T
Tennis EdgeBoard
ATP + WTA daily edges - Kalshi + PrizePicks - auto-refresh 2m
💰Money📊AccuracyMLBEdgeBoardWCEdgeBoard🎾TennisDAY-2 RESET🏈NFL
Generated
2026-05-22 16:17 UTC
Sources
29
⚠
Day-2 calibration reset

Real-money probe lost 0/4 (-$10.00) on 5/17. Sim was wildly over-confident on qualifying-round picks — 8/8 qualifying edges lost despite avg +35pp model edge.

Qualifying filter now active. Real money gate-locked until 5/30 ($50 paper P&L + MAE <3pp + n≥50 graded). See Calibration & Lessons tab for the full Day-2 AAR.

Kalshi KXATPMATCH 3m · 1866rKalshi KXWTAMATCH 3m · 1750rKalshi KXFRENCHOPEN 3mKalshi KXFOPENMENSINGLE 3mKalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM 3m · 14rKalshi KXUSOPEN 3mKalshi KXATPSETWINNER 3m · 3712rKalshi KXATPTOTALSETS 3mKalshi KXATPSETSWEEP 3mKalshi KXATPGAMESPREAD 3mKalshi KXATPEXACTMATCH 3m · 1362rKalshi KXWTADOUBLES 3mKalshi KXATP1RANK 3m · 16relo last computed 3.1h · 20051rrankings last pulled 3.1h · 3745rrankings atp latest date 18drankings wta latest date 18dmirror atp schedule 1m · 262rh2h last computed 5dh2h n pairs missinglast player db run missingresults last_run missingpp_edges CSV 0mkalshi edges JSON 0mpaper trades PP 3.1hpaper trades Kalshi 58mdaily payload 0mPP movement 0mPP calibration 3.1h
Matches today
2
scheduled
ELITE edges
0
across Kalshi + PP
STRONG edges
0
tier 2
MED edges
0
tier 3
Paper locks
6
Kalshi + PP
Real Money YTD
-$10.00
paper-gate restored
Qualifying skipped
0
filtered out today
Last refresh
16:17
2026-05-22 UTC
🏆 Best Bet (main-draw)
No main-draw Kalshi pick survived qualifying filter today.
🎯 Safest (P ≥ 65%)
Cristian Garin
Learner Tien vs Cristian Garin · Round 1 clay · LOW
68%
Heavy main-draw favorite · PAPER
Edge +29.4pp
Ask 39¢
💎 Biggest Payout (ELITE)
No ELITE main-draw longshot today.
#MatchTournamentRoundSurfaceStartELO AELO BELO diffKalshi event
1Victoria Mboko vs Jaqueline CristianInternationaux de Strasbourg presented by MammotionSemifinalclayMay 22 14:3517041635+69KXWTAMATCH-26MAY22MBOCRI
2Alex De Minaur vs Tommy PaulBitpanda Hamburg OpenSemifinalclayMay 22 15:4016521748-96KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY22DEPAU-1
#MatchOur pickOur PMkt PAskEdgeTierDecisionVol 24hSurfaceRoundEV/$
1Iga Swiatek vs Emerson JonesEmerson Jones53.7%6.0%6¢+47.7ppLOWPAPER1630clayRound 1+0.477
2Elena Rybakina vs Veronika ErjavecVeronika Erjavec49.8%4.0%4¢+45.8ppLOWSKIP1736clayRound 1+0.458
3Eliot Spizzirri vs Frances TiafoeEliot Spizzirri51.6%9.0%9¢+42.6ppLOWPAPER422hardRound Of 128+0.426
4Anna Bondar vs Elina SvitolinaAnna Bondar55.9%17.0%17¢+38.9ppLOWPAPER32clayRound 1+0.389
5Donna Vekic vs Alice TubelloAlice Tubello63.3%25.0%25¢+38.3ppLOWPAPER279clayRound 1+0.383
6Akasha Urhobo vs Katie BoulterAkasha Urhobo67.4%30.0%30¢+37.4ppLOWPAPER626clayRound 1+0.374
7Renata Zarazua vs Diana ShnaiderRenata Zarazua51.0%14.0%14¢+37.0ppLOWPAPER1232clayRound 1+0.370
8Maya Joint vs Anastasia PotapovaMaya Joint49.7%13.0%13¢+36.7ppLOWPAPER1825clayRound 1+0.367
9Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Marta KostyukOksana Selekhmeteva45.0%10.0%10¢+35.0ppLOWPAPER251clayRound 1+0.350
10Tatjana Maria vs Elise MertensTatjana Maria41.9%7.0%7¢+35.0ppLOWPAPER2342clayRound 1+0.349
11Katerina Siniakova vs Simona WaltertSimona Waltert66.9%33.0%33¢+33.9ppLOWPAPER334clayRound 1+0.339
12Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah vs Amanda AnisimovaTiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah38.2%6.0%6¢+32.2ppLOWPAPER3896clayRound 1+0.322
13Karen Khachanov vs Arthur GeaArthur Gea53.3%22.0%22¢+31.3ppLOWPAPER1330clayRound 1+0.313
14Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Bouzas ManeiroJessica Bouzas Maneiro38.0%7.0%7¢+31.0ppLOWPAPER4685clayRound 1+0.310
15Hanne Vandewinkel vs Madison KeysHanne Vandewinkel42.3%12.0%12¢+30.3ppLOWPAPER2199clayRound 1+0.303
16Sorana Cirstea vs Ksenia EfremovaKsenia Efremova35.9%6.0%6¢+29.9ppLOWPAPER1341clayRound 1+0.299
17Jacob Fearnley vs Juan Manuel CerundoloJacob Fearnley53.6%24.0%24¢+29.6ppLOWPAPER46hardRound Of 128+0.296
18Learner Tien vs Cristian GarinCristian Garin68.4%39.0%39¢+29.4ppLOWPAPER925clayRound 1+0.294
19Ann Li vs Shuai ZhangShuai Zhang58.8%30.0%30¢+28.8ppLOWPAPER255hardRound Of 128+0.288
20Adam Walton vs Daniil MedvedevAdam Walton35.7%7.0%7¢+28.7ppLOWPAPER2727clayRound 1+0.287
21Kimberly Birrell vs Jessica PegulaKimberly Birrell33.7%5.0%5¢+28.7ppLOWPAPER6750clayRound 1+0.287
22Mirra Andreeva vs Fiona FerroFiona Ferro35.4%7.0%7¢+28.4ppLOWPAPER985clayRound 1+0.284
23Benjamin Bonzi vs Alexander ZverevBenjamin Bonzi34.2%6.0%6¢+28.2ppLOWPAPER5469hardRound Of 128+0.282
24Victoria Mboko vs Jaqueline CristianJaqueline Cristian44.8%17.0%17¢+27.8ppLOWPAPER941476claySemifinal+0.278
25Alexei Popyrin vs Zachary SvajdaZachary Svajda39.3%13.0%13¢+26.3ppLOWPAPER1840clayRound 1+0.263
26Anastasia Zakharova vs Karolina MuchovaAnastasia Zakharova39.7%14.0%14¢+25.7ppLOWPAPER33clayRound 1+0.257
27Kamil Majchrzak vs Alejandro TabiloKamil Majchrzak48.5%23.0%23¢+25.5ppLOWPAPER20clayRound 1+0.255
28Victoria Mboko vs Nikola BartunkovaNikola Bartunkova50.2%25.0%25¢+25.2ppLOWPAPER548clayRound 1+0.252
29Tommy Paul vs Rinky HijikataRinky Hijikata31.8%7.0%7¢+24.8ppLOWPAPER1027clayRound 1+0.248
30Taylor Fritz vs Nishesh BasavareddyNishesh Basavareddy50.7%26.0%26¢+24.7ppLOWPAPER14876clayRound 1+0.247
31Francisco Cerundolo vs Botic Van de ZandschulpBotic Van de Zandschulp42.5%18.0%18¢+24.5ppLOWPAPER40hardRound Of 128+0.245
32Janice Tjen vs Emma NavarroJanice Tjen52.2%28.0%28¢+24.2ppLOWPAPER1402clayRound 1+0.242
33Lois Boisson vs Anna KalinskayaLois Boisson62.7%39.0%39¢+23.7ppLOWPAPER426clayRound 1+0.237
34Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Terence AtmaneThanasi Kokkinakis52.4%29.0%29¢+23.4ppLOWPAPER1356clayRound 1+0.234
35Jiri Lehecka vs Pablo Carreno BustaPablo Carreno Busta48.4%25.0%25¢+23.4ppLOWPAPER692clayRound 1+0.233
36Liudmila Samsonova vs Jil TeichmannJil Teichmann48.9%26.0%26¢+22.9ppLOWPAPER1clayRound 1+0.229
37Alex de Minaur vs Tommy PaulTommy Paul49.5%27.0%27¢+22.5ppLOWPAPER1040750hardSemifinal+0.225
38Adrian Mannarino vs Ugo HumbertAdrian Mannarino37.2%15.0%15¢+22.2ppLOWPAPER1207hardRound Of 128+0.222
39Alycia Parks vs Leylah FernandezAlycia Parks45.9%24.0%24¢+21.9ppLOWPAPER409clayRound 1+0.218
40Gabriel Diallo vs James DuckworthJames Duckworth60.0%39.0%39¢+20.9ppLOWPAPER1103clayRound 1+0.209
41Alexander Shevchenko vs Alex MichelsenAlexander Shevchenko59.6%39.0%39¢+20.6ppLOWPAPER618clayRound 1+0.206
42Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak DjokovicGiovanni Mpetshi Perricard32.5%12.0%12¢+20.5ppLOWPAPER3144hardRound Of 128+0.205
43Alexandre Muller vs Stefanos TsitsipasAlexandre Muller38.5%18.0%18¢+20.5ppLOWPAPER26hardRound Of 128+0.205
44Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Rafael JodarAleksandar Kovacevic30.1%10.0%10¢+20.1ppLOWPAPER18530clayRound 1+0.201
45Daniel Merida vs Ben SheltonDaniel Merida45.0%25.0%25¢+20.0ppLOWPAPER18hardRound Of 128+0.200
46Andrey Rublev vs Ignacio BuseIgnacio Buse52.8%33.0%33¢+19.8ppLOWPAPER4759clayRound 1+0.198
47Ella Seidel vs Jelena OstapenkoElla Seidel41.8%22.0%22¢+19.8ppLOWPAPER36clayRound 1+0.198
48Anna Blinkova vs Yuliia StarodubtsevaAnna Blinkova45.4%27.0%27¢+18.4ppLOWPAPER0clayRound 1+0.184
49Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Damir DzumhurDamir Dzumhur35.3%17.0%17¢+18.3ppLOWPAPER339hardRound Of 128+0.183
50Raphael Collignon vs Aleksandar VukicAleksandar Vukic27.2%9.0%9¢+18.2ppLOWPAPER136clayRound 1+0.182
51Miomir Kecmanovic vs Fabian MarozsanFabian Marozsan59.7%42.0%42¢+17.7ppLOWPAPER1559clayRound 1+0.177
52Taylor Townsend vs Coco GauffTaylor Townsend30.0%13.0%13¢+17.0ppLOWPAPER1371clayRound 1+0.170
53Naomi Osaka vs Laura SiegemundLaura Siegemund42.8%26.0%26¢+16.8ppLOWPAPER281clayRound 1+0.168
54Francisco Comesana vs Ethan QuinnEthan Quinn62.6%46.0%46¢+16.6ppLOWPAPER39hardRound Of 128+0.166
55Hamad Medjedovic vs Yannick HanfmannYannick Hanfmann53.6%37.0%37¢+16.6ppLOWPAPER191hardRound Of 128+0.166
56Brandon Nakashima vs Roberto Bautista AgutRoberto Bautista Agut41.5%25.0%25¢+16.5ppLOWPAPER62hardRound Of 128+0.165
57Clara Burel vs Katie VolynetsClara Burel37.4%21.0%21¢+16.4ppLOWPAPER38clayRound 1+0.164
58Jenson Brooksby vs Mariano NavoneJenson Brooksby34.5%19.0%19¢+15.5ppLOWPAPER423clayRound 1+0.155
59Stan Wawrinka vs Arthur FilsStan Wawrinka29.1%14.0%14¢+15.1ppLOWPAPER16087clayRound 1+0.151
60Zeynep Sonmez vs Daria KasatkinaZeynep Sonmez45.0%30.0%30¢+15.0ppLOWPAPER330clayRound 1+0.150
61Moise Kouame vs Marin CilicMoise Kouame41.8%27.0%27¢+14.8ppLOWPAPER34clayRound 1+0.148
62Magda Linette vs Tereza ValentovaMagda Linette39.0%25.0%25¢+14.0ppLOWPAPER0clayRound 1+0.140
63Jaqueline Cristian vs Kamilla RakhimovaKamilla Rakhimova39.9%26.0%26¢+13.8ppLOWPAPER0clayRound 1+0.139
64Cameron Norrie vs Adolfo Daniel VallejoCameron Norrie64.8%51.0%51¢+13.8ppLOWPAPER62hardRound Of 128+0.138
65Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard StruffJan-Lennard Struff38.7%25.0%25¢+13.7ppLOWPAPER57clayRound 1+0.137
66Linda Noskova vs Maria SakkariMaria Sakkari44.0%31.0%31¢+13.0ppLOWPAPER994clayRound 1+0.130
67Xinyu Wang vs Lilli TaggerXinyu Wang54.1%42.0%42¢+12.2ppLOWPAPER11hardRound Of 128+0.122
68Viktorija Golubic vs Panna UdvardyPanna Udvardy64.6%53.0%53¢+11.6ppLOWPAPER0clayRound 1+0.116
69Talia Gibson vs Yulia PutintsevaTalia Gibson41.1%30.0%30¢+11.1ppLOWPAPER1159clayRound 1+0.111
70Daria Snigur vs Clara TausonDaria Snigur49.8%39.0%39¢+10.8ppLOWPAPER0clayRound 1+0.108
71Vit Kopriva vs Corentin MoutetVit Kopriva51.5%41.0%41¢+10.5ppLOWPAPER24hardRound Of 128+0.105
72Eva Lys vs Petra MarcinkoPetra Marcinko63.2%53.0%53¢+10.2ppLOWPAPER68clayRound 1+0.102
73Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Nuno BorgesNuno Borges43.1%33.0%33¢+10.1ppLOWPAPER2416hardRound Of 128+0.101
74Luciano Darderi vs Sebastian OfnerSebastian Ofner38.8%29.0%29¢+9.8ppLOWPAPER30clayRound 1+0.098
75Sofia Kenin vs Peyton StearnsSofia Kenin46.6%37.0%37¢+9.6ppLOWPAPER53clayRound 1+0.096
76Matteo Berrettini vs Marton FucsovicsMarton Fucsovics45.2%36.0%36¢+9.2ppLOWPAPER86hardRound Of 128+0.092
77Hailey Baptiste vs Barbora KrejcikovaHailey Baptiste63.2%55.0%55¢+8.2ppLOWPAPER105clayRound 1+0.082
78Tomas Machac vs Zizou BergsZizou Bergs48.0%40.0%40¢+8.0ppLOWPAPER465clayRound 1+0.080
79Titouan Droguet vs Jakub MensikTitouan Droguet41.0%33.0%33¢+8.0ppLOWPAPER2950hardRound Of 128+0.080
80Solana Sierra vs Emma RaducanuSolana Sierra65.8%60.0%60¢+5.8ppLOWPAPER295clayRound 1+0.058
81Jaume Munar vs Hubert HurkaczJaume Munar53.5%48.0%48¢+5.5ppLOWPAPER53hardRound Of 128+0.055
82Ajla Tomljanovic vs Caty McNallyAjla Tomljanovic34.3%29.0%29¢+5.3ppLOWPAPER1clayRound 1+0.053
83Alexandra Eala vs Iva JovicAlexandra Eala36.1%31.0%31¢+5.1ppLOWPAPER3315clayRound 1+0.051
84Mattia Bellucci vs Quentin HalysMattia Bellucci53.2%49.0%49¢+4.2ppLOWPAPER466clayRound 1+0.042
85Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Francesca JonesFrancesca Jones65.0%61.0%61¢+4.0ppLOWPAPER216clayRound 1+0.040
86Daniel Altmaier vs Felix Auger-AliassimeDaniel Altmaier29.2%26.0%26¢+3.2ppLOWPAPER85hardRound Of 128+0.032
87Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Camila OsorioEkaterina Alexandrova47.9%45.0%45¢+2.9ppLOWSKIP458clayRound 1+0.029
88Marcos Giron vs Yibing WuYibing Wu54.7%52.0%52¢+2.7ppLOWPAPER19hardRound Of 128+0.027
89Jasmine Paolini vs Dayana YastremskaDayana Yastremska45.5%43.0%43¢+2.5ppLOWPAPER81clayRound 1+0.025
90Diane Parry vs Anhelina KalininaDiane Parry29.3%27.0%27¢+2.3ppLOWPAPER1108clayRound 1+0.023
91Gael Monfils vs Hugo GastonHugo Gaston54.1%52.0%52¢+2.1ppLOWPAPER1033clayRound 1+0.021
92Sebastian Baez vs Roman Andres BurruchagaSebastian Baez58.0%56.0%56¢+2.0ppLOWSKIP0hardRound Of 128+0.020
93Luca Van Assche vs Patrick KypsonPatrick Kypson46.6%48.0%48¢-1.4ppLOWSKIP9hardRound Of 128-0.014
94Magdalena Frech vs Elena-Gabriela RuseElena-Gabriela Ruse59.7%61.0%61¢-1.3ppLOWSKIP0clayRound 1-0.013
95Tamara Korpatsch vs Sara Sorribes TormoSara Sorribes Tormo46.8%46.0%46¢+0.8ppLOWSKIP0clayRound 1+0.008
96Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo ArnaldiMatteo Arnaldi56.6%56.0%56¢+0.6ppLOWSKIP35clayRound 1+0.006
#PlayerStatPP lineOur projEdge %SideTierOppSurfaceDemonPayout
1Emerson Jones🟨 WARMTotal Games Won4.510.78+139.6%MORELOWIga Swiatekclay—0.5x
2Learner Tien🧊 COLDTotal Tie Breaks0.50.12+75.6%LESSLOWCristian Garinclay—1.0x
3Luciano Darderi🟨 WARMTotal Tie Breaks0.50.12+75.3%LESSLOWSebastian Ofnerclay—1.0x
4Alexander Bublik🧊 COLDTotal Tie Breaks0.50.12+75.3%LESSLOWJan-Lennard Struffclay—1.0x
5Anna Bondar🟨 WARMTotal Games Won6.511.06+70.1%MORELOWElina Svitolinaclay—0.5x
6Jessica Bouzas ManeiroTotal Games Won5.59.30+69.1%MORELOWAryna Sabalenkaclay—0.5x
7Fiona Ferro🟨 WARMTotal Games Won5.59.18+66.9%MORELOWMirra Andreevaclay—0.5x
8Kimberly BirrellTotal Games Won5.59.00+63.7%MORELOWJessica Pegulaclay—0.5x
9Renata Zarazua🟨 WARMTotal Games Won6.510.55+62.3%MORELOWDiana Shnaiderclay—0.5x
10Maya Joint⏳ RTRNTotal Games Won6.510.51+61.8%MORELOWAnastasia Potapovaclay—0.5x
11Learner Tien🧊 COLDTotal Games Won19.58.63+55.7%LESSLOWCristian Garinclay—0.5x
12Miomir Kecmanovic🧊 COLDTotal Games Won20.59.46+53.9%LESSLOWFabian Marozsanclay—0.5x
13Gabriel Diallo🧊 COLDTotal Games Won20.59.47+53.8%LESSLOWJames Duckworthclay—0.5x
14Jaume Munar🧊 COLDTotal Games Won19.59.14+53.1%LESSLOWHubert Hurkaczclay—0.5x
15Iga SwiatekTotal Games16.024.46+52.9%MORELOWEmerson Jonesclay—0.5x
16Jakub Mensik🟨 WARMTotal Games Won20.59.79+52.3%LESSLOWTitouan Droguetclay—0.5x
17Oksana Selekhmeteva🧊 COLDTotal Games Won6.59.88+52.0%MORELOWMarta Kostyukclay—0.5x
18Sebastian BaezTotal Games Won19.59.40+51.8%LESSLOWRoman Andres Burruchagaclay—0.5x
19Alex Michelsen🧊 COLDTotal Games Won19.59.43+51.6%LESSLOWAlexander Shevchenkoclay—0.5x
20Taylor Fritz⏳ RTRNTotal Games Won21.510.43+51.5%LESSLOWNishesh Basavareddyclay—0.5x
21Karen Khachanov🧊 COLDTotal Games Won20.510.02+51.1%LESSLOWArthur Geaclay—0.5x
22Marcos GironTotal Games Won19.59.60+50.8%LESSLOWYibing Wuclay—0.5x
23Patrick Kypson🧊 COLDTotal Games Won19.59.66+50.4%LESSLOWLuca Van Asscheclay—0.5x
24Cameron Norrie🟨 WARMTotal Tie Breaks0.50.25+50.4%LESSLOWAdolfo Daniel Vallejoclay—1.0x
25Alex Michelsen🧊 COLDTotal Tie Breaks0.50.25+50.3%LESSLOWAlexander Shevchenkoclay—1.0x
26Patrick Kypson🧊 COLDTotal Tie Breaks0.50.25+50.1%LESSLOWLuca Van Asscheclay—1.0x
27Miomir Kecmanovic🧊 COLDTotal Tie Breaks0.50.25+50.1%LESSLOWFabian Marozsanclay—1.0x
28Nuno Borges🧊 COLDTotal Games Won18.59.24+50.1%LESSLOWTomas Martin Etcheverryclay—0.5x
29Ugo Humbert🧊 COLDTotal Tie Breaks0.50.25+50.0%LESSLOWAdrian Mannarinoclay—1.0x
30Cameron Norrie🟨 WARMTotal Games Won19.59.79+49.8%LESSLOWAdolfo Daniel Vallejoclay—0.5x
31Alejandro Davidovich FokinaTotal Games Won20.510.30+49.8%LESSLOWDamir Dzumhurclay—0.5x
32Tallon Griekspoor🧊 COLDTotal Games Won19.59.80+49.8%LESSLOWMatteo Arnaldiclay—0.5x
33Terence AtmaneTotal Games Won20.510.30+49.7%LESSLOWThanasi Kokkinakisclay—0.5x
34Andrey Rublev🟨 WARMTotal Games Won20.510.33+49.6%LESSLOWIgnacio Buseclay—0.5x
35Ugo Humbert🧊 COLDTotal Games Won20.510.36+49.5%LESSLOWAdrian Mannarinoclay—0.5x
36Francisco Comesana🧊 COLDTotal Games Won19.59.87+49.4%LESSLOWEthan Quinnclay—0.5x
37Gael Monfils🧊 COLDTotal Games Won19.59.91+49.2%LESSLOWHugo Gastonclay—0.5x
38Quentin Halys🧊 COLDTotal Games Won19.59.97+48.9%LESSLOWMattia Bellucciclay—0.5x
39Corentin MoutetTotal Games Won19.59.98+48.8%LESSLOWVit Koprivaclay—0.5x
40Jan-Lennard Struff🧊 COLDTotal Games Won17.59.01+48.5%LESSLOWAlexander Bublikclay—0.5x
41Hamad Medjedovic⏳ RTRNTotal Games Won20.510.58+48.4%LESSLOWYannick Hanfmannclay—0.5x
42Marton FucsovicsTotal Games Won18.59.65+47.8%LESSLOWMatteo Berrettiniclay—0.5x
43Matteo Arnaldi🟨 WARMTotal Games Won20.510.71+47.7%LESSLOWTallon Griekspoorclay—0.5x
44Brandon NakashimaTotal Games Won20.510.84+47.1%LESSLOWRoberto Bautista Agutclay—0.5x
45Jiri Lehecka🟨 WARMTotal Games Won20.010.58+47.1%LESSLOWPablo Carreno Bustaclay—0.5x
46Zizou Bergs🟨 WARMTotal Games Won19.510.36+46.9%LESSLOWTomas Machacclay—0.5x
47Yannick Hanfmann🟨 WARMTotal Games Won19.510.38+46.8%LESSLOWHamad Medjedovicclay—0.5x
48Mattia BellucciTotal Games Won19.510.44+46.5%LESSLOWQuentin Halysclay—0.5x
49Felix Auger-Aliassime🟨 WARMTotal Games Won19.510.45+46.4%LESSLOWDaniel Altmaierclay—0.5x
50Alexander Bublik🧊 COLDTotal Games Won20.511.01+46.3%LESSLOWJan-Lennard Struffclay—0.5x
51Hanne Vandewinkel🧊 COLDTotal Games Won6.59.50+46.2%MORELOWMadison Keysclay—0.5x
52Hugo GastonTotal Games Won19.510.51+46.1%LESSLOWGael Monfilsclay—0.5x
53Ethan QuinnTotal Games Won19.510.54+45.9%LESSLOWFrancisco Comesanaclay—0.5x
54Sebastian OfnerTotal Games Won17.59.48+45.8%LESSLOWLuciano Dardericlay—0.5x
55Alejandro Tabilo🟨 WARMTotal Games Won19.510.57+45.8%LESSLOWKamil Majchrzakclay—0.5x
56Tomas MachacTotal Games Won19.510.59+45.7%LESSLOWZizou Bergsclay—0.5x
57Alexei PopyrinTotal Games Won20.511.22+45.3%LESSLOWZachary Svajdaclay—0.5x
58Tomas Martin Etcheverry🟨 WARMTotal Games Won20.511.29+44.9%LESSLOWNuno Borgesclay—0.5x
59Roberto Bautista Agut🧊 COLDTotal Games Won17.59.67+44.8%LESSLOWBrandon Nakashimaclay—0.5x
60Matteo BerrettiniTotal Games Won20.511.35+44.6%LESSLOWMarton Fucsovicsclay—0.5x
61Luca Van AsscheTotal Games Won19.510.82+44.5%LESSLOWPatrick Kypsonclay—0.5x
62Moise KouameTotal Games Won17.59.79+44.0%LESSLOWMarin Cilicclay—0.5x
63Novak Djokovic⏳ RTRNTotal Games Won20.511.57+43.6%LESSLOWGiovanni Mpetshi Perricardclay—0.5x
64Alexandre MullerTotal Games Won15.58.75+43.5%LESSLOWStefanos Tsitsipasclay—0.5x
65Luciano Darderi🟨 WARMTotal Games Won20.511.60+43.4%LESSLOWSebastian Ofnerclay—0.5x
66Nishesh Basavareddy🟨 WARMTotal Games Won18.510.49+43.3%LESSLOWTaylor Fritzclay—0.5x
67Fabian MarozsanTotal Games Won19.511.07+43.2%LESSLOWMiomir Kecmanovicclay—0.5x
68James Duckworth⏳ RTRNTotal Games Won19.511.07+43.2%LESSLOWGabriel Dialloclay—0.5x
69Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard⏳ RTRNTotal Games Won16.59.49+42.5%LESSLOWNovak Djokovicclay—0.5x
70Adolfo Daniel Vallejo🟨 WARMTotal Games Won19.511.23+42.4%LESSLOWCameron Norrieclay—0.5x
71Juan Manuel Cerundolo🟨 WARMTotal Games Won19.511.26+42.3%LESSLOWJacob Fearnleyclay—0.5x
72Marin CilicTotal Games Won19.511.26+42.2%LESSLOWMoise Kouameclay—0.5x
73Ignacio BuseTotal Games Won18.510.71+42.1%LESSLOWAndrey Rublevclay—0.5x
74Hubert Hurkacz🟨 WARMTotal Games Won19.511.38+41.6%LESSLOWJaume Munarclay—0.5x
75Yibing Wu🟨 WARMTotal Games Won19.511.39+41.6%LESSLOWMarcos Gironclay—0.5x
76Pablo Carreno Busta🟨 WARMTotal Games Won17.510.39+40.6%LESSLOWJiri Leheckaclay—0.5x
77Vit Kopriva🟨 WARMTotal Games Won18.511.02+40.4%LESSLOWCorentin Moutetclay—0.5x
78Stefanos TsitsipasTotal Games Won20.512.24+40.3%LESSLOWAlexandre Mullerclay—0.5x
79Alexander ShevchenkoTotal Games Won18.511.06+40.2%LESSLOWAlex Michelsenclay—0.5x
80Daniel AltmaierTotal Games Won17.510.56+39.7%LESSLOWFelix Auger-Aliassimeclay—0.5x
81Thanasi Kokkinakis⏳ RTRNTotal Games Won17.510.63+39.3%LESSLOWTerence Atmaneclay—0.5x
82Titouan Droguet🟨 WARMTotal Games Won18.511.27+39.1%LESSLOWJakub Mensikclay—0.5x
83Sorana Cirstea🟨 WARMTotal Games17.023.60+38.8%MORELOWKsenia Efremovaclay—0.5x
84Jenson Brooksby🧊 COLDTotal Games Won14.58.93+38.4%LESSLOWMariano Navoneclay—0.5x
85Stan Wawrinka🧊 COLDTotal Games Won13.58.39+37.8%LESSLOWArthur Filsclay—0.5x
86Hubert Hurkacz🟨 WARMTotal Games39.524.59+37.8%LESSLOWJaume Munarclay—0.5x
87Arthur Fils🟨 WARMTotal Games Won19.512.16+37.7%LESSLOWStan Wawrinkaclay—0.5x
88Francisco Cerundolo🟨 WARMTotal Games Won19.512.28+37.0%LESSLOWBotic Van de Zandschulpclay—0.5x
89Jacob Fearnley⏳ RTRNTotal Games Won15.59.78+36.9%LESSLOWJuan Manuel Cerundoloclay—0.5x
90Learner Tien🧊 COLDTotal Games37.523.70+36.8%LESSLOWCristian Garinclay—0.5x
91Hamad Medjedovic⏳ RTRNTotal Games39.525.20+36.2%LESSLOWYannick Hanfmannclay—0.5x
92Alycia Parks🟨 WARMTotal Games Won7.510.21+36.2%MORELOWLeylah Fernandezclay—0.5x
93Tallon Griekspoor🧊 COLDTotal Games39.525.22+36.2%LESSLOWMatteo Arnaldiclay—0.5x
94Amanda Anisimova⏳ RTRNTotal Games17.523.78+35.9%MORELOWTiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonahclay—0.5x
95Quentin Halys🧊 COLDTotal Games39.525.34+35.9%LESSLOWMattia Bellucciclay—0.5x
96Gabriel Diallo🧊 COLDTotal Games39.025.07+35.7%LESSLOWJames Duckworthclay—0.5x
97Cristian GarinTotal Games Won18.511.90+35.7%LESSLOWLearner Tienclay—0.5x
98Jakub Mensik🟨 WARMTotal Games38.524.82+35.5%LESSLOWTitouan Droguetclay—0.5x
99Tomas Martin Etcheverry🟨 WARMTotal Games38.524.84+35.5%LESSLOWNuno Borgesclay—0.5x
100Marta Kostyuk🟨 WARMTotal Games18.024.38+35.4%MORELOWOksana Selekhmetevaclay—0.5x
101Botic Van de Zandschulp⏳ RTRNTotal Games Won13.58.72+35.4%LESSLOWFrancisco Cerundoloclay—0.5x
102Sebastian BaezTotal Games37.524.29+35.2%LESSLOWRoman Andres Burruchagaclay—0.5x
103Arthur GeaTotal Games Won16.010.38+35.1%LESSLOWKaren Khachanovclay—0.5x
104Francisco Comesana🧊 COLDTotal Games38.525.14+34.7%LESSLOWEthan Quinnclay—0.5x
105Novak Djokovic⏳ RTRNTotal Games37.524.51+34.6%LESSLOWGiovanni Mpetshi Perricardclay—0.5x
106Marcos GironTotal Games37.524.59+34.4%LESSLOWYibing Wuclay—0.5x
107Aryna Sabalenka🟨 WARMTotal Games17.523.50+34.3%MORELOWJessica Bouzas Maneiroclay—0.5x
108Aleksandar Vukic🧊 COLDTotal Games Won12.58.23+34.1%LESSLOWRaphael Collignonclay—0.5x
109Adrian Mannarino🧊 COLDTotal Games Won14.59.55+34.1%LESSLOWUgo Humbertclay—0.5x
110Miomir Kecmanovic🧊 COLDTotal Games38.025.03+34.1%LESSLOWFabian Marozsanclay—0.5x
111Andrey Rublev🟨 WARMTotal Games38.025.17+33.8%LESSLOWIgnacio Buseclay—0.5x
112Alexander Bublik🧊 COLDTotal Games37.024.54+33.7%LESSLOWJan-Lennard Struffclay—0.5x
113Cameron Norrie🟨 WARMTotal Games37.524.88+33.7%LESSLOWAdolfo Daniel Vallejoclay—0.5x
114Matteo BerrettiniTotal Games37.024.60+33.5%LESSLOWMarton Fucsovicsclay—0.5x
115Alex Michelsen🧊 COLDTotal Games37.525.05+33.2%LESSLOWAlexander Shevchenkoclay—0.5x
116Corentin MoutetTotal Games37.525.09+33.1%LESSLOWVit Koprivaclay—0.5x
117Kamil Majchrzak⏳ RTRNTotal Games Won15.510.37+33.1%LESSLOWAlejandro Tabiloclay—0.5x
118Elise MertensTotal Games18.023.94+33.0%MORELOWTatjana Mariaclay—0.5x
119Patrick Kypson🧊 COLDTotal Games37.525.15+33.0%LESSLOWLuca Van Asscheclay—0.5x
120Luciano Darderi🟨 WARMTotal Games36.524.50+32.9%LESSLOWSebastian Ofnerclay—0.5x
121Taylor Fritz⏳ RTRNTotal Games37.525.18+32.9%LESSLOWNishesh Basavareddyclay—0.5x
122Terence AtmaneTotal Games37.525.23+32.7%LESSLOWThanasi Kokkinakisclay—0.5x
123Tomas MachacTotal Games37.525.23+32.7%LESSLOWZizou Bergsclay—0.5x
124Hugo GastonTotal Games37.525.34+32.4%LESSLOWGael Monfilsclay—0.5x
125Arthur Fils🟨 WARMTotal Games33.522.79+32.0%LESSLOWStan Wawrinkaclay—0.5x
126Aleksandar Kovacevic🧊 COLDTotal Games Won12.58.51+31.9%LESSLOWRafael Jodarclay—0.5x
127Felix Auger-Aliassime🟨 WARMTotal Games37.025.20+31.9%LESSLOWDaniel Altmaierclay—0.5x
128Anastasia Potapova🟨 WARMTotal Games18.524.36+31.7%MORELOWMaya Jointclay—0.5x
129Madison Keys⏳ RTRNTotal Games18.524.30+31.4%MORELOWHanne Vandewinkelclay—0.5x
130Mirra Andreeva🟨 WARMTotal Games17.522.98+31.3%MORELOWFiona Ferroclay—0.5x
131Damir DzumhurTotal Games Won15.510.66+31.2%LESSLOWAlejandro Davidovich Fokinaclay—0.5x
132Jiri Lehecka🟨 WARMTotal Games36.525.13+31.2%LESSLOWPablo Carreno Bustaclay—0.5x
133Brandon NakashimaTotal Games36.525.17+31.0%LESSLOWRoberto Bautista Agutclay—0.5x
134Alejandro Tabilo🟨 WARMTotal Games36.525.20+31.0%LESSLOWKamil Majchrzakclay—0.5x
135Zachary Svajda🧊 COLDTotal Games Won13.59.32+30.9%LESSLOWAlexei Popyrinclay—0.5x
136Karen Khachanov🧊 COLDTotal Games36.525.21+30.9%LESSLOWArthur Geaclay—0.5x
137Raphael Collignon⏳ RTRNTotal Games32.022.18+30.7%LESSLOWAleksandar Vukicclay—0.5x
138Mariano Navone🟨 WARMTotal Sets3.52.46+29.7%LESSLOWJenson Brooksbyclay—1.0x
139Novak Djokovic⏳ RTRNTotal Sets3.52.46+29.6%LESSLOWGiovanni Mpetshi Perricardclay—1.0x
140Karolina Muchova⏳ RTRNTotal Games18.523.90+29.2%MORELOWAnastasia Zakharovaclay—0.5x
141Francisco Cerundolo🟨 WARMTotal Sets3.52.49+29.0%LESSLOWBotic Van de Zandschulpclay—1.0x
142Jessica Pegula🟨 WARMTotal Games17.522.57+29.0%MORELOWKimberly Birrellclay—0.5x
143Ugo Humbert🧊 COLDTotal Sets3.52.50+28.6%LESSLOWAdrian Mannarinoclay—1.0x
144Mariano Navone🟨 WARMTotal Games34.024.26+28.6%LESSLOWJenson Brooksbyclay—0.5x
145Stefanos TsitsipasTotal Games35.025.17+28.1%LESSLOWAlexandre Mullerclay—0.5x
146Ugo Humbert🧊 COLDTotal Games34.525.16+27.1%LESSLOWAdrian Mannarinoclay—0.5x
147Alejandro Davidovich FokinaTotal Games34.525.18+27.0%LESSLOWDamir Dzumhurclay—0.5x
148Akasha Urhobo🟨 WARMTotal Games Won9.512.04+26.7%MORELOWKatie Boulterclay—0.5x
149Juan Manuel Cerundolo🟨 WARMTotal Games34.024.91+26.7%LESSLOWJacob Fearnleyclay—0.5x
150Alexei PopyrinTotal Games34.025.05+26.3%LESSLOWZachary Svajdaclay—0.5x
151Rafael Jodar🟨 WARMTotal Games31.523.22+26.3%LESSLOWAleksandar Kovacevicclay—0.5x
152Katie VolynetsTotal Games19.023.86+25.6%MORELOWClara Burelclay—0.5x
153Francisco Comesana🧊 COLDTotal Tie Breaks0.50.37+25.5%LESSLOWEthan Quinnclay—1.0x
154Brandon NakashimaTotal Tie Breaks0.50.37+25.3%LESSLOWRoberto Bautista Agutclay—1.0x
155Francisco Cerundolo🟨 WARMTotal Games33.525.06+25.2%LESSLOWBotic Van de Zandschulpclay—0.5x
156Alejandro Tabilo🟨 WARMTotal Tie Breaks0.50.37+25.1%LESSLOWKamil Majchrzakclay—1.0x
157Jiri Lehecka🟨 WARMTotal Tie Breaks0.50.37+25.0%LESSLOWPablo Carreno Bustaclay—1.0x
158Leylah Fernandez🟨 WARMTotal Games19.524.38+25.0%MORELOWAlycia Parksclay—0.5x
159Anastasia Zakharova🧊 COLDTotal Games Won7.59.37+25.0%MORELOWKarolina Muchovaclay—0.5x
160Tomas MachacTotal Tie Breaks0.50.38+24.9%LESSLOWZizou Bergsclay—1.0x
161Jelena OstapenkoTotal Games19.524.28+24.5%MORELOWElla Seidelclay—0.5x
162Elina SvitolinaTotal Games19.524.20+24.1%MORELOWAnna Bondarclay—0.5x
163Nikola BartunkovaTotal Games Won8.510.52+23.7%MORELOWVictoria Mbokoclay—0.5x
164Alice Tubello🟨 WARMTotal Games Won9.511.71+23.3%MORELOWDonna Vekicclay—0.5x
165Jaqueline CristianTotal Games20.024.15+20.7%MORELOWKamilla Rakhimovaclay—0.5x
166Tommy Paul🟨 WARMTotal Games28.522.83+19.9%LESSLOWRinky Hijikataclay—0.5x
167Sara Sorribes Tormo🟨 WARMTotal Games20.524.48+19.4%MORELOWTamara Korpatschclay—0.5x
168Clara Tauson⏳ RTRNTotal Games20.524.44+19.2%MORELOWDaria Snigurclay—0.5x
169Clement Tabur🟨 WARMTotal Games Won7.58.94+19.2%MORELOWJannik Sinnerclay—0.5x
170Liudmila SamsonovaTotal Games20.524.42+19.1%MORELOWJil Teichmannclay—0.5x
171Daria Kasatkina🟨 WARMTotal Games20.524.31+18.6%MORELOWZeynep Sonmezclay—0.5x
172Emma Navarro⏳ RTRNTotal Games20.524.28+18.4%MORELOWJanice Tjenclay—0.5x
173Frances Tiafoe⏳ RTRNTotal Games30.525.11+17.7%LESSLOWEliot Spizzirriclay—0.5x
174Katie BoulterTotal Games19.022.31+17.4%MORELOWAkasha Urhoboclay—0.5x
175Naomi Osaka🟨 WARMTotal Games20.523.99+17.0%MORELOWLaura Siegemundclay—0.5x
176Camila OsorioTotal Games21.024.56+17.0%MORELOWEkaterina Alexandrovaclay—0.5x
177Benjamin BonziTotal Games Won10.58.77+16.5%LESSLOWAlexander Zverevclay—0.5x
178Peyton StearnsTotal Games21.024.43+16.3%MORELOWSofia Keninclay—0.5x
179Yulia PutintsevaTotal Games20.523.76+15.9%MORELOWTalia Gibsonclay—0.5x
180Rinky HijikataTotal Games Won10.58.88+15.4%LESSLOWTommy Paulclay—0.5x
181Linda Noskova🟨 WARMTotal Games Won12.510.66+14.7%LESSLOWMaria Sakkariclay—0.5x
182Clara Burel🧊 COLDTotal Games Won8.09.15+14.4%MORELOWKatie Volynetsclay—0.5x
183Daniil MedvedevTotal Games28.524.48+14.1%LESSLOWAdam Waltonclay—0.5x
184Linda Noskova🟨 WARMTotal Games21.524.52+14.0%MORELOWMaria Sakkariclay—0.5x
185Ann LiTotal Games20.523.33+13.8%MORELOWShuai Zhangclay—0.5x
186Jil Teichmann🧊 COLDTotal Games Won9.010.23+13.7%MORELOWLiudmila Samsonovaclay—0.5x
187Donna Vekic🟨 WARMTotal Games20.523.25+13.4%MORELOWAlice Tubelloclay—0.5x
188Coco Gauff🟨 WARMTotal Games19.021.49+13.1%MORELOWTaylor Townsendclay—0.5x
189Eliot Spizzirri⏳ RTRNTotal Games Won11.510.01+12.9%LESSLOWFrances Tiafoeclay—0.5x
190Ella Seidel🧊 COLDTotal Games Won8.59.56+12.5%MORELOWJelena Ostapenkoclay—0.5x
191Alexandra EalaTotal Games Won10.59.27+11.7%LESSLOWIva Jovicclay—0.5x
192Kamilla Rakhimova🧊 COLDTotal Games Won8.59.45+11.2%MORELOWJaqueline Cristianclay—0.5x
193Janice Tjen🧊 COLDTotal Games Won9.510.56+11.1%MORELOWEmma Navarroclay—0.5x
194Sofia KeninTotal Games Won11.510.22+11.1%LESSLOWPeyton Stearnsclay—0.5x
195Jasmine Paolini🧊 COLDTotal Games21.523.89+11.1%MORELOWDayana Yastremskaclay—0.5x
196Magda LinetteTotal Games Won8.59.44+11.1%MORELOWTereza Valentovaclay—0.5x
197Elena-Gabriela Ruse🟨 WARMTotal Games21.523.84+10.9%MORELOWMagdalena Frechclay—0.5x
198Eva Lys🧊 COLDTotal Games21.523.77+10.6%MORELOWPetra Marcinkoclay—0.5x
199Katerina Siniakova🟨 WARMTotal Games20.522.53+9.9%MORELOWSimona Waltertclay—0.5x
200Daria Snigur🟨 WARMTotal Games Won11.510.52+8.5%LESSLOWClara Tausonclay—0.5x
201Anhelina Kalinina🟨 WARMTotal Games20.522.21+8.3%MORELOWDiane Parryclay—0.5x
202Barbora Krejcikova⏳ RTRNTotal Games21.523.25+8.2%MORELOWHailey Baptisteclay—0.5x
203Panna Udvardy🟨 WARMTotal Games21.523.07+7.3%MORELOWViktorija Golubicclay—0.5x
204Francesca JonesTotal Games21.523.00+7.0%MORELOWBeatriz Haddad Maiaclay—0.5x
205Maria Sakkari🧊 COLDTotal Games Won10.59.78+6.8%LESSLOWLinda Noskovaclay—0.5x
206Shuai Zhang🧊 COLDTotal Games Won9.58.86+6.7%LESSLOWAnn Liclay—0.5x
207Ajla Tomljanovic🧊 COLDTotal Games Won9.58.88+6.6%LESSLOWCaty McNallyclay—0.5x
208Zeynep Sonmez🟨 WARMTotal Games Won9.510.04+5.7%MORELOWDaria Kasatkinaclay—0.5x
209Solana Sierra🟨 WARMTotal Games21.522.69+5.5%MORELOWEmma Raducanuclay—0.5x
210Anna BlinkovaTotal Games Won9.510.02+5.5%MORELOWYuliia Starodubtsevaclay—0.5x
211Jannik Sinner🟨 WARMTotal Games24.523.24+5.2%LESSLOWClement Taburclay—0.5x
212Laura SiegemundTotal Games Won9.59.87+3.9%MORELOWNaomi Osakaclay—0.5x
213Anna KalinskayaTotal Games21.522.16+3.1%MORELOWLois Boissonclay—0.5x
214Talia GibsonTotal Games Won9.59.67+1.8%MORELOWYulia Putintsevaclay—0.5x
215Diane Parry🧊 COLDTotal Games Won8.58.38+1.4%LESSLOWAnhelina Kalininaclay—0.5x
216Lois Boisson🧊 COLDTotal Games Won11.511.51+0.1%MORELOWAnna Kalinskayaclay—0.5x
Kalshi tennis — 4 picks · $8.00 staked
Day 1 - paper only, grade EOD before scaling · locked 2026-05-22T13:11:18.517542+00:00
#MatchPickOur PAskEdgeTierSurfaceStakeStatusP&L
1Eliot Spizzirri vs Frances TiafoeEliot Spizzirri51.0%10¢41.0ppSTRONGhard$2.00OPEN+0.00
2Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah vs Amanda AnisimovaTiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah38.7%6¢32.7ppELITEclay$2.00OPEN+0.00
3Maria Carle vs Rebecca SramkovaMaria Carle54.1%35¢19.1ppELITEclay$2.00OPEN+0.00
4Leandro Riedi vs Pierre-Hugues HerbertLeandro Riedi55.0%45¢10.0ppELITEhard$2.00OPEN+0.00
PrizePicks tennis — 2 picks · $2.00 staked
Day 1 - paper only, grade EOD before scaling · locked 2026-05-22T13:11:18.454667+00:00
#PlayerStatLineOur projSideEdgeTierSurfaceStakeStatusP&L
1Eliot SpizzirriTotal Games Won11.510.01LESS12.9%MEDclay$1.00OPEN+0.00
2Shuai ZhangTotal Games Won9.58.86LESS6.7%MEDclay$1.00OPEN+0.00
Polymarket = retail/crypto sentiment. We can't bet there from CA, but the divergence vs Kalshi (sharp) reveals where the public is loading up. Generated 2026-05-22T09:17:42 · flagged threshold = ±3.0pp · 1 flagged futures / 0 flagged matches.

Grand-slam futures · ANY 2026 Slam (Kalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM vs Polymarket per-slam aggregate)

Polymarket "any-slam" probability computed naively as 1 - product(1 - p_slam). Positive divergence = public (Polymarket) more bullish than sharp (Kalshi). Sorted by |divergence|.
PlayerSharp (Kalshi)Public (Poly)ΔPoly per-slam
Novak Djokovic · exact11.0%18.3%+7.3pp · PUBLIC HIGHERFre 6%, Wim 10%, US 3%
Lorenzo Musetti · exact4.5%1.6%-2.9pp · SHARP HIGHERFre 0%, Wim 1%, US 1%
Daniil Medvedev · exact8.0%5.7%-2.3pp · SHARP HIGHERFre 2%, Wim 2%, US 2%
Alexander Zverev · exact12.0%14.2%+2.2pp · PUBLIC HIGHERFre 7%, Wim 5%, US 3%
Ben Shelton · exact4.5%6.5%+2.0pp · PUBLIC HIGHERFre 1%, Wim 3%, US 3%
Alex de Minaur · exact3.0%1.4%-1.6pp · SHARP HIGHERFre 1%, Wim 1%
Jack Draper · exact4.5%6.1%+1.6pp · PUBLIC HIGHERFre 0%, Wim 3%, US 3%
Felix Auger-Aliassime · exact2.0%0.4%-1.6pp · SHARP HIGHERWim 0%
Karen Khachanov · exact2.0%0.7%-1.3pp · SHARP HIGHERFre 0%, Wim 1%
Alexander Bublik · exact3.0%1.9%-1.1pp · SHARP HIGHERFre 0%, Wim 0%, US 1%
Frances Tiafoe · exact0.5%1.3%+0.8pp · PUBLIC HIGHERFre 0%, Wim 0%, US 1%
Jannik Sinner · exact94.5%95.1%+0.6pp · PUBLIC HIGHERFre 72%, Wim 66%, US 50%
Taylor Fritz · exact4.5%4.6%+0.1pp · PUBLIC HIGHERFre 0%, Wim 3%, US 2%
Casper Ruud · exact3.5%3.6%+0.1pp · PUBLIC HIGHERFre 3%, Wim 0%

Per-match overlaps

No active per-match overlaps right now (Polymarket tennis volume concentrates in Grand Slam futures).
!
Calibration provisional. Only 17 graded picks; verdicts not actionable until 50+.
Per-stat-type MAE (n_graded=17)
Bar width = MAE (lower = better). "INSUFFICIENT" = need more graded picks.
Total Games
n=4
Ours
PP
Us 6.45
PP 3.25
INSUFFICIENT_N
Total Games Won
n=12
Ours
PP
Us 4.93
PP 4.50
NULL
Total Tie Breaks
n=1
Ours
PP
Us 0.25
PP 0.50
INSUFFICIENT_N
Per-tier MAE
Bar width = MAE (lower = better). "INSUFFICIENT" = need more graded picks.
ELITE
n=16
Ours
PP
Us 4.94
PP 3.75
NULL
MED
n=0
Ours
PP
Us —
PP —
INSUFFICIENT_N
STRONG
n=1
Ours
PP
Us 6.23
PP 7.50
INSUFFICIENT_N
[!]
No AAR available yet.
Expected: ~/.claude/projects/.../memory/aar_tennis_<date>.md
#PlayerStatOppOpenLatestDiffAbsDirection
1Diane ParryTotal Games WonAnhelina Kalinina9.58.5-1.001.00DOWN
2Jenson BrooksbyTotal Games WonMariano Navone13.514.5+1.001.00UP
3Mattia BellucciTotal Games WonQuentin Halys20.519.5-1.001.00DOWN
4Maria SakkariTotal Games WonLinda Noskova11.510.5-1.001.00DOWN
5Nikola BartunkovaTotal Games WonVictoria Mboko9.58.5-1.001.00DOWN
6Tommy PaulTotal GamesRinky Hijikata29.528.5-1.001.00DOWN
7Marin CilicTotal Games WonMoise Kouame20.519.5-1.001.00DOWN
8Anna BlinkovaTotal Games WonYuliia Starodubtseva8.59.5+1.001.00UP
9Alexei PopyrinTotal Games WonZachary Svajda19.520.5+1.001.00UP
10Felix Auger-AliassimeTotal Games WonDaniel Altmaier20.519.5-1.001.00DOWN
11Aleksandar VukicTotal Games WonRaphael Collignon11.512.5+1.001.00UP
12Jannik SinnerTotal GamesClement Tabur25.024.5-0.500.50DOWN
ATP top 50
RkPlayerCountryPtsELO overallELO clayELO grassELO hard
1Jannik SinnerITA143502175185716952062
2Carlos AlcarazESP129602070186717171956
3Alexander ZverevGER58051961181615941863
4Novak DjokovicSRB47001955173816361846
5Felix Auger AliassimeCAN40501864160515171803
6Ben SheltonUSA40301848168315611765
7Taylor FritzUSA37701826158117221749
8Alex De MinaurAUS37551847165215901806
9Daniil MedvedevRUS34601878164115851845
10Lorenzo MusettiITA34151828175616071723
11Alexander BublikKAZ33551803172415691703
12Flavio CobolliITA27501796172015571655
13Jiri LeheckaCZE27151837164715741754
14Andrey RublevRUS25901762165815161683
15Karen KhachanovRUS22201691158615671639
16Valentin VacherotMON21471810170214671738
17Arthur FilsFRA21301912176215461771
18Tommy PaulUSA19751842174815871743
19Cameron NorrieGBR19181776165815291682
20Luciano DarderiITA18901714176714661466
21Learner TienUSA18701800146615061789
22Frances TiafoeUSA18651771160414881719
23Alejandro Davidovich FokinaESP18201756157215451703
24Arthur RinderknechFRA17361713156615301631
25Casper RuudNOR17351792174415021685
26Tomas Martin EtcheverryARG16601785169314561636
27Francisco CerundoloARG16201801172614261698
28Jakub MensikCZE16001795158914971747
29Joao FonsecaBRA14351818163814951795
30Corentin MoutetFRA14131706160015741640
31Tallon GriekspoorNED13601681157515641645
32Brandon NakashimaUSA12951706157015901660
33Ugo HumbertFRA12801712145115171697
34Rafael JodarESP127318741714—1765
35Alejandro TabiloCHI12481786169615751637
36Alexander BlockxBEL12001820168915081713
37Denis ShapovalovCAN11701690149814721698
38Jaume MunarESP11551695156315081635
39Zizou BergsBEL11401705157015211631
40Holger RuneDEN11101744166315151710
41Tomas MachacCZE11001737159215001682
42Alex MichelsenUSA10901715148815381702
43Sebastian KordaUSA10501806153715561757
44Mariano NavoneARG10461718171614601507
45Adrian MannarinoFRA10351589139015841569
46Gabriel DialloCAN10001651155415761615
47Marin CilicCRO9801710153916111635
48Ethan QuinnUSA9771731159415091683
49Fabian MarozsanHUN9751672156614501608
50Jack DraperGBR9601806163415941750
WTA top 50
RkPlayerCountryPtsELO overallELO clayELO grassELO hard
1Aryna SabalenkaBLR101102115180815882045
2Elena RybakinaKAZ85552063176015801972
3Iga SwiatekPOL69481924178016581852
4Coco GauffUSA67491957178715191871
5Jessica PegulaUSA61361997170115831901
6Amanda AnisimovaUSA59851916156116381822
7Mirra AndreevaRUS41811932180015131797
8Jasmine PaoliniITA37221815170715851741
9Victoria MbokoCAN35311936170415151891
10Elina SvitolinaUKR35301922172715501824
11Karolina MuchovaCZE33181951159714941869
12Belinda BencicSUI30901898158415611831
13Linda NoskovaCZE29991881158915831763
14Ekaterina AlexandrovaRUS26691747159315841662
15Marta KostyukUKR25071924175714491755
16Naomi OsakaJPN23411819162815141734
17Iva JovicUSA22351829166316011759
18Clara TausonDEN20301746156015201679
19Madison KeysUSA19461836170615581766
20Diana ShnaiderRUS19461782164715651686
21Liudmila SamsonovaRUS18951697160416191566
22Elise MertensBEL18581802158015811714
23Leylah FernandezCAN18511790159015461679
24Anna KalinskayaRUS17581784153815461721
25Hailey BaptisteUSA17471785166214881667
26Marie BouzkovaCZE16511773169914761648
27Sorana CirsteaROU15951866161214291797
28Jaqueline CristianROU14371770163514321698
29Ann LiUSA14351745163814781647
30Emma RaducanuGBR14301753157015771658
31Cristina BucsaESP14061738147515141684
32Qinwen ZhengCHN14051819173714971737
33Xin Yu WangCHN14011735154615911616
34Maya JointAUS13801711168815791641
35Emma NavarroUSA13771680157815901613
36Jelena OstapenkoLAT13691723163215341621
37Sara BejlekCZE13601832179714861653
38Anastasia PotapovaRUS13551787169014841640
39Katerina SiniakovaCZE13421777154915781693
40Janice TjenINA131718171662—1785
41Elisabetta CocciarettoITA12901800158415771689
42Alexandra EalaPHI12851786147816001748
43Lois BoissonFRA12681791181114831554
44Marketa VondrousovaCZE12631728160615781609
45Magdalena FrechPOL12631649153414341613
46Laura SiegemundGER12501680153515411592
47Maria SakkariGRE12381707156314861658
48Tereza ValentovaCZE12311845174615171788
49Peyton StearnsUSA12111710163614711621
50Mccartney KesslerUSA12041754151615831688
SourceDB / fileLast pulledAgeRowsStatus
Kalshi KXATPMATCHtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-05-22T16:14:56.865851+00:003m1866fresh
Kalshi KXWTAMATCHtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-05-22T16:14:56.865851+00:003m1750fresh
Kalshi KXFRENCHOPENtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-05-22T16:14:56.865851+00:003m0fresh
Kalshi KXFOPENMENSINGLEtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-05-22T16:14:56.865851+00:003m0fresh
Kalshi KXATPGRANDSLAMtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-05-22T16:14:56.865851+00:003m14fresh
Kalshi KXUSOPENtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-05-22T16:14:56.865851+00:003m0fresh
Kalshi KXATPSETWINNERtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-05-22T16:14:56.865851+00:003m3712fresh
Kalshi KXATPTOTALSETStennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-05-22T16:14:56.865851+00:003m0fresh
Kalshi KXATPSETSWEEPtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-05-22T16:14:56.865851+00:003m0fresh
Kalshi KXATPGAMESPREADtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-05-22T16:14:56.865851+00:003m0fresh
Kalshi KXATPEXACTMATCHtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-05-22T16:14:56.865851+00:003m1362fresh
Kalshi KXWTADOUBLEStennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-05-22T16:14:56.865851+00:003m0fresh
Kalshi KXATP1RANKtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-05-22T16:14:56.865851+00:003m16fresh
elo last computedtennis.sqlite2026-05-22T13:08:53+00:003.15h20051aging
rankings last pulledtennis.sqlite2026-05-22T13:08:57+00:003.15h3745aging
rankings atp latest datetennis.sqlite2026-05-04448.30h&mdash;stale
rankings wta latest datetennis.sqlite2026-05-04448.30h&mdash;stale
mirror atp scheduletennis.sqlite2026-05-22T16:16:34.139444+00:001m262fresh
h2h last computedtennis.sqlite2026-05-17T10:11:57.514615+00:00126.10h&mdash;stale
h2h n pairstennis.sqlite190184missing&mdash;missing
last player db runtennis.sqlite1779455451missing&mdash;missing
results last_runtennis_results.sqlite[2026-05-22T13:10:36.845356+00:00] 2026-05-22T13:10:34.893471+00:00; dates=['20260521']; rows=579; resolved=561missing&mdash;missing
pp_edges CSVpp_edges_tennis_2026-05-22.csv2026-05-22T16:17:42.806608+00:000m&mdash;fresh
kalshi edges JSONtennis_kalshi_edges_2026-05-22.json2026-05-22T16:17:33.203810+00:000m&mdash;fresh
paper trades PPpaper_trades_pp_tennis_2026-05-22.json2026-05-22T13:11:18.982059+00:003.11h&mdash;aging
paper trades Kalshipaper_trades_kalshi_tennis_2026-05-22.json2026-05-22T15:18:54.327199+00:0058m&mdash;fresh
daily payloaddaily_tennis_2026-05-22.json2026-05-22T16:17:05.971014+00:000m&mdash;fresh
PP movementpp_line_movement_tennis_2026-05-22.csv2026-05-22T16:17:00.264972+00:000m&mdash;fresh
PP calibrationpp_calibration_tennis.json2026-05-22T13:11:19.603614+00:003.11h&mdash;aging
Tennis EdgeBoard - generated 2026-05-22 16:17 UTC - meta-refresh every 120s - edgeboard-tennis.pages.dev