Kalshi KXATPMATCH 30m · 1994rKalshi KXWTAMATCH 30m · 1948rKalshi KXFRENCHOPEN 30mKalshi KXFOPENMENSINGLE 30mKalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM 30m · 13rKalshi KXUSOPEN 30mKalshi KXATPSETWINNER 30m · 4402rKalshi KXATPTOTALSETS 30mKalshi KXATPSETSWEEP 30m · 1rKalshi KXATPGAMESPREAD 30mKalshi KXATPEXACTMATCH 30m · 4262rKalshi KXWTADOUBLES 30m · 300rKalshi KXATP1RANK 30m · 16relo last computed 63d · 20430rrankings last pulled 69d · 11348rrankings atp latest date 77drankings wta latest date 77dmirror atp schedule 30mh2h last computed 98dh2h n pairs missinglast player db run missingresults last_run missingpp_edges CSV 10.7hkalshi edges JSON 28mpaper trades PP 0mpaper trades Kalshi 0mdaily payload 10.6hPP movement 10.6hPP calibration 10.6h
Matches today
0
scheduled
ELITE edges
0
across Kalshi + PP
STRONG edges
1
tier 2
MED edges
0
tier 3
Paper locks
1
Kalshi + PP
Real Money YTD
-$10.00
paper-gate restored
Qualifying skipped
0
filtered out today
Last refresh
05:30
2026-08-24 UTC
🏆 Best Bet (main-draw)
No main-draw Kalshi pick survived qualifying filter today.
🎯 Safest (P ≥ 65%)
Aleksandar Kovacevic
68%
Heavy main-draw favorite · SKIP
Edge +1.8pp
Ask 66¢
Ask 66¢
💎 Biggest Payout (ELITE)
No ELITE main-draw longshot today.
No matches loaded.
Run
Run
python mirror_atp_schedule.py to refresh.| # | Match | Our pick | Our P | Mkt P | Ask | Edge | Tier | Decision | Vol 24h | Surface | Round | EV/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clement Chidekh vs Federico Coria | Federico Coria⏳ RTRN | 44.5% | 11.0% | 11¢ | +33.5pp | LOW | PAPER | 1581 | hard | — | +0.335 |
| 2 | Taro Daniel vs Andrew Johnson | Andrew Johnson | 46.2% | 13.0% | 13¢ | +33.2pp | LOW | PAPER | 656 | hard | — | +0.332 |
| 3 | Jennifer Ruggeri vs Sofia Costoulas | Jennifer Ruggeri🟨 WARM | 42.9% | 11.0% | 11¢ | +31.9pp | LOW | PAPER | 317 | hard | — | +0.319 |
| 4 | Tristan Schoolkate vs Jack Secord | Jack Secord | 44.6% | 13.0% | 13¢ | +31.6pp | LOW | PAPER | 779 | hard | — | +0.316 |
| 5 | Yeon Woo Ku vs Astra Sharma | Astra Sharma⏳ RTRN | 52.4% | 21.0% | 21¢ | +31.4pp | LOW | PAPER | 360 | hard | — | +0.314 |
| 6 | Guy Den Ouden vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri | Genaro Alberto Olivieri⏳ RTRN | 50.6% | 20.0% | 20¢ | +30.6pp | LOW | PAPER | 820 | hard | — | +0.306 |
| 7 | Lucrezia Stefanini vs Ayla Aksu | Ayla Aksu🟨 WARM | 50.4% | 20.0% | 20¢ | +30.4pp | LOW | PAPER | 61 | hard | — | +0.304 |
| 8 | Alevtina Ibragimova vs Rebecca Sramkova | Alevtina Ibragimova🟨 WARM | 47.6% | 19.0% | 19¢ | +28.6pp | LOW | PAPER | 205 | hard | — | +0.286 |
| 9 | Elizabeth Mandlik vs Kristina Penickova | Kristina Penickova⏳ RTRN | 49.7% | 22.0% | 22¢ | +27.7pp | LOW | PAPER | 13 | hard | — | +0.277 |
| 10 | Lucia Bronzetti vs Luisina Giovannini | Luisina Giovannini⏳ RTRN | 42.8% | 16.0% | 16¢ | +26.8pp | LOW | PAPER | 486 | hard | — | +0.268 |
| 11 | Moez Echargui vs Hugo Dellien | Hugo Dellien⏳ RTRN | 61.1% | 35.0% | 35¢ | +26.1pp | LOW | PAPER | 12 | hard | — | +0.261 |
| 12 | Elias Ymer vs Franco Roncadelli | Franco Roncadelli🟨 WARM | 41.0% | 15.0% | 15¢ | +26.0pp | LOW | PAPER | 3618 | hard | — | +0.260 |
| 13 | Elvina Kalieva vs Kristina Mladenovic | Kristina Mladenovic⏳ RTRN | 38.9% | 13.0% | 13¢ | +25.9pp | LOW | PAPER | 902 | hard | — | +0.259 |
| 14 | Mark Lajal vs Jordan Lee | Jordan Lee | 40.5% | 15.0% | 15¢ | +25.5pp | LOW | PAPER | 12172 | hard | — | +0.255 |
| 15 | Grigor Dimitrov vs Lorenzo Giustino | Lorenzo Giustino⏳ RTRN | 38.2% | 13.0% | 13¢ | +25.2pp | LOW | PAPER | 806 | hard | — | +0.253 |
| 16 | Jacob Fearnley vs Roberto Carballes Baena | Roberto Carballes Baena⏳ RTRN | 43.0% | 18.0% | 18¢ | +25.0pp | LOW | PAPER | 842 | hard | — | +0.250 |
| 17 | Polina Iatcenko vs Julie Struplova | Julie Struplova🧊 COLD | 34.7% | 11.0% | 11¢ | +23.7pp | LOW | PAPER | 799 | hard | — | +0.237 |
| 18 | Guiomar Maristany Zuleta de Reales vs Jodie Burrage | Guiomar Maristany Zuleta de Reales | 52.6% | 29.0% | 29¢ | +23.6pp | LOW | PAPER | 377 | hard | — | +0.236 |
| 19 | Kyrian Jacquet vs Lautaro Midon | Lautaro Midon⏳ RTRN | 38.3% | 15.0% | 15¢ | +23.3pp | LOW | PAPER | 672 | hard | — | +0.233 |
| 20 | Rio Noguchi vs Yunchaokete Bu | Rio Noguchi🟨 WARM | 38.1% | 15.0% | 15¢ | +23.1pp | LOW | PAPER | 409 | hard | — | +0.231 |
| 21 | Eva Vedder vs Bianca Andreescu | Eva Vedder🟨 WARM | 38.8% | 16.0% | 16¢ | +22.8pp | LOW | PAPER | 115 | hard | — | +0.228 |
| 22 | Marco Cecchinato vs Liam Broady | Marco Cecchinato | 48.5% | 26.0% | 26¢ | +22.5pp | LOW | PAPER | 942 | hard | — | +0.225 |
| 23 | Jazmin Ortenzi vs Himeno Sakatsume | Jazmin Ortenzi🟨 WARM | 37.9% | 16.0% | 16¢ | +21.9pp | LOW | PAPER | 376 | hard | — | +0.219 |
| 24 | Polona Hercog vs Moyuka Uchijima | Polona Hercog🟨 WARM | 41.9% | 20.0% | 20¢ | +21.9pp | LOW | PAPER | 6 | hard | — | +0.219 |
| 25 | Harriet Dart vs Jordyn Hazelitt | Jordyn Hazelitt | 33.7% | 12.0% | 12¢ | +21.6pp | LOW | PAPER | 675 | hard | — | +0.216 |
| 26 | Mackenzie McDonald vs Stefano Napolitano | Stefano Napolitano⏳ RTRN | 42.2% | 21.0% | 21¢ | +21.2pp | LOW | PAPER | 568 | hard | — | +0.212 |
| 27 | Lin Zhu vs Angela Fita Boluda | Angela Fita Boluda🟨 WARM | 32.2% | 11.0% | 11¢ | +21.2pp | LOW | PAPER | 1394 | hard | — | +0.212 |
| 28 | Mary Stoiana vs Harmony Tan | Harmony Tan🟨 WARM | 50.2% | 29.0% | 29¢ | +21.2pp | LOW | PAPER | 0 | hard | — | +0.212 |
| 29 | Despina Papamichail vs Laura Pigossi | Despina Papamichail | 40.8% | 20.0% | 20¢ | +20.8pp | LOW | PAPER | 0 | hard | — | +0.208 |
| 30 | Titouan Droguet vs Daniel Rincon | Daniel Rincon⏳ RTRN | 38.1% | 18.0% | 18¢ | +20.1pp | LOW | PAPER | 6099 | hard | — | +0.201 |
| 31 | Hugo Gaston vs Guido Ivan Justo | Guido Ivan Justo⏳ RTRN | 33.8% | 14.0% | 14¢ | +19.8pp | LOW | PAPER | 560 | hard | — | +0.198 |
| 32 | Xiaodi You vs Qinwen Zheng | Xiaodi You🟨 WARM | 30.6% | 11.0% | 11¢ | +19.6pp | LOW | PAPER | 1311 | hard | — | +0.196 |
| 33 | Nuria Brancaccio vs Francesca Jones | Nuria Brancaccio🧊 COLD | 35.2% | 16.0% | 16¢ | +19.2pp | LOW | PAPER | 299 | hard | — | +0.192 |
| 34 | Janice Tjen vs Dayana Yastremska | Dayana Yastremska | 59.4% | 41.0% | 41¢ | +18.4pp | LOW | PAPER | 1981 | hard | — | +0.184 |
| 35 | Coleman Wong vs Elmer Moller | Elmer Moller | 40.6% | 23.0% | 23¢ | +17.6pp | LOW | PAPER | 6452 | hard | — | +0.176 |
| 36 | Kayla Cross vs Robin Montgomery | Kayla Cross🧊 COLD | 37.4% | 20.0% | 20¢ | +17.4pp | LOW | PAPER | 40 | hard | — | +0.174 |
| 37 | Michael Antonius vs Henry Searle | Michael Antonius🧊 COLD | 41.9% | 25.0% | 25¢ | +16.9pp | LOW | PAPER | 400 | hard | — | +0.169 |
| 38 | Erika Andreeva vs Mariam Bolkvadze | Mariam Bolkvadze🟨 WARM | 49.8% | 33.0% | 33¢ | +16.8pp | LOW | PAPER | 662 | hard | — | +0.167 |
| 39 | Arthur Gea vs Sumit Nagal | Sumit Nagal⏳ RTRN | 34.7% | 18.0% | 18¢ | +16.7pp | LOW | PAPER | 320 | hard | — | +0.167 |
| 40 | Keegan Smith vs Andrea Pellegrino | Andrea Pellegrino | 56.6% | 40.0% | 40¢ | +16.6pp | LOW | PAPER | 7 | hard | — | +0.166 |
| 41 | Roman Safiullin vs Hugo Grenier | Hugo Grenier⏳ RTRN | 40.4% | 24.0% | 24¢ | +16.4pp | LOW | PAPER | 138 | hard | — | +0.164 |
| 42 | Yue Yuan vs Hanyu Guo | Hanyu Guo🟨 WARM | 55.2% | 39.0% | 39¢ | +16.2pp | LOW | PAPER | 234 | hard | — | +0.162 |
| 43 | Yexin Ma vs Clara Burel | Yexin Ma🟨 WARM | 45.2% | 29.0% | 29¢ | +16.2pp | LOW | PAPER | 217 | hard | — | +0.162 |
| 44 | Julieta Pareja vs Kayla Day | Julieta Pareja🔥 HOT | 53.9% | 38.0% | 38¢ | +15.9pp | LOW | PAPER | 834 | hard | — | +0.159 |
| 45 | Linda Klimovicova vs Lisa Pigato | Lisa Pigato🟨 WARM | 53.8% | 38.0% | 38¢ | +15.8pp | LOW | PAPER | 1465 | hard | — | +0.159 |
| 46 | Timofey Skatov vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly | Timofey Skatov | 61.4% | 46.0% | 46¢ | +15.4pp | LOW | PAPER | 272 | hard | — | +0.154 |
| 47 | Tom Gentzsch vs Pol Martin Tiffon | Pol Martin Tiffon🟨 WARM | 53.2% | 38.0% | 38¢ | +15.2pp | LOW | PAPER | 1870 | hard | — | +0.152 |
| 48 | Luca Nardi vs Federico Cina | Luca Nardi⏳ RTRN | 51.2% | 36.0% | 36¢ | +15.2pp | LOW | PAPER | 7 | hard | — | +0.152 |
| 49 | Toby Samuel vs Francesco Maestrelli | Francesco Maestrelli | 36.2% | 22.0% | 22¢ | +14.2pp | LOW | PAPER | 438 | hard | — | +0.142 |
| 50 | Clara Tauson vs Renata Zarazua | Renata Zarazua🧊 COLD | 40.9% | 27.0% | 27¢ | +13.9pp | LOW | PAPER | 5639 | hard | — | +0.139 |
| 51 | Lina Gjorcheska vs Mai Hontama | Lina Gjorcheska⏳ RTRN | 40.8% | 27.0% | 27¢ | +13.8pp | LOW | PAPER | 10 | hard | — | +0.138 |
| 52 | Elina Avanesyan vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia | Andrea Lazaro Garcia🟨 WARM | 47.8% | 34.0% | 34¢ | +13.8pp | LOW | PAPER | 260 | hard | — | +0.138 |
| 53 | Borna Gojo vs Zdenek Kolar | Zdenek Kolar | 35.6% | 22.0% | 22¢ | +13.6pp | LOW | PAPER | 29 | hard | — | +0.136 |
| 54 | Mayar Sherif Ahmed Abdelaziz vs Oleksandra Oliynykova | Mayar Sherif Ahmed Abdelaziz⏳ RTRN | 35.6% | 22.0% | 22¢ | +13.6pp | LOW | PAPER | 1381820 | hard | — | +0.136 |
| 55 | Harry Wendelken vs Stefano Travaglia | Stefano Travaglia | 50.5% | 37.0% | 37¢ | +13.5pp | LOW | PAPER | 295 | hard | — | +0.135 |
| 56 | Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Lola Radivojevic | Kajsa Rinaldo Persson⏳ RTRN | 48.4% | 35.0% | 35¢ | +13.4pp | LOW | PAPER | 212 | hard | — | +0.134 |
| 57 | James Duckworth vs Quinn Vandecasteele | Quinn Vandecasteele🟨 WARM | 37.3% | 24.0% | 24¢ | +13.3pp | LOW | PAPER | 922 | hard | — | +0.133 |
| 58 | Vitaliy Sachko vs Gauthier Onclin | Vitaliy Sachko🧊 COLD | 40.9% | 28.0% | 28¢ | +12.9pp | LOW | PAPER | 5 | hard | — | +0.129 |
| 59 | Martin Damm Jr vs Abdullah Shelbayh | Abdullah Shelbayh⏳ RTRN | 41.3% | 29.0% | 29¢ | +12.3pp | LOW | PAPER | 106 | hard | — | +0.123 |
| 60 | Cristian Garin vs Spencer Johnson | Cristian Garin | 54.1% | 42.0% | 42¢ | +12.1pp | LOW | PAPER | 3000 | hard | — | +0.121 |
| 61 | Madison Brengle vs Anastasia Gasanova | Madison Brengle🧊 COLD | 47.9% | 36.0% | 36¢ | +11.9pp | LOW | PAPER | 88 | hard | — | +0.119 |
| 62 | Juan Pablo Varillas vs Luka Pavlovic | Juan Pablo Varillas⏳ RTRN | 40.7% | 29.0% | 29¢ | +11.7pp | LOW | PAPER | 560 | hard | — | +0.117 |
| 63 | Lorenzo Sonego vs Vit Kopriva | Vit Kopriva | 52.7% | 41.0% | 41¢ | +11.7pp | LOW | PAPER | 25654 | hard | — | +0.117 |
| 64 | Marcos Giron vs Dhakshineswar Suresh | Dhakshineswar Suresh⏳ RTRN | 41.3% | 30.0% | 30¢ | +11.3pp | LOW | PAPER | 2898 | hard | — | +0.113 |
| 65 | Gonzalo Bueno vs Billy Harris | Gonzalo Bueno⏳ RTRN | 43.3% | 32.0% | 32¢ | +11.3pp | LOW | PAPER | 123 | hard | — | +0.113 |
| 66 | Bernard Tomic vs Lloyd Harris | Bernard Tomic | 41.3% | 30.0% | 30¢ | +11.3pp | LOW | PAPER | 201 | hard | — | +0.113 |
| 67 | Whitney Osuigwe vs Mona Barthel | Whitney Osuigwe | 42.8% | 32.0% | 32¢ | +10.8pp | LOW | PAPER | 175 | hard | — | +0.108 |
| 68 | Polina Kudermetova vs Linda Fruhvirtova | Linda Fruhvirtova | 42.4% | 32.0% | 32¢ | +10.4pp | LOW | PAPER | 1200 | hard | — | +0.104 |
| 69 | Dalibor Svrcina vs Felipe Meligeni Alves | Felipe Meligeni Alves⏳ RTRN | 36.2% | 26.0% | 26¢ | +10.2pp | LOW | PAPER | 512 | hard | — | +0.102 |
| 70 | Tamara Zidansek vs Laura Samson | Tamara Zidansek⏳ RTRN | 50.2% | 40.0% | 40¢ | +10.2pp | LOW | PAPER | 3 | hard | — | +0.102 |
| 71 | Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Joanna Garland | Leyre Romero Gormaz🟨 WARM | 50.1% | 40.0% | 40¢ | +10.1pp | LOW | PAPER | 31 | hard | — | +0.101 |
| 72 | Jerome Kym vs Dan Added | Dan Added🧊 COLD | 29.9% | 20.0% | 20¢ | +9.9pp | LOW | PAPER | 1030 | hard | — | +0.099 |
| 73 | Savannah Broadus vs Tyra Caterina Grant | Savannah Broadus⏳ RTRN | 44.2% | 35.0% | 35¢ | +9.2pp | LOW | PAPER | 0 | hard | — | +0.093 |
| 74 | Laslo Djere vs Alexandre Muller | Alexandre Muller | 49.2% | 40.0% | 40¢ | +9.2pp | LOW | PAPER | 317 | hard | — | +0.092 |
| 75 | Sebastian Ofner vs Kei Nishikori | Sebastian Ofner🔥 HOT | 49.0% | 40.0% | 40¢ | +9.0pp | LOW | PAPER | 100 | hard | — | +0.090 |
| 76 | Alejandro Moro Canas vs Remy Bertola | Remy Bertola | 47.9% | 39.0% | 39¢ | +8.9pp | LOW | PAPER | 256 | hard | — | +0.089 |
| 77 | Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Noma Noha Akugue | Noma Noha Akugue🔥 HOT | 49.9% | 41.0% | 41¢ | +8.9pp | LOW | PAPER | 4 | hard | — | +0.089 |
| 78 | Nishesh Basavareddy vs Moise Kouame | Nishesh Basavareddy🟨 WARM | 63.7% | 55.0% | 55¢ | +8.7pp | LOW | PAPER | 328 | hard | — | +0.087 |
| 79 | Hayu Kinoshita vs Darja Semenistaja | Hayu Kinoshita🟨 WARM | 50.6% | 42.0% | 42¢ | +8.6pp | LOW | PAPER | 0 | hard | — | +0.086 |
| 80 | Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Seongchan Hong | Seongchan Hong⏳ RTRN | 48.4% | 40.0% | 40¢ | +8.4pp | LOW | PAPER | 19 | hard | — | +0.084 |
| 81 | Ugo Blanchet vs Otto Virtanen | Ugo Blanchet | 36.3% | 28.0% | 28¢ | +8.3pp | LOW | PAPER | 68 | hard | — | +0.083 |
| 82 | Oliver Crawford vs Lukas Neumayer | Lukas Neumayer🟨 WARM | 51.1% | 43.0% | 43¢ | +8.1pp | LOW | PAPER | 1189 | hard | — | +0.081 |
| 83 | Iryna Shymanovich vs Rebeka Masarova | Iryna Shymanovich | 39.9% | 32.0% | 32¢ | +7.9pp | LOW | PAPER | 28 | hard | — | +0.079 |
| 84 | Janae Preston vs Nao Hibino | Janae Preston🟨 WARM | 40.9% | 33.0% | 33¢ | +7.9pp | LOW | PAPER | 3 | hard | — | +0.079 |
| 85 | Sebastian Gorzny vs Cruz Hewitt | Sebastian Gorzny | 53.8% | 46.0% | 46¢ | +7.8pp | LOW | PAPER | 2121 | hard | — | +0.077 |
| 86 | August Holmgren vs Andrea Guerrieri | Andrea Guerrieri🟨 WARM | 49.7% | 42.0% | 42¢ | +7.7pp | LOW | PAPER | 372 | hard | — | +0.077 |
| 87 | Adam Walton vs Jesper De Jong | Jesper De Jong | 45.6% | 38.0% | 38¢ | +7.6pp | LOW | PAPER | 8991 | hard | — | +0.076 |
| 88 | Veronika Podrez vs Caroline Dolehide | Veronika Podrez⏳ RTRN | 40.6% | 33.0% | 33¢ | +7.6pp | LOW | PAPER | 83 | hard | — | +0.076 |
| 89 | Andre Ilagan vs Tristan Boyer | Andre Ilagan | 52.5% | 45.0% | 45¢ | +7.5pp | LOW | PAPER | 565 | hard | — | +0.075 |
| 90 | Kamil Majchrzak vs Benjamin Bonzi | Benjamin Bonzi🟨 WARM | 47.5% | 40.0% | 40¢ | +7.5pp | LOW | PAPER | 6561 | hard | — | +0.075 |
| 91 | Maks Kasnikowski vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | Maks Kasnikowski🟨 WARM | 41.3% | 34.0% | 34¢ | +7.3pp | LOW | PAPER | 5 | hard | — | +0.073 |
| 92 | Martyna Kubka vs Annika Penickova | Annika Penickova🟨 WARM | 37.3% | 30.0% | 30¢ | +7.3pp | LOW | PAPER | 0 | hard | — | +0.073 |
| 93 | Carole Monnet vs Anouk Koevermans | Carole Monnet | 44.0% | 37.0% | 37¢ | +7.0pp | LOW | PAPER | 196 | hard | — | +0.070 |
| 94 | Katie Swan vs Katrina Scott | Katrina Scott🧊 COLD | 47.0% | 40.0% | 40¢ | +7.0pp | LOW | PAPER | 2 | hard | — | +0.070 |
| 95 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luka Mikrut | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo🔥 HOT | 44.9% | 38.0% | 38¢ | +6.9pp | LOW | PAPER | 2 | hard | — | +0.069 |
| 96 | Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Katarzyna Kawa | Ekaterine Gorgodze🧊 COLD | 45.8% | 39.0% | 39¢ | +6.8pp | LOW | PAPER | 37 | hard | — | +0.068 |
| 97 | Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Francisca Jorge | Francisca Jorge⏳ RTRN | 46.8% | 40.0% | 40¢ | +6.8pp | LOW | PAPER | 138 | hard | — | +0.068 |
| 98 | Alycia Parks vs Petra Marcinko | Alycia Parks | 52.8% | 46.0% | 46¢ | +6.8pp | LOW | PAPER | 697 | hard | — | +0.068 |
| 99 | Jack Pinnington Jones vs Trevor Svajda | Jack Pinnington Jones🧊 COLD | 45.8% | 39.0% | 39¢ | +6.8pp | LOW | PAPER | 295 | hard | — | +0.068 |
| 100 | Henri Squire vs David Jorda Sanchis | David Jorda Sanchis🧊 COLD | 41.6% | 35.0% | 35¢ | +6.6pp | LOW | PAPER | 8 | hard | — | +0.066 |
| 101 | Zsombor Piros vs Max Alcala Gurri | Max Alcala Gurri⏳ RTRN | 32.2% | 26.0% | 26¢ | +6.2pp | LOW | PAPER | 232 | hard | — | +0.062 |
| 102 | Jurij Rodionov vs Kimmer Coppejans | Kimmer Coppejans🟨 WARM | 43.2% | 37.0% | 37¢ | +6.2pp | LOW | PAPER | 1161 | hard | — | +0.062 |
| 103 | Clervie Ngounoue vs Carson Branstine | Carson Branstine⏳ RTRN | 57.1% | 51.0% | 51¢ | +6.1pp | LOW | PAPER | 1479 | hard | — | +0.061 |
| 104 | Varvara Lepchenko vs Gabriela Knutson | Varvara Lepchenko | 50.0% | 44.0% | 44¢ | +6.0pp | LOW | PAPER | 9 | hard | — | +0.060 |
| 105 | Nicolas Mejia vs Liam Draxl | Nicolas Mejia | 51.0% | 45.0% | 45¢ | +6.0pp | LOW | PAPER | 194 | hard | — | +0.060 |
| 106 | Arantxa Rus vs Teodora Kostovic | Arantxa Rus🧊 COLD | 39.5% | 34.0% | 34¢ | +5.5pp | LOW | PAPER | 3 | hard | — | +0.055 |
| 107 | Shintaro Mochizuki vs Daniel Milavsky | Daniel Milavsky⏳ RTRN | 48.4% | 43.0% | 43¢ | +5.4pp | LOW | PAPER | 85 | hard | — | +0.054 |
| 108 | Emerson Jones vs Suzan Lamens | Suzan Lamens | 47.2% | 42.0% | 42¢ | +5.2pp | LOW | PAPER | 0 | hard | — | +0.052 |
| 109 | Maria Carle vs Vendula Valdmannova | Maria Carle🧊 COLD | 35.2% | 30.0% | 30¢ | +5.2pp | LOW | PAPER | 16 | hard | — | +0.052 |
| 110 | Rei Sakamoto vs Zhizhen Zhang | Rei Sakamoto | 54.8% | 50.0% | 50¢ | +4.8pp | LOW | PAPER | 3178 | hard | — | +0.048 |
| 111 | Marina Bassols Ribera vs Darya Astakhova | Darya Astakhova🟨 WARM | 41.8% | 37.0% | 37¢ | +4.8pp | LOW | PAPER | 151 | hard | — | +0.048 |
| 112 | Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Jenson Brooksby | Jenson Brooksby | 41.8% | 37.0% | 37¢ | +4.8pp | LOW | PAPER | 782 | hard | — | +0.048 |
| 113 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Alex Bolt | Alex Bolt🟨 WARM | 45.6% | 41.0% | 41¢ | +4.6pp | LOW | PAPER | 124 | hard | — | +0.046 |
| 114 | Pedro Martinez vs Daniil Glinka | Pedro Martinez | 58.4% | 54.0% | 54¢ | +4.4pp | LOW | PAPER | 547 | hard | — | +0.044 |
| 115 | Elizara Yaneva vs Lucie Havlickova | Lucie Havlickova🟨 WARM | 43.9% | 40.0% | 40¢ | +3.9pp | LOW | PAPER | 733 | hard | — | +0.039 |
| 116 | Donna Vekic vs Diane Parry | Diane Parry | 44.8% | 41.0% | 41¢ | +3.8pp | LOW | PAPER | 633 | hard | — | +0.038 |
| 117 | Daniel Altmaier vs Francisco Comesana | Daniel Altmaier🧊 COLD | 52.8% | 49.0% | 49¢ | +3.8pp | LOW | PAPER | 534 | hard | — | +0.038 |
| 118 | Jan Choinski vs Mees Rottgering | Jan Choinski🟨 WARM | 62.1% | 59.0% | 59¢ | +3.1pp | LOW | PAPER | 4787 | hard | — | +0.031 |
| 119 | Fiona Ferro vs Rebecca Marino | Rebecca Marino⏳ RTRN | 44.9% | 42.0% | 42¢ | +2.9pp | LOW | SKIP | 672 | hard | — | +0.029 |
| 120 | Francesco Passaro vs Felix Gill | Francesco Passaro⏳ RTRN | 51.7% | 49.0% | 49¢ | +2.7pp | LOW | SKIP | 208 | hard | — | +0.027 |
| 121 | Storm Hunter vs Maddison Inglis | Storm Hunter🟨 WARM | 59.7% | 57.0% | 57¢ | +2.7pp | LOW | PAPER | 2 | hard | — | +0.027 |
| 122 | Henrique Rocha vs Michael Mmoh | Michael Mmoh🟨 WARM | 52.1% | 50.0% | 50¢ | +2.1pp | LOW | PAPER | 554 | hard | — | +0.021 |
| 123 | Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Felix Balshaw | Aleksandar Kovacevic | 67.8% | 66.0% | 66¢ | +1.8pp | LOW | SKIP | 1276 | hard | — | +0.018 |
| 124 | Aliona Falei vs Elena Pridankina | Elena Pridankina | 51.7% | 50.0% | 50¢ | +1.7pp | LOW | SKIP | 195 | hard | — | +0.017 |
| 125 | Braden Shick vs Clement Tabur | Clement Tabur | 57.6% | 56.0% | 56¢ | +1.6pp | LOW | SKIP | 214 | hard | — | +0.016 |
| 126 | Claire Liu vs Heather Watson | Heather Watson🧊 COLD | 39.6% | 38.0% | 38¢ | +1.6pp | LOW | SKIP | 771 | hard | — | +0.015 |
| 127 | Christopher O'Connell vs Stefanos Sakellaridis | Stefanos Sakellaridis🟨 WARM | 45.5% | 44.0% | 44¢ | +1.5pp | LOW | SKIP | 202 | hard | — | +0.015 |
| 128 | Soonwoo Kwon vs Dusan Lajovic | Dusan Lajovic | 40.4% | 39.0% | 39¢ | +1.4pp | LOW | SKIP | 640 | hard | — | +0.014 |
| 129 | Akasha Urhobo vs Dominika Salkova | Dominika Salkova🔥 HOT | 63.4% | 62.0% | 62¢ | +1.4pp | LOW | SKIP | 36 | hard | — | +0.014 |
| 130 | Jeline Vandromme vs Greet Minnen | Jeline Vandromme🟨 WARM | 51.3% | 50.0% | 50¢ | +1.3pp | LOW | SKIP | 9652 | hard | — | +0.013 |
| 131 | Federico Agustin Gomez vs Aziz Dougaz | Federico Agustin Gomez🧊 COLD | 52.1% | 51.0% | 51¢ | +1.1pp | LOW | SKIP | 2875 | hard | — | +0.011 |
| 132 | Ann Li vs Camila Osorio | Ann Li🧊 COLD | 49.0% | 50.0% | 50¢ | -1.0pp | LOW | SKIP | 1687 | hard | — | -0.010 |
| 133 | Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Raul Brancaccio | Thiago Seyboth Wild🟨 WARM | 58.0% | 57.0% | 57¢ | +1.0pp | LOW | SKIP | 667 | hard | — | +0.010 |
| 134 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo vs Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo⏳ RTRN | 45.0% | 44.0% | 44¢ | +0.9pp | LOW | SKIP | 458 | hard | — | +0.010 |
| 135 | Alexis Galarneau vs Colton Smith | Colton Smith🧊 COLD | 40.1% | 41.0% | 41¢ | -0.9pp | LOW | SKIP | 259 | hard | — | -0.009 |
| 136 | Vilius Gaubas vs Kilian Feldbausch | Kilian Feldbausch🟨 WARM | 43.3% | 44.0% | 44¢ | -0.7pp | LOW | SKIP | 3253 | hard | — | -0.007 |
| 137 | Viktoria Hruncakova vs Julia Riera | Viktoria Hruncakova🟨 WARM | 44.3% | 45.0% | 45¢ | -0.7pp | LOW | SKIP | 0 | hard | — | -0.007 |
| 138 | Julia Avdeeva vs Katherine Sebov | Julia Avdeeva⏳ RTRN | 50.6% | 50.0% | 50¢ | +0.6pp | LOW | SKIP | 0 | hard | — | +0.006 |
| 139 | Alina Charaeva vs Susan Bandecchi | Alina Charaeva🔥 HOT | 60.6% | 60.0% | 60¢ | +0.6pp | LOW | SKIP | 2 | hard | — | +0.006 |
| 140 | Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Frederico Ferreira Silva | Frederico Ferreira Silva🧊 COLD | 45.4% | 46.0% | 46¢ | -0.6pp | LOW | SKIP | 2535 | hard | — | -0.006 |
| 141 | Priscilla Hon vs Alice Tubello | Alice Tubello🟨 WARM | 43.5% | 44.0% | 44¢ | -0.5pp | LOW | SKIP | 57 | hard | — | -0.005 |
| 142 | Ayana Akli vs Mia Ristic | Mia Ristic | 52.5% | 52.0% | 52¢ | +0.5pp | LOW | SKIP | 467 | hard | — | +0.005 |
| 143 | Dalma Galfi vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich | Dalma Galfi🧊 COLD | 37.4% | 37.0% | 37¢ | +0.4pp | LOW | SKIP | 0 | hard | — | +0.004 |
| 144 | Kristina Liutova vs Tatiana Prozorova | Tatiana Prozorova⏳ RTRN | 38.1% | 38.0% | 38¢ | +0.1pp | LOW | SKIP | 3793 | hard | — | +0.001 |
| 145 | Joel Schwaerzler vs Gustavo Heide | Gustavo Heide⏳ RTRN | 50.9% | 51.0% | 51¢ | -0.1pp | LOW | SKIP | 692 | hard | — | -0.001 |
| # | Player | Stat | PP line | Our proj | Edge % | Side | Tier | Opp | Surface | Demon | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Frances Tiafoe⏳ RTRN | Break Points Won | 1.5 | 3.24 | +115.8% | MORE | LOW | Arthur Fils | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 2 | Jenson Brooksby🧊 COLD | Break Points Won | 1.5 | 3.15 | +109.7% | MORE | LOW | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 3 | Maria Timofeeva🟨 WARM | Double Faults | 3.5 | 0.00 | +100.0% | LESS | LOW | Kamilla Rakhimova | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 4 | Maya Joint⏳ RTRN | Double Faults | 3.5 | 0.00 | +100.0% | LESS | LOW | Yulia Putintseva | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 5 | Ann Li | Double Faults | 3.5 | 0.00 | +100.0% | LESS | LOW | Camila Osorio | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 6 | Diane Parry🧊 COLD | Double Faults | 3.5 | 0.00 | +100.0% | LESS | LOW | Donna Vekic | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 7 | Yibing Wu🟨 WARM | Break Points Won | 2.5 | 3.40 | +36.2% | MORE | LOW | Francisco Comesana | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 8 | Mattia Bellucci | Break Points Won | 2.5 | 3.34 | +33.7% | MORE | LOW | Martin Landaluce | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 9 | Janice Tjen🧊 COLD | Total Games Won | 12.5 | 9.01 | +27.9% | LESS | LOW | Dayana Yastremska | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 10 | Mattia Bellucci | Total Games Won | 12.5 | 9.06 | +27.5% | LESS | LOW | Martin Landaluce | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 11 | Adam Walton🧊 COLD | Total Games Won | 12.5 | 9.42 | +24.6% | LESS | LOW | Jesper De Jong | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 12 | Fangran Tian⏳ RTRN | Total Games | 20.5 | 24.41 | +19.1% | MORE | LOW | Lucciana Perez Alarcon | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 13 | Clara Tauson⏳ RTRN | Total Games | 20.5 | 24.33 | +18.7% | MORE | LOW | Renata Zarazua | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 14 | Martin Landaluce | Break Points Won | 3.0 | 3.52 | +17.4% | MORE | LOW | Mattia Bellucci | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 15 | Lilli Tagger | Total Games | 21.5 | 24.54 | +14.1% | MORE | LOW | Yuliia Starodubtseva | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 16 | Miomir Kecmanovic🧊 COLD | Break Points Won | 3.0 | 3.42 | +14.1% | MORE | LOW | Sho Shimabukuro | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 17 | Julia Grabher | Total Games | 21.5 | 24.49 | +13.9% | MORE | LOW | Veronika Erjavec | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 18 | Anastasia Zakharova🧊 COLD | Total Games | 21.5 | 24.39 | +13.4% | MORE | LOW | Anna Blinkova | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 19 | Sloane Stephens🧊 COLD | Total Games | 21.5 | 24.32 | +13.1% | MORE | LOW | Mananchaya Sawangkaew | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 20 | Pablo Carreno Busta🟨 WARM | Total Games Won | 12.5 | 10.89 | +12.9% | LESS | LOW | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 21 | Yibing Wu🟨 WARM | Total Games | 22.5 | 25.30 | +12.4% | MORE | LOW | Francisco Comesana | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 22 | Martin Landaluce | Total Games | 22.5 | 25.30 | +12.4% | MORE | LOW | Mattia Bellucci | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 23 | Miomir Kecmanovic🧊 COLD | Total Games Won | 12.5 | 10.96 | +12.3% | LESS | LOW | Sho Shimabukuro | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 24 | Donna Vekic🟨 WARM | Total Games | 21.5 | 24.14 | +12.3% | MORE | LOW | Diane Parry | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 25 | Rinky Hijikata | Total Games | 22.5 | 25.13 | +11.7% | MORE | LOW | Darwin Blanch | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 26 | Pablo Carreno Busta🟨 WARM | Total Games | 22.5 | 25.07 | +11.4% | MORE | LOW | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 27 | Arthur Fils🟨 WARM | Total Games | 22.5 | 25.06 | +11.4% | MORE | LOW | Frances Tiafoe | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 28 | Coco Gauff🟨 WARM | Total Games | 21.5 | 23.92 | +11.3% | MORE | STRONG | Jessica Pegula | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 29 | Dino Prizmic🔥 HOT | Break Points Won | 3.5 | 3.89 | +11.2% | MORE | LOW | Cruz Hewitt | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 30 | Donna Vekic🟨 WARM | Total Games Won | 12.5 | 11.12 | +11.1% | LESS | LOW | Diane Parry | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 31 | Fiona Crawley⏳ RTRN | Total Games Won | 10.5 | 9.34 | +11.0% | LESS | LOW | Simona Waltert | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 32 | Dino Prizmic🔥 HOT | Total Games | 20.5 | 22.74 | +10.9% | MORE | LOW | Cruz Hewitt | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 33 | Pablo Carreno Busta🟨 WARM | Break Points Won | 3.0 | 3.32 | +10.7% | MORE | LOW | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 34 | Simona Waltert🟨 WARM | Total Games | 20.5 | 22.64 | +10.4% | MORE | LOW | Fiona Crawley | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 35 | En-Shuo Liang🟨 WARM | Double Faults | 3.5 | 3.85 | +10.0% | MORE | LOW | Anna Bondar | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 36 | Nikola Bartunkova | Total Games | 21.5 | 23.65 | +10.0% | MORE | LOW | Antonia Ruzic | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 37 | Miomir Kecmanovic🧊 COLD | Total Games | 22.5 | 24.74 | +9.9% | MORE | LOW | Sho Shimabukuro | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 38 | Cruz Hewitt⏳ RTRN | Total Games Won | 9.5 | 8.57 | +9.8% | LESS | LOW | Dino Prizmic | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 39 | Cruz Hewitt⏳ RTRN | Total Games Won | 9.5 | 8.57 | +9.8% | LESS | LOW | Dino Prizmic | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 40 | Janice Tjen🧊 COLD | Total Games | 22.5 | 24.56 | +9.2% | MORE | LOW | Dayana Yastremska | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 41 | Kamil Majchrzak⏳ RTRN | Total Games | 22.5 | 24.51 | +8.9% | MORE | LOW | Benjamin Bonzi | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 42 | Camila Osorio | Total Games | 22.5 | 24.45 | +8.7% | MORE | LOW | Ann Li | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 43 | Lorenzo Sonego🧊 COLD | Total Games | 22.5 | 24.37 | +8.3% | MORE | LOW | Vit Kopriva | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 44 | Adam Walton🧊 COLD | Total Games | 22.5 | 24.33 | +8.1% | MORE | LOW | Jesper De Jong | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 45 | Petra Marcinko | Total Games | 21.5 | 23.25 | +8.1% | MORE | LOW | Alycia Parks | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 46 | Renata Zarazua🟨 WARM | Total Games Won | 9.5 | 9.98 | +5.0% | MORE | LOW | Clara Tauson | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 47 | Dino Prizmic🔥 HOT | Total Games Won | 12.5 | 13.05 | +4.4% | MORE | LOW | Cruz Hewitt | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 48 | Lucciana Perez Alarcon⏳ RTRN | Total Games Won | 11.5 | 11.06 | +3.8% | LESS | LOW | Fangran Tian | clay | — | 1.0x |
| 49 | Marcos Giron | Total Games | 24.5 | 23.96 | +2.2% | LESS | LOW | Valentin Royer | clay | — | 0.5x |
| 50 | Jenson Brooksby🧊 COLD | Total Games | 25.0 | 25.14 | +0.6% | MORE | LOW | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | clay | — | 0.5x |
Kalshi tennis — 1 picks · $2.00 staked
Day 1 - paper only, grade EOD before scaling · locked 2026-08-23T17:52:14.083330+00:00
| # | Match | Pick | Our P | Ask | Edge | Tier | Surface | Stake | Status | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coco Gauff vs Jessica Pegula | Jessica Pegula | 49.3% | 41¢ | 8.3pp | ELITE | hard | $2.00 | OPEN | +0.00 |
PrizePicks tennis — 0 picks · $0.00 staked
Day 1 - paper only, grade EOD before scaling · locked 2026-08-23T17:52:14.011682+00:00
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Our proj | Side | Edge | Tier | Surface | Stake | Status | P&L |
|---|
Polymarket = retail/crypto sentiment. We can't bet there from CA, but the divergence vs Kalshi (sharp) reveals where the public is loading up. Generated 2026-08-23T11:55:58 Β· flagged threshold = Β±3.0pp Β· 0 flagged futures / 0 flagged matches.
Grand-slam futures Β· ANY 2026 Slam (Kalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM vs Polymarket per-slam aggregate)
Polymarket "any-slam" probability computed naively as
1 - product(1 - p_slam). Positive divergence = public (Polymarket) more bullish than sharp (Kalshi). Sorted by |divergence|.| Player | Sharp (Kalshi) | Public (Poly) | Ξ | Poly per-slam |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Draper Β· exact | 2.5% | 0.0% | -2.5pp Β· SHARP HIGHER | US 0% |
| Ben Shelton Β· exact | 9.5% | 7.7% | -1.8pp Β· SHARP HIGHER | US 8% |
| Novak Djokovic Β· exact | 11.5% | 10.4% | -1.1pp Β· SHARP HIGHER | US 10% |
| Frances Tiafoe Β· exact | 1.5% | 2.2% | +0.7pp Β· PUBLIC HIGHER | US 2% |
| Taylor Fritz Β· exact | 6.0% | 5.4% | -0.6pp Β· SHARP HIGHER | US 5% |
| Alexander Bublik Β· exact | 0.5% | 0.8% | +0.3pp Β· PUBLIC HIGHER | US 1% |
| Daniil Medvedev Β· exact | 2.5% | 2.4% | -0.1pp Β· SHARP HIGHER | US 2% |
| Lorenzo Musetti Β· exact | 1.0% | 1.0% | +0.0pp Β· PUBLIC HIGHER | US 1% |
| Karen Khachanov Β· no-match | 0.5% | — | no Poly match | — |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime Β· no-match | 3.0% | — | no Poly match | — |
| Casper Ruud Β· no-match | 1.0% | — | no Poly match | — |
| Alex de Minaur Β· no-match | 1.5% | — | no Poly match | — |
Per-match overlaps
No active per-match overlaps right now (Polymarket tennis volume concentrates in Grand Slam futures).
Per-stat-type MAE (n_graded=18)
Bar width = MAE (lower = better). "INSUFFICIENT" = need more graded picks.
Total Games
n=4
Ours
PP
Us 6.45
PP 3.25
INSUFFICIENT_N
PP 3.25
INSUFFICIENT_N
Total Games Won
n=13
Ours
PP
Us 5.11
PP 4.96
NULL
PP 4.96
NULL
Total Tie Breaks
n=1
Ours
PP
Us 0.25
PP 0.50
INSUFFICIENT_N
PP 0.50
INSUFFICIENT_N
Per-tier MAE
Bar width = MAE (lower = better). "INSUFFICIENT" = need more graded picks.
ELITE
n=16
Ours
PP
Us 4.94
PP 3.75
NULL
PP 3.75
NULL
MED
n=0
Ours
PP
Us —
PP —
INSUFFICIENT_N
PP —
INSUFFICIENT_N
STRONG
n=2
Ours
PP
Us 6.75
PP 9.00
INSUFFICIENT_N
PP 9.00
INSUFFICIENT_N
No AAR available yet.
Expected:
Expected:
~/.claude/projects/.../memory/aar_tennis_<date>.md| # | Player | Stat | Opp | Open | Latest | Diff | Abs | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz Hewitt | Total Games Won | Dino Prizmic | 8.5 | 9.5 | +1.00 | 1.00 | UP |
| 2 | Cruz Hewitt | Total Games Won | Dino Prizmic | 8.5 | 9.5 | +1.00 | 1.00 | UP |
ATP top 50
| Rk | Player | Country | Pts | ELO overall | ELO clay | ELO grass | ELO hard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jannik Sinner | ITA | 13500 | 2167 | 1879 | 1695 | 2062 |
| 2 | Carlos Alcaraz | ESP | 9960 | 2070 | 1867 | 1717 | 1956 |
| 3 | Alexander Zverev | GER | 7305 | 1994 | 1865 | 1594 | 1863 |
| 4 | Felix Auger Aliassime | CAN | 4440 | 1854 | 1642 | 1517 | 1803 |
| 5 | Ben Shelton | USA | 3920 | 1816 | 1665 | 1561 | 1765 |
| 6 | Alex De Minaur | AUS | 3905 | 1851 | 1677 | 1590 | 1806 |
| 7 | Novak Djokovic | SRB | 3760 | 1929 | 1729 | 1636 | 1846 |
| 8 | Daniil Medvedev | RUS | 3760 | 1884 | 1659 | 1585 | 1845 |
| 9 | Taylor Fritz | USA | 3720 | 1793 | 1551 | 1722 | 1749 |
| 10 | Flavio Cobolli | ITA | 3540 | 1833 | 1754 | 1557 | 1655 |
| 11 | Alexander Bublik | KAZ | 2930 | 1785 | 1681 | 1569 | 1703 |
| 12 | Jiri Lehecka | CZE | 2575 | 1814 | 1632 | 1574 | 1754 |
| 13 | Andrey Rublev | RUS | 2460 | 1804 | 1705 | 1516 | 1683 |
| 14 | Casper Ruud | NOR | 2425 | 1866 | 1805 | 1502 | 1685 |
| 15 | Karen Khachanov | RUS | 2320 | 1723 | 1622 | 1567 | 1639 |
| 16 | Lorenzo Musetti | ITA | 2315 | 1832 | 1764 | 1607 | 1723 |
| 17 | Jakub Mensik | CZE | 2300 | 1825 | 1661 | 1497 | 1747 |
| 18 | Luciano Darderi | ITA | 2300 | 1772 | 1790 | 1466 | 1466 |
| 19 | Learner Tien | USA | 2270 | 1847 | 1622 | 1506 | 1789 |
| 20 | Valentin Vacherot | MON | 2145 | 1800 | 1695 | 1467 | 1738 |
| 21 | Arthur Fils | FRA | 1940 | 1892 | 1746 | 1546 | 1771 |
| 22 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | ESP | 1860 | 1749 | 1593 | 1545 | 1703 |
| 23 | Rafael Jodar | ESP | 1849 | 1893 | 1755 | — | 1765 |
| 24 | Arthur Rinderknech | FRA | 1776 | 1713 | 1576 | 1530 | 1631 |
| 25 | Joao Fonseca | BRA | 1735 | 1837 | 1673 | 1495 | 1795 |
| 26 | Frances Tiafoe | USA | 1705 | 1775 | 1640 | 1488 | 1719 |
| 27 | Francisco Cerundolo | ARG | 1660 | 1790 | 1700 | 1426 | 1698 |
| 28 | Tommy Paul | USA | 1645 | 1851 | 1758 | 1587 | 1743 |
| 29 | Cameron Norrie | GBR | 1595 | 1738 | 1631 | 1529 | 1682 |
| 30 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | ARG | 1510 | 1751 | 1656 | 1456 | 1636 |
| 31 | Alejandro Tabilo | CHI | 1428 | 1798 | 1705 | 1575 | 1637 |
| 32 | Brandon Nakashima | USA | 1385 | 1713 | 1582 | 1590 | 1660 |
| 33 | Ugo Humbert | FRA | 1370 | 1715 | 1498 | 1517 | 1697 |
| 34 | Matteo Arnaldi | ITA | 1336 | 1719 | 1676 | 1455 | 1558 |
| 35 | Ignacio Buse | PER | 1316 | 1773 | 1732 | 1482 | 1562 |
| 36 | Corentin Moutet | FRA | 1283 | 1673 | 1567 | 1574 | 1640 |
| 37 | Alexander Blockx | BEL | 1280 | 1820 | 1688 | 1508 | 1713 |
| 38 | Alex Michelsen | USA | 1205 | 1727 | 1522 | 1538 | 1702 |
| 39 | Mariano Navone | ARG | 1165 | 1767 | 1722 | 1460 | 1507 |
| 40 | Zizou Bergs | BEL | 1150 | 1681 | 1547 | 1521 | 1631 |
| 41 | Tallon Griekspoor | NED | 1150 | 1680 | 1576 | 1564 | 1645 |
| 42 | Denis Shapovalov | CAN | 1130 | 1668 | 1483 | 1472 | 1698 |
| 43 | Tomas Machac | CZE | 1120 | 1745 | 1602 | 1500 | 1682 |
| 44 | Jaume Munar | ESP | 1105 | 1695 | 1589 | 1508 | 1635 |
| 45 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | ARG | 1055 | 1756 | 1753 | 1469 | 1532 |
| 46 | Adrian Mannarino | FRA | 1031 | 1565 | 1369 | 1584 | 1569 |
| 47 | Marin Cilic | CRO | 994 | 1684 | 1513 | 1611 | 1635 |
| 48 | Matteo Berrettini | ITA | 985 | 1749 | 1689 | 1524 | 1694 |
| 49 | Miomir Kecmanovic | SRB | 980 | 1688 | 1584 | 1500 | 1595 |
| 50 | Nuno Borges | POR | 970 | 1656 | 1596 | 1493 | 1596 |
WTA top 50
| Rk | Player | Country | Pts | ELO overall | ELO clay | ELO grass | ELO hard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aryna Sabalenka | BLR | 9090 | 2089 | 1801 | 1588 | 2045 |
| 2 | Elena Rybakina | KAZ | 8143 | 2040 | 1766 | 1580 | 1972 |
| 3 | Iga Swiatek | POL | 6733 | 1957 | 1809 | 1658 | 1852 |
| 4 | Jessica Pegula | USA | 6056 | 1979 | 1701 | 1583 | 1901 |
| 5 | Amanda Anisimova | USA | 5848 | 1906 | 1580 | 1638 | 1822 |
| 6 | Mirra Andreeva | RUS | 5751 | 1995 | 1867 | 1513 | 1797 |
| 7 | Coco Gauff | USA | 4879 | 1980 | 1824 | 1519 | 1871 |
| 8 | Elina Svitolina | UKR | 4315 | 1996 | 1824 | 1550 | 1824 |
| 9 | Victoria Mboko | CAN | 3670 | 1937 | 1726 | 1515 | 1891 |
| 10 | Karolina Muchova | CZE | 3438 | 1927 | 1602 | 1494 | 1869 |
| 11 | Belinda Bencic | SUI | 3385 | 1904 | 1636 | 1561 | 1831 |
| 12 | Marta Kostyuk | UKR | 3157 | 1959 | 1801 | 1449 | 1755 |
| 13 | Linda Noskova | CZE | 3054 | 1869 | 1599 | 1583 | 1763 |
| 14 | Jasmine Paolini | ITA | 2617 | 1809 | 1701 | 1585 | 1741 |
| 15 | Naomi Osaka | JPN | 2571 | 1855 | 1688 | 1514 | 1734 |
| 16 | Diana Shnaider | RUS | 2506 | 1841 | 1701 | 1565 | 1686 |
| 17 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | RUS | 2449 | 1711 | 1556 | 1584 | 1662 |
| 18 | Sorana Cirstea | ROU | 2415 | 1919 | 1714 | 1429 | 1797 |
| 19 | Iva Jovic | USA | 2366 | 1833 | 1667 | 1601 | 1759 |
| 20 | Anna Kalinskaya | RUS | 2212 | 1834 | 1631 | 1546 | 1721 |
| 21 | Maja Chwalinska | POL | 1996 | 1860 | 1795 | 1483 | 1693 |
| 22 | Elise Mertens | BEL | 1918 | 1811 | 1619 | 1581 | 1714 |
| 23 | Leylah Fernandez | CAN | 1844 | 1760 | 1569 | 1546 | 1679 |
| 24 | Clara Tauson | DEN | 1800 | 1719 | 1527 | 1520 | 1679 |
| 25 | Emma Navarro | USA | 1779 | 1759 | 1653 | 1590 | 1613 |
| 26 | Madison Keys | USA | 1772 | 1864 | 1732 | 1558 | 1766 |
| 27 | Anastasia Potapova | RUS | 1640 | 1855 | 1743 | 1484 | 1640 |
| 28 | Marie Bouzkova | CZE | 1631 | 1787 | 1702 | 1476 | 1648 |
| 29 | Ann Li | USA | 1601 | 1759 | 1646 | 1478 | 1647 |
| 30 | Hailey Baptiste | USA | 1513 | 1790 | 1667 | 1488 | 1667 |
| 31 | Xin Yu Wang | CHN | 1431 | 1719 | 1537 | 1591 | 1616 |
| 32 | Katerina Siniakova | CZE | 1422 | 1771 | 1559 | 1578 | 1693 |
| 33 | Alexandra Eala | PHI | 1416 | 1837 | 1495 | 1665 | 1748 |
| 34 | Cristina Bucsa | ESP | 1406 | 1705 | 1443 | 1514 | 1684 |
| 35 | Liudmila Samsonova | RUS | 1405 | 1680 | 1593 | 1619 | 1566 |
| 36 | Jelena Ostapenko | LAT | 1404 | 1762 | 1660 | 1534 | 1621 |
| 37 | Maria Sakkari | GRE | 1328 | 1729 | 1589 | 1486 | 1658 |
| 38 | Jaqueline Cristian | ROU | 1294 | 1767 | 1631 | 1432 | 1698 |
| 39 | Mccartney Kessler | USA | 1289 | 1751 | 1547 | 1583 | 1688 |
| 40 | Janice Tjen | INA | 1267 | 1780 | 1634 | 1503 | 1785 |
| 41 | Elisabetta Cocciaretto | ITA | 1260 | 1800 | 1586 | 1577 | 1689 |
| 42 | Emma Raducanu | GBR | 1241 | 1727 | 1548 | 1577 | 1658 |
| 43 | Magdalena Frech | POL | 1238 | 1655 | 1530 | 1434 | 1613 |
| 44 | Laura Siegemund | GER | 1230 | 1691 | 1553 | 1541 | 1592 |
| 45 | Barbora Krejcikova | CZE | 1211 | 1743 | 1550 | 1606 | 1647 |
| 46 | Sara Bejlek | CZE | 1205 | 1783 | 1736 | 1486 | 1653 |
| 47 | Tereza Valentova | CZE | 1165 | 1829 | 1727 | 1517 | 1788 |
| 48 | Marketa Vondrousova | CZE | 1133 | 1728 | 1606 | 1578 | 1609 |
| 49 | Dayana Yastremska | UKR | 1126 | 1743 | 1640 | 1575 | 1594 |
| 50 | Petra Marcinko | CRO | 1123 | 1771 | 1743 | 1467 | 1633 |
Top Kalshi edges
#1 Marco Cecchinato ELITE_LOW_N
Marco Cecchinato vs Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera on hard β model 45% vs market 15% (+30.0pp). ELITE_LOW_N, ask 15Β’.
#2 Andres Andrade ELITE_LOW_N
Andres Andrade vs Colton Smith on hard β model 49% vs market 20% (+29.4pp). ELITE_LOW_N, ask 20Β’. Form: Andres Andra=COLD | Colton Smith=WARM.
#3 Gonzalo Bueno STRONG_LOW_N
Gonzalo Bueno vs Jerome Kym on hard β model 45% vs market 16% (+29.0pp). STRONG_LOW_N, ask 16Β’.
#4 Adam Walton ELITE_LOW_N
Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios on hard β model 64% vs market 93% (+-28.5pp). ELITE_LOW_N, ask 93Β’.
#5 Florent Bax ELITE_LOW_N
Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch on hard β model 45% vs market 17% (+28.0pp). ELITE_LOW_N, ask 17Β’.
Top PrizePicks edges
#1 Martin Landaluce ELITE_LOW_N
Martin Landaluce LESS 0.5 Total Tie Breaks vs Jan-Lennard Struff β proj 0.2 (+50.0% edge). Surface: clay.
#2 Rei Sakamoto ELITE_LOW_N
Rei Sakamoto LESS 0.5 Total Tie Breaks vs Anton Matusevich β proj 0.2 (+49.9% edge). Surface: clay.
#3 Jack Draper STRONG_LOW_N
Jack Draper LESS 0.5 Total Tie Breaks vs Brandon Nakashima β proj 0.2 (+49.9% edge). Surface: clay.
Fade signals
- Clara Tauson (RETURNING): RETURNING form tag β fade or fade-against.
- Gabriel Diallo (COLD): COLD form tag β fade or fade-against.
- Raphael Collignon (RETURNING): RETURNING form tag β fade or fade-against.
- Maya Joint (RETURNING): RETURNING form tag β fade or fade-against.
- Antonia Ruzic (COLD): COLD form tag β fade or fade-against.
- Francisco Comesana (COLD): COLD form tag β fade or fade-against.
- Jan Lennard Struff (COLD): COLD form tag β fade or fade-against.
- Alexei Popyrin (COLD): COLD form tag β fade or fade-against.
Surface leans
| Surface | Matches | % strong fav | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|
| hard | 5 | 0.0% | pick'em slate |
| grass | 154 | 3.9% | pick'em slate |
ATP (current surface: grass, top 50 by composite)
| Rk | Player | Country | Composite | ELO overall | ELO grass | Form | Off. rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jannik Sinner | ITA | 2051.6 | 2167 | 1695 | WARM | 1 |
| 2 | Carlos Alcaraz | ESP | 1923.6 | 2070 | 1717 | RETURNING | 2 |
| 3 | Rafael Jodar | ESP | 1913.0 | 1893 | 1893 | WARM | 23 |
| 4 | Alexander Zverev | GER | 1898.3 | 1994 | 1594 | WARM | 3 |
| 5 | Daniil Medvedev | RUS | 1808.0 | 1884 | 1585 | WARM | 8 |
| 6 | Arthur Fils | FRA | 1791.0 | 1892 | 1546 | WARM | 21 |
| 7 | Novak Djokovic | SRB | 1788.6 | 1929 | 1636 | RETURNING | 7 |
| 8 | Tommy Paul | USA | 1778.5 | 1851 | 1587 | WARM | 28 |
| 9 | Felix Auger Aliassime | CAN | 1777.3 | 1854 | 1517 | WARM | 4 |
| 10 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | PAR | 1775.3 | 1755 | 1755 | WARM | 72 |
| 11 | Alex De Minaur | AUS | 1775.0 | 1851 | 1590 | NEUTRAL | 6 |
| 12 | Daniel Merida Aguilar | ESP | 1767.7 | 1748 | 1748 | WARM | 82 |
| 13 | Yibing Wu | CHN | 1766.8 | 1747 | 1747 | WARM | 101 |
| 14 | Ben Shelton | USA | 1764.8 | 1816 | 1561 | WARM | 5 |
| 15 | Flavio Cobolli | ITA | 1759.5 | 1833 | 1557 | WARM | 10 |
| 16 | Casper Ruud | NOR | 1758.5 | 1866 | 1502 | WARM | 14 |
| 17 | Lorenzo Musetti | ITA | 1753.5 | 1832 | 1607 | NEUTRAL | 16 |
| 18 | Dino Prizmic | CRO | 1753.2 | 1813 | 1499 | HOT | 70 |
| 19 | Jiri Lehecka | CZE | 1750.1 | 1814 | 1574 | WARM | 12 |
| 20 | Alejandro Tabilo | CHI | 1739.8 | 1798 | 1575 | WARM | 31 |
| 21 | Joao Fonseca | BRA | 1737.3 | 1837 | 1495 | WARM | 25 |
| 22 | Alexander Blockx | BEL | 1730.5 | 1820 | 1508 | WARM | 37 |
| 23 | Jakub Mensik | CZE | 1730.1 | 1825 | 1497 | WARM | 17 |
| 24 | Toby Samuel | GBR | 1728.8 | 1709 | 1709 | WARM | 150 |
| 25 | Learner Tien | USA | 1727.2 | 1847 | 1506 | NEUTRAL | 19 |
| 26 | Taylor Fritz | USA | 1724.0 | 1793 | 1722 | RETURNING | 9 |
| 27 | Stefanos Sakellaridis | GRE | 1711.7 | 1692 | 1692 | WARM | 155 |
| 28 | Alexander Bublik | KAZ | 1709.5 | 1785 | 1569 | NEUTRAL | 11 |
| 29 | Rei Sakamoto | JPN | 1706.3 | 1686 | 1686 | WARM | 149 |
| 30 | Valentin Vacherot | MON | 1703.4 | 1800 | 1467 | WARM | 20 |
| 31 | Andrey Rublev | RUS | 1703.1 | 1804 | 1516 | NEUTRAL | 13 |
| 32 | Zachary Svajda | USA | 1696.9 | 1722 | 1650 | NEUTRAL | 62 |
| 33 | Michael Mmoh | USA | 1695.3 | 1675 | 1675 | WARM | 195 |
| 34 | Alex Molcan | SVK | 1694.0 | 1744 | 1744 | RETURNING | 102 |
| 35 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo | ESP | 1691.4 | 1641 | 1641 | HOT | 226 |
| 36 | Kilian Feldbausch | SUI | 1688.9 | 1669 | 1669 | WARM | 287 |
| 37 | Pablo Carreno Busta | ESP | 1684.3 | 1761 | 1484 | WARM | 71 |
| 38 | Buvaysar Gadamauri | BEL | 1684.1 | 1664 | 1664 | WARM | 261 |
| 39 | Francisco Cerundolo | ARG | 1682.9 | 1790 | 1426 | WARM | 27 |
| 40 | Jack Draper | GBR | 1682.2 | 1806 | 1594 | RETURNING | 112 |
| 41 | Mariano Navone | ARG | 1679.8 | 1767 | 1460 | WARM | 39 |
| 42 | Franco Roncadelli | URU | 1679.0 | 1659 | 1659 | WARM | 227 |
| 43 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | ESP | 1677.3 | 1749 | 1545 | NEUTRAL | 22 |
| 44 | Roman Andres Burruchaga | ARG | 1676.8 | 1733 | 1514 | WARM | 63 |
| 45 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | ARG | 1675.7 | 1756 | 1469 | WARM | 45 |
| 46 | Hubert Hurkacz | POL | 1675.6 | 1714 | 1547 | WARM | 96 |
| 47 | Ignacio Buse | PER | 1671.0 | 1773 | 1482 | NEUTRAL | 35 |
| 48 | Matteo Berrettini | ITA | 1670.6 | 1749 | 1524 | NEUTRAL | 48 |
| 49 | Brandon Nakashima | USA | 1670.4 | 1713 | 1590 | NEUTRAL | 32 |
| 50 | Bu Yunchaokete | CHN | 1668.7 | 1709 | 1536 | WARM | 131 |
WTA (current surface: grass, top 50 by composite)
| Rk | Player | Country | Composite | ELO overall | ELO grass | Form | Off. rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aryna Sabalenka | BLR | 1963.9 | 2089 | 1588 | WARM | 1 |
| 2 | Elena Rybakina | KAZ | 1925.9 | 2040 | 1580 | WARM | 2 |
| 3 | Alexandra Shubladze | RUS | 1898.6 | 1879 | 1879 | WARM | 184 |
| 4 | Jeline Vandromme | BEL | 1883.0 | 1863 | 1863 | WARM | 176 |
| 5 | Jessica Pegula | USA | 1881.7 | 1979 | 1583 | WARM | 4 |
| 6 | Iga Swiatek | POL | 1876.4 | 1957 | 1658 | NEUTRAL | 3 |
| 7 | Elina Svitolina | UKR | 1869.3 | 1996 | 1550 | WARM | 8 |
| 8 | Lisa Pigato | ITA | 1866.5 | 1846 | 1846 | WARM | 132 |
| 9 | Mirra Andreeva | RUS | 1861.0 | 1995 | 1513 | WARM | 6 |
| 10 | Coco Gauff | USA | 1850.8 | 1980 | 1519 | WARM | 7 |
| 11 | Akasha Urhobo | USA | 1843.4 | 1823 | 1823 | WARM | 180 |
| 12 | Tyra Caterina Grant | USA | 1840.5 | 1820 | 1820 | WARM | 157 |
| 13 | Dayeon Back | KOR | 1825.7 | 1806 | 1806 | WARM | 279 |
| 14 | Kaitlin Quevedo | USA | 1824.7 | 1825 | 1825 | NEUTRAL | 107 |
| 15 | Victoria Mboko | CAN | 1815.1 | 1937 | 1515 | WARM | 9 |
| 16 | Laura Samson | CZE | 1810.3 | 1810 | 1810 | NEUTRAL | 137 |
| 17 | Alice Tubello | FRA | 1810.1 | 1790 | 1790 | WARM | 222 |
| 18 | Belinda Bencic | SUI | 1804.3 | 1904 | 1561 | WARM | 11 |
| 19 | Carol Young Suh Lee | POC | 1801.3 | 1781 | 1781 | WARM | 192 |
| 20 | Jennifer Ruggeri | ITA | 1801.1 | 1781 | 1781 | WARM | 213 |
| 21 | Marta Kostyuk | UKR | 1800.2 | 1959 | 1449 | WARM | 12 |
| 22 | Anastasia Zolotareva | RUS | 1798.0 | 1778 | 1778 | WARM | 233 |
| 23 | Kristina Liutova | RUS | 1796.5 | 1777 | 1777 | WARM | 229 |
| 24 | Luisina Giovannini | ARG | 1793.4 | 1843 | 1843 | RETURNING | 173 |
| 25 | Angela Fita Boluda | ESP | 1793.2 | 1773 | 1773 | WARM | 195 |
| 26 | Eva Guerrero Alvarez | ESP | 1791.5 | 1772 | 1772 | WARM | 274 |
| 27 | Linda Noskova | CZE | 1788.9 | 1869 | 1583 | WARM | 13 |
| 28 | Hayu Kinoshita | JPN | 1787.3 | 1767 | 1767 | WARM | 217 |
| 29 | Martyna Kubka | POL | 1784.6 | 1765 | 1765 | WARM | 243 |
| 30 | Darya Astakhova | RUS | 1782.7 | 1763 | 1763 | WARM | 236 |
| 31 | Amanda Anisimova | USA | 1780.3 | 1906 | 1638 | RETURNING | 5 |
| 32 | Samira De Stefano | ITA | 1779.4 | 1759 | 1759 | WARM | 263 |
| 33 | Alexandra Eala | PHI | 1776.5 | 1837 | 1665 | NEUTRAL | 33 |
| 34 | Caijsa Wilda Hennemann | SWE | 1773.6 | 1774 | 1774 | NEUTRAL | 276 |
| 35 | Lilli Tagger | AUT | 1770.9 | 1771 | 1771 | NEUTRAL | 86 |
| 36 | Claire Liu | USA | 1770.0 | 1750 | 1750 | WARM | 148 |
| 37 | Sorana Cirstea | ROU | 1767.4 | 1919 | 1429 | WARM | 18 |
| 38 | Lanlana Tararudee | THA | 1766.5 | 1860 | 1536 | WARM | 94 |
| 39 | Daria Snigur | UKR | 1765.8 | 1863 | 1528 | WARM | 84 |
| 40 | Veronika Podrez | UKR | 1764.2 | 1814 | 1814 | RETURNING | 145 |
| 41 | Lucie Havlickova | CZE | 1758.1 | 1738 | 1738 | WARM | 212 |
| 42 | Sohyun Park | KOR | 1756.7 | 1737 | 1737 | WARM | 270 |
| 43 | Julie Struplova | CZE | 1755.7 | 1786 | 1786 | COLD | 272 |
| 44 | Tatiana Prozorova | RUS | 1755.6 | 1806 | 1806 | RETURNING | 172 |
| 45 | Elizara Yaneva | BUL | 1752.5 | 1752 | 1752 | NEUTRAL | 225 |
| 46 | Iva Jovic | USA | 1751.9 | 1833 | 1601 | NEUTRAL | 19 |
| 47 | Oleksandra Oliynykova | CRO | 1748.0 | 1859 | 1485 | WARM | 51 |
| 48 | Hanyu Guo | CHN | 1747.7 | 1728 | 1728 | WARM | 156 |
| 49 | Anhelina Kalinina | UKR | 1746.9 | 1842 | 1513 | WARM | 69 |
| 50 | Rebeka Masarova | ESP | 1746.2 | 1813 | 1623 | NEUTRAL | 140 |
ATP on CLAY (top 15 by surface tilt)
| Player | Ξ ELO | ELO clay | ELO overall | Form | Off. rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zdenek Kolar | +27.9 | 1617 | 1589 | NEUTRAL | 162 |
| Gustavo Heide | +25.1 | 1725 | 1700 | RETURNING | 182 |
| Jan Choinski | +19.6 | 1688 | 1668 | COLD | 105 |
| Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | +19.3 | 1648 | 1628 | RETURNING | 161 |
| Gonzalo Bueno | +17.6 | 1637 | 1619 | RETURNING | 180 |
| Luciano Darderi | +17.2 | 1790 | 1772 | WARM | 18 |
| Valentin Royer | +16.5 | 1654 | 1638 | WARM | 74 |
| Alex Barrena | +13.9 | 1571 | 1557 | NEUTRAL | 197 |
| Jesper De Jong | +12.7 | 1672 | 1659 | NEUTRAL | 83 |
| Hugo Dellien | +11.2 | 1688 | 1677 | RETURNING | 165 |
| Timofey Skatov | +11.0 | 1631 | 1620 | NEUTRAL | 175 |
| Tomas Barrios Vera | +9.1 | 1686 | 1677 | COLD | 138 |
| Lukas Neumayer | +8.9 | 1693 | 1684 | WARM | 168 |
| Marco Trungelliti | +8.6 | 1684 | 1675 | NEUTRAL | 80 |
| Facundo Diaz Acosta | +4.7 | 1703 | 1698 | RETURNING | 128 |
WTA on CLAY (top 15 by surface tilt)
| Player | Ξ ELO | ELO clay | ELO overall | Form | Off. rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katarzyna Kawa | +26.3 | 1730 | 1704 | HOT | 143 |
| Despina Papamichail | +7.5 | 1686 | 1679 | NEUTRAL | 168 |
| Teodora Kostovic | +4.7 | 1735 | 1730 | NEUTRAL | 182 |
| Anna Bondar | +4.5 | 1779 | 1775 | WARM | 75 |
| Simona Waltert | -2.9 | 1764 | 1767 | WARM | 90 |
| Carole Monnet | -3.1 | 1662 | 1665 | NEUTRAL | 191 |
| Julia Grabher | -4.8 | 1715 | 1720 | NEUTRAL | 116 |
| Andrea Lazaro Garcia | -7.6 | 1791 | 1799 | WARM | 153 |
| Luisina Giovannini | -10.7 | 1833 | 1843 | RETURNING | 173 |
| Veronika Erjavec | -12.4 | 1739 | 1752 | WARM | 89 |
| Darja Semenistaja | -13.5 | 1778 | 1792 | WARM | 102 |
| Mayar Sherif | -13.8 | 1707 | 1720 | RETURNING | 118 |
| Whitney Osuigwe | -13.8 | 1668 | 1682 | WARM | 183 |
| Nuria Brancaccio | -14.1 | 1658 | 1672 | COLD | 177 |
| Tamara Zidansek | -15.2 | 1761 | 1777 | RETURNING | 134 |
ATP on GRASS (top 15 by surface tilt)
| Player | Ξ ELO | ELO grass | ELO overall | Form | Off. rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shintaro Mochizuki | +54.6 | 1565 | 1511 | RETURNING | 129 |
| Nicolas Jarry | +29.4 | 1564 | 1535 | RETURNING | 189 |
| Billy Harris | +25.6 | 1541 | 1515 | COLD | 144 |
| Adrian Mannarino | +19.4 | 1584 | 1565 | COLD | 46 |
| Roberto Bautista Agut | -25.0 | 1551 | 1576 | COLD | 116 |
| Aleksandar Vukic | -31.8 | 1537 | 1569 | COLD | 100 |
| Otto Virtanen | -49.0 | 1631 | 1680 | NEUTRAL | 158 |
| Tristan Schoolkate | -50.4 | 1550 | 1600 | WARM | 123 |
| Alex Bolt | -56.1 | 1592 | 1648 | WARM | 157 |
| August Holmgren | -56.7 | 1548 | 1605 | WARM | 148 |
| Gabriel Diallo | -63.2 | 1576 | 1639 | COLD | 54 |
| Marcos Giron | -71.3 | 1570 | 1641 | WARM | 88 |
| Zachary Svajda | -72.3 | 1650 | 1722 | NEUTRAL | 62 |
| Marin Cilic | -73.2 | 1611 | 1684 | NEUTRAL | 47 |
| Ugo Blanchet | -74.7 | 1459 | 1534 | COLD | 173 |
WTA on GRASS (top 15 by surface tilt)
| Player | Ξ ELO | ELO grass | ELO overall | Form | Off. rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatjana Maria | -18.0 | 1598 | 1616 | NEUTRAL | 52 |
| Beatriz Haddad Maia | -64.5 | 1514 | 1578 | COLD | 108 |
| Viktoriya Tomova | -107.0 | 1500 | 1607 | NEUTRAL | 167 |
| Ajla Tomljanovic | -111.2 | 1536 | 1647 | NEUTRAL | 109 |
| Xin Yu Wang | -127.1 | 1591 | 1719 | NEUTRAL | 31 |
| Kamilla Rakhimova | -128.2 | 1576 | 1705 | NEUTRAL | 78 |
| Linda Fruhvirtova | -133.9 | 1543 | 1677 | NEUTRAL | 164 |
| Suzan Lamens | -135.0 | 1489 | 1624 | COLD | 125 |
| Lulu Sun | -136.6 | 1519 | 1655 | NEUTRAL | 110 |
| Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva | -136.9 | 1499 | 1636 | NEUTRAL | 124 |
| Rebecca Sramkova | -137.3 | 1509 | 1646 | NEUTRAL | 120 |
| Dalma Galfi | -138.3 | 1576 | 1714 | NEUTRAL | 117 |
| Ashlyn Krueger | -149.2 | 1563 | 1712 | NEUTRAL | 113 |
| Elena Gabriela Ruse | -159.4 | 1570 | 1730 | NEUTRAL | 88 |
| Bianca Andreescu | -161.6 | 1539 | 1700 | NEUTRAL | 158 |
ATP on HARD (top 15 by surface tilt)
| Player | Ξ ELO | ELO hard | ELO overall | Form | Off. rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Gaston | +45.5 | 1666 | 1620 | WARM | 119 |
| Luca Van Assche | +35.7 | 1704 | 1668 | WARM | 98 |
| Toby Samuel | +29.5 | 1738 | 1709 | WARM | 150 |
| Gauthier Onclin | +6.0 | 1613 | 1607 | HOT | 186 |
| Clement Chidekh | +5.5 | 1629 | 1624 | NEUTRAL | 200 |
| Rinky Hijikata | +3.2 | 1683 | 1680 | WARM | 106 |
| Alexis Galarneau | +2.9 | 1613 | 1610 | WARM | 187 |
| Coleman Wong | -1.9 | 1641 | 1643 | WARM | 108 |
| Benjamin Bonzi | -3.0 | 1678 | 1680 | WARM | 99 |
| Michael Mmoh | -10.9 | 1664 | 1675 | WARM | 195 |
| Borna Gojo | -11.2 | 1698 | 1709 | WARM | 178 |
| Ethan Quinn | -13.2 | 1683 | 1696 | WARM | 67 |
| Marcos Giron | -13.6 | 1628 | 1641 | WARM | 88 |
| Sho Shimabukuro | -14.6 | 1643 | 1657 | NEUTRAL | 104 |
| Terence Atmane | -14.7 | 1627 | 1641 | NEUTRAL | 53 |
WTA on HARD (top 15 by surface tilt)
| Player | Ξ ELO | ELO hard | ELO overall | Form | Off. rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talia Gibson | +53.5 | 1832 | 1779 | HOT | 63 |
| Hanne Vandewinkel | +51.2 | 1848 | 1796 | HOT | 97 |
| Xiaodi You | +1.4 | 1730 | 1729 | WARM | 170 |
| Kimberly Birrell | -6.3 | 1751 | 1757 | WARM | 74 |
| Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva | -6.9 | 1629 | 1636 | WARM | 124 |
| Ye Xin Ma | -9.4 | 1684 | 1693 | WARM | 189 |
| Sofia Costoulas | -11.2 | 1729 | 1740 | WARM | 150 |
| Taylah Preston | -15.5 | 1796 | 1811 | WARM | 126 |
| Polina Iatcenko | -17.5 | 1721 | 1738 | NEUTRAL | 163 |
| Himeno Sakatsume | -18.4 | 1742 | 1761 | NEUTRAL | 127 |
| Vendula Valdmannova | -18.6 | 1785 | 1804 | WARM | 199 |
| Priscilla Hon | -19.1 | 1646 | 1665 | NEUTRAL | 146 |
| Harriet Dart | -23.5 | 1740 | 1763 | WARM | 160 |
| Francisca Jorge | -27.2 | 1699 | 1727 | RETURNING | 196 |
| Hanyu Guo | -27.7 | 1700 | 1728 | WARM | 156 |
WTA on INDOOR (top 15 by surface tilt)
| Player | Ξ ELO | ELO indoor | ELO overall | Form | Off. rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linda Klimovicova | -124.1 | 1616 | 1740 | NEUTRAL | 165 |
| Kimberly Birrell | -177.1 | 1580 | 1757 | NEUTRAL | 74 |
| Ye Xin Ma | -177.9 | 1515 | 1693 | WARM | 189 |
| Carole Monnet | -194.2 | 1471 | 1665 | NEUTRAL | 191 |
| Elvina Kalieva | -209.7 | 1521 | 1731 | WARM | 135 |
| Himeno Sakatsume | -218.0 | 1543 | 1761 | NEUTRAL | 127 |
| Emerson Jones | -222.0 | 1584 | 1806 | WARM | 133 |
| Dalma Galfi | -228.3 | 1486 | 1714 | NEUTRAL | 117 |
| Marina Bassols Ribera | -229.2 | 1503 | 1732 | WARM | 144 |
| Tamara Korpatsch | -240.1 | 1534 | 1774 | WARM | 79 |
| Mona Barthel | -254.2 | 1500 | 1754 | WARM | 193 |
| Polina Iatcenko | -254.5 | 1484 | 1738 | NEUTRAL | 163 |
| Sofia Costoulas | -256.1 | 1484 | 1740 | WARM | 150 |
| Vendula Valdmannova | -269.7 | 1534 | 1804 | WARM | 199 |
| Daria Snigur | -273.9 | 1589 | 1863 | WARM | 84 |
β Caveat: Model CLV anti-correlated with skill (Phase A finding); treat parlays as paper.
Kalshi cross-match (independent fav parlays)
| Label | Variance | Legs | Joint P | Payout | EV/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-leg fav cross-tournament: Nishesh Basava + Jan Choinski | LOW | Nishesh Basavareddy + Jan Choinski | 0.396 | 3.08x | 0.219 |
Kalshi same-match (correlated)
No combos surfaced.
PrizePicks slips
| Label | Variance | Legs | Joint P | Payout | EV/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-pick MED-variance | MED | Janice Tjen LESS 12.5 Total Games Won, Mattia Bellucci LESS 12.5 Total Games Won | 0.408 | 5.00x | 1.040 |
| 2-pick HIGH-variance | HIGH | Mattia Bellucci MORE 2.5 Break Points Won, Martin Landaluce MORE 3.0 Break Points Won | 0.393 | 10.00x | 2.925 |
| 3-pick MED-variance | MED | Janice Tjen LESS 12.5 Total Games Won, Mattia Bellucci LESS 12.5 Total Games Won, Adam Walton LESS 12.5 Total Games Won | 0.254 | 10.00x | 1.542 |
| 3-pick HIGH-variance | HIGH | Mattia Bellucci MORE 2.5 Break Points Won, Martin Landaluce MORE 3.0 Break Points Won, Miomir Kecmanovic MORE 3.0 Break Points Won | 0.224 | 25.00x | 4.597 |
| 4-pick MED-variance | MED | Janice Tjen LESS 12.5 Total Games Won, Mattia Bellucci LESS 12.5 Total Games Won, Adam Walton LESS 12.5 Total Games Won, Fangran Tian MORE 20.5 Total Games | 0.151 | 18.00x | 1.724 |
| 4-pick HIGH-variance | HIGH | Mattia Bellucci MORE 2.5 Break Points Won, Martin Landaluce MORE 3.0 Break Points Won, Miomir Kecmanovic MORE 3.0 Break Points Won, Dino Prizmic MORE 3.5 Break Points Won | 0.124 | 50.00x | 5.226 |
β Inverted CLV signal: win rate at POSITIVE CLV (0.429) < win rate at NEGATIVE CLV (0.6562). When we beat the close, we LOSE; when we lose the close, we WIN. Model is anti-correlated with skill. Real money gated.
CLV vs Pinnacle close (overall)
| n picks total | 1802 |
| matched Pinnacle | 370 (20.5%) |
| mean CLV (pp) | 16.16 |
| median CLV (pp) | 15.824 |
| win rate at +CLV | 0.429 |
| win rate at -CLV | 0.6562 |
CLV by market price bucket (FLB signal)
| Bucket | n | Mean CLV (pp) |
|---|---|---|
| <10% | 30 | 32.535 |
| 10-30% | 146 | 21.473 |
| 30-50% | 129 | 11.786 |
| 50-70% | 49 | 6.21 |
| 70-90% | 8 | 3.478 |
| >90% | 8 | 1.915 |
Calibration buckets
| n_total | 1321 |
| ECE (pp) | 4.355 |
| Brier Score | 0.2417 |
| Log Loss | 0.6762 |
Predicted vs actual (10pp buckets)
| Bucket | n | Predicted | Actual | Gap (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.2-0.30 | 20 | 0.2832 | 0.35 | +6.68 |
| 0.3-0.40 | 154 | 0.3585 | 0.2792 | -7.93 |
| 0.4-0.50 | 521 | 0.4513 | 0.4319 | -1.95 |
| 0.5-0.60 | 487 | 0.5448 | 0.4949 | -4.99 |
| 0.6-0.70 | 124 | 0.6405 | 0.5806 | -5.98 |
| 0.7-0.80 | 14 | 0.7179 | 0.8571 | +13.93 |
| 0.8-0.90 | 1 | 0.8232 | 1.0 | +17.68 |
| Source | DB / file | Last pulled | Age | Rows | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi KXATPMATCH | tennis_kalshi.sqlite | 2026-08-24T05:00:03.957111+00:00 | 30m | 1994 | fresh |
| Kalshi KXWTAMATCH | tennis_kalshi.sqlite | 2026-08-24T05:00:02.247059+00:00 | 30m | 1948 | fresh |
| Kalshi KXFRENCHOPEN | tennis_kalshi.sqlite | 2026-08-24T05:00:02.247059+00:00 | 30m | 0 | fresh |
| Kalshi KXFOPENMENSINGLE | tennis_kalshi.sqlite | 2026-08-24T05:00:02.247059+00:00 | 30m | 0 | fresh |
| Kalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM | tennis_kalshi.sqlite | 2026-08-24T05:00:03.957111+00:00 | 30m | 13 | fresh |
| Kalshi KXUSOPEN | tennis_kalshi.sqlite | 2026-08-24T05:00:03.957111+00:00 | 30m | 0 | fresh |
| Kalshi KXATPSETWINNER | tennis_kalshi.sqlite | 2026-08-24T05:00:03.957111+00:00 | 30m | 4402 | fresh |
| Kalshi KXATPTOTALSETS | tennis_kalshi.sqlite | 2026-08-24T05:00:03.957111+00:00 | 30m | 0 | fresh |
| Kalshi KXATPSETSWEEP | tennis_kalshi.sqlite | 2026-08-24T05:00:03.957111+00:00 | 30m | 1 | fresh |
| Kalshi KXATPGAMESPREAD | tennis_kalshi.sqlite | 2026-08-24T05:00:03.957111+00:00 | 30m | 0 | fresh |
| Kalshi KXATPEXACTMATCH | tennis_kalshi.sqlite | 2026-08-24T05:00:02.247059+00:00 | 30m | 4262 | fresh |
| Kalshi KXWTADOUBLES | tennis_kalshi.sqlite | 2026-08-24T05:00:02.247059+00:00 | 30m | 300 | fresh |
| Kalshi KXATP1RANK | tennis_kalshi.sqlite | 2026-08-24T05:00:02.247059+00:00 | 30m | 16 | fresh |
| elo last computed | tennis.sqlite | 2026-06-21T17:36:52+00:00 | 1523.90h | 20430 | stale |
| rankings last pulled | tennis.sqlite | 2026-06-15T17:40:18+00:00 | 1667.84h | 11348 | stale |
| rankings atp latest date | tennis.sqlite | 2026-06-08 | 1853.51h | — | stale |
| rankings wta latest date | tennis.sqlite | 2026-06-08 | 1853.51h | — | stale |
| mirror atp schedule | tennis.sqlite | 2026-08-24T05:00:03.621835+00:00 | 30m | 0 | fresh |
| h2h last computed | tennis.sqlite | 2026-05-17T10:11:57.514615+00:00 | 2371.31h | — | stale |
| h2h n pairs | tennis.sqlite | 190184 | missing | — | missing |
| last player db run | tennis.sqlite | 1787510963 | missing | — | missing |
| results last_run | tennis_results.sqlite | [2026-08-24T05:02:06.131368+00:00] 2026-08-24T05:02:05.316494+00:00; dates=['20260823']; rows=0; resolved=0 | missing | — | missing |
| pp_edges CSV | pp_edges_tennis_2026-08-23.csv | 2026-08-23T18:50:37.784394+00:00 | 10.67h | — | stale |
| kalshi edges JSON | tennis_kalshi_edges_2026-08-23.json | 2026-08-24T05:02:42.574359+00:00 | 28m | — | fresh |
| paper trades PP | paper_trades_pp_tennis_2026-08-23.json | 2026-08-24T05:30:48.025460+00:00 | 0m | — | fresh |
| paper trades Kalshi | paper_trades_kalshi_tennis_2026-08-23.json | 2026-08-24T05:30:47.549393+00:00 | 0m | — | fresh |
| daily payload | daily_tennis_2026-08-23.json | 2026-08-23T18:55:52.271896+00:00 | 10.58h | — | stale |
| PP movement | pp_line_movement_tennis_2026-08-23.csv | 2026-08-23T18:55:51.616440+00:00 | 10.58h | — | stale |
| PP calibration | pp_calibration_tennis.json | 2026-08-23T18:55:51.524809+00:00 | 10.58h | — | stale |