Tennis EdgeBoard - 2026-08-01

Kalshi KXATPMATCH 4m · 1862rKalshi KXWTAMATCH 4m · 1898rKalshi KXFRENCHOPEN 4mKalshi KXFOPENMENSINGLE 4mKalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM 4m · 14rKalshi KXUSOPEN 4mKalshi KXATPSETWINNER 4m · 4314rKalshi KXATPTOTALSETS 4mKalshi KXATPSETSWEEP 4m · 2rKalshi KXATPGAMESPREAD 4mKalshi KXATPEXACTMATCH 4m · 4220rKalshi KXWTADOUBLES 4m · 292rKalshi KXATP1RANK 4m · 16relo last computed 41d · 20430rrankings last pulled 47d · 11348rrankings atp latest date 54drankings wta latest date 54dmirror atp schedule 1m · 323rh2h last computed 76dh2h n pairs missinglast player db run missingresults last_run missingpp_edges CSV 1mkalshi edges JSON 1mpaper trades PP 0mpaper trades Kalshi 0mdaily payload 0mPP movement 0mPP calibration 0m

Matches today

scheduled

ELITE edges

across Kalshi + PP

STRONG edges

tier 2

MED edges

tier 3

Paper locks

Kalshi + PP

Real Money YTD

-$10.00

paper-gate restored

Qualifying skipped

filtered out today

Last refresh

17:44

2026-08-01 UTC

🏆 Best Bet (main-draw)

No main-draw Kalshi pick survived qualifying filter today.

🎯 Safest (P ≥ 65%)

Matteo Berrettini

Matteo Berrettini vs Mariano Navone · Round Of 128 hard · LOW

69%

Heavy main-draw favorite · PAPER

Edge +6.2pp
Ask 63¢

💎 Biggest Payout (ELITE)

No ELITE main-draw longshot today.

#	Match	Tournament	Round	Surface	Start	ELO A	ELO B	ELO diff	Kalshi event
1	Adam Walton vs Justin Boulais	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 16:30	1690	1586	+104	KXATPMATCH-26AUG01WALBOU
2	Adam Walton vs Justin Boulais	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 16:30	1690	1586	+104	KXATPMATCH-26AUG01WALBOU
3	Aleksandar Vukic vs Tomas Barrios Vera	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 17:00	1558	1564	-6	KXATPSETWINNER-26AUG01VUKBAR-2
4	Aleksandar Vukic vs Tomas Barrios Vera	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 17:00	1558	1564	-6	KXATPSETWINNER-26AUG01VUKBAR-2
5	Lanlana Tararudee vs ?	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 17:15	1814	—	—
6	Lanlana Tararudee vs ?	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 17:15	1814	—	—
7	Tatjana Maria vs Isabella Marton	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 17:20	1513	1410	+103	KXWTAMATCH-26AUG01MARMAR2
8	Tatjana Maria vs Isabella Marton	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 17:20	1513	1410	+103	KXWTAMATCH-26AUG01MARMAR2
9	Sho Shimabukuro vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 17:45	1643	1637	+6	KXATPMATCH-26AUG01SHIBUD
10	Hugo Gaston vs Duncan Chan	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 17:45	1666	1527	+139	KXATPSETWINNER-26AUG01GASCHA-2
11	Alina Korneeva vs Mary Stoiana	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 17:45	1811	1627	+185	KXWTAMATCH-26AUG01KORSTO
12	Moyuka Uchijima vs Himeno Sakatsume	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 17:45	1574	1742	-169	KXWTAMATCH-26AUG01UCHSAK
13	Sho Shimabukuro vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 17:45	1643	1637	+6	KXATPMATCH-26AUG01SHIBUD
14	Hugo Gaston vs Duncan Chan	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 17:45	1666	1527	+139	KXATPSETWINNER-26AUG01GASCHA-2
15	Alina Korneeva vs Mary Stoiana	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 17:45	1811	1627	+185	KXWTAMATCH-26AUG01KORSTO
16	Moyuka Uchijima vs Himeno Sakatsume	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 17:45	1574	1742	-169	KXWTAMATCH-26AUG01UCHSAK
17	Benjamin Bonzi vs Hugo Dellien	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 17:50	1678	1459	+219	KXATPMATCH-26AUG01BONDEL
18	Benjamin Bonzi vs Hugo Dellien	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 17:50	1678	1459	+219	KXATPMATCH-26AUG01BONDEL
19	Jaime Faria vs Christopher Oconnell	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 17:55	1585	1614	-29	KXATPMATCH-26AUG01FAROCO
20	Jaime Faria vs Christopher Oconnell	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 17:55	1585	1614	-29	KXATPMATCH-26AUG01FAROCO
21	Jessica Pegula vs Diana Shnaider	Mubadala DC Open	Semifinal	hard	Aug 01 18:00	1901	1686	+216	KXWTAMATCH-26AUG01PEGSHN
22	Sofia Kenin vs Lucrezia Stefanini	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 18:00	1543	1614	-70	KXWTAMATCH-26AUG01KENSTE
23	Polina Kudermetova vs Avery Alexander	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 18:00	1628	1433	+195	KXWTAMATCH-26AUG01KUDALE
24	Jessica Pegula vs Diana Shnaider	Mubadala DC Open	Semifinal	hard	Aug 01 18:00	1901	1686	+216	KXWTAMATCH-26AUG01PEGSHN
25	Kristina Liutova vs Elvina Kalieva	The Memphis Classic	Semifinal	hard	Aug 01 18:00	1719	1638	+81	KXWTAMATCH-26AUG01LIUKAL
26	Sofia Kenin vs Lucrezia Stefanini	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 18:00	1543	1614	-70	KXWTAMATCH-26AUG01KENSTE
27	Polina Kudermetova vs Avery Alexander	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 18:00	1628	1433	+195	KXWTAMATCH-26AUG01KUDALE
28	Shintaro Mochizuki vs Dane Sweeny	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 18:30	1477	1548	-72	KXATPSETWINNER-26AUG01MOCSWE-1
29	Shintaro Mochizuki vs Dane Sweeny	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 18:30	1477	1548	-72	KXATPSETWINNER-26AUG01MOCSWE-1
30	Harriet Dart vs Sloane Stephens	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 19:00	1740	1457	+283	KXWTAMATCH-26AUG01DARSTE
31	Anna Blinkova vs Heather Watson	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 19:00	1577	1608	-31	KXWTAMATCH-26AUG01BLIWAT
32	? vs Kayla Day	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 19:00	—	1730	—
33	Harriet Dart vs Sloane Stephens	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 19:00	1740	1457	+283	KXWTAMATCH-26AUG01DARSTE
34	Anna Blinkova vs Heather Watson	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 19:00	1577	1608	-31	KXWTAMATCH-26AUG01BLIWAT
35	? vs Kayla Day	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 19:00	—	1730	—
36	Naomi Osaka vs Alexandra Eala	Mubadala DC Open	Semifinal	hard	Aug 01 19:30	1734	1748	-14	KXWTAMATCH-26AUG01OSAEAL
37	Dalibor Svrcina vs Titouan Droguet	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 19:30	1650	1628	+22	KXATPMATCH-26AUG01SVRDRO
38	Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Keegan Rice	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 19:30	1671	1464	+208	KXATPMATCH-26AUG01TSIRIC
39	Naomi Osaka vs Alexandra Eala	Mubadala DC Open	Semifinal	hard	Aug 01 19:30	1734	1748	-14	KXWTAMATCH-26AUG01OSAEAL
40	Dalibor Svrcina vs Titouan Droguet	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 19:30	1650	1628	+22	KXATPMATCH-26AUG01SVRDRO
41	Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Keegan Rice	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 19:30	1671	1464	+208	KXATPMATCH-26AUG01TSIRIC
42	Darja Vidmanova vs Renata Zarazua	The Memphis Classic	Semifinal	hard	Aug 01 20:00	1725	1644	+81	KXWTAMATCH-26AUG01VIDZAR
43	Maddison Inglis vs Taylah Preston	Odlum Brown VanOpen	Final	hard	Aug 01 20:30	1662	1796	-134
44	Varvara Lepchenko vs Emerson Jones	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 20:30	1645	1769	-125	KXWTAMATCH-26AUG01LEPJON
45	Varvara Lepchenko vs Emerson Jones	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 20:30	1645	1769	-125	KXWTAMATCH-26AUG01LEPJON
46	Maya Joint vs Ana Grubor	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 21:00	1641	1532	+109	KXWTAMATCH-26AUG01JOIGRU
47	Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Rebecca Sramkova	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 21:00	1755	1611	+143	KXWTAMATCH-26AUG01SAWSRA
48	Maya Joint vs Ana Grubor	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 21:00	1641	1532	+109	KXWTAMATCH-26AUG01JOIGRU
49	Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Rebecca Sramkova	National Bank Open presented by Rogers	Qualifying Final	hard	Aug 01 21:00	1755	1611	+143	KXWTAMATCH-26AUG01SAWSRA
50	Brandon Nakashima vs Taylor Fritz	Mubadala DC Open	Semifinal	hard	Aug 01 22:30	1660	1749	-88	KXATPSETWINNER-26AUG01NAKFRI-1
51	Brandon Nakashima vs Taylor Fritz	Mubadala DC Open	Semifinal	hard	Aug 01 22:30	1660	1749	-88	KXATPSETWINNER-26AUG01NAKFRI-1

#	Match	Our pick	Our P	Mkt P	Ask	Edge	Tier	Decision	Vol 24h	Surface	Round	EV/$
1	Isabella Marton vs Tatjana Maria Qual	Isabella Marton	49.4%	5.0%	5¢	+44.4pp	LOW	SKIP	169881	hard	Qualifying Final	+0.444
2	Justin Boulais vs Adam Walton Qual	Justin Boulais	45.0%	4.0%	4¢	+41.0pp	LOW	SKIP	430778	hard	Qualifying Final	+0.410
3	Avery Alexander vs Polina Kudermetova Qual	Avery Alexander	45.0%	4.0%	4¢	+41.0pp	LOW	SKIP	18297	hard	Qualifying Final	+0.410
4	Maya Joint vs Ana Grubor Qual	Ana Grubor	45.0%	6.0%	6¢	+39.0pp	LOW	SKIP	14444	hard	Qualifying Final	+0.390
5	Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Keegan Rice Qual	Keegan Rice	45.0%	15.0%	15¢	+30.0pp	LOW	PAPER	675	hard	Qualifying Final	+0.300
6	Gael Monfils vs Kamil Majchrzak	Gael Monfils	53.2%	27.0%	27¢	+26.2pp	LOW	PAPER	1936	hard	Round 1	+0.262
7	Hugo Dellien vs Benjamin Bonzi Qual	Hugo Dellien	45.0%	20.0%	20¢	+25.0pp	LOW	PAPER	3760	hard	Qualifying Final	+0.250
8	Aleksandar Vukic vs Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera Qual	Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera	49.4%	29.0%	29¢	+20.4pp	LOW	PAPER	339094	hard	Qualification Round 1	+0.204
9	Cameron Norrie vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli	Camilo Ugo Carabelli	42.4%	23.0%	23¢	+19.4pp	LOW	PAPER	1480	hard	Round Of 128	+0.194
10	Hugo Gaston vs Duncan Chan Qual	Duncan Chan	45.0%	26.0%	26¢	+19.0pp	LOW	PAPER	3430	hard	Qualification Round 1	+0.190
11	Kamilla Rakhimova vs Venus Williams	Venus Williams	42.8%	24.0%	24¢	+18.8pp	LOW	PAPER	415	hard	Round 1	+0.188
12	Tereza Valentova vs Taylor Townsend	Taylor Townsend	53.8%	37.0%	37¢	+16.9pp	LOW	PAPER	5	hard	Round 1	+0.168
13	Ariana Arseneault vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro	Ariana Arseneault	29.9%	15.0%	15¢	+14.9pp	LOW	PAPER	2515	hard	Round 1	+0.149
14	Cadence Brace vs McCartney Kessler	Cadence Brace	29.8%	15.0%	15¢	+14.8pp	LOW	PAPER	2677	hard	Round 1	+0.148
15	Carol Zhao vs Magda Linette	Carol Zhao	25.7%	12.0%	12¢	+13.7pp	LOW	PAPER	71	hard	Round 1	+0.137
16	Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Nuno Borges	Aleksandar Kovacevic	46.6%	33.0%	33¢	+13.6pp	LOW	PAPER	2137	hard	Round Of 128	+0.136
17	Varvara Lepchenko vs Emerson Jones Qual	Varvara Lepchenko	45.0%	33.0%	33¢	+12.0pp	LOW	PAPER	8	hard	Qualifying Final	+0.120
18	Jaime Faria vs Christopher O'Connell Qual	Christopher O'Connell	49.0%	38.0%	38¢	+11.0pp	LOW	PAPER	15655	hard	Qualifying Final	+0.110
19	Hanyu Guo vs Kayla Day Qual	Hanyu Guo	49.7%	39.0%	39¢	+10.7pp	LOW	PAPER	248	hard	Qualification Round 1	+0.107
20	Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang	Shuai Zhang	45.6%	35.0%	35¢	+10.6pp	LOW	PAPER	29	hard	Round Of 128	+0.106
21	Alejandro Tabilo vs Rafael Jodar	Alejandro Tabilo	40.5%	30.0%	30¢	+10.5pp	LOW	PAPER	26522	hard	Semifinal	+0.105
22	Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Karolina Pliskova	Oleksandra Oliynykova	35.3%	25.0%	25¢	+10.3pp	LOW	PAPER	766	hard	Round 1	+0.103
23	Denis Shapovalov vs Zachary Svajda	Zachary Svajda	51.9%	42.0%	42¢	+9.9pp	LOW	PAPER	802	hard	Round Of 128	+0.099
24	Rebecca Marino vs Zeynep Sonmez	Rebecca Marino	38.7%	29.0%	29¢	+9.7pp	LOW	PAPER	0	hard	Round 1	+0.097
25	Renata Zarazua vs Tamara Korpatsch	Tamara Korpatsch	53.7%	44.0%	44¢	+9.7pp	LOW	PAPER	39388	hard	Round 1	+0.097
26	Marton Fucsovics vs Corentin Moutet	Marton Fucsovics	56.3%	47.0%	47¢	+9.3pp	LOW	PAPER	2455	hard	Round Of 128	+0.093
27	Sara Bejlek vs Xiyu Wang	Xiyu Wang	50.2%	41.0%	41¢	+9.2pp	LOW	PAPER	31	hard	Round Of 128	+0.092
28	Alina Korneeva vs Mary Stoiana Qual	Mary Stoiana	45.0%	36.0%	36¢	+9.0pp	LOW	PAPER	4723	hard	Qualifying Final	+0.090
29	Jessica Pegula vs Diana Shnaider	Diana Shnaider	32.7%	24.0%	24¢	+8.7pp	LOW	PAPER	102450	hard	Semifinal	+0.087
30	Jack Draper vs Terence Atmane	Terence Atmane	41.5%	33.0%	33¢	+8.5pp	LOW	PAPER	909	hard	Round Of 128	+0.085
31	Vit Kopriva vs Alexis Galarneau	Vit Kopriva	56.4%	48.0%	48¢	+8.4pp	LOW	PAPER	392	hard	Round 1	+0.084
32	Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs Talia Gibson	Talia Gibson	51.2%	43.0%	43¢	+8.2pp	LOW	PAPER	40	hard	Round 1	+0.082
33	Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alex Michelsen	Jan-Lennard Struff	36.1%	28.0%	28¢	+8.1pp	LOW	PAPER	2293	hard	Round 1	+0.081
34	Sebastian Ofner vs Jacob Fearnley Qual	Sebastian Ofner	52.0%	44.0%	44¢	+8.0pp	LOW	PAPER	188755	hard	Qualification Round 1	+0.080
35	Eva Lys vs Panna Udvardy	Panna Udvardy	45.0%	37.0%	37¢	+8.0pp	LOW	PAPER	2	hard	Round 1	+0.080
36	Liam Draxl vs Daniel Merida	Daniel Merida	63.8%	56.0%	56¢	+7.8pp	LOW	PAPER	188	hard	Round 1	+0.078
37	Janice Tjen vs Liudmila Samsonova	Janice Tjen	45.5%	38.0%	38¢	+7.5pp	LOW	PAPER	1132	hard	Round 1	+0.075
38	Lorenzo Sonego vs Tallon Griekspoor	Tallon Griekspoor	59.3%	52.0%	52¢	+7.3pp	LOW	PAPER	240	hard	Round 1	+0.073
39	Jaume Munar vs Rinky Hijikata	Rinky Hijikata	52.1%	45.0%	45¢	+7.1pp	LOW	PAPER	52	hard	Round 1	+0.071
40	Brandon Nakashima vs Taylor Fritz	Brandon Nakashima	45.5%	39.0%	39¢	+6.5pp	LOW	PAPER	64274	hard	Semifinal	+0.065
41	Matteo Berrettini vs Mariano Navone	Matteo Berrettini	69.2%	63.0%	63¢	+6.2pp	LOW	PAPER	186	hard	Round Of 128	+0.062
42	Kayla Cross vs Katie Boulter	Kayla Cross	29.0%	24.0%	24¢	+5.0pp	LOW	PAPER	1713	hard	Round 1	+0.050
43	Anna Blinkova vs Heather Watson Qual	Heather Watson	45.0%	40.0%	40¢	+5.0pp	LOW	PAPER	1	hard	Qualifying Final	+0.050
44	Denis Shapovalov vs Arthur Gea	Arthur Gea	46.5%	42.0%	42¢	+4.5pp	LOW	PAPER	32618	hard	Final	+0.045
45	Renata Zarazua vs Darja Vidmanova	Renata Zarazua	46.8%	43.0%	43¢	+3.8pp	LOW	PAPER	6663	hard	Semifinal	+0.038
46	Titouan Droguet vs Dalibor Svrcina Qual	Titouan Droguet	53.7%	50.0%	50¢	+3.7pp	LOW	PAPER	3549	hard	Qualifying Final	+0.037
47	Moyuka Uchijima vs Himeno Sakatsume Qual	Himeno Sakatsume	46.7%	43.0%	43¢	+3.7pp	LOW	PAPER	1596	hard	Qualifying Final	+0.037
48	Hamad Medjedovic vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	45.4%	42.0%	42¢	+3.4pp	LOW	PAPER	813	hard	Round Of 128	+0.034
49	Nikola Bartunkova vs Bianca Andreescu	Bianca Andreescu	46.1%	43.0%	43¢	+3.1pp	LOW	PAPER	84	hard	Round 1	+0.031
50	Anna Bondar vs Anhelina Kalinina	Anna Bondar	41.1%	38.0%	38¢	+3.1pp	LOW	PAPER	0	hard	Round 1	+0.031
51	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Sho Shimabukuro Qual	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	48.4%	46.0%	46¢	+2.4pp	LOW	PAPER	17647	hard	Qualifying Final	+0.023
52	Alexandra Eala vs Naomi Osaka	Naomi Osaka	61.8%	60.0%	60¢	+1.8pp	PASS	SKIP	261575	hard	Semifinal	+0.018
53	Dane Sweeny vs Shintaro Mochizuki Qual	Dane Sweeny	41.7%	40.0%	40¢	+1.7pp	LOW	SKIP	3392	hard	Qualification Round 1	+0.017
54	Pablo Carreno Busta vs Valentin Royer	Valentin Royer	35.5%	34.0%	34¢	+1.6pp	LOW	SKIP	798	hard	Round Of 128	+0.015
55	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Botic Van de Zandschulp	Botic Van de Zandschulp	51.4%	50.0%	50¢	+1.4pp	LOW	SKIP	122	hard	Round 1	+0.014
56	Kimberly Birrell vs Viktorija Golubic	Kimberly Birrell	51.1%	50.0%	50¢	+1.1pp	LOW	SKIP	10	hard	Round 1	+0.011
57	Kristina Liutova vs Elvina Kalieva	Elvina Kalieva	44.1%	43.0%	43¢	+1.1pp	LOW	SKIP	30062	hard	Semifinal	+0.011
58	Lanlana Tararudee vs Qinwen Zheng Qual	Qinwen Zheng	55.0%	56.0%	56¢	-1.0pp	LOW	SKIP	110351	hard	Qualification Round 1	-0.010
59	Sebastian Baez vs Mattia Bellucci	Sebastian Baez	52.6%	52.0%	52¢	+0.6pp	LOW	SKIP	1546	hard	Round 1	+0.006
60	Xinyu Wang vs Daria Kasatkina	Daria Kasatkina	51.4%	52.0%	52¢	-0.6pp	LOW	SKIP	5	hard	Round Of 128	-0.006
61	Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Rebecca Sramkova Qual	Mananchaya Sawangkaew	58.6%	58.0%	58¢	+0.6pp	LOW	SKIP	8033	hard	Qualifying Final	+0.006
62	Harriet Dart vs Sloane Stephens Qual	Sloane Stephens	49.4%	50.0%	50¢	-0.6pp	LOW	SKIP	568	hard	Qualifying Final	-0.006
63	Juncheng Shang vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	Juncheng Shang	58.5%	59.0%	59¢	-0.5pp	LOW	SKIP	70	hard	Round Of 128	-0.005
64	Elena-Gabriela Ruse vs Peyton Stearns	Peyton Stearns	55.2%	55.0%	55¢	+0.2pp	LOW	SKIP	5	hard	Round 1	+0.002
65	Sofia Kenin vs Lucrezia Stefanini Qual	Lucrezia Stefanini	45.0%	45.0%	45¢	+0.0pp	LOW	SKIP	47703	hard	Qualifying Final	+0.000

#	Player	Stat	PP line	Our proj	Edge %	Side	Tier	Opp	Surface	Demon	Payout
1	Sofia Kenin	Double Faults	4.5	0.00	+100.0%	LESS	LOW	Lucrezia Stefanini	clay	—	1.0x
2	Mananchaya Sawangkaew🟨 WARM	Double Faults	5.5	0.00	+100.0%	LESS	LOW	Rebecca Sramkova	clay	—	1.0x
3	Rebecca Sramkova	Double Faults	3.5	0.00	+100.0%	LESS	LOW	Mananchaya Sawangkaew	clay	—	1.0x
4	Alejandro Tabilo🟨 WARM	Double Faults	2.5	0.00	+100.0%	LESS	LOW	Rafael Jodar	clay	—	0.5x
5	Rafael Jodar🟨 WARM	Double Faults	2.0	0.00	+100.0%	LESS	LOW	Alejandro Tabilo	clay	—	0.5x
6	Denis Shapovalov	Double Faults	5.5	0.00	+100.0%	LESS	LOW	Arthur Gea	clay	—	0.5x
7	Arthur Gea	Double Faults	4.5	0.00	+100.0%	LESS	LOW	Denis Shapovalov	clay	—	0.5x
8	Eva Lys🧊 COLD	Double Faults	3.5	0.00	+100.0%	LESS	LOW	Panna Udvardy	clay	—	1.0x
9	Daria Kasatkina🟨 WARM	Double Faults	8.5	0.00	+100.0%	LESS	ELITE	Xinyu Wang	clay	—	1.0x
10	Kamilla Rakhimova🧊 COLD	Double Faults	4.5	0.00	+100.0%	LESS	LOW	Venus Williams	clay	—	1.0x
11	Karolina Pliskova🟨 WARM	Double Faults	5.5	0.00	+100.0%	LESS	LOW	Oleksandra Oliynykova	clay	—	1.0x
12	Oleksandra Oliynykova	Double Faults	2.5	0.00	+100.0%	LESS	LOW	Karolina Pliskova	clay	—	1.0x
13	Tamara Korpatsch🟨 WARM	Double Faults	3.5	0.00	+100.0%	LESS	LOW	Renata Zarazua	clay	—	1.0x
14	Diana Shnaider	Break Points Won	2.5	4.94	+97.6%	MORE	LOW	Jessica Pegula	clay	—	1.0x
15	Kristina Liutova🟨 WARM	Double Faults	2.5	4.24	+69.4%	MORE	LOW	Elvina Kalieva	clay	—	0.5x
16	Naomi Osaka🟨 WARM	Aces	8.5	2.79	+67.2%	LESS	ELITE	Alexandra Eala	clay	—	1.0x
17	Taylor Fritz⏳ RTRN	Aces	13.5	6.41	+52.5%	LESS	LOW	Brandon Nakashima	clay	—	0.5x
18	Jessica Pegula🟨 WARM	Aces	5.5	2.93	+46.7%	LESS	LOW	Diana Shnaider	clay	—	0.5x
19	Arthur Gea	Break Points Won	2.5	3.55	+42.0%	MORE	LOW	Denis Shapovalov	clay	—	1.0x
20	Maya Joint⏳ RTRN	Total Games	16.5	23.24	+40.9%	MORE	LOW	Ana Grubor	clay	—	1.0x
21	Darja Vidmanova🧊 COLD	Aces	4.5	2.69	+40.1%	LESS	LOW	Renata Zarazua	clay	—	0.5x
22	Polina Kudermetova🟨 WARM	Total Games	16.5	22.06	+33.7%	MORE	LOW	Avery Alexander	clay	—	0.5x
23	Brandon Nakashima	Aces	9.0	6.40	+28.9%	LESS	LOW	Taylor Fritz	clay	—	0.5x
24	Hugo Dellien⏳ RTRN	Total Games Won	8.5	10.24	+20.5%	MORE	LOW	Benjamin Bonzi	clay	—	1.0x
25	Brandon Nakashima	Total Games Won	12.5	10.05	+19.6%	LESS	LOW	Taylor Fritz	clay	—	0.5x
26	Jessica Pegula🟨 WARM	Total Games	20.5	24.44	+19.2%	MORE	LOW	Diana Shnaider	clay	—	0.5x
27	Venus Williams🧊 COLD	Double Faults	4.5	3.66	+18.7%	LESS	LOW	Kamilla Rakhimova	clay	—	1.0x
28	Benjamin Bonzi	Total Games	20.5	24.24	+18.3%	MORE	LOW	Hugo Dellien	clay	—	0.5x
29	Juncheng Shang⏳ RTRN	Total Games Won	12.5	10.24	+18.1%	LESS	LOW	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	clay	—	0.5x
30	Alejandro Tabilo🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	11.5	9.46	+17.8%	LESS	LOW	Rafael Jodar	clay	—	0.5x
31	Corentin Moutet	Total Games Won	12.5	10.34	+17.3%	LESS	LOW	Marton Fucsovics	clay	—	0.5x
32	Alejandro Tabilo🟨 WARM	Aces	5.5	6.42	+16.8%	MORE	LOW	Rafael Jodar	clay	—	1.0x
33	Jaume Munar🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	12.5	10.45	+16.4%	LESS	LOW	Rinky Hijikata	clay	—	0.5x
34	Alex Michelsen🧊 COLD	Total Games	22.0	25.27	+14.9%	MORE	LOW	Jan-Lennard Struff	clay	—	0.5x
35	Benjamin Bonzi	Total Games Won	12.5	10.76	+14.0%	LESS	LOW	Hugo Dellien	clay	—	1.0x
36	Taylah Preston🟨 WARM	Total Games	21.5	24.42	+13.6%	MORE	LOW	Maddison Inglis	clay	—	1.0x
37	Mananchaya Sawangkaew🟨 WARM	Total Games	21.5	24.36	+13.3%	MORE	LOW	Rebecca Sramkova	clay	—	1.0x
38	Kristina Liutova🟨 WARM	Total Games	21.5	24.27	+12.9%	MORE	LOW	Elvina Kalieva	clay	—	0.5x
39	Kamil Majchrzak⏳ RTRN	Total Games	21.5	24.26	+12.8%	MORE	LOW	Gael Monfils	clay	—	0.5x
40	Shintaro Mochizuki⏳ RTRN	Total Games	22.5	25.34	+12.6%	MORE	LOW	Dane Sweeny	clay	—	0.5x
41	Shintaro Mochizuki⏳ RTRN	Total Games Won	12.5	10.95	+12.4%	LESS	LOW	Dane Sweeny	clay	—	1.0x
42	Rafael Jodar🟨 WARM	Total Games	22.5	25.25	+12.2%	MORE	LOW	Alejandro Tabilo	clay	—	0.5x
43	Marton Fucsovics	Total Games	22.5	25.18	+11.9%	MORE	LOW	Corentin Moutet	clay	—	0.5x
44	Hamad Medjedovic⏳ RTRN	Total Games	22.5	25.17	+11.9%	MORE	LOW	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	clay	—	0.5x
45	Pablo Carreno Busta🟨 WARM	Total Games	22.5	25.14	+11.7%	MORE	LOW	Valentin Royer	clay	—	0.5x
46	Matteo Berrettini	Total Games	22.5	25.14	+11.7%	MORE	LOW	Mariano Navone	clay	—	0.5x
47	Sebastian Baez	Total Games Won	12.5	11.14	+10.9%	LESS	LOW	Mattia Bellucci	clay	—	0.5x
48	Jaume Munar🧊 COLD	Total Games	22.5	24.94	+10.8%	MORE	LOW	Rinky Hijikata	clay	—	0.5x
49	Darja Vidmanova🧊 COLD	Break Points Won	4.5	4.98	+10.8%	MORE	LOW	Renata Zarazua	clay	—	1.0x
50	Mattia Bellucci	Total Games	22.5	24.91	+10.7%	MORE	LOW	Sebastian Baez	clay	—	0.5x
51	Darja Vidmanova🧊 COLD	Total Games	21.5	23.61	+9.8%	MORE	LOW	Renata Zarazua	clay	—	0.5x
52	Kristina Liutova🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	4.5	4.93	+9.5%	MORE	LOW	Elvina Kalieva	clay	—	1.0x
53	Nuno Borges🧊 COLD	Total Games	23.0	25.16	+9.4%	MORE	LOW	Aleksandar Kovacevic	clay	—	0.5x
54	Naomi Osaka🟨 WARM	Total Games	21.5	23.23	+8.1%	MORE	MED	Alexandra Eala	clay	—	0.5x
55	Jan-Lennard Struff🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	10.5	9.73	+7.3%	LESS	LOW	Alex Michelsen	clay	—	0.5x
56	Gael Monfils🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	10.5	9.80	+6.7%	LESS	LOW	Kamil Majchrzak	clay	—	0.5x
57	Juncheng Shang⏳ RTRN	Total Games	22.5	23.95	+6.4%	MORE	LOW	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	clay	—	0.5x
58	Taylah Preston🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	4.5	4.76	+5.7%	MORE	LOW	Maddison Inglis	clay	—	1.0x
59	Taylor Fritz⏳ RTRN	Total Games	24.5	25.15	+2.7%	MORE	LOW	Brandon Nakashima	clay	—	0.5x
60	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard⏳ RTRN	Total Games	25.5	25.24	+1.0%	LESS	LOW	Botic Van de Zandschulp	clay	—	0.5x
61	Naomi Osaka🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	12.5	12.44	+0.5%	LESS	PASS	Alexandra Eala	clay	—	0.5x
62	Diana Shnaider	Total Games Won	8.5	8.49	+0.1%	LESS	LOW	Jessica Pegula	clay	—	0.5x

Kalshi tennis — 0 picks · $0.00 staked

Day 1 - paper only, grade EOD before scaling · locked 2026-08-01T13:19:14.775804+00:00

#	Match	Pick	Our P	Ask	Edge	Tier	Surface	Stake	Status	P&L

PrizePicks tennis — 0 picks · $0.00 staked

Day 1 - paper only, grade EOD before scaling · locked 2026-08-01T13:19:14.711729+00:00

#	Player	Stat	Line	Our proj	Side	Edge	Tier	Surface	Stake	Status	P&L

Polymarket = retail/crypto sentiment. We can't bet there from CA, but the divergence vs Kalshi (sharp) reveals where the public is loading up. Generated 2026-08-01T10:44:08 · flagged threshold = ±3.0pp · 0 flagged futures / 0 flagged matches.

Grand-slam futures · ANY 2026 Slam (Kalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM vs Polymarket per-slam aggregate)

Polymarket "any-slam" probability computed naively as 1 - product(1 - p_slam). Positive divergence = public (Polymarket) more bullish than sharp (Kalshi). Sorted by |divergence|.

Player	Sharp (Kalshi)	Public (Poly)	Δ	Poly per-slam
Jack Draper · exact	2.5%	0.5%	-2.0pp · SHARP HIGHER	US 1%
Lorenzo Musetti · exact	2.0%	0.4%	-1.6pp · SHARP HIGHER	US 0%
Novak Djokovic · exact	5.0%	3.8%	-1.2pp · SHARP HIGHER	US 4%
Daniil Medvedev · exact	2.5%	1.4%	-1.1pp · SHARP HIGHER	US 1%
Ben Shelton · exact	2.5%	1.5%	-1.0pp · SHARP HIGHER	US 2%
Taylor Fritz · exact	2.5%	2.6%	+0.1pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	US 3%
Frances Tiafoe · exact	0.5%	0.4%	-0.1pp · SHARP HIGHER	US 0%
Alexander Bublik · exact	0.5%	0.4%	-0.1pp · SHARP HIGHER	US 0%
Karen Khachanov · no-match	0.5%	—	no Poly match	—
Felix Auger-Aliassime · no-match	1.5%	—	no Poly match	—
Casper Ruud · no-match	1.0%	—	no Poly match	—
Alex de Minaur · no-match	1.5%	—	no Poly match	—

Per-match overlaps

No active per-match overlaps right now (Polymarket tennis volume concentrates in Grand Slam futures).

Per-stat-type MAE (n_graded=18)

Bar width = MAE (lower = better). "INSUFFICIENT" = need more graded picks.

Total Games

n=4

Ours

Us 6.45
PP 3.25
INSUFFICIENT_N

Total Games Won

n=13

Ours

Us 5.11
PP 4.96
NULL

Total Tie Breaks

n=1

Ours

Us 0.25
PP 0.50
INSUFFICIENT_N

Per-tier MAE

Bar width = MAE (lower = better). "INSUFFICIENT" = need more graded picks.

ELITE

n=16

Ours

Us 4.94
PP 3.75
NULL

MED

n=0

Ours

Us —
PP —
INSUFFICIENT_N

STRONG

n=2

Ours

Us 6.75
PP 9.00
INSUFFICIENT_N

[!]

No AAR available yet.
Expected: ~/.claude/projects/.../memory/aar_tennis_<date>.md

#	Player	Stat	Opp	Open	Latest	Diff	Abs	Direction
1	Matteo Berrettini	Total Games	Mariano Navone	24.5	22.5	-2.00	2.00	DOWN
2	Taylor Fritz	Aces	Brandon Nakashima	14.5	13.5	-1.00	1.00	DOWN
3	Marton Fucsovics	Total Games	Corentin Moutet	23.5	22.5	-1.00	1.00	DOWN
4	Mattia Bellucci	Total Games	Sebastian Baez	23.5	22.5	-1.00	1.00	DOWN
5	Gael Monfils	Total Games Won	Kamil Majchrzak	9.5	10.5	+1.00	1.00	UP
6	Adam Walton	Fantasy Score	Justin Boulais	23.0	22.5	-0.50	0.50	DOWN
7	Aleksandar Vukic	Fantasy Score	Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera	15.5	16.0	+0.50	0.50	UP
8	Aleksandar Vukic	Fantasy Score	Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera	20.0	20.5	+0.50	0.50	UP
9	Aleksandar Vukic	Fantasy Score	Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera	3.5	4.0	+0.50	0.50	UP
10	Qinwen Zheng	Fantasy Score	Lanlana Tararudee	18.0	18.5	+0.50	0.50	UP
11	Qinwen Zheng	Fantasy Score	Lanlana Tararudee	21.5	22.0	+0.50	0.50	UP
12	Qinwen Zheng	Fantasy Score	Lanlana Tararudee	6.5	7.0	+0.50	0.50	UP
13	Polina Kudermetova	Fantasy Score	Avery Alexander	22.5	22.0	-0.50	0.50	DOWN
14	Jessica Pegula	Fantasy Score	Diana Shnaider	20.5	21.0	+0.50	0.50	UP
15	Jessica Pegula	Fantasy Score	Diana Shnaider	23.0	23.5	+0.50	0.50	UP
16	Jessica Pegula	Fantasy Score	Diana Shnaider	17.0	17.5	+0.50	0.50	UP
17	Maya Joint	Fantasy Score	Ana Grubor	23.5	23.0	-0.50	0.50	DOWN
18	Maya Joint	Fantasy Score	Ana Grubor	25.5	25.0	-0.50	0.50	DOWN
19	Maya Joint	Fantasy Score	Ana Grubor	21.5	21.0	-0.50	0.50	DOWN
20	Nuno Borges	Total Games	Aleksandar Kovacevic	22.5	23.0	+0.50	0.50	UP
21	Alex Michelsen	Total Games	Jan-Lennard Struff	21.5	22.0	+0.50	0.50	UP

ATP top 50

Rk	Player	Country	Pts	ELO overall	ELO clay	ELO grass	ELO hard
1	Jannik Sinner	ITA	13500	2167	1879	1695	2062
2	Carlos Alcaraz	ESP	9960	2070	1867	1717	1956
3	Alexander Zverev	GER	7305	1994	1865	1594	1863
4	Felix Auger Aliassime	CAN	4440	1854	1642	1517	1803
5	Ben Shelton	USA	3920	1816	1665	1561	1765
6	Alex De Minaur	AUS	3905	1851	1677	1590	1806
7	Novak Djokovic	SRB	3760	1929	1729	1636	1846
8	Daniil Medvedev	RUS	3760	1884	1659	1585	1845
9	Taylor Fritz	USA	3720	1793	1551	1722	1749
10	Flavio Cobolli	ITA	3540	1833	1754	1557	1655
11	Alexander Bublik	KAZ	2930	1785	1681	1569	1703
12	Jiri Lehecka	CZE	2575	1814	1632	1574	1754
13	Andrey Rublev	RUS	2460	1804	1705	1516	1683
14	Casper Ruud	NOR	2425	1866	1805	1502	1685
15	Karen Khachanov	RUS	2320	1723	1622	1567	1639
16	Lorenzo Musetti	ITA	2315	1832	1764	1607	1723
17	Jakub Mensik	CZE	2300	1825	1661	1497	1747
18	Luciano Darderi	ITA	2300	1772	1790	1466	1466
19	Learner Tien	USA	2270	1847	1622	1506	1789
20	Valentin Vacherot	MON	2145	1800	1695	1467	1738
21	Arthur Fils	FRA	1940	1892	1746	1546	1771
22	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	ESP	1860	1749	1593	1545	1703
23	Rafael Jodar	ESP	1849	1893	1755	—	1765
24	Arthur Rinderknech	FRA	1776	1713	1576	1530	1631
25	Joao Fonseca	BRA	1735	1837	1673	1495	1795
26	Frances Tiafoe	USA	1705	1775	1640	1488	1719
27	Francisco Cerundolo	ARG	1660	1790	1700	1426	1698
28	Tommy Paul	USA	1645	1851	1758	1587	1743
29	Cameron Norrie	GBR	1595	1738	1631	1529	1682
30	Tomas Martin Etcheverry	ARG	1510	1751	1656	1456	1636
31	Alejandro Tabilo	CHI	1428	1798	1705	1575	1637
32	Brandon Nakashima	USA	1385	1713	1582	1590	1660
33	Ugo Humbert	FRA	1370	1715	1498	1517	1697
34	Matteo Arnaldi	ITA	1336	1719	1676	1455	1558
35	Ignacio Buse	PER	1316	1773	1732	1482	1562
36	Corentin Moutet	FRA	1283	1673	1567	1574	1640
37	Alexander Blockx	BEL	1280	1820	1688	1508	1713
38	Alex Michelsen	USA	1205	1727	1522	1538	1702
39	Mariano Navone	ARG	1165	1767	1722	1460	1507
40	Zizou Bergs	BEL	1150	1681	1547	1521	1631
41	Tallon Griekspoor	NED	1150	1680	1576	1564	1645
42	Denis Shapovalov	CAN	1130	1668	1483	1472	1698
43	Tomas Machac	CZE	1120	1745	1602	1500	1682
44	Jaume Munar	ESP	1105	1695	1589	1508	1635
45	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	ARG	1055	1756	1753	1469	1532
46	Adrian Mannarino	FRA	1031	1565	1369	1584	1569
47	Marin Cilic	CRO	994	1684	1513	1611	1635
48	Matteo Berrettini	ITA	985	1749	1689	1524	1694
49	Miomir Kecmanovic	SRB	980	1688	1584	1500	1595
50	Nuno Borges	POR	970	1656	1596	1493	1596

WTA top 50

Rk	Player	Country	Pts	ELO overall	ELO clay	ELO grass	ELO hard
1	Aryna Sabalenka	BLR	9090	2089	1801	1588	2045
2	Elena Rybakina	KAZ	8143	2040	1766	1580	1972
3	Iga Swiatek	POL	6733	1957	1809	1658	1852
4	Jessica Pegula	USA	6056	1979	1701	1583	1901
5	Amanda Anisimova	USA	5848	1906	1580	1638	1822
6	Mirra Andreeva	RUS	5751	1995	1867	1513	1797
7	Coco Gauff	USA	4879	1980	1824	1519	1871
8	Elina Svitolina	UKR	4315	1996	1824	1550	1824
9	Victoria Mboko	CAN	3670	1937	1726	1515	1891
10	Karolina Muchova	CZE	3438	1927	1602	1494	1869
11	Belinda Bencic	SUI	3385	1904	1636	1561	1831
12	Marta Kostyuk	UKR	3157	1959	1801	1449	1755
13	Linda Noskova	CZE	3054	1869	1599	1583	1763
14	Jasmine Paolini	ITA	2617	1809	1701	1585	1741
15	Naomi Osaka	JPN	2571	1855	1688	1514	1734
16	Diana Shnaider	RUS	2506	1841	1701	1565	1686
17	Ekaterina Alexandrova	RUS	2449	1711	1556	1584	1662
18	Sorana Cirstea	ROU	2415	1919	1714	1429	1797
19	Iva Jovic	USA	2366	1833	1667	1601	1759
20	Anna Kalinskaya	RUS	2212	1834	1631	1546	1721
21	Maja Chwalinska	POL	1996	1860	1795	1483	1693
22	Elise Mertens	BEL	1918	1811	1619	1581	1714
23	Leylah Fernandez	CAN	1844	1760	1569	1546	1679
24	Clara Tauson	DEN	1800	1719	1527	1520	1679
25	Emma Navarro	USA	1779	1759	1653	1590	1613
26	Madison Keys	USA	1772	1864	1732	1558	1766
27	Anastasia Potapova	RUS	1640	1855	1743	1484	1640
28	Marie Bouzkova	CZE	1631	1787	1702	1476	1648
29	Ann Li	USA	1601	1759	1646	1478	1647
30	Hailey Baptiste	USA	1513	1790	1667	1488	1667
31	Xin Yu Wang	CHN	1431	1719	1537	1591	1616
32	Katerina Siniakova	CZE	1422	1771	1559	1578	1693
33	Alexandra Eala	PHI	1416	1837	1495	1665	1748
34	Cristina Bucsa	ESP	1406	1705	1443	1514	1684
35	Liudmila Samsonova	RUS	1405	1680	1593	1619	1566
36	Jelena Ostapenko	LAT	1404	1762	1660	1534	1621
37	Maria Sakkari	GRE	1328	1729	1589	1486	1658
38	Jaqueline Cristian	ROU	1294	1767	1631	1432	1698
39	Mccartney Kessler	USA	1289	1751	1547	1583	1688
40	Janice Tjen	INA	1267	1780	1634	1503	1785
41	Elisabetta Cocciaretto	ITA	1260	1800	1586	1577	1689
42	Emma Raducanu	GBR	1241	1727	1548	1577	1658
43	Magdalena Frech	POL	1238	1655	1530	1434	1613
44	Laura Siegemund	GER	1230	1691	1553	1541	1592
45	Barbora Krejcikova	CZE	1211	1743	1550	1606	1647
46	Sara Bejlek	CZE	1205	1783	1736	1486	1653
47	Tereza Valentova	CZE	1165	1829	1727	1517	1788
48	Marketa Vondrousova	CZE	1133	1728	1606	1578	1609
49	Dayana Yastremska	UKR	1126	1743	1640	1575	1594
50	Petra Marcinko	CRO	1123	1771	1743	1467	1633

Top Kalshi edges

#1 Marco Cecchinato ELITE_LOW_N

Marco Cecchinato vs Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera on hard — model 45% vs market 15% (+30.0pp). ELITE_LOW_N, ask 15¢.

#2 Andres Andrade ELITE_LOW_N

Andres Andrade vs Colton Smith on hard — model 49% vs market 20% (+29.4pp). ELITE_LOW_N, ask 20¢. Form: Andres Andra=COLD | Colton Smith=WARM.

#3 Gonzalo Bueno STRONG_LOW_N

Gonzalo Bueno vs Jerome Kym on hard — model 45% vs market 16% (+29.0pp). STRONG_LOW_N, ask 16¢.

#4 Adam Walton ELITE_LOW_N

Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios on hard — model 64% vs market 93% (+-28.5pp). ELITE_LOW_N, ask 93¢.

#5 Florent Bax ELITE_LOW_N

Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch on hard — model 45% vs market 17% (+28.0pp). ELITE_LOW_N, ask 17¢.

Top PrizePicks edges

#1 Martin Landaluce ELITE_LOW_N

Martin Landaluce LESS 0.5 Total Tie Breaks vs Jan-Lennard Struff — proj 0.2 (+50.0% edge). Surface: clay.

#2 Rei Sakamoto ELITE_LOW_N

Rei Sakamoto LESS 0.5 Total Tie Breaks vs Anton Matusevich — proj 0.2 (+49.9% edge). Surface: clay.

#3 Jack Draper STRONG_LOW_N

Jack Draper LESS 0.5 Total Tie Breaks vs Brandon Nakashima — proj 0.2 (+49.9% edge). Surface: clay.

Fade signals

Clara Tauson (RETURNING): RETURNING form tag — fade or fade-against.
Gabriel Diallo (COLD): COLD form tag — fade or fade-against.
Raphael Collignon (RETURNING): RETURNING form tag — fade or fade-against.
Maya Joint (RETURNING): RETURNING form tag — fade or fade-against.
Antonia Ruzic (COLD): COLD form tag — fade or fade-against.
Francisco Comesana (COLD): COLD form tag — fade or fade-against.
Jan Lennard Struff (COLD): COLD form tag — fade or fade-against.
Alexei Popyrin (COLD): COLD form tag — fade or fade-against.

Surface leans

Surface	Matches	% strong fav	Lean
hard	5	0.0%	pick'em slate
grass	154	3.9%	pick'em slate

ATP (current surface: grass, top 50 by composite)

Rk	Player	Country	Composite	ELO overall	ELO grass	Form	Off. rank
1	Jannik Sinner	ITA	2051.6	2167	1695	WARM	1
2	Carlos Alcaraz	ESP	1923.6	2070	1717	RETURNING	2
3	Rafael Jodar	ESP	1913.0	1893	1893	WARM	23
4	Alexander Zverev	GER	1898.3	1994	1594	WARM	3
5	Daniil Medvedev	RUS	1808.0	1884	1585	WARM	8
6	Arthur Fils	FRA	1791.0	1892	1546	WARM	21
7	Novak Djokovic	SRB	1788.6	1929	1636	RETURNING	7
8	Tommy Paul	USA	1778.5	1851	1587	WARM	28
9	Felix Auger Aliassime	CAN	1777.3	1854	1517	WARM	4
10	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	PAR	1775.3	1755	1755	WARM	72
11	Alex De Minaur	AUS	1775.0	1851	1590	NEUTRAL	6
12	Daniel Merida Aguilar	ESP	1767.7	1748	1748	WARM	82
13	Yibing Wu	CHN	1766.8	1747	1747	WARM	101
14	Ben Shelton	USA	1764.8	1816	1561	WARM	5
15	Flavio Cobolli	ITA	1759.5	1833	1557	WARM	10
16	Casper Ruud	NOR	1758.5	1866	1502	WARM	14
17	Lorenzo Musetti	ITA	1753.5	1832	1607	NEUTRAL	16
18	Dino Prizmic	CRO	1753.2	1813	1499	HOT	70
19	Jiri Lehecka	CZE	1750.1	1814	1574	WARM	12
20	Alejandro Tabilo	CHI	1739.8	1798	1575	WARM	31
21	Joao Fonseca	BRA	1737.3	1837	1495	WARM	25
22	Alexander Blockx	BEL	1730.5	1820	1508	WARM	37
23	Jakub Mensik	CZE	1730.1	1825	1497	WARM	17
24	Toby Samuel	GBR	1728.8	1709	1709	WARM	150
25	Learner Tien	USA	1727.2	1847	1506	NEUTRAL	19
26	Taylor Fritz	USA	1724.0	1793	1722	RETURNING	9
27	Stefanos Sakellaridis	GRE	1711.7	1692	1692	WARM	155
28	Alexander Bublik	KAZ	1709.5	1785	1569	NEUTRAL	11
29	Rei Sakamoto	JPN	1706.3	1686	1686	WARM	149
30	Valentin Vacherot	MON	1703.4	1800	1467	WARM	20
31	Andrey Rublev	RUS	1703.1	1804	1516	NEUTRAL	13
32	Zachary Svajda	USA	1696.9	1722	1650	NEUTRAL	62
33	Michael Mmoh	USA	1695.3	1675	1675	WARM	195
34	Alex Molcan	SVK	1694.0	1744	1744	RETURNING	102
35	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo	ESP	1691.4	1641	1641	HOT	226
36	Kilian Feldbausch	SUI	1688.9	1669	1669	WARM	287
37	Pablo Carreno Busta	ESP	1684.3	1761	1484	WARM	71
38	Buvaysar Gadamauri	BEL	1684.1	1664	1664	WARM	261
39	Francisco Cerundolo	ARG	1682.9	1790	1426	WARM	27
40	Jack Draper	GBR	1682.2	1806	1594	RETURNING	112
41	Mariano Navone	ARG	1679.8	1767	1460	WARM	39
42	Franco Roncadelli	URU	1679.0	1659	1659	WARM	227
43	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	ESP	1677.3	1749	1545	NEUTRAL	22
44	Roman Andres Burruchaga	ARG	1676.8	1733	1514	WARM	63
45	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	ARG	1675.7	1756	1469	WARM	45
46	Hubert Hurkacz	POL	1675.6	1714	1547	WARM	96
47	Ignacio Buse	PER	1671.0	1773	1482	NEUTRAL	35
48	Matteo Berrettini	ITA	1670.6	1749	1524	NEUTRAL	48
49	Brandon Nakashima	USA	1670.4	1713	1590	NEUTRAL	32
50	Bu Yunchaokete	CHN	1668.7	1709	1536	WARM	131

WTA (current surface: grass, top 50 by composite)

Rk	Player	Country	Composite	ELO overall	ELO grass	Form	Off. rank
1	Aryna Sabalenka	BLR	1963.9	2089	1588	WARM	1
2	Elena Rybakina	KAZ	1925.9	2040	1580	WARM	2
3	Alexandra Shubladze	RUS	1898.6	1879	1879	WARM	184
4	Jeline Vandromme	BEL	1883.0	1863	1863	WARM	176
5	Jessica Pegula	USA	1881.7	1979	1583	WARM	4
6	Iga Swiatek	POL	1876.4	1957	1658	NEUTRAL	3
7	Elina Svitolina	UKR	1869.3	1996	1550	WARM	8
8	Lisa Pigato	ITA	1866.5	1846	1846	WARM	132
9	Mirra Andreeva	RUS	1861.0	1995	1513	WARM	6
10	Coco Gauff	USA	1850.8	1980	1519	WARM	7
11	Akasha Urhobo	USA	1843.4	1823	1823	WARM	180
12	Tyra Caterina Grant	USA	1840.5	1820	1820	WARM	157
13	Dayeon Back	KOR	1825.7	1806	1806	WARM	279
14	Kaitlin Quevedo	USA	1824.7	1825	1825	NEUTRAL	107
15	Victoria Mboko	CAN	1815.1	1937	1515	WARM	9
16	Laura Samson	CZE	1810.3	1810	1810	NEUTRAL	137
17	Alice Tubello	FRA	1810.1	1790	1790	WARM	222
18	Belinda Bencic	SUI	1804.3	1904	1561	WARM	11
19	Carol Young Suh Lee	POC	1801.3	1781	1781	WARM	192
20	Jennifer Ruggeri	ITA	1801.1	1781	1781	WARM	213
21	Marta Kostyuk	UKR	1800.2	1959	1449	WARM	12
22	Anastasia Zolotareva	RUS	1798.0	1778	1778	WARM	233
23	Kristina Liutova	RUS	1796.5	1777	1777	WARM	229
24	Luisina Giovannini	ARG	1793.4	1843	1843	RETURNING	173
25	Angela Fita Boluda	ESP	1793.2	1773	1773	WARM	195
26	Eva Guerrero Alvarez	ESP	1791.5	1772	1772	WARM	274
27	Linda Noskova	CZE	1788.9	1869	1583	WARM	13
28	Hayu Kinoshita	JPN	1787.3	1767	1767	WARM	217
29	Martyna Kubka	POL	1784.6	1765	1765	WARM	243
30	Darya Astakhova	RUS	1782.7	1763	1763	WARM	236
31	Amanda Anisimova	USA	1780.3	1906	1638	RETURNING	5
32	Samira De Stefano	ITA	1779.4	1759	1759	WARM	263
33	Alexandra Eala	PHI	1776.5	1837	1665	NEUTRAL	33
34	Caijsa Wilda Hennemann	SWE	1773.6	1774	1774	NEUTRAL	276
35	Lilli Tagger	AUT	1770.9	1771	1771	NEUTRAL	86
36	Claire Liu	USA	1770.0	1750	1750	WARM	148
37	Sorana Cirstea	ROU	1767.4	1919	1429	WARM	18
38	Lanlana Tararudee	THA	1766.5	1860	1536	WARM	94
39	Daria Snigur	UKR	1765.8	1863	1528	WARM	84
40	Veronika Podrez	UKR	1764.2	1814	1814	RETURNING	145
41	Lucie Havlickova	CZE	1758.1	1738	1738	WARM	212
42	Sohyun Park	KOR	1756.7	1737	1737	WARM	270
43	Julie Struplova	CZE	1755.7	1786	1786	COLD	272
44	Tatiana Prozorova	RUS	1755.6	1806	1806	RETURNING	172
45	Elizara Yaneva	BUL	1752.5	1752	1752	NEUTRAL	225
46	Iva Jovic	USA	1751.9	1833	1601	NEUTRAL	19
47	Oleksandra Oliynykova	CRO	1748.0	1859	1485	WARM	51
48	Hanyu Guo	CHN	1747.7	1728	1728	WARM	156
49	Anhelina Kalinina	UKR	1746.9	1842	1513	WARM	69
50	Rebeka Masarova	ESP	1746.2	1813	1623	NEUTRAL	140

ATP on CLAY (top 15 by surface tilt)

Player	Δ ELO	ELO clay	ELO overall	Form	Off. rank
Zdenek Kolar	+27.9	1617	1589	NEUTRAL	162
Gustavo Heide	+25.1	1725	1700	RETURNING	182
Jan Choinski	+19.6	1688	1668	COLD	105
Juan Carlos Prado Angelo	+19.3	1648	1628	RETURNING	161
Gonzalo Bueno	+17.6	1637	1619	RETURNING	180
Luciano Darderi	+17.2	1790	1772	WARM	18
Valentin Royer	+16.5	1654	1638	WARM	74
Alex Barrena	+13.9	1571	1557	NEUTRAL	197
Jesper De Jong	+12.7	1672	1659	NEUTRAL	83
Hugo Dellien	+11.2	1688	1677	RETURNING	165
Timofey Skatov	+11.0	1631	1620	NEUTRAL	175
Tomas Barrios Vera	+9.1	1686	1677	COLD	138
Lukas Neumayer	+8.9	1693	1684	WARM	168
Marco Trungelliti	+8.6	1684	1675	NEUTRAL	80
Facundo Diaz Acosta	+4.7	1703	1698	RETURNING	128

WTA on CLAY (top 15 by surface tilt)

Player	Δ ELO	ELO clay	ELO overall	Form	Off. rank
Katarzyna Kawa	+26.3	1730	1704	HOT	143
Despina Papamichail	+7.5	1686	1679	NEUTRAL	168
Teodora Kostovic	+4.7	1735	1730	NEUTRAL	182
Anna Bondar	+4.5	1779	1775	WARM	75
Simona Waltert	-2.9	1764	1767	WARM	90
Carole Monnet	-3.1	1662	1665	NEUTRAL	191
Julia Grabher	-4.8	1715	1720	NEUTRAL	116
Andrea Lazaro Garcia	-7.6	1791	1799	WARM	153
Luisina Giovannini	-10.7	1833	1843	RETURNING	173
Veronika Erjavec	-12.4	1739	1752	WARM	89
Darja Semenistaja	-13.5	1778	1792	WARM	102
Mayar Sherif	-13.8	1707	1720	RETURNING	118
Whitney Osuigwe	-13.8	1668	1682	WARM	183
Nuria Brancaccio	-14.1	1658	1672	COLD	177
Tamara Zidansek	-15.2	1761	1777	RETURNING	134

ATP on GRASS (top 15 by surface tilt)

Player	Δ ELO	ELO grass	ELO overall	Form	Off. rank
Shintaro Mochizuki	+54.6	1565	1511	RETURNING	129
Nicolas Jarry	+29.4	1564	1535	RETURNING	189
Billy Harris	+25.6	1541	1515	COLD	144
Adrian Mannarino	+19.4	1584	1565	COLD	46
Roberto Bautista Agut	-25.0	1551	1576	COLD	116
Aleksandar Vukic	-31.8	1537	1569	COLD	100
Otto Virtanen	-49.0	1631	1680	NEUTRAL	158
Tristan Schoolkate	-50.4	1550	1600	WARM	123
Alex Bolt	-56.1	1592	1648	WARM	157
August Holmgren	-56.7	1548	1605	WARM	148
Gabriel Diallo	-63.2	1576	1639	COLD	54
Marcos Giron	-71.3	1570	1641	WARM	88
Zachary Svajda	-72.3	1650	1722	NEUTRAL	62
Marin Cilic	-73.2	1611	1684	NEUTRAL	47
Ugo Blanchet	-74.7	1459	1534	COLD	173

WTA on GRASS (top 15 by surface tilt)

Player	Δ ELO	ELO grass	ELO overall	Form	Off. rank
Tatjana Maria	-18.0	1598	1616	NEUTRAL	52
Beatriz Haddad Maia	-64.5	1514	1578	COLD	108
Viktoriya Tomova	-107.0	1500	1607	NEUTRAL	167
Ajla Tomljanovic	-111.2	1536	1647	NEUTRAL	109
Xin Yu Wang	-127.1	1591	1719	NEUTRAL	31
Kamilla Rakhimova	-128.2	1576	1705	NEUTRAL	78
Linda Fruhvirtova	-133.9	1543	1677	NEUTRAL	164
Suzan Lamens	-135.0	1489	1624	COLD	125
Lulu Sun	-136.6	1519	1655	NEUTRAL	110
Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva	-136.9	1499	1636	NEUTRAL	124
Rebecca Sramkova	-137.3	1509	1646	NEUTRAL	120
Dalma Galfi	-138.3	1576	1714	NEUTRAL	117
Ashlyn Krueger	-149.2	1563	1712	NEUTRAL	113
Elena Gabriela Ruse	-159.4	1570	1730	NEUTRAL	88
Bianca Andreescu	-161.6	1539	1700	NEUTRAL	158

ATP on HARD (top 15 by surface tilt)

Player	Δ ELO	ELO hard	ELO overall	Form	Off. rank
Hugo Gaston	+45.5	1666	1620	WARM	119
Luca Van Assche	+35.7	1704	1668	WARM	98
Toby Samuel	+29.5	1738	1709	WARM	150
Gauthier Onclin	+6.0	1613	1607	HOT	186
Clement Chidekh	+5.5	1629	1624	NEUTRAL	200
Rinky Hijikata	+3.2	1683	1680	WARM	106
Alexis Galarneau	+2.9	1613	1610	WARM	187
Coleman Wong	-1.9	1641	1643	WARM	108
Benjamin Bonzi	-3.0	1678	1680	WARM	99
Michael Mmoh	-10.9	1664	1675	WARM	195
Borna Gojo	-11.2	1698	1709	WARM	178
Ethan Quinn	-13.2	1683	1696	WARM	67
Marcos Giron	-13.6	1628	1641	WARM	88
Sho Shimabukuro	-14.6	1643	1657	NEUTRAL	104
Terence Atmane	-14.7	1627	1641	NEUTRAL	53

WTA on HARD (top 15 by surface tilt)

Player	Δ ELO	ELO hard	ELO overall	Form	Off. rank
Talia Gibson	+53.5	1832	1779	HOT	63
Hanne Vandewinkel	+51.2	1848	1796	HOT	97
Xiaodi You	+1.4	1730	1729	WARM	170
Kimberly Birrell	-6.3	1751	1757	WARM	74
Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva	-6.9	1629	1636	WARM	124
Ye Xin Ma	-9.4	1684	1693	WARM	189
Sofia Costoulas	-11.2	1729	1740	WARM	150
Taylah Preston	-15.5	1796	1811	WARM	126
Polina Iatcenko	-17.5	1721	1738	NEUTRAL	163
Himeno Sakatsume	-18.4	1742	1761	NEUTRAL	127
Vendula Valdmannova	-18.6	1785	1804	WARM	199
Priscilla Hon	-19.1	1646	1665	NEUTRAL	146
Harriet Dart	-23.5	1740	1763	WARM	160
Francisca Jorge	-27.2	1699	1727	RETURNING	196
Hanyu Guo	-27.7	1700	1728	WARM	156

WTA on INDOOR (top 15 by surface tilt)

Player	Δ ELO	ELO indoor	ELO overall	Form	Off. rank
Linda Klimovicova	-124.1	1616	1740	NEUTRAL	165
Kimberly Birrell	-177.1	1580	1757	NEUTRAL	74
Ye Xin Ma	-177.9	1515	1693	WARM	189
Carole Monnet	-194.2	1471	1665	NEUTRAL	191
Elvina Kalieva	-209.7	1521	1731	WARM	135
Himeno Sakatsume	-218.0	1543	1761	NEUTRAL	127
Emerson Jones	-222.0	1584	1806	WARM	133
Dalma Galfi	-228.3	1486	1714	NEUTRAL	117
Marina Bassols Ribera	-229.2	1503	1732	WARM	144
Tamara Korpatsch	-240.1	1534	1774	WARM	79
Mona Barthel	-254.2	1500	1754	WARM	193
Polina Iatcenko	-254.5	1484	1738	NEUTRAL	163
Sofia Costoulas	-256.1	1484	1740	WARM	150
Vendula Valdmannova	-269.7	1534	1804	WARM	199
Daria Snigur	-273.9	1589	1863	WARM	84

⚠ Caveat: Model CLV anti-correlated with skill (Phase A finding); treat parlays as paper.

Kalshi cross-match (independent fav parlays)

No combos surfaced.

Kalshi same-match (correlated)

No combos surfaced.

PrizePicks slips

Label	Variance	Legs	Joint P	Payout	EV/$
2-pick MED-variance	MED	Elisabetta Cocciaretto MORE 7.5 Total Games Won, Alex Michelsen LESS 12.5 Total Games Won	0.391	5.00x	0.956
2-pick HIGH-variance	HIGH	Elvina Kalieva LESS 4.5 Aces, Taylor Fritz LESS 0.5 Total Tie Breaks	0.422	10.00x	3.221
3-pick MED-variance	MED	Elisabetta Cocciaretto MORE 7.5 Total Games Won, Alex Michelsen LESS 12.5 Total Games Won, Naomi Osaka MORE 19.5 Total Games	0.240	10.00x	1.405
3-pick HIGH-variance	HIGH	Elvina Kalieva LESS 4.5 Aces, Taylor Fritz LESS 0.5 Total Tie Breaks, Alex de Minaur MORE 5.5 Aces	0.246	25.00x	5.153
4-pick MED-variance	MED	Elisabetta Cocciaretto MORE 7.5 Total Games Won, Alex Michelsen LESS 12.5 Total Games Won, Naomi Osaka MORE 19.5 Total Games, Denis Shapovalov LESS 12.5 Total Games Won	0.145	18.00x	1.614
4-pick HIGH-variance	HIGH	Elvina Kalieva LESS 4.5 Aces, Taylor Fritz LESS 0.5 Total Tie Breaks, Alex de Minaur MORE 5.5 Aces, Alejandro Tabilo MORE 5.5 Aces	0.143	50.00x	6.143

⚠ Inverted CLV signal: win rate at POSITIVE CLV (0.429) < win rate at NEGATIVE CLV (0.6562). When we beat the close, we LOSE; when we lose the close, we WIN. Model is anti-correlated with skill. Real money gated.

CLV vs Pinnacle close (overall)

n picks total	1802
matched Pinnacle	370 (20.5%)
mean CLV (pp)	16.16
median CLV (pp)	15.824
win rate at +CLV	0.429
win rate at -CLV	0.6562

CLV by market price bucket (FLB signal)

Bucket	n	Mean CLV (pp)
<10%	30	32.535
10-30%	146	21.473
30-50%	129	11.786
50-70%	49	6.21
70-90%	8	3.478
>90%	8	1.915

Calibration buckets

n_total	1321
ECE (pp)	4.355
Brier Score	0.2417
Log Loss	0.6762

Predicted vs actual (10pp buckets)

Bucket	n	Predicted	Actual	Gap (pp)
0.2-0.30	20	0.2832	0.35	+6.68
0.3-0.40	154	0.3585	0.2792	-7.93
0.4-0.50	521	0.4513	0.4319	-1.95
0.5-0.60	487	0.5448	0.4949	-4.99
0.6-0.70	124	0.6405	0.5806	-5.98
0.7-0.80	14	0.7179	0.8571	+13.93
0.8-0.90	1	0.8232	1.0	+17.68

Source	DB / file	Last pulled	Age	Rows	Status
Kalshi KXATPMATCH	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-08-01T17:40:20.392886+00:00	4m	1862	fresh
Kalshi KXWTAMATCH	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-08-01T17:40:20.392886+00:00	4m	1898	fresh
Kalshi KXFRENCHOPEN	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-08-01T17:40:20.392886+00:00	4m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXFOPENMENSINGLE	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-08-01T17:40:20.392886+00:00	4m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-08-01T17:40:20.392886+00:00	4m	14	fresh
Kalshi KXUSOPEN	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-08-01T17:40:20.392886+00:00	4m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATPSETWINNER	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-08-01T17:40:20.392886+00:00	4m	4314	fresh
Kalshi KXATPTOTALSETS	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-08-01T17:40:20.392886+00:00	4m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATPSETSWEEP	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-08-01T17:40:20.392886+00:00	4m	2	fresh
Kalshi KXATPGAMESPREAD	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-08-01T17:40:20.392886+00:00	4m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATPEXACTMATCH	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-08-01T17:40:20.392886+00:00	4m	4220	fresh
Kalshi KXWTADOUBLES	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-08-01T17:40:20.392886+00:00	4m	292	fresh
Kalshi KXATP1RANK	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-08-01T17:40:20.392886+00:00	4m	16	fresh
elo last computed	tennis.sqlite	2026-06-21T17:36:52+00:00	984.12h	20430	stale
rankings last pulled	tennis.sqlite	2026-06-15T17:40:18+00:00	1128.07h	11348	stale
rankings atp latest date	tennis.sqlite	2026-06-08	1313.74h	—	stale
rankings wta latest date	tennis.sqlite	2026-06-08	1313.74h	—	stale
mirror atp schedule	tennis.sqlite	2026-08-01T17:42:16.278239+00:00	1m	323	fresh
h2h last computed	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-17T10:11:57.514615+00:00	1831.54h	—	stale
h2h n pairs	tennis.sqlite	190184	missing	—	missing
last player db run	tennis.sqlite	1785606160	missing	—	missing
results last_run	tennis_results.sqlite	[2026-08-01T17:42:19.106285+00:00] 2026-08-01T17:42:16.732615+00:00; dates=['20260731']; rows=310; resolved=299	missing	—	missing
pp_edges CSV	pp_edges_tennis_2026-08-01.csv	2026-08-01T17:42:55.179040+00:00	1m	—	fresh
kalshi edges JSON	tennis_kalshi_edges_2026-08-01.json	2026-08-01T17:42:51.902940+00:00	1m	—	fresh
paper trades PP	paper_trades_pp_tennis_2026-08-01.json	2026-08-01T17:43:51.119202+00:00	0m	—	fresh
paper trades Kalshi	paper_trades_kalshi_tennis_2026-08-01.json	2026-08-01T17:43:51.679050+00:00	0m	—	fresh
daily payload	daily_tennis_2026-08-01.json	2026-08-01T17:43:55.030801+00:00	0m	—	fresh
PP movement	pp_line_movement_tennis_2026-08-01.csv	2026-08-01T17:43:54.056789+00:00	0m	—	fresh
PP calibration	pp_calibration_tennis.json	2026-08-01T17:43:53.950819+00:00	0m	—	fresh