05-27T16:11:49.047059+00:00 | 0m | — | fresh |
| PP calibration | pp_calibration_tennis.json | 2026-05-27T13:10:19.577190+00:00 | 3.03h | — | aging |