T
Tennis EdgeBoard
ATP + WTA daily edges - Kalshi + PrizePicks - auto-refresh 2m
Generated
2026-08-02 17:44 UTC
Sources
29
Day-2 calibration reset

Real-money probe lost 0/4 (-$10.00) on 5/17. Sim was wildly over-confident on qualifying-round picks — 8/8 qualifying edges lost despite avg +35pp model edge.

Qualifying filter now active. Real money gate-locked until 5/30 ($50 paper P&L + MAE <3pp + n≥50 graded). See Calibration & Lessons tab for the full Day-2 AAR.

Kalshi KXATPMATCH 3m · 1896rKalshi KXWTAMATCH 3m · 1928rKalshi KXFRENCHOPEN 3mKalshi KXFOPENMENSINGLE 3mKalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM 3m · 14rKalshi KXUSOPEN 3mKalshi KXATPSETWINNER 3m · 4382rKalshi KXATPTOTALSETS 3mKalshi KXATPSETSWEEP 3m · 2rKalshi KXATPGAMESPREAD 3mKalshi KXATPEXACTMATCH 3m · 4288rKalshi KXWTADOUBLES 3m · 292rKalshi KXATP1RANK 3m · 16relo last computed 42d · 20430rrankings last pulled 48d · 11348rrankings atp latest date 55drankings wta latest date 55dmirror atp schedule 1m · 269rh2h last computed 77dh2h n pairs missinglast player db run missingresults last_run missingpp_edges CSV 1mkalshi edges JSON 1mpaper trades PP 0mpaper trades Kalshi 0mdaily payload 0mPP movement 0mPP calibration 0m
Matches today
53
scheduled
ELITE edges
3
across Kalshi + PP
STRONG edges
2
tier 2
MED edges
0
tier 3
Paper locks
0
Kalshi + PP
Real Money YTD
-$10.00
paper-gate restored
Qualifying skipped
0
filtered out today
Last refresh
17:44
2026-08-02 UTC
🏆 Best Bet (main-draw)
Jessica Pegula
Alexandra Eala vs Jessica Pegula · Final hard · ELITE
+18.9pp
Our P 81% · Mkt P 62%
Ask 62¢
Vol24 1127095
🎯 Safest (P ≥ 65%)
Jessica Pegula
Alexandra Eala vs Jessica Pegula · Final hard · ELITE
81%
Heavy main-draw favorite · FIRE
Edge +18.9pp
Ask 62¢
💎 Biggest Payout (ELITE)
Rafael Jodar
Taylor Fritz vs Rafael Jodar · Final hard · ELITE
2.4x
Longest-priced ELITE main-draw · Our P 54%
Ask 41¢
Edge +13.1pp
#MatchTournamentRoundSurfaceStartELO AELO BELO diffKalshi event
1Kimberly Birrell vs Viktorija GolubicNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 16:3017511684+67KXWTAMATCH-26AUG02BIRGOL
2? vs Sara BejlekNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 16:301653
3Kimberly Birrell vs Viktorija GolubicNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 16:3017511684+67KXWTAMATCH-26AUG02BIRGOL
4? vs Sara BejlekNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 16:301653
5Kristina Liutova vs Darja VidmanovaThe Memphis ClassicFinalhardAug 02 17:3517191725-7KXWTAMATCH-26AUG02LIUVID
6Aleksandar Vukic vs Daniel AltmaierNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 18:0015581516+42KXATPSETWINNER-26AUG02VUKALT-2
7Matteo Berrettini vs Mariano NavoneNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 18:0016941507+187KXATPMATCH-26AUG01BERNAV
8James Duckworth vs Christopher OconnellNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 18:0016041614-11KXATPMATCH-26AUG02DUCOCO
9Nicolas Mejia vs Martin LandaluceNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 18:0015481677-130KXATPMATCH-26AUG02MEJLAN
10Kamilla Rakhimova vs Venus WilliamsNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 18:0016391407+232KXWTAMATCH-26AUG02RAKWIL
11Lois Boisson vs Antonia RuzicNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 18:0015541700-146KXWTAMATCH-26AUG02BOIRUZ
12Aoi Ito vs Katherine SebovNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 18:0016691672-3KXWTAMATCH-26AUG02ITOSEB
13Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ariana ArseneaultNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 18:0015781592-14KXWTAMATCH-26AUG02BOUARS
14Aleksandar Vukic vs Daniel AltmaierNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 18:0015581516+42KXATPSETWINNER-26AUG02VUKALT-2
15Matteo Berrettini vs Mariano NavoneNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 18:0016941507+187KXATPMATCH-26AUG01BERNAV
16James Duckworth vs Christopher OconnellNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 18:0016041614-11KXATPMATCH-26AUG02DUCOCO
17Nicolas Mejia vs Martin LandaluceNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 18:0015481677-130KXATPMATCH-26AUG02MEJLAN
18Kamilla Rakhimova vs Venus WilliamsNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 18:0016391407+232KXWTAMATCH-26AUG02RAKWIL
19Lois Boisson vs Antonia RuzicNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 18:0015541700-146KXWTAMATCH-26AUG02BOIRUZ
20Aoi Ito vs Katherine SebovNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 18:0016691672-3KXWTAMATCH-26AUG02ITOSEB
21Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ariana ArseneaultNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 18:0015781592-14KXWTAMATCH-26AUG02BOUARS
22Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra EalaMubadala DC OpenFinalhardAug 02 18:3019011748+153KXWTAMATCH-26AUG02PEGEAL
23Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra EalaMubadala DC OpenFinalhardAug 02 18:3019011748+153KXWTAMATCH-26AUG02PEGEAL
24Marton Fucsovics vs Corentin MoutetNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 19:0016361640-4KXATPSETWINNER-26AUG01FUCMOU-2
25Marton Fucsovics vs Corentin MoutetNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 19:0016361640-4KXATPSETWINNER-26AUG01FUCMOU-2
26Taylor Fritz vs Rafael JodarMubadala DC OpenFinalhardAug 02 19:3017491765-16KXATPMATCH-26AUG02FRIJOD
27Taylor Fritz vs Rafael JodarMubadala DC OpenFinalhardAug 02 19:3017491765-16KXATPMATCH-26AUG02FRIJOD
28Luca Van Assche vs Titouan DroguetNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 19:3017041628+76KXATPSETWINNER-26AUG02VANDRO-2
29Moyuka Uchijima vs Cristina BucsaNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 19:3015741684-110KXWTAMATCH-26AUG02UCHBUC
30Lucrezia Stefanini vs Camila OsorioNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 19:3016141669-55KXWTAMATCH-26AUG02STEOSO
31Luca Van Assche vs Titouan DroguetNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 19:3017041628+76KXATPSETWINNER-26AUG02VANDRO-2
32Moyuka Uchijima vs Cristina BucsaNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 19:3015741684-110KXWTAMATCH-26AUG02UCHBUC
33Lucrezia Stefanini vs Camila OsorioNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 19:3016141669-55KXWTAMATCH-26AUG02STEOSO
34Emerson Jones vs Lanlana TararudeeNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 20:0017691814-45KXWTAMATCH-26AUG02JONTAR
35Emerson Jones vs Lanlana TararudeeNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 20:0017691814-45KXWTAMATCH-26AUG02JONTAR
36Magdalena Frech vs Leolia JeanjeanNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 21:0016131614-0KXWTAMATCH-26AUG02FREJEA
37Mccartney Kessler vs Cadence BraceNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 21:0016881669+19KXWTAMATCH-26AUG02KESBRA
38Rebecca Sramkova vs Anna BlinkovaNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 21:0016111577+34KXWTAMATCH-26AUG02SRABLI
39Magdalena Frech vs Leolia JeanjeanNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 21:0016131614-0KXWTAMATCH-26AUG02FREJEA
40Mccartney Kessler vs Cadence BraceNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 21:0016881669+19KXWTAMATCH-26AUG02KESBRA
41Rebecca Sramkova vs Anna BlinkovaNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 21:0016111577+34KXWTAMATCH-26AUG02SRABLI
42Talia Gibson vs Elisabetta CocciarettoNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 21:3018321689+143KXWTAMATCH-26AUG02GIBCOC
43Talia Gibson vs Elisabetta CocciarettoNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 21:3018321689+143KXWTAMATCH-26AUG02GIBCOC
44Sho Shimabukuro vs Marin CilicNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 22:0016431635+8KXATPSETWINNER-26AUG02SHICIL-1
45Sho Shimabukuro vs Marin CilicNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 22:0016431635+8KXATPSETWINNER-26AUG02SHICIL-1
46? vs Peyton StearnsNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 22:301621KXWTAMATCH-26AUG02RUSSTE
47? vs Peyton StearnsNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 22:301621KXWTAMATCH-26AUG02RUSSTE
48Gabriel Diallo vs Kyrian JacquetNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 23:0016151678-63KXATPSETWINNER-26AUG02DIAJAC-1
49Nikola Bartunkova vs Bianca AndreescuNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 23:0017061624+82KXWTAMATCH-26AUG02BARAND
50Gabriel Diallo vs Kyrian JacquetNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 23:0016151678-63KXATPSETWINNER-26AUG02DIAJAC-1
51Nikola Bartunkova vs Bianca AndreescuNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 23:0017061624+82KXWTAMATCH-26AUG02BARAND
52Benjamin Bonzi vs Yannick HanfmannNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 23:3016781658+20KXATPSETWINNER-26AUG02BONHAN-1
53Benjamin Bonzi vs Yannick HanfmannNational Bank Open presented by RogersRound 1hardAug 02 23:3016781658+20KXATPSETWINNER-26AUG02BONHAN-1
#MatchOur pickOur PMkt PAskEdgeTierDecisionVol 24hSurfaceRoundEV/$
1Rinky Hijikata vs Jaume MunarRinky Hijikata52.1%10.0%10¢+42.1ppLOWPAPER1154776hardRound Of 128+0.421
2Kamil Majchrzak vs Gael MonfilsGael Monfils53.2%26.0%26¢+27.2ppLOWPAPER4607hardRound 1+0.272
3Kamilla Rakhimova vs Venus WilliamsVenus Williams42.8%21.0%21¢+21.8ppLOWPAPER78934hardRound 1+0.218
4Cameron Norrie vs Camilo Ugo CarabelliCamilo Ugo Carabelli42.4%23.0%23¢+19.4ppLOWPAPER5283hardRound Of 128+0.194
5Alexandra Eala vs Jessica PegulaJessica Pegula80.9%62.0%62¢+18.9ppELITEFIRE1127095hardFinal+0.189
6Taylor Townsend vs Tereza ValentovaTaylor Townsend53.8%35.0%35¢+18.9ppLOWPAPER4339hardRound 1+0.188
7Ariana Arseneault vs Jessica Bouzas ManeiroAriana Arseneault29.9%13.0%13¢+16.9ppLOWPAPER42600hardRound 1+0.169
8Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Nuno BorgesAleksandar Kovacevic46.6%30.0%30¢+16.6ppLOWPAPER931017hardRound Of 128+0.166
9Carol Zhao vs Magda LinetteCarol Zhao25.7%11.0%11¢+14.7ppLOWPAPER31112hardRound 1+0.147
10Cadence Brace vs McCartney KesslerCadence Brace29.8%16.0%16¢+13.8ppLOWPAPER4058hardRound 1+0.138
11Duncan Chan vs Thiago Agustin TiranteDuncan Chan41.7%28.0%28¢+13.7ppLOWPAPER263hardRound 1+0.137
12Taylor Fritz vs Rafael JodarRafael Jodar54.0%41.0%41¢+13.1ppELITEFIRE177641hardFinal+0.131
13Rebecca Marino vs Zeynep SonmezRebecca Marino38.7%27.0%27¢+11.7ppLOWPAPER180hardRound 1+0.117
14Renata Zarazua vs Tamara KorpatschTamara Korpatsch53.7%42.0%42¢+11.7ppLOWPAPER34905hardRound 1+0.117
15Aleksandar Vukic vs Daniel AltmaierDaniel Altmaier52.0%41.0%41¢+11.0ppLOWPAPER50898hardRound Of 128+0.110
16Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Karolina PliskovaOleksandra Oliynykova35.3%25.0%25¢+10.3ppLOWPAPER882hardRound 1+0.103
17Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai ZhangShuai Zhang45.6%36.0%36¢+9.6ppLOWPAPER1413hardRound Of 128+0.096
18Lois Boisson vs Antonia RuzicAntonia Ruzic60.3%51.0%51¢+9.3ppLOWPAPER4421hardRound 1+0.093
19Michael Zheng vs Miomir KecmanovicMichael Zheng50.3%41.0%41¢+9.3ppLOWPAPER1139755hardRound Of 128+0.093
20Talia Gibson vs Elisabetta CocciarettoTalia Gibson51.2%42.0%42¢+9.2ppLOWPAPER3019hardRound 1+0.092
21Sara Bejlek vs Xiyu WangXiyu Wang50.2%41.0%41¢+9.2ppLOWPAPER27074hardRound Of 128+0.092
22Diane Parry vs Kayla DayDiane Parry54.8%46.0%46¢+8.8ppLOWPAPER207hardRound 1+0.088
23Terence Atmane vs Jack DraperTerence Atmane41.5%33.0%33¢+8.5ppLOWPAPER5008hardRound Of 128+0.085
24Alexis Galarneau vs Vit KoprivaVit Kopriva56.4%48.0%48¢+8.4ppLOWPAPER8373hardRound 1+0.084
25Alex Michelsen vs Jan-Lennard StruffJan-Lennard Struff36.1%28.0%28¢+8.1ppLOWPAPER7363hardRound Of 128+0.081
26Panna Udvardy vs Eva LysPanna Udvardy45.0%37.0%37¢+8.0ppLOWPAPER4615hardRound 1+0.080
27Denis Shapovalov vs Zachary SvajdaZachary Svajda51.9%44.0%44¢+7.9ppLOWPAPER4639hardRound 1+0.079
28Janice Tjen vs Liudmila SamsonovaJanice Tjen45.5%38.0%38¢+7.5ppLOWPAPER617hardRound 1+0.075
29Tallon Griekspoor vs Lorenzo SonegoTallon Griekspoor58.0%51.0%51¢+7.0ppLOWPAPER2359hardRound Of 128+0.070
30Nicolas Mejia vs Martin LandaluceNicolas Mejia37.6%31.0%31¢+6.6ppLOWPAPER28861hardRound 1+0.066
31Marton Fucsovics vs Corentin MoutetMarton Fucsovics56.3%50.0%50¢+6.3ppLOWPAPER16353hardRound Of 128+0.063
32Mariano Navone vs Matteo BerrettiniMatteo Berrettini69.2%63.0%63¢+6.2ppLOWPAPER38174hardRound 1+0.062
33Lanlana Tararudee vs Emerson JonesEmerson Jones41.1%35.0%35¢+6.2ppLOWPAPER6392hardRound 1+0.062
34Adrian Mannarino vs Jacob FearnleyAdrian Mannarino45.0%39.0%39¢+6.0ppLOWPAPER255hardRound 1+0.060
35Polina Kudermetova vs Alina KorneevaPolina Kudermetova40.8%35.0%35¢+5.8ppLOWPAPER32hardRound 1+0.059
36Daniel Merida vs Liam DraxlDaniel Merida63.8%58.0%58¢+5.8ppLOWPAPER1254hardRound 1+0.058
37Yuliia Starodubtseva vs Maya JointMaya Joint48.5%43.0%43¢+5.5ppLOWPAPER25hardRound 1+0.055
38Nikola Bartunkova vs Bianca AndreescuBianca Andreescu46.1%41.0%41¢+5.1ppLOWPAPER2017hardRound 1+0.051
39Anna Bondar vs Anhelina KalininaAnna Bondar41.1%36.0%36¢+5.1ppLOWPAPER1157hardRound 1+0.051
40Adam Walton vs Jenson BrooksbyAdam Walton49.9%45.0%45¢+4.9ppLOWPAPER32hardRound 1+0.049
41Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Hamad MedjedovicJuan Manuel Cerundolo45.4%41.0%41¢+4.4ppLOWPAPER569hardRound Of 128+0.044
42Solana Sierra vs Sloane StephensSolana Sierra53.1%49.0%49¢+4.1ppLOWPAPER1262hardRound 1+0.041
43Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Alycia ParksVictoria Jimenez Kasintseva45.8%42.0%42¢+3.8ppLOWPAPER3hardRound 1+0.038
44Sho Shimabukuro vs Marin CilicMarin Cilic60.6%57.0%57¢+3.6ppLOWPAPER9253hardRound Of 128+0.036
45Lucrezia Stefanini vs Camila OsorioLucrezia Stefanini33.5%30.0%30¢+3.5ppLOWPAPER5475hardRound 1+0.035
46Magdalena Frech vs Leolia JeanjeanLeolia Jeanjean41.3%38.0%38¢+3.3ppLOWPAPER873hardRound 1+0.033
47Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Alexei PopyrinRoman Andres Burruchaga44.1%41.0%41¢+3.1ppLOWPAPER30hardRound 1+0.031
48Anna Blinkova vs Rebecca SramkovaRebecca Sramkova48.0%45.0%45¢+3.0ppLOWPAPER8032hardRound 1+0.030
49Shintaro Mochizuki vs Fabian MarozsanShintaro Mochizuki39.6%37.0%37¢+2.6ppLOWSKIP15hardRound 1+0.026
50Marcos Giron vs Hubert HurkaczMarcos Giron39.5%37.0%37¢+2.5ppLOWPAPER35hardRound Of 128+0.025
51Andrey Rublev vs Juncheng ShangJuncheng Shang38.4%36.0%36¢+2.4ppLOWSKIP0hardRound Of 64+0.024
52Luca Van Assche vs Titouan DroguetLuca Van Assche54.0%52.0%52¢+2.0ppLOWSKIP46125hardRound Of 128+0.020
53Caty McNally vs Tatjana MariaCaty McNally61.5%60.0%60¢+1.5ppLOWSKIP91hardRound 1+0.015
54Kyrian Jacquet vs Gabriel DialloKyrian Jacquet48.4%47.0%47¢+1.4ppLOWSKIP8788hardRound Of 128+0.014
55Katherine Sebov vs Aoi ItoKatherine Sebov42.3%41.0%41¢+1.3ppLOWSKIP1006hardRound 1+0.013
56James Duckworth vs Christopher O'ConnellJames Duckworth45.2%44.0%44¢+1.2ppLOWSKIP36595hardRound 1+0.012
57Kayla Cross vs Katie BoulterKayla Cross29.0%28.0%28¢+1.1ppLOWSKIP6199hardRound 1+0.010
58Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Martin Damm JrStefanos Tsitsipas65.2%66.0%66¢-0.8ppLOWSKIP58hardRound Of 128-0.008
59Mattia Bellucci vs Sebastian BaezSebastian Baez52.6%52.0%52¢+0.6ppLOWSKIP1527hardRound Of 128+0.006
60Botic Van de Zandschulp vs Giovanni Mpetshi PerricardGiovanni Mpetshi Perricard48.6%48.0%48¢+0.6ppLOWSKIP2047hardRound Of 128+0.006
61Daria Kasatkina vs Xinyu WangDaria Kasatkina51.4%52.0%52¢-0.6ppLOWSKIP963hardRound Of 128-0.006
62Valentin Royer vs Pablo Carreno BustaValentin Royer35.5%35.0%35¢+0.6ppLOWSKIP2980hardRound 1+0.006
63Moyuka Uchijima vs Cristina BucsaCristina Bucsa56.5%57.0%57¢-0.5ppLOWSKIP24845hardRound 1-0.005
64Peyton Stearns vs Elena-Gabriela RusePeyton Stearns55.2%55.0%55¢+0.2ppLOWSKIP2327hardRound 1+0.002
65Kimberly Birrell vs Viktorija GolubicKimberly Birrell51.1%51.0%51¢+0.1ppLOWSKIP16965hardRound 1+0.001
66Kristina Liutova vs Darja VidmanovaDarja Vidmanova50.1%50.0%50¢+0.1ppLOWSKIP250207hardFinal+0.001
67Yannick Hanfmann vs Benjamin BonziBenjamin Bonzi48.0%48.0%48¢-0.0ppLOWSKIP2964hardRound Of 128-0.000
#PlayerStatPP lineOur projEdge %SideTierOppSurfaceDemonPayout
1Rafael Jodar🟨 WARMBreak Points Won1.53.64+143.0%MOREELITETaylor Fritzclay1.0x
2Aoi ItoDouble Faults4.50.00+100.0%LESSLOWKatherine Sebovclay0.5x
3Kamilla Rakhimova🧊 COLDDouble Faults5.00.00+100.0%LESSLOWVenus Williamsclay1.0x
4Camila OsorioDouble Faults5.50.00+100.0%LESSLOWLucrezia Stefaniniclay1.0x
5Anna BlinkovaDouble Faults3.50.00+100.0%LESSLOWRebecca Sramkovaclay1.0x
6Rebecca SramkovaDouble Faults3.50.00+100.0%LESSLOWAnna Blinkovaclay1.0x
7Leolia JeanjeanDouble Faults5.50.00+100.0%LESSLOWMagdalena Frechclay1.0x
8Magdalena FrechDouble Faults2.50.00+100.0%LESSLOWLeolia Jeanjeanclay1.0x
9Alycia Parks🟨 WARMDouble Faults7.50.00+100.0%LESSLOWVictoria Jimenez Kasintsevaclay1.0x
10Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva🧊 COLDDouble Faults4.50.00+100.0%LESSLOWAlycia Parksclay1.0x
11Solana Sierra🟨 WARMDouble Faults5.50.00+100.0%LESSLOWSloane Stephensclay1.0x
12Diane Parry🧊 COLDDouble Faults3.50.00+100.0%LESSLOWKayla Dayclay1.0x
13Kayla Day🟨 WARMDouble Faults3.50.00+100.0%LESSLOWDiane Parryclay1.0x
14Hubert Hurkacz🟨 WARMTotal Tie Breaks0.50.12+75.9%LESSLOWMarcos Gironclay1.0x
15Taylor Fritz⏳ RTRNTotal Tie Breaks0.50.12+75.6%LESSSTRONGRafael Jodarclay1.0x
16Yannick Hanfmann🟨 WARMTotal Tie Breaks0.50.12+75.2%LESSLOWBenjamin Bonziclay1.0x
17Taylor Fritz⏳ RTRNAces11.56.10+46.9%LESSSTRONGRafael Jodarclay0.5x
18Carol Zhao🧊 COLDTotal Games Won5.57.96+44.7%MORELOWMagda Linetteclay0.5x
19Marcos GironTotal Games Won12.58.59+31.3%LESSLOWHubert Hurkaczclay0.5x
20Nikola BartunkovaBreak Points Won4.05.24+31.0%MORELOWBianca Andreescuclay1.0x
21Cadence BraceTotal Games Won6.58.45+30.0%MORELOWMcCartney Kesslerclay0.5x
22Weronika FalkowskaTotal Games18.523.81+28.7%MORELOWAmelia Paszunclay1.0x
23Aleksandar Vukic🧊 COLDTotal Games Won12.59.02+27.9%LESSLOWDaniel Altmaierclay0.5x
24Magda LinetteTotal Games18.523.34+26.1%MORELOWCarol Zhaoclay0.5x
25McCartney Kessler⏳ RTRNTotal Games19.524.29+24.6%MORELOWCadence Braceclay0.5x
26Alexis GalarneauTotal Games Won12.59.54+23.7%LESSLOWVit Koprivaclay0.5x
27Peyton StearnsBreak Points Won4.04.93+23.3%MORELOWElena-Gabriela Ruseclay1.0x
28Lorenzo Sonego🧊 COLDTotal Games Won12.59.59+23.3%LESSLOWTallon Griekspoorclay2.0x
29Adam Walton🧊 COLDTotal Games Won12.59.64+22.9%LESSLOWJenson Brooksbyclay0.5x
30Kamilla Rakhimova🧊 COLDTotal Games20.024.44+22.2%MORELOWVenus Williamsclay0.5x
31Benjamin BonziTotal Games Won12.59.76+21.9%LESSLOWYannick Hanfmannclay0.5x
32Shuai Zhang🧊 COLDTotal Games Won10.58.21+21.8%LESSLOWYulia Putintsevaclay0.5x
33Mona Barthel🧊 COLDTotal Games Won11.59.00+21.7%LESSLOWLaura Samsonclay1.0x
34Katie BoulterTotal Games20.524.52+19.6%MORELOWKayla Crossclay0.5x
35Gabriel Diallo🧊 COLDTotal Games Won12.510.15+18.8%LESSLOWKyrian Jacquetclay0.5x
36Viktoria Hruncakova🟨 WARMTotal Games20.524.35+18.8%MORELOWSusan Bandecchiclay1.0x
37Venus Williams🧊 COLDDouble Faults4.53.66+18.7%LESSLOWKamilla Rakhimovaclay1.0x
38Veronika Podrez⏳ RTRNTotal Games20.524.32+18.6%MORELOWElena Micicclay1.0x
39Linda Klimovicova🟨 WARMTotal Games20.524.25+18.3%MORELOWElizara Yanevaclay1.0x
40Jeline Vandromme🟨 WARMTotal Games20.524.25+18.3%MORELOWVendula Valdmannovaclay1.0x
41Jenson Brooksby🧊 COLDTotal Games Won12.510.31+17.5%LESSLOWAdam Waltonclay0.5x
42Kyrian Jacquet⏳ RTRNTotal Games Won12.510.32+17.4%LESSLOWGabriel Dialloclay0.5x
43Corentin MoutetTotal Games Won12.510.34+17.3%LESSLOWMarton Fucsovicsclay0.5x
44Tallon Griekspoor🧊 COLDTotal Games Won12.510.36+17.1%LESSLOWLorenzo Sonegoclay0.5x
45Lucrezia Stefanini🧊 COLDTotal Games Won10.58.74+16.8%LESSLOWCamila Osorioclay0.5x
46Fabian MarozsanTotal Games21.525.10+16.8%MORELOWShintaro Mochizukiclay0.5x
47Cameron Norrie🟨 WARMTotal Games21.525.07+16.6%MORELOWCamilo Ugo Carabelliclay0.5x
48Luca Van AsscheTotal Games Won12.510.46+16.3%LESSLOWTitouan Droguetclay0.5x
49Karolina Pliskova🟨 WARMTotal Games20.023.26+16.3%MORELOWOleksandra Oliynykovaclay0.5x
50Emerson Jones🟨 WARMTotal Games Won11.59.64+16.1%LESSLOWLanlana Tararudeeclay0.5x
51Yulia PutintsevaTotal Games20.523.80+16.1%MORELOWShuai Zhangclay0.5x
52Eva Lys🧊 COLDTotal Games20.523.77+16.0%MORELOWPanna Udvardyclay0.5x
53Zeynep Sonmez🟨 WARMTotal Games20.523.75+15.9%MORELOWRebecca Marinoclay0.5x
54Titouan Droguet🟨 WARMTotal Games Won12.510.54+15.7%LESSLOWLuca Van Asscheclay0.5x
55Renata Zarazua🟨 WARMTotal Games20.523.70+15.6%MORELOWTamara Korpatschclay0.5x
56Tereza Valentova🟨 WARMTotal Games Won12.510.56+15.6%LESSLOWTaylor Townsendclay0.5x
57Oleksandra OliynykovaTotal Games Won8.59.82+15.5%MORELOWKarolina Pliskovaclay0.5x
58Jan-Lennard Struff🧊 COLDTotal Games Won11.59.73+15.4%LESSLOWAlex Michelsenclay1.0x
59Elisabetta CocciarettoBreak Points Won4.55.19+15.3%MORELOWTalia Gibsonclay1.0x
60Venus Williams🧊 COLDTotal Games Won8.59.79+15.1%MORELOWKamilla Rakhimovaclay0.5x
61Alex Michelsen🧊 COLDTotal Games22.025.27+14.9%MORELOWJan-Lennard Struffclay0.5x
62Camila OsorioTotal Games20.523.52+14.7%MORELOWLucrezia Stefaniniclay0.5x
63Marton FucsovicsTotal Games Won12.510.66+14.7%LESSLOWCorentin Moutetclay0.5x
64Kamil Majchrzak⏳ RTRNTotal Games Won12.510.69+14.5%LESSLOWGael Monfilsclay1.0x
65Elena-Gabriela Ruse🟨 WARMTotal Games21.524.52+14.1%MORELOWPeyton Stearnsclay0.5x
66Hamad Medjedovic⏳ RTRNTotal Games Won12.510.76+13.9%LESSLOWJuan Manuel Cerundoloclay1.0x
67Nicolas Mejia🟨 WARMTotal Games Won11.59.93+13.7%LESSLOWMartin Landaluceclay0.5x
68Anna BlinkovaTotal Games21.524.43+13.7%MORELOWRebecca Sramkovaclay0.5x
69Cameron Norrie🟨 WARMTotal Games Won12.510.79+13.7%LESSLOWCamilo Ugo Carabelliclay0.5x
70Liudmila SamsonovaTotal Games21.524.41+13.5%MORELOWJanice Tjenclay0.5x
71Anhelina Kalinina🟨 WARMTotal Games21.524.34+13.2%MORELOWAnna Bondarclay0.5x
72Denis ShapovalovTotal Games Won12.510.86+13.2%LESSLOWZachary Svajdaclay1.0x
73Lanlana Tararudee🟨 WARMTotal Games21.524.33+13.1%MORELOWEmerson Jonesclay0.5x
74Terence AtmaneTotal Games Won11.510.01+13.0%LESSLOWJack Draperclay0.5x
75Nikola BartunkovaTotal Games Won12.510.91+12.7%LESSLOWBianca Andreescuclay0.5x
76Jenson Brooksby🧊 COLDTotal Games22.525.30+12.4%MORELOWAdam Waltonclay0.5x
77Alex Michelsen🧊 COLDTotal Games22.525.27+12.3%MORELOWJan-Lennard Struffclay0.5x
78Gabriel Diallo🧊 COLDTotal Games22.525.21+12.0%MORELOWKyrian Jacquetclay0.5x
79Teodora KostovicTotal Games Won12.511.01+11.9%LESSLOWMartyna Kubkaclay1.0x
80Marton FucsovicsTotal Games22.525.18+11.9%MORELOWCorentin Moutetclay0.5x
81Hamad Medjedovic⏳ RTRNTotal Games22.525.17+11.9%MORELOWJuan Manuel Cerundoloclay2.0x
82Zuzanna Pawlikowska⏳ RTRNTotal Games Won11.510.14+11.8%LESSLOWLia Karatanchevaclay1.0x
83Denis ShapovalovTotal Games22.525.15+11.8%MORELOWZachary Svajdaclay0.5x
84Pablo Carreno Busta🟨 WARMTotal Games22.525.14+11.7%MORELOWValentin Royerclay2.0x
85Martin LandaluceTotal Games Won12.511.07+11.4%LESSLOWNicolas Mejiaclay0.5x
86Martin LandaluceTotal Games22.525.06+11.4%MORELOWNicolas Mejiaclay0.5x
87Noma Noha Akugue🟨 WARMTotal Games21.523.92+11.3%MORELOWJulia Avdeevaclay0.5x
88Anna Bondar🟨 WARMTotal Games Won11.510.23+11.0%LESSLOWAnhelina Kalininaclay0.5x
89Laura Samson🟨 WARMTotal Games20.522.75+11.0%MORELOWMona Barthelclay1.0x
90Duncan Chan⏳ RTRNTotal Games Won10.59.35+11.0%LESSLOWThiago Agustin Tiranteclay0.5x
91Panna Udvardy🟨 WARMTotal Games Won11.510.25+10.9%LESSLOWEva Lysclay0.5x
92Sebastian BaezTotal Games Won12.511.14+10.9%LESSLOWMattia Bellucciclay1.0x
93Alana Smith🧊 COLDTotal Games Won7.58.31+10.8%MORELOWYue Yuanclay1.0x
94Mattia BellucciTotal Games22.524.91+10.7%MORELOWSebastian Baezclay2.0x
95Dalma GalfiTotal Games21.523.78+10.6%MORELOWElla Seidelclay1.0x
96Justina Mikulskyte🧊 COLDTotal Games21.523.75+10.5%MORELOWWeronika Ewaldclay1.0x
97Jack Draper⏳ RTRNTotal Games22.524.83+10.4%MORELOWTerence Atmaneclay0.5x
98Kamil Majchrzak⏳ RTRNTotal Games22.024.26+10.3%MORELOWGael Monfilsclay2.0x
99Elena MicicTotal Games Won10.59.44+10.1%LESSLOWVeronika Podrezclay1.0x
100Vendula Valdmannova🟨 WARMTotal Games Won10.59.47+9.8%LESSLOWJeline Vandrommeclay1.0x
101Aoi ItoTotal Games21.523.60+9.8%MORELOWKatherine Sebovclay0.5x
102Luca Van AsscheTotal Games22.524.69+9.8%MORELOWTitouan Droguetclay0.5x
103Elisabetta CocciarettoTotal Games Won12.511.28+9.7%LESSLOWTalia Gibsonclay0.5x
104Nikola BartunkovaTotal Games21.523.57+9.6%MORELOWBianca Andreescuclay0.5x
105Vit Kopriva🟨 WARMTotal Games22.524.59+9.3%MORELOWAlexis Galarneauclay0.5x
106Magdalena FrechTotal Games21.523.48+9.2%MORELOWLeolia Jeanjeanclay0.5x
107Elisabetta CocciarettoTotal Games22.024.01+9.1%MORELOWTalia Gibsonclay0.5x
108Jacob Fearnley⏳ RTRNTotal Games Won12.511.36+9.1%LESSLOWAdrian Mannarinoclay0.5x
109Pablo Carreno Busta🟨 WARMTotal Games Won12.511.38+9.0%LESSLOWValentin Royerclay0.5x
110Alexei PopyrinTotal Games22.524.51+8.9%MORELOWRoman Andres Burruchagaclay0.5x
111Antonia Ruzic🧊 COLDTotal Games21.523.33+8.5%MORELOWLois Boissonclay0.5x
112Weronika EwaldTotal Games Won11.510.54+8.3%LESSLOWJustina Mikulskyteclay1.0x
113Vit Kopriva🟨 WARMTotal Games Won12.511.46+8.3%LESSLOWAlexis Galarneauclay0.5x
114Daniel AltmaierTotal Games Won12.511.51+7.9%LESSLOWAleksandar Vukicclay0.5x
115Liudmila SamsonovaTotal Games Won12.511.51+7.9%LESSLOWJanice Tjenclay0.5x
116Camilo Ugo CarabelliTotal Games Won9.510.21+7.4%MORELOWCameron Norrieclay0.5x
117Jacob Fearnley⏳ RTRNTotal Games22.524.09+7.0%MORELOWAdrian Mannarinoclay0.5x
118Zeynep Sonmez🟨 WARMTotal Games Won12.511.64+6.8%LESSLOWRebecca Marinoclay0.5x
119Thiago Agustin Tirante🟨 WARMTotal Games Won12.511.65+6.8%LESSLOWDuncan Chanclay1.0x
120Aleksandar Vukic🧊 COLDTotal Games22.524.01+6.7%MORELOWDaniel Altmaierclay0.5x
121Gael Monfils🧊 COLDTotal Games Won10.59.80+6.7%LESSLOWKamil Majchrzakclay0.5x
122Tallon Griekspoor🧊 COLDTotal Games23.524.91+6.0%MORELOWLorenzo Sonegoclay1.0x
123Tallon Griekspoor🧊 COLDTotal Games23.524.91+6.0%MORELOWLorenzo Sonegoclay1.0x
124Jessica Bouzas ManeiroBreak Points Won5.55.17+6.0%LESSLOWAriana Arseneaultclay1.0x
125Kayla Cross🟨 WARMTotal Games Won9.58.94+5.9%LESSLOWKatie Boulterclay0.5x
126Fabian MarozsanTotal Games Won12.511.87+5.1%LESSLOWShintaro Mochizukiclay0.5x
127Yannick Hanfmann🟨 WARMTotal Games23.524.51+4.3%MORELOWBenjamin Bonziclay0.5x
128Yulia PutintsevaBreak Points Won5.05.19+3.9%MORELOWShuai Zhangclay1.0x
129Kamilla Rakhimova🧊 COLDBreak Points Won5.04.82+3.5%LESSLOWVenus Williamsclay1.0x
130Katarzyna Kawa🔥 HOTTotal Games21.522.21+3.3%MORELOWLinda Fruhvirtovaclay1.0x
131Rafael Jodar🟨 WARMTotal Games Won12.512.12+3.0%LESSPASSTaylor Fritzclay0.5x
132Kimberly BirrellBreak Points Won4.54.37+2.9%LESSLOWViktorija Golubicclay1.0x
133Elsa Jacquemot🧊 COLDTotal Games Won9.59.76+2.7%MORELOWCarol Young Suh Leeclay1.0x
134Taylor Fritz⏳ RTRNTotal Games23.524.02+2.2%MOREPASSRafael Jodarclay0.5x
135McCartney Kessler⏳ RTRNBreak Points Won5.05.09+1.9%MORELOWCadence Braceclay1.0x
136Sara Bejlek⏳ RTRNBreak Points Won5.05.09+1.7%MORELOWXiyu Wangclay1.0x
137Rebecca Marino⏳ RTRNTotal Games Won9.59.36+1.5%LESSLOWZeynep Sonmezclay0.5x
138Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard⏳ RTRNTotal Games25.525.24+1.0%LESSLOWBotic Van de Zandschulpclay0.5x
139Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard⏳ RTRNTotal Games25.525.24+1.0%LESSLOWBotic Van de Zandschulpclay0.5x
140Taylor Townsend🟨 WARMTotal Games Won10.510.44+0.5%LESSLOWTereza Valentovaclay0.5x
141Hubert Hurkacz🟨 WARMTotal Games23.523.50+0.0%LESSLOWMarcos Gironclay0.5x
Kalshi tennis — 0 picks · $0.00 staked
Day 1 - paper only, grade EOD before scaling · locked 2026-08-02T13:14:48.223060+00:00
#MatchPickOur PAskEdgeTierSurfaceStakeStatusP&L
PrizePicks tennis — 0 picks · $0.00 staked
Day 1 - paper only, grade EOD before scaling · locked 2026-08-02T13:14:48.141224+00:00
#PlayerStatLineOur projSideEdgeTierSurfaceStakeStatusP&L
Polymarket = retail/crypto sentiment. We can't bet there from CA, but the divergence vs Kalshi (sharp) reveals where the public is loading up. Generated 2026-08-02T10:44:03 Β· flagged threshold = Β±3.0pp Β· 0 flagged futures / 0 flagged matches.

Grand-slam futures Β· ANY 2026 Slam (Kalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM vs Polymarket per-slam aggregate)

Polymarket "any-slam" probability computed naively as 1 - product(1 - p_slam). Positive divergence = public (Polymarket) more bullish than sharp (Kalshi). Sorted by |divergence|.
PlayerSharp (Kalshi)Public (Poly)Ξ”Poly per-slam
Jack Draper Β· exact2.5%0.6%-1.9pp Β· SHARP HIGHERUS 1%
Novak Djokovic Β· exact5.0%3.8%-1.2pp Β· SHARP HIGHERUS 4%
Lorenzo Musetti Β· exact1.5%0.4%-1.1pp Β· SHARP HIGHERUS 0%
Ben Shelton Β· exact2.5%1.5%-1.0pp Β· SHARP HIGHERUS 2%
Frances Tiafoe Β· exact0.5%0.4%-0.1pp Β· SHARP HIGHERUS 0%
Alexander Bublik Β· exact0.5%0.4%-0.1pp Β· SHARP HIGHERUS 0%
Daniil Medvedev Β· exact1.5%1.4%-0.1pp Β· SHARP HIGHERUS 1%
Taylor Fritz Β· exact2.5%2.4%-0.1pp Β· SHARP HIGHERUS 2%
Karen Khachanov Β· no-match0.5%no Poly match
Felix Auger-Aliassime Β· no-match1.5%no Poly match
Casper Ruud Β· no-match1.0%no Poly match
Alex de Minaur Β· no-match1.5%no Poly match

Per-match overlaps

No active per-match overlaps right now (Polymarket tennis volume concentrates in Grand Slam futures).
!
Calibration provisional. Only 18 graded picks; verdicts not actionable until 50+.
Per-stat-type MAE (n_graded=18)
Bar width = MAE (lower = better). "INSUFFICIENT" = need more graded picks.
Total Games
n=4
Ours
PP
Us 6.45
PP 3.25
INSUFFICIENT_N
Total Games Won
n=13
Ours
PP
Us 5.11
PP 4.96
NULL
Total Tie Breaks
n=1
Ours
PP
Us 0.25
PP 0.50
INSUFFICIENT_N
Per-tier MAE
Bar width = MAE (lower = better). "INSUFFICIENT" = need more graded picks.
ELITE
n=16
Ours
PP
Us 4.94
PP 3.75
NULL
MED
n=0
Ours
PP
Us —
PP —
INSUFFICIENT_N
STRONG
n=2
Ours
PP
Us 6.75
PP 9.00
INSUFFICIENT_N
[!]
No AAR available yet.
Expected: ~/.claude/projects/.../memory/aar_tennis_<date>.md
#PlayerStatOppOpenLatestDiffAbsDirection
1Xiyu WangTotal Games WonSara Bejlek7.511.5+4.004.00UP
2Kimberly BirrellTotal Games WonViktorija Golubic13.512.5-1.001.00DOWN
3Viktorija GolubicTotal Games WonKimberly Birrell13.512.5-1.001.00DOWN
4Tallon GriekspoorTotal GamesLorenzo Sonego24.523.5-1.001.00DOWN
5Vendula ValdmannovaTotal Games WonJeline Vandromme11.510.5-1.001.00DOWN
6Jessica Bouzas ManeiroFantasy ScoreAriana Arseneault21.020.5-0.500.50DOWN
7Jessica Bouzas ManeiroFantasy ScoreAriana Arseneault23.523.0-0.500.50DOWN
8Jessica Bouzas ManeiroFantasy ScoreAriana Arseneault19.018.5-0.500.50DOWN
ATP top 50
RkPlayerCountryPtsELO overallELO clayELO grassELO hard
1Jannik SinnerITA135002167187916952062
2Carlos AlcarazESP99602070186717171956
3Alexander ZverevGER73051994186515941863
4Felix Auger AliassimeCAN44401854164215171803
5Ben SheltonUSA39201816166515611765
6Alex De MinaurAUS39051851167715901806
7Novak DjokovicSRB37601929172916361846
8Daniil MedvedevRUS37601884165915851845
9Taylor FritzUSA37201793155117221749
10Flavio CobolliITA35401833175415571655
11Alexander BublikKAZ29301785168115691703
12Jiri LeheckaCZE25751814163215741754
13Andrey RublevRUS24601804170515161683
14Casper RuudNOR24251866180515021685
15Karen KhachanovRUS23201723162215671639
16Lorenzo MusettiITA23151832176416071723
17Jakub MensikCZE23001825166114971747
18Luciano DarderiITA23001772179014661466
19Learner TienUSA22701847162215061789
20Valentin VacherotMON21451800169514671738
21Arthur FilsFRA19401892174615461771
22Alejandro Davidovich FokinaESP18601749159315451703
23Rafael JodarESP1849189317551765
24Arthur RinderknechFRA17761713157615301631
25Joao FonsecaBRA17351837167314951795
26Frances TiafoeUSA17051775164014881719
27Francisco CerundoloARG16601790170014261698
28Tommy PaulUSA16451851175815871743
29Cameron NorrieGBR15951738163115291682
30Tomas Martin EtcheverryARG15101751165614561636
31Alejandro TabiloCHI14281798170515751637
32Brandon NakashimaUSA13851713158215901660
33Ugo HumbertFRA13701715149815171697
34Matteo ArnaldiITA13361719167614551558
35Ignacio BusePER13161773173214821562
36Corentin MoutetFRA12831673156715741640
37Alexander BlockxBEL12801820168815081713
38Alex MichelsenUSA12051727152215381702
39Mariano NavoneARG11651767172214601507
40Zizou BergsBEL11501681154715211631
41Tallon GriekspoorNED11501680157615641645
42Denis ShapovalovCAN11301668148314721698
43Tomas MachacCZE11201745160215001682
44Jaume MunarESP11051695158915081635
45Juan Manuel CerundoloARG10551756175314691532
46Adrian MannarinoFRA10311565136915841569
47Marin CilicCRO9941684151316111635
48Matteo BerrettiniITA9851749168915241694
49Miomir KecmanovicSRB9801688158415001595
50Nuno BorgesPOR9701656159614931596
WTA top 50
RkPlayerCountryPtsELO overallELO clayELO grassELO hard
1Aryna SabalenkaBLR90902089180115882045
2Elena RybakinaKAZ81432040176615801972
3Iga SwiatekPOL67331957180916581852
4Jessica PegulaUSA60561979170115831901
5Amanda AnisimovaUSA58481906158016381822
6Mirra AndreevaRUS57511995186715131797
7Coco GauffUSA48791980182415191871
8Elina SvitolinaUKR43151996182415501824
9Victoria MbokoCAN36701937172615151891
10Karolina MuchovaCZE34381927160214941869
11Belinda BencicSUI33851904163615611831
12Marta KostyukUKR31571959180114491755
13Linda NoskovaCZE30541869159915831763
14Jasmine PaoliniITA26171809170115851741
15Naomi OsakaJPN25711855168815141734
16Diana ShnaiderRUS25061841170115651686
17Ekaterina AlexandrovaRUS24491711155615841662
18Sorana CirsteaROU24151919171414291797
19Iva JovicUSA23661833166716011759
20Anna KalinskayaRUS22121834163115461721
21Maja ChwalinskaPOL19961860179514831693
22Elise MertensBEL19181811161915811714
23Leylah FernandezCAN18441760156915461679
24Clara TausonDEN18001719152715201679
25Emma NavarroUSA17791759165315901613
26Madison KeysUSA17721864173215581766
27Anastasia PotapovaRUS16401855174314841640
28Marie BouzkovaCZE16311787170214761648
29Ann LiUSA16011759164614781647
30Hailey BaptisteUSA15131790166714881667
31Xin Yu WangCHN14311719153715911616
32Katerina SiniakovaCZE14221771155915781693
33Alexandra EalaPHI14161837149516651748
34Cristina BucsaESP14061705144315141684
35Liudmila SamsonovaRUS14051680159316191566
36Jelena OstapenkoLAT14041762166015341621
37Maria SakkariGRE13281729158914861658
38Jaqueline CristianROU12941767163114321698
39Mccartney KesslerUSA12891751154715831688
40Janice TjenINA12671780163415031785
41Elisabetta CocciarettoITA12601800158615771689
42Emma RaducanuGBR12411727154815771658
43Magdalena FrechPOL12381655153014341613
44Laura SiegemundGER12301691155315411592
45Barbora KrejcikovaCZE12111743155016061647
46Sara BejlekCZE12051783173614861653
47Tereza ValentovaCZE11651829172715171788
48Marketa VondrousovaCZE11331728160615781609
49Dayana YastremskaUKR11261743164015751594
50Petra MarcinkoCRO11231771174314671633
Top Kalshi edges
#1 Marco Cecchinato ELITE_LOW_N
Marco Cecchinato vs Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera on hard β€” model 45% vs market 15% (+30.0pp). ELITE_LOW_N, ask 15Β’.
#2 Andres Andrade ELITE_LOW_N
Andres Andrade vs Colton Smith on hard β€” model 49% vs market 20% (+29.4pp). ELITE_LOW_N, ask 20Β’. Form: Andres Andra=COLD | Colton Smith=WARM.
#3 Gonzalo Bueno STRONG_LOW_N
Gonzalo Bueno vs Jerome Kym on hard β€” model 45% vs market 16% (+29.0pp). STRONG_LOW_N, ask 16Β’.
#4 Adam Walton ELITE_LOW_N
Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios on hard β€” model 64% vs market 93% (+-28.5pp). ELITE_LOW_N, ask 93Β’.
#5 Florent Bax ELITE_LOW_N
Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch on hard β€” model 45% vs market 17% (+28.0pp). ELITE_LOW_N, ask 17Β’.
Top PrizePicks edges
#1 Martin Landaluce ELITE_LOW_N
Martin Landaluce LESS 0.5 Total Tie Breaks vs Jan-Lennard Struff β€” proj 0.2 (+50.0% edge). Surface: clay.
#2 Rei Sakamoto ELITE_LOW_N
Rei Sakamoto LESS 0.5 Total Tie Breaks vs Anton Matusevich β€” proj 0.2 (+49.9% edge). Surface: clay.
#3 Jack Draper STRONG_LOW_N
Jack Draper LESS 0.5 Total Tie Breaks vs Brandon Nakashima β€” proj 0.2 (+49.9% edge). Surface: clay.
Fade signals
  • Clara Tauson (RETURNING): RETURNING form tag β€” fade or fade-against.
  • Gabriel Diallo (COLD): COLD form tag β€” fade or fade-against.
  • Raphael Collignon (RETURNING): RETURNING form tag β€” fade or fade-against.
  • Maya Joint (RETURNING): RETURNING form tag β€” fade or fade-against.
  • Antonia Ruzic (COLD): COLD form tag β€” fade or fade-against.
  • Francisco Comesana (COLD): COLD form tag β€” fade or fade-against.
  • Jan Lennard Struff (COLD): COLD form tag β€” fade or fade-against.
  • Alexei Popyrin (COLD): COLD form tag β€” fade or fade-against.
Surface leans
SurfaceMatches% strong favLean
hard50.0%pick'em slate
grass1543.9%pick'em slate
ATP (current surface: grass, top 50 by composite)
RkPlayerCountryCompositeELO overallELO grassFormOff. rank
1Jannik SinnerITA2051.621671695WARM1
2Carlos AlcarazESP1923.620701717RETURNING2
3Rafael JodarESP1913.018931893WARM23
4Alexander ZverevGER1898.319941594WARM3
5Daniil MedvedevRUS1808.018841585WARM8
6Arthur FilsFRA1791.018921546WARM21
7Novak DjokovicSRB1788.619291636RETURNING7
8Tommy PaulUSA1778.518511587WARM28
9Felix Auger AliassimeCAN1777.318541517WARM4
10Adolfo Daniel VallejoPAR1775.317551755WARM72
11Alex De MinaurAUS1775.018511590NEUTRAL6
12Daniel Merida AguilarESP1767.717481748WARM82
13Yibing WuCHN1766.817471747WARM101
14Ben SheltonUSA1764.818161561WARM5
15Flavio CobolliITA1759.518331557WARM10
16Casper RuudNOR1758.518661502WARM14
17Lorenzo MusettiITA1753.518321607NEUTRAL16
18Dino PrizmicCRO1753.218131499HOT70
19Jiri LeheckaCZE1750.118141574WARM12
20Alejandro TabiloCHI1739.817981575WARM31
21Joao FonsecaBRA1737.318371495WARM25
22Alexander BlockxBEL1730.518201508WARM37
23Jakub MensikCZE1730.118251497WARM17
24Toby SamuelGBR1728.817091709WARM150
25Learner TienUSA1727.218471506NEUTRAL19
26Taylor FritzUSA1724.017931722RETURNING9
27Stefanos SakellaridisGRE1711.716921692WARM155
28Alexander BublikKAZ1709.517851569NEUTRAL11
29Rei SakamotoJPN1706.316861686WARM149
30Valentin VacherotMON1703.418001467WARM20
31Andrey RublevRUS1703.118041516NEUTRAL13
32Zachary SvajdaUSA1696.917221650NEUTRAL62
33Michael MmohUSA1695.316751675WARM195
34Alex MolcanSVK1694.017441744RETURNING102
35Nikolas Sanchez IzquierdoESP1691.416411641HOT226
36Kilian FeldbauschSUI1688.916691669WARM287
37Pablo Carreno BustaESP1684.317611484WARM71
38Buvaysar GadamauriBEL1684.116641664WARM261
39Francisco CerundoloARG1682.917901426WARM27
40Jack DraperGBR1682.218061594RETURNING112
41Mariano NavoneARG1679.817671460WARM39
42Franco RoncadelliURU1679.016591659WARM227
43Alejandro Davidovich FokinaESP1677.317491545NEUTRAL22
44Roman Andres BurruchagaARG1676.817331514WARM63
45Juan Manuel CerundoloARG1675.717561469WARM45
46Hubert HurkaczPOL1675.617141547WARM96
47Ignacio BusePER1671.017731482NEUTRAL35
48Matteo BerrettiniITA1670.617491524NEUTRAL48
49Brandon NakashimaUSA1670.417131590NEUTRAL32
50Bu YunchaoketeCHN1668.717091536WARM131
WTA (current surface: grass, top 50 by composite)
RkPlayerCountryCompositeELO overallELO grassFormOff. rank
1Aryna SabalenkaBLR1963.920891588WARM1
2Elena RybakinaKAZ1925.920401580WARM2
3Alexandra ShubladzeRUS1898.618791879WARM184
4Jeline VandrommeBEL1883.018631863WARM176
5Jessica PegulaUSA1881.719791583WARM4
6Iga SwiatekPOL1876.419571658NEUTRAL3
7Elina SvitolinaUKR1869.319961550WARM8
8Lisa PigatoITA1866.518461846WARM132
9Mirra AndreevaRUS1861.019951513WARM6
10Coco GauffUSA1850.819801519WARM7
11Akasha UrhoboUSA1843.418231823WARM180
12Tyra Caterina GrantUSA1840.518201820WARM157
13Dayeon BackKOR1825.718061806WARM279
14Kaitlin QuevedoUSA1824.718251825NEUTRAL107
15Victoria MbokoCAN1815.119371515WARM9
16Laura SamsonCZE1810.318101810NEUTRAL137
17Alice TubelloFRA1810.117901790WARM222
18Belinda BencicSUI1804.319041561WARM11
19Carol Young Suh LeePOC1801.317811781WARM192
20Jennifer RuggeriITA1801.117811781WARM213
21Marta KostyukUKR1800.219591449WARM12
22Anastasia ZolotarevaRUS1798.017781778WARM233
23Kristina LiutovaRUS1796.517771777WARM229
24Luisina GiovanniniARG1793.418431843RETURNING173
25Angela Fita BoludaESP1793.217731773WARM195
26Eva Guerrero AlvarezESP1791.517721772WARM274
27Linda NoskovaCZE1788.918691583WARM13
28Hayu KinoshitaJPN1787.317671767WARM217
29Martyna KubkaPOL1784.617651765WARM243
30Darya AstakhovaRUS1782.717631763WARM236
31Amanda AnisimovaUSA1780.319061638RETURNING5
32Samira De StefanoITA1779.417591759WARM263
33Alexandra EalaPHI1776.518371665NEUTRAL33
34Caijsa Wilda HennemannSWE1773.617741774NEUTRAL276
35Lilli TaggerAUT1770.917711771NEUTRAL86
36Claire LiuUSA1770.017501750WARM148
37Sorana CirsteaROU1767.419191429WARM18
38Lanlana TararudeeTHA1766.518601536WARM94
39Daria SnigurUKR1765.818631528WARM84
40Veronika PodrezUKR1764.218141814RETURNING145
41Lucie HavlickovaCZE1758.117381738WARM212
42Sohyun ParkKOR1756.717371737WARM270
43Julie StruplovaCZE1755.717861786COLD272
44Tatiana ProzorovaRUS1755.618061806RETURNING172
45Elizara YanevaBUL1752.517521752NEUTRAL225
46Iva JovicUSA1751.918331601NEUTRAL19
47Oleksandra OliynykovaCRO1748.018591485WARM51
48Hanyu GuoCHN1747.717281728WARM156
49Anhelina KalininaUKR1746.918421513WARM69
50Rebeka MasarovaESP1746.218131623NEUTRAL140
ATP on CLAY (top 15 by surface tilt)
PlayerΞ” ELOELO clayELO overallFormOff. rank
Zdenek Kolar+27.916171589NEUTRAL162
Gustavo Heide+25.117251700RETURNING182
Jan Choinski+19.616881668COLD105
Juan Carlos Prado Angelo+19.316481628RETURNING161
Gonzalo Bueno+17.616371619RETURNING180
Luciano Darderi+17.217901772WARM18
Valentin Royer+16.516541638WARM74
Alex Barrena+13.915711557NEUTRAL197
Jesper De Jong+12.716721659NEUTRAL83
Hugo Dellien+11.216881677RETURNING165
Timofey Skatov+11.016311620NEUTRAL175
Tomas Barrios Vera+9.116861677COLD138
Lukas Neumayer+8.916931684WARM168
Marco Trungelliti+8.616841675NEUTRAL80
Facundo Diaz Acosta+4.717031698RETURNING128
WTA on CLAY (top 15 by surface tilt)
PlayerΞ” ELOELO clayELO overallFormOff. rank
Katarzyna Kawa+26.317301704HOT143
Despina Papamichail+7.516861679NEUTRAL168
Teodora Kostovic+4.717351730NEUTRAL182
Anna Bondar+4.517791775WARM75
Simona Waltert-2.917641767WARM90
Carole Monnet-3.116621665NEUTRAL191
Julia Grabher-4.817151720NEUTRAL116
Andrea Lazaro Garcia-7.617911799WARM153
Luisina Giovannini-10.718331843RETURNING173
Veronika Erjavec-12.417391752WARM89
Darja Semenistaja-13.517781792WARM102
Mayar Sherif-13.817071720RETURNING118
Whitney Osuigwe-13.816681682WARM183
Nuria Brancaccio-14.116581672COLD177
Tamara Zidansek-15.217611777RETURNING134
ATP on GRASS (top 15 by surface tilt)
PlayerΞ” ELOELO grassELO overallFormOff. rank
Shintaro Mochizuki+54.615651511RETURNING129
Nicolas Jarry+29.415641535RETURNING189
Billy Harris+25.615411515COLD144
Adrian Mannarino+19.415841565COLD46
Roberto Bautista Agut-25.015511576COLD116
Aleksandar Vukic-31.815371569COLD100
Otto Virtanen-49.016311680NEUTRAL158
Tristan Schoolkate-50.415501600WARM123
Alex Bolt-56.115921648WARM157
August Holmgren-56.715481605WARM148
Gabriel Diallo-63.215761639COLD54
Marcos Giron-71.315701641WARM88
Zachary Svajda-72.316501722NEUTRAL62
Marin Cilic-73.216111684NEUTRAL47
Ugo Blanchet-74.714591534COLD173
WTA on GRASS (top 15 by surface tilt)
PlayerΞ” ELOELO grassELO overallFormOff. rank
Tatjana Maria-18.015981616NEUTRAL52
Beatriz Haddad Maia-64.515141578COLD108
Viktoriya Tomova-107.015001607NEUTRAL167
Ajla Tomljanovic-111.215361647NEUTRAL109
Xin Yu Wang-127.115911719NEUTRAL31
Kamilla Rakhimova-128.215761705NEUTRAL78
Linda Fruhvirtova-133.915431677NEUTRAL164
Suzan Lamens-135.014891624COLD125
Lulu Sun-136.615191655NEUTRAL110
Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva-136.914991636NEUTRAL124
Rebecca Sramkova-137.315091646NEUTRAL120
Dalma Galfi-138.315761714NEUTRAL117
Ashlyn Krueger-149.215631712NEUTRAL113
Elena Gabriela Ruse-159.415701730NEUTRAL88
Bianca Andreescu-161.615391700NEUTRAL158
ATP on HARD (top 15 by surface tilt)
PlayerΞ” ELOELO hardELO overallFormOff. rank
Hugo Gaston+45.516661620WARM119
Luca Van Assche+35.717041668WARM98
Toby Samuel+29.517381709WARM150
Gauthier Onclin+6.016131607HOT186
Clement Chidekh+5.516291624NEUTRAL200
Rinky Hijikata+3.216831680WARM106
Alexis Galarneau+2.916131610WARM187
Coleman Wong-1.916411643WARM108
Benjamin Bonzi-3.016781680WARM99
Michael Mmoh-10.916641675WARM195
Borna Gojo-11.216981709WARM178
Ethan Quinn-13.216831696WARM67
Marcos Giron-13.616281641WARM88
Sho Shimabukuro-14.616431657NEUTRAL104
Terence Atmane-14.716271641NEUTRAL53
WTA on HARD (top 15 by surface tilt)
PlayerΞ” ELOELO hardELO overallFormOff. rank
Talia Gibson+53.518321779HOT63
Hanne Vandewinkel+51.218481796HOT97
Xiaodi You+1.417301729WARM170
Kimberly Birrell-6.317511757WARM74
Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva-6.916291636WARM124
Ye Xin Ma-9.416841693WARM189
Sofia Costoulas-11.217291740WARM150
Taylah Preston-15.517961811WARM126
Polina Iatcenko-17.517211738NEUTRAL163
Himeno Sakatsume-18.417421761NEUTRAL127
Vendula Valdmannova-18.617851804WARM199
Priscilla Hon-19.116461665NEUTRAL146
Harriet Dart-23.517401763WARM160
Francisca Jorge-27.216991727RETURNING196
Hanyu Guo-27.717001728WARM156
WTA on INDOOR (top 15 by surface tilt)
PlayerΞ” ELOELO indoorELO overallFormOff. rank
Linda Klimovicova-124.116161740NEUTRAL165
Kimberly Birrell-177.115801757NEUTRAL74
Ye Xin Ma-177.915151693WARM189
Carole Monnet-194.214711665NEUTRAL191
Elvina Kalieva-209.715211731WARM135
Himeno Sakatsume-218.015431761NEUTRAL127
Emerson Jones-222.015841806WARM133
Dalma Galfi-228.314861714NEUTRAL117
Marina Bassols Ribera-229.215031732WARM144
Tamara Korpatsch-240.115341774WARM79
Mona Barthel-254.215001754WARM193
Polina Iatcenko-254.514841738NEUTRAL163
Sofia Costoulas-256.114841740WARM150
Vendula Valdmannova-269.715341804WARM199
Daria Snigur-273.915891863WARM84
⚠ Caveat: Model CLV anti-correlated with skill (Phase A finding); treat parlays as paper.
Kalshi cross-match (independent fav parlays)
LabelVarianceLegsJoint PPayoutEV/$
2-leg fav cross-tournament: Jessica Pegula + Daniel MeridaLOWJessica Pegula + Daniel Merida0.5162.97x0.533
2-leg fav cross-tournament: Jessica Pegula + Matteo BerrettLOWJessica Pegula + Matteo Berrettini0.5602.65x0.483
2-leg fav cross-tournament: Matteo Berrett + Daniel MeridaLOWMatteo Berrettini + Daniel Merida0.4422.74x0.211
Kalshi same-match (correlated)
No combos surfaced.
PrizePicks slips
LabelVarianceLegsJoint PPayoutEV/$
2-pick MED-varianceMEDPolina Kudermetova MORE 16.5 Total Games, Hugo Dellien MORE 8.5 Total Games Won0.4035.00x1.014
2-pick HIGH-varianceHIGHBrandon Nakashima LESS 9.0 Aces, Venus Williams LESS 4.5 Double Faults0.38210.00x2.824
3-pick MED-varianceMEDPolina Kudermetova MORE 16.5 Total Games, Hugo Dellien MORE 8.5 Total Games Won, Brandon Nakashima LESS 12.5 Total Games Won0.24110.00x1.409
3-pick HIGH-varianceHIGHBrandon Nakashima LESS 9.0 Aces, Venus Williams LESS 4.5 Double Faults, Alejandro Tabilo MORE 5.5 Aces0.22325.00x4.584
4-pick MED-varianceMEDPolina Kudermetova MORE 16.5 Total Games, Hugo Dellien MORE 8.5 Total Games Won, Brandon Nakashima LESS 12.5 Total Games Won, Jessica Pegula MORE 20.5 Total Games0.14418.00x1.585
4-pick HIGH-varianceHIGHBrandon Nakashima LESS 9.0 Aces, Venus Williams LESS 4.5 Double Faults, Alejandro Tabilo MORE 5.5 Aces, Darja Vidmanova MORE 4.5 Break Points Won0.12450.00x5.186
⚠ Inverted CLV signal: win rate at POSITIVE CLV (0.429) < win rate at NEGATIVE CLV (0.6562). When we beat the close, we LOSE; when we lose the close, we WIN. Model is anti-correlated with skill. Real money gated.
CLV vs Pinnacle close (overall)
n picks total1802
matched Pinnacle370 (20.5%)
mean CLV (pp)16.16
median CLV (pp)15.824
win rate at +CLV0.429
win rate at -CLV0.6562
CLV by market price bucket (FLB signal)
BucketnMean CLV (pp)
<10%3032.535
10-30%14621.473
30-50%12911.786
50-70%496.21
70-90%83.478
>90%81.915
Calibration buckets
n_total1321
ECE (pp)4.355
Brier Score0.2417
Log Loss0.6762
Predicted vs actual (10pp buckets)
BucketnPredictedActualGap (pp)
0.2-0.30200.28320.35+6.68
0.3-0.401540.35850.2792-7.93
0.4-0.505210.45130.4319-1.95
0.5-0.604870.54480.4949-4.99
0.6-0.701240.64050.5806-5.98
0.7-0.80140.71790.8571+13.93
0.8-0.9010.82321.0+17.68
SourceDB / fileLast pulledAgeRowsStatus
Kalshi KXATPMATCHtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-08-02T17:40:24.637179+00:003m1896fresh
Kalshi KXWTAMATCHtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-08-02T17:40:24.637179+00:003m1928fresh
Kalshi KXFRENCHOPENtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-08-02T17:40:24.637179+00:003m0fresh
Kalshi KXFOPENMENSINGLEtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-08-02T17:40:24.637179+00:003m0fresh
Kalshi KXATPGRANDSLAMtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-08-02T17:40:24.637179+00:003m14fresh
Kalshi KXUSOPENtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-08-02T17:40:24.637179+00:003m0fresh
Kalshi KXATPSETWINNERtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-08-02T17:40:24.637179+00:003m4382fresh
Kalshi KXATPTOTALSETStennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-08-02T17:40:24.637179+00:003m0fresh
Kalshi KXATPSETSWEEPtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-08-02T17:40:24.637179+00:003m2fresh
Kalshi KXATPGAMESPREADtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-08-02T17:40:24.637179+00:003m0fresh
Kalshi KXATPEXACTMATCHtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-08-02T17:40:24.637179+00:003m4288fresh
Kalshi KXWTADOUBLEStennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-08-02T17:40:24.637179+00:003m292fresh
Kalshi KXATP1RANKtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-08-02T17:40:24.637179+00:003m16fresh
elo last computedtennis.sqlite2026-06-21T17:36:52+00:001008.12h20430stale
rankings last pulledtennis.sqlite2026-06-15T17:40:18+00:001152.06h11348stale
rankings atp latest datetennis.sqlite2026-06-081337.74h&mdash;stale
rankings wta latest datetennis.sqlite2026-06-081337.74h&mdash;stale
mirror atp scheduletennis.sqlite2026-08-02T17:42:18.697705+00:001m269fresh
h2h last computedtennis.sqlite2026-05-17T10:11:57.514615+00:001855.54h&mdash;stale
h2h n pairstennis.sqlite190184missing&mdash;missing
last player db runtennis.sqlite1785692562missing&mdash;missing
results last_runtennis_results.sqlite[2026-08-02T17:42:21.391996+00:00] 2026-08-02T17:42:19.119159+00:00; dates=['20260801']; rows=387; resolved=370missing&mdash;missing
pp_edges CSVpp_edges_tennis_2026-08-02.csv2026-08-02T17:43:00.131182+00:001m&mdash;fresh
kalshi edges JSONtennis_kalshi_edges_2026-08-02.json2026-08-02T17:42:52.926510+00:001m&mdash;fresh
paper trades PPpaper_trades_pp_tennis_2026-08-02.json2026-08-02T17:43:45.760933+00:000m&mdash;fresh
paper trades Kalshipaper_trades_kalshi_tennis_2026-08-02.json2026-08-02T17:43:46.311778+00:000m&mdash;fresh
daily payloaddaily_tennis_2026-08-02.json2026-08-02T17:43:50.447212+00:000m&mdash;fresh
PP movementpp_line_movement_tennis_2026-08-02.csv2026-08-02T17:43:49.782017+00:000m&mdash;fresh
PP calibrationpp_calibration_tennis.json2026-08-02T17:43:49.648922+00:000m&mdash;fresh