Tennis EdgeBoard - 2026-05-29

Kalshi KXATPMATCH 12.0h · 1800rKalshi KXWTAMATCH 12.0h · 1672rKalshi KXFRENCHOPEN 12.0hKalshi KXFOPENMENSINGLE 12.0hKalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM 12.0h · 14rKalshi KXUSOPEN 12.0hKalshi KXATPSETWINNER 12.0h · 3718rKalshi KXATPTOTALSETS 12.0hKalshi KXATPSETSWEEP 12.0h · 1rKalshi KXATPGAMESPREAD 12.0hKalshi KXATPEXACTMATCH 12.0h · 1768rKalshi KXWTADOUBLES 12.0h · 106rKalshi KXATP1RANK 12.0h · 16relo last computed 12.0h · 20051rrankings last pulled 12.0h · 7538rrankings atp latest date 5drankings wta latest date 5dmirror atp schedule 11.9h · 68rh2h last computed 12dh2h n pairs missinglast player db run missingresults last_run missingpp_edges CSV 11.9hkalshi edges JSON 11.9hpaper trades PP 0mpaper trades Kalshi 0mdaily payload 11.9hPP movement 11.9hPP calibration 11.9h

Matches today

scheduled

ELITE edges

across Kalshi + PP

STRONG edges

tier 2

MED edges

tier 3

Paper locks

Kalshi + PP

Real Money YTD

-$10.00

paper-gate restored

Qualifying skipped

filtered out today

Last refresh

05:37

2026-05-30 UTC

🏆 Best Bet (main-draw)

No main-draw Kalshi pick survived qualifying filter today.

🎯 Safest (P ≥ 65%)

Alex de Minaur

Jakub Mensik vs Alex de Minaur · Round 3 clay · LOW

73%

Heavy main-draw favorite · PAPER

Edge +42.8pp
Ask 30¢

💎 Biggest Payout (ELITE)

No ELITE main-draw longshot today.

#	Match	Tournament	Round	Surface	Start	ELO A	ELO B	ELO diff	Kalshi event
1	Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic	Roland Garros	Round 3	clay	May 29 14:00	1638	1738	-101	KXATPMATCH-26MAY29FONDJO
2	Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic	Roland Garros	Round 3	clay	May 29 14:00	1638	1738	-101	KXATPMATCH-26MAY29FONDJO
3	Karen Khachanov vs Jesper De Jong	Roland Garros	Round 3	clay	May 29 14:20	1586	1646	-60	KXATPMATCH-26MAY29KHADEJ
4	Karen Khachanov vs Jesper De Jong	Roland Garros	Round 3	clay	May 29 14:20	1586	1646	-60	KXATPMATCH-26MAY29KHADEJ
5	Alex De Minaur vs Jakub Mensik	Roland Garros	Round 3	clay	May 29 15:50	1652	1589	+63	KXATPMATCH-26MAY29DEMEN
6	Alex De Minaur vs Jakub Mensik	Roland Garros	Round 3	clay	May 29 15:50	1652	1589	+63	KXATPMATCH-26MAY29DEMEN
7	Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul	Roland Garros	Round 3	clay	May 29 16:30	1744	1748	-4	KXATPMATCH-26MAY29RUUPAU
8	Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul	Roland Garros	Round 3	clay	May 29 16:30	1744	1748	-4	KXATPMATCH-26MAY29RUUPAU
9	Peyton Stearns vs Belinda Bencic	Roland Garros	Round 3	clay	May 29 18:00	1636	1584	+52	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY29STEBEN
10	Peyton Stearns vs Belinda Bencic	Roland Garros	Round 3	clay	May 29 18:00	1636	1584	+52	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY29STEBEN
11	Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev	Roland Garros	Round 3	clay	May 29 18:15	1533	1816	-283	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY29HALZVE-3
12	Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev	Roland Garros	Round 3	clay	May 29 18:15	1533	1816	-283	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY29HALZVE-3

#	Match	Our pick	Our P	Mkt P	Ask	Edge	Tier	Decision	Vol 24h	Surface	Round	EV/$
1	Jakub Mensik vs Alex de Minaur	Alex de Minaur	72.8%	30.0%	30¢	+42.8pp	LOW	PAPER	1758214	clay	Round 3	+0.427
2	Zachary Svajda vs Francisco Cerundolo	Zachary Svajda	49.0%	11.0%	11¢	+38.0pp	LOW	PAPER	20677	hard	Round Of 32	+0.380
3	Diana Shnaider vs Oleksandra Oliynykova	Oleksandra Oliynykova	63.7%	28.0%	28¢	+35.7pp	LOW	PAPER	6824	clay	Round 3	+0.357
4	Xiyu Wang vs Sorana Cirstea	Xiyu Wang	46.0%	18.0%	18¢	+28.0pp	LOW	PAPER	750	hard	Round Of 16	+0.280
5	Karen Khachanov vs Jesper De Jong	Karen Khachanov	41.6%	14.0%	14¢	+27.6pp	LOW	PAPER	3250174	clay	Round 3	+0.276
6	Daria Kasatkina vs Aryna Sabalenka	Daria Kasatkina	37.5%	11.0%	11¢	+26.5pp	LOW	PAPER	16556	clay	Round 3	+0.265
7	Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo	Moise Kouame	45.2%	19.0%	19¢	+26.2pp	LOW	PAPER	18360	hard	Round Of 32	+0.262
8	Belinda Bencic vs Peyton Stearns	Peyton Stearns	54.4%	29.0%	29¢	+25.4pp	LOW	PAPER	42678	clay	Round 3	+0.254
9	Learner Tien vs Flavio Cobolli	Learner Tien	59.8%	36.0%	36¢	+23.8pp	LOW	PAPER	28281	hard	Round Of 32	+0.238
10	Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev	Quentin Halys	31.7%	8.0%	8¢	+23.7pp	LOW	PAPER	220460	hard	Round Of 32	+0.237
11	Amanda Anisimova vs Diane Parry	Diane Parry	41.1%	18.0%	18¢	+23.1pp	LOW	PAPER	2224	clay	Round 3	+0.231
12	Pablo Carreno Busta vs Rafael Jodar	Pablo Carreno Busta	42.6%	21.0%	21¢	+21.6pp	LOW	PAPER	739	hard	Round Of 16	+0.216
13	Jil Teichmann vs Mirra Andreeva	Jil Teichmann	35.4%	14.0%	14¢	+21.4pp	LOW	PAPER	75	clay	Round 4	+0.214
14	Novak Djokovic vs Joao Fonseca	Joao Fonseca	42.5%	22.0%	22¢	+20.5pp	LOW	PAPER	6285628	clay	Round 3	+0.205
15	Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima	Brandon Nakashima	47.4%	28.0%	28¢	+19.4pp	LOW	PAPER	5378	clay	Round 3	+0.194
16	Martin Landaluce vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo	Martin Landaluce	60.4%	42.0%	42¢	+18.4pp	LOW	PAPER	14126	hard	Round Of 32	+0.184
17	Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova	Anastasia Potapova	42.4%	25.0%	25¢	+17.4pp	LOW	PAPER	9034	clay	Round 3	+0.174
18	Frances Tiafoe vs Jaime Faria	Jaime Faria	54.0%	38.0%	38¢	+16.1pp	LOW	PAPER	61626	clay	Round 3	+0.160
19	Maja Chwalinska vs Maria Sakkari	Maja Chwalinska	68.0%	54.0%	54¢	+14.0pp	LOW	PAPER	4253	clay	Round 3	+0.140
20	Anna Kalinskaya vs Camila Osorio	Camila Osorio	56.2%	48.0%	48¢	+8.2pp	LOW	PAPER	1848	clay	Round 3	+0.082
21	Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek	Marta Kostyuk	33.6%	26.0%	26¢	+7.6pp	LOW	PAPER	609	clay	Round 4	+0.076
22	Francisco Comesana vs Matteo Berrettini	Francisco Comesana	38.8%	33.0%	33¢	+5.8pp	LOW	PAPER	6029	clay	Round 3	+0.057
23	Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka	Iva Jovic	53.2%	48.0%	48¢	+5.2pp	LOW	PAPER	22173	clay	Round 3	+0.052
24	Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon	Matteo Arnaldi	41.1%	36.0%	36¢	+5.1pp	LOW	PAPER	23234	clay	Round 3	+0.051
25	Tommy Paul vs Casper Ruud	Tommy Paul	50.3%	48.0%	48¢	+2.3pp	LOW	PAPER	905126	clay	Round 3	+0.023
26	Madison Keys vs Victoria Mboko	Madison Keys	49.8%	48.0%	48¢	+1.8pp	LOW	SKIP	2704	clay	Round 3	+0.018

#	Player	Stat	PP line	Our proj	Edge %	Side	Tier	Opp	Surface	Demon	Payout
1	Jil Teichmann🧊 COLD	Break Points Won	2.5	4.12	+64.8%	MORE	LOW	Mirra Andreeva	clay	—	1.0x
2	Learner Tien🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	18.5	8.50	+54.0%	LESS	LOW	Flavio Cobolli	clay	—	0.5x
3	Frances Tiafoe⏳ RTRN	Total Games Won	20.5	10.09	+50.8%	LESS	LOW	Jaime Faria	clay	—	0.5x
4	Rafael Jodar🟨 WARM	Total Tie Breaks	0.5	0.25	+50.1%	LESS	LOW	Pablo Carreno Busta	clay	—	1.0x
5	Matteo Berrettini	Total Tie Breaks	0.5	0.25	+50.0%	LESS	LOW	Francisco Comesana	clay	—	1.0x
6	Francisco Comesana🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	18.5	9.33	+49.5%	LESS	LOW	Matteo Berrettini	clay	—	0.5x
7	Martin Landaluce	Total Games Won	18.5	9.49	+48.7%	LESS	LOW	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	clay	—	0.5x
8	Felix Auger-Aliassime🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	20.5	10.69	+47.8%	LESS	LOW	Brandon Nakashima	clay	—	0.5x
9	Matteo Arnaldi🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	18.5	9.69	+47.6%	LESS	LOW	Raphael Collignon	clay	—	0.5x
10	Alexander Zverev🟨 WARM	Aces	11.0	5.93	+46.0%	LESS	LOW	Quentin Halys	clay	—	0.5x
11	Peyton Stearns	Break Points Won	3.5	5.10	+45.6%	MORE	LOW	Belinda Bencic	clay	—	1.0x
12	Matteo Berrettini	Total Games Won	20.5	11.19	+45.4%	LESS	LOW	Francisco Comesana	clay	—	0.5x
13	Raphael Collignon⏳ RTRN	Total Games Won	20.5	11.27	+45.0%	LESS	LOW	Matteo Arnaldi	clay	—	0.5x
14	Xiyu Wang🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	7.5	10.84	+44.5%	MORE	LOW	Sorana Cirstea	clay	—	0.5x
15	Jaime Faria🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	19.5	10.85	+44.4%	LESS	LOW	Frances Tiafoe	clay	—	0.5x
16	Brandon Nakashima	Total Games Won	18.5	10.32	+44.2%	LESS	LOW	Felix Auger-Aliassime	clay	—	0.5x
17	Daria Kasatkina🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	6.5	9.33	+43.5%	MORE	LOW	Aryna Sabalenka	clay	—	0.5x
18	Francisco Cerundolo🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	6.5	3.70	+43.0%	LESS	LOW	Zachary Svajda	clay	—	1.0x
19	Quentin Halys🧊 COLD	Aces	9.5	5.59	+41.1%	LESS	LOW	Alexander Zverev	clay	—	0.5x
20	Juan Manuel Cerundolo🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	19.5	11.59	+40.5%	LESS	LOW	Martin Landaluce	clay	—	0.5x
21	Marta Kostyuk🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	3.5	4.87	+39.1%	MORE	LOW	Iga Swiatek	clay	—	1.0x
22	Moise Kouame	Total Games Won	14.5	8.93	+38.4%	LESS	LOW	Alejandro Tabilo	clay	—	0.5x
23	Alejandro Tabilo🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	6.0	3.70	+38.4%	LESS	LOW	Moise Kouame	clay	—	1.0x
24	Flavio Cobolli🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	19.5	12.03	+38.3%	LESS	LOW	Learner Tien	clay	—	0.5x
25	Learner Tien🧊 COLD	Break Points Won	4.5	2.79	+38.0%	LESS	LOW	Flavio Cobolli	clay	—	1.0x
26	Flavio Cobolli🟨 WARM	Total Games	37.5	23.25	+38.0%	LESS	LOW	Learner Tien	clay	—	0.5x
27	Alejandro Tabilo🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	19.5	12.10	+38.0%	LESS	LOW	Moise Kouame	clay	—	0.5x
28	Frances Tiafoe⏳ RTRN	Total Games	38.5	25.02	+35.0%	LESS	LOW	Jaime Faria	clay	—	0.5x
29	Juan Manuel Cerundolo🟨 WARM	Total Games	37.5	24.48	+34.7%	LESS	LOW	Martin Landaluce	clay	—	0.5x
30	Raphael Collignon⏳ RTRN	Total Games	38.0	24.82	+34.7%	LESS	LOW	Matteo Arnaldi	clay	—	0.5x
31	Raphael Collignon⏳ RTRN	Break Points Won	5.5	3.60	+34.5%	LESS	LOW	Matteo Arnaldi	clay	—	1.0x
32	Juan Manuel Cerundolo🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	5.5	3.64	+33.8%	LESS	LOW	Martin Landaluce	clay	—	1.0x
33	Flavio Cobolli🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	5.5	3.67	+33.3%	LESS	LOW	Learner Tien	clay	—	1.0x
34	Matteo Berrettini	Total Games	37.5	25.03	+33.2%	LESS	LOW	Francisco Comesana	clay	—	0.5x
35	Felix Auger-Aliassime🟨 WARM	Total Games	37.5	25.06	+33.2%	LESS	LOW	Brandon Nakashima	clay	—	0.5x
36	Alejandro Tabilo🟨 WARM	Total Games	34.5	23.24	+32.6%	LESS	LOW	Moise Kouame	clay	—	0.5x
37	Quentin Halys🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	12.5	8.44	+32.5%	LESS	LOW	Alexander Zverev	clay	—	0.5x
38	Anastasia Potapova🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	3.5	4.62	+32.0%	MORE	LOW	Coco Gauff	clay	—	1.0x
39	Aryna Sabalenka🟨 WARM	Total Games	18.0	23.37	+29.8%	MORE	LOW	Daria Kasatkina	clay	—	0.5x
40	Rafael Jodar🟨 WARM	Total Games	35.5	25.05	+29.4%	LESS	LOW	Pablo Carreno Busta	clay	—	0.5x
41	Matteo Arnaldi🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	4.5	3.19	+29.1%	LESS	LOW	Raphael Collignon	clay	—	1.0x
42	Mirra Andreeva🟨 WARM	Total Games	18.5	23.63	+27.7%	MORE	LOW	Jil Teichmann	clay	—	0.5x
43	Zachary Svajda🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	11.5	8.44	+26.6%	LESS	LOW	Francisco Cerundolo	clay	—	0.5x
44	Alexander Zverev🟨 WARM	Total Games	31.5	23.16	+26.5%	LESS	LOW	Quentin Halys	clay	—	0.5x
45	Iva Jovic🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	4.0	5.06	+26.4%	MORE	LOW	Naomi Osaka	clay	—	1.0x
46	Sorana Cirstea🟨 WARM	Total Games	19.5	24.39	+25.1%	MORE	LOW	Xiyu Wang	clay	—	0.5x
47	Amanda Anisimova⏳ RTRN	Total Games	19.5	24.33	+24.8%	MORE	LOW	Diane Parry	clay	—	0.5x
48	Francisco Cerundolo🟨 WARM	Total Games	30.5	23.08	+24.3%	LESS	LOW	Zachary Svajda	clay	—	0.5x
49	Diana Shnaider	Break Points Won	5.5	4.22	+23.4%	LESS	LOW	Oleksandra Oliynykova	clay	—	1.0x
50	Victoria Mboko🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	4.0	4.93	+23.1%	MORE	LOW	Madison Keys	clay	—	1.0x
51	Madison Keys⏳ RTRN	Break Points Won	4.0	4.93	+23.1%	MORE	LOW	Victoria Mboko	clay	—	1.0x
52	Matteo Berrettini	Break Points Won	4.5	3.58	+20.4%	LESS	LOW	Francisco Comesana	clay	—	1.0x
53	Naomi Osaka🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	4.0	4.82	+20.4%	MORE	LOW	Iva Jovic	clay	—	1.0x
54	Iga Swiatek	Total Games	20.5	24.43	+19.2%	MORE	LOW	Marta Kostyuk	clay	—	0.5x
55	Belinda Bencic🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	12.5	10.13	+19.0%	LESS	LOW	Peyton Stearns	clay	—	1.0x
56	Oleksandra Oliynykova	Total Games Won	10.0	11.72	+17.2%	MORE	LOW	Diana Shnaider	clay	—	0.5x
57	Belinda Bencic🟨 WARM	Total Games	21.0	24.47	+16.6%	MORE	LOW	Peyton Stearns	clay	—	0.5x
58	Anastasia Potapova🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	8.5	9.82	+15.5%	MORE	LOW	Coco Gauff	clay	—	0.5x
59	Coco Gauff🟨 WARM	Total Games	21.0	23.93	+13.9%	MORE	LOW	Anastasia Potapova	clay	—	0.5x
60	Maria Sakkari🧊 COLD	Break Points Won	4.5	3.89	+13.5%	LESS	LOW	Maja Chwalinska	clay	—	1.0x
61	Naomi Osaka🟨 WARM	Total Games	21.5	24.38	+13.4%	MORE	LOW	Iva Jovic	clay	—	0.5x
62	Felix Auger-Aliassime🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	4.0	3.47	+13.3%	LESS	LOW	Brandon Nakashima	clay	—	1.0x
63	Diana Shnaider	Total Games	20.5	23.22	+13.3%	MORE	LOW	Oleksandra Oliynykova	clay	—	0.5x
64	Anna Kalinskaya	Total Games	21.5	24.26	+12.8%	MORE	LOW	Camila Osorio	clay	—	0.5x
65	Diane Parry🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	8.5	9.53	+12.2%	MORE	LOW	Amanda Anisimova	clay	—	0.5x
66	Zachary Svajda🧊 COLD	Break Points Won	2.5	2.73	+9.2%	MORE	LOW	Francisco Cerundolo	clay	—	1.0x
67	Peyton Stearns	Total Games Won	10.0	10.80	+8.0%	MORE	LOW	Belinda Bencic	clay	—	0.5x
68	Maja Chwalinska⏳ RTRN	Break Points Won	5.0	5.36	+7.2%	MORE	LOW	Maria Sakkari	clay	—	1.0x
69	Anna Kalinskaya	Break Points Won	5.0	4.66	+6.8%	LESS	LOW	Camila Osorio	clay	—	1.0x
70	Marta Kostyuk🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	8.5	9.04	+6.3%	MORE	LOW	Iga Swiatek	clay	—	0.5x
71	Mirra Andreeva🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	5.0	5.30	+6.0%	MORE	LOW	Jil Teichmann	clay	—	1.0x
72	Sorana Cirstea🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	5.0	4.76	+4.8%	LESS	LOW	Xiyu Wang	clay	—	1.0x
73	Belinda Bencic🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	5.0	4.78	+4.4%	LESS	LOW	Peyton Stearns	clay	—	1.0x
74	Maja Chwalinska⏳ RTRN	Total Games	22.0	22.93	+4.2%	MORE	LOW	Maria Sakkari	clay	—	0.5x
75	Coco Gauff🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	5.0	5.16	+3.3%	MORE	LOW	Anastasia Potapova	clay	—	1.0x
76	Camila Osorio	Break Points Won	5.0	5.14	+2.9%	MORE	LOW	Anna Kalinskaya	clay	—	1.0x

Kalshi tennis — 0 picks · $0.00 staked

Day 1 - paper only, grade EOD before scaling · locked 2026-05-29T13:10:32.994818+00:00

#	Match	Pick	Our P	Ask	Edge	Tier	Surface	Stake	Status	P&L

PrizePicks tennis — 0 picks · $0.00 staked

Day 1 - paper only, grade EOD before scaling · locked 2026-05-29T13:10:32.937161+00:00

#	Player	Stat	Line	Our proj	Side	Edge	Tier	Surface	Stake	Status	P&L

Polymarket = retail/crypto sentiment. We can't bet there from CA, but the divergence vs Kalshi (sharp) reveals where the public is loading up. Generated 2026-05-29T10:42:08 · flagged threshold = ±3.0pp · 6 flagged futures / 0 flagged matches.

Grand-slam futures · ANY 2026 Slam (Kalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM vs Polymarket per-slam aggregate)

Polymarket "any-slam" probability computed naively as 1 - product(1 - p_slam). Positive divergence = public (Polymarket) more bullish than sharp (Kalshi). Sorted by |divergence|.

Player	Sharp (Kalshi)	Public (Poly)	Δ	Poly per-slam
Felix Auger-Aliassime · exact	44.0%	0.9%	-43.1pp · SHARP HIGHER	Wim 1%
Lorenzo Musetti · exact	44.5%	1.7%	-42.8pp · SHARP HIGHER	Wim 1%, US 1%
Alex de Minaur · exact	43.5%	2.9%	-40.6pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 2%, Wim 1%
Novak Djokovic · exact	25.0%	34.4%	+9.4pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Fre 20%, Wim 15%, US 4%
Jannik Sinner · exact	81.5%	77.3%	-4.2pp · SHARP HIGHER	Wim 56%, US 48%
Daniil Medvedev · exact	10.0%	6.0%	-4.0pp · SHARP HIGHER	Wim 3%, US 3%
Alexander Zverev · exact	40.0%	41.8%	+1.8pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Fre 34%, Wim 8%, US 4%
Karen Khachanov · exact	2.5%	0.8%	-1.7pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 0%, Wim 1%
Alexander Bublik · exact	3.0%	1.4%	-1.6pp · SHARP HIGHER	Wim 1%, US 1%
Jack Draper · exact	4.5%	6.0%	+1.5pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Wim 4%, US 2%
Casper Ruud · exact	8.5%	7.4%	-1.1pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 7%, Wim 1%
Frances Tiafoe · exact	2.0%	2.4%	+0.4pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Fre 1%, Wim 0%, US 1%
Ben Shelton · exact	5.0%	4.7%	-0.3pp · SHARP HIGHER	Wim 3%, US 2%
Taylor Fritz · exact	4.5%	4.4%	-0.1pp · SHARP HIGHER	Wim 3%, US 1%

Per-match overlaps

No active per-match overlaps right now (Polymarket tennis volume concentrates in Grand Slam futures).

Per-stat-type MAE (n_graded=18)

Bar width = MAE (lower = better). "INSUFFICIENT" = need more graded picks.

Total Games

n=4

Ours

Us 6.45
PP 3.25
INSUFFICIENT_N

Total Games Won

n=13

Ours

Us 5.11
PP 4.96
NULL

Total Tie Breaks

n=1

Ours

Us 0.25
PP 0.50
INSUFFICIENT_N

Per-tier MAE

Bar width = MAE (lower = better). "INSUFFICIENT" = need more graded picks.

ELITE

n=16

Ours

Us 4.94
PP 3.75
NULL

MED

n=0

Ours

Us —
PP —
INSUFFICIENT_N

STRONG

n=2

Ours

Us 6.75
PP 9.00
INSUFFICIENT_N

[!]

No AAR available yet.
Expected: ~/.claude/projects/.../memory/aar_tennis_<date>.md

#	Player	Stat	Opp	Open	Latest	Diff	Abs	Direction
1	Casper Ruud	Total Games	Tommy Paul	36.5	37.5	+1.00	1.00	UP
2	Quentin Halys	Total Games Won	Alexander Zverev	16.5	15.5	-1.00	1.00	DOWN
3	Diane Parry	Total Games Won	Amanda Anisimova	7.5	8.5	+1.00	1.00	UP
4	Alexander Zverev	Aces	Quentin Halys	10.5	11.0	+0.50	0.50	UP

ATP top 50

Rk	Player	Country	Pts	ELO overall	ELO clay	ELO grass	ELO hard
1	Jannik Sinner	ITA	14750	2175	1857	1695	2062
2	Carlos Alcaraz	ESP	11960	2070	1867	1717	1956
3	Alexander Zverev	GER	5705	1961	1816	1594	1863
4	Novak Djokovic	SRB	4460	1955	1738	1636	1846
5	Ben Shelton	USA	4070	1848	1683	1561	1765
6	Felix Auger Aliassime	CAN	4050	1864	1605	1517	1803
7	Alex De Minaur	AUS	3855	1847	1652	1590	1806
8	Daniil Medvedev	RUS	3760	1878	1641	1585	1845
9	Taylor Fritz	USA	3720	1826	1581	1722	1749
10	Alexander Bublik	KAZ	3320	1803	1724	1569	1703
11	Lorenzo Musetti	ITA	3115	1828	1756	1607	1723
12	Jiri Lehecka	CZE	2665	1837	1647	1574	1754
13	Andrey Rublev	RUS	2460	1762	1658	1516	1683
14	Flavio Cobolli	ITA	2340	1796	1720	1557	1655
15	Karen Khachanov	RUS	2320	1691	1586	1567	1639
16	Casper Ruud	NOR	2275	1792	1744	1502	1685
17	Luciano Darderi	ITA	2260	1714	1767	1466	1466
18	Learner Tien	USA	2180	1800	1466	1506	1789
19	Valentin Vacherot	MON	2103	1810	1702	1467	1738
20	Arthur Fils	FRA	2040	1912	1762	1546	1771
21	Tommy Paul	USA	1945	1842	1748	1587	1743
22	Frances Tiafoe	USA	1905	1771	1604	1488	1719
23	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	ESP	1860	1756	1572	1545	1703
24	Cameron Norrie	GBR	1785	1776	1658	1529	1682
25	Arthur Rinderknech	FRA	1736	1713	1566	1530	1631
26	Francisco Cerundolo	ARG	1570	1801	1726	1426	1698
27	Jakub Mensik	CZE	1550	1795	1589	1497	1747
28	Tomas Martin Etcheverry	ARG	1510	1785	1693	1456	1636
29	Rafael Jodar	ESP	1461	1874	1714	—	1765
30	Joao Fonseca	BRA	1435	1818	1638	1495	1795
31	Ignacio Buse	PER	1412	1709	1693	1482	1562
32	Ugo Humbert	FRA	1370	1712	1451	1517	1697
33	Tallon Griekspoor	NED	1340	1681	1575	1564	1645
34	Corentin Moutet	FRA	1323	1706	1600	1574	1640
35	Brandon Nakashima	USA	1295	1706	1570	1590	1660
36	Alejandro Tabilo	CHI	1278	1786	1696	1575	1637
37	Alexander Blockx	BEL	1238	1820	1689	1508	1713
38	Mariano Navone	ARG	1215	1718	1716	1460	1507
39	Denis Shapovalov	CAN	1170	1690	1498	1472	1698
40	Zizou Bergs	BEL	1150	1705	1570	1521	1631
41	Jaume Munar	ESP	1145	1695	1563	1508	1635
42	Alex Michelsen	USA	1115	1715	1488	1538	1702
43	Tomas Machac	CZE	1080	1737	1592	1500	1682
44	Holger Rune	DEN	1060	1744	1663	1515	1710
45	Adrian Mannarino	FRA	1037	1589	1390	1584	1569
46	Marin Cilic	CRO	1010	1710	1539	1611	1635
47	Sebastian Korda	USA	1000	1806	1537	1556	1757
48	Miomir Kecmanovic	SRB	980	1607	1483	1500	1595
49	Gabriel Diallo	CAN	975	1651	1554	1576	1615
50	Ethan Quinn	USA	974	1731	1594	1509	1683

WTA top 50

Rk	Player	Country	Pts	ELO overall	ELO clay	ELO grass	ELO hard
1	Aryna Sabalenka	BLR	9960	2115	1808	1588	2045
2	Elena Rybakina	KAZ	8313	2063	1760	1580	1972
3	Iga Swiatek	POL	7273	1924	1780	1658	1852
4	Coco Gauff	USA	6749	1957	1787	1519	1871
5	Jessica Pegula	USA	6286	1997	1701	1583	1901
6	Amanda Anisimova	USA	5958	1916	1561	1638	1822
7	Elina Svitolina	UKR	4315	1922	1727	1550	1824
8	Mirra Andreeva	RUS	4181	1932	1800	1513	1797
9	Victoria Mboko	CAN	3710	1936	1704	1515	1891
10	Karolina Muchova	CZE	3318	1951	1597	1494	1869
11	Belinda Bencic	SUI	3145	1898	1584	1561	1831
12	Linda Noskova	CZE	3054	1881	1589	1583	1763
13	Jasmine Paolini	ITA	2787	1815	1707	1585	1741
14	Ekaterina Alexandrova	RUS	2679	1747	1593	1584	1662
15	Marta Kostyuk	UKR	2387	1924	1757	1449	1755
16	Naomi Osaka	JPN	2341	1819	1628	1514	1734
17	Iva Jovic	USA	2306	1829	1663	1601	1759
18	Sorana Cirstea	ROU	1985	1866	1612	1429	1797
19	Madison Keys	USA	1962	1836	1706	1558	1766
20	Clara Tauson	DEN	1920	1746	1560	1520	1679
21	Elise Mertens	BEL	1858	1802	1580	1581	1714
22	Leylah Fernandez	CAN	1844	1790	1590	1546	1679
23	Diana Shnaider	RUS	1796	1782	1647	1565	1686
24	Anna Kalinskaya	RUS	1792	1784	1538	1546	1721
25	Emma Navarro	USA	1719	1680	1578	1590	1613
26	Hailey Baptiste	USA	1683	1785	1662	1488	1667
27	Liudmila Samsonova	RUS	1635	1697	1604	1619	1566
28	Marie Bouzkova	CZE	1631	1773	1699	1476	1648
29	Ann Li	USA	1601	1745	1638	1478	1647
30	Anastasia Potapova	RUS	1470	1787	1690	1484	1640
31	Jelena Ostapenko	LAT	1464	1723	1632	1534	1621
32	Jaqueline Cristian	ROU	1414	1770	1635	1432	1698
33	Cristina Bucsa	ESP	1406	1738	1475	1514	1684
34	Xin Yu Wang	CHN	1371	1735	1546	1591	1616
35	Sara Bejlek	CZE	1369	1832	1797	1486	1653
36	Katerina Siniakova	CZE	1362	1777	1549	1578	1693
37	Alexandra Eala	PHI	1340	1786	1478	1600	1748
38	Elisabetta Cocciaretto	ITA	1320	1800	1584	1577	1689
39	Emma Raducanu	GBR	1301	1753	1570	1577	1658
40	Janice Tjen	INA	1292	1817	1662	—	1785
41	Barbora Krejcikova	CZE	1271	1715	1480	1606	1647
42	Tereza Valentova	CZE	1265	1845	1746	1517	1788
43	Lois Boisson	FRA	1264	1791	1811	1483	1554
44	Marketa Vondrousova	CZE	1263	1728	1606	1578	1609
45	Dayana Yastremska	UKR	1246	1695	1588	1575	1594
46	Magdalena Frech	POL	1238	1649	1534	1434	1613
47	Laura Siegemund	GER	1230	1680	1535	1541	1592
48	Mccartney Kessler	USA	1229	1754	1516	1583	1688
49	Maria Sakkari	GRE	1208	1707	1563	1486	1658
50	Jessica Bouzas Maneiro	ESP	1200	1658	1643	1524	1578

Source	DB / file	Last pulled	Age	Rows	Status
Kalshi KXATPMATCH	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-29T17:39:53.775718+00:00	11.96h	1800	stale
Kalshi KXWTAMATCH	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-29T17:39:53.775718+00:00	11.96h	1672	stale
Kalshi KXFRENCHOPEN	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-29T17:39:53.775718+00:00	11.96h	0	stale
Kalshi KXFOPENMENSINGLE	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-29T17:39:53.775718+00:00	11.96h	0	stale
Kalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-29T17:39:53.775718+00:00	11.96h	14	stale
Kalshi KXUSOPEN	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-29T17:39:53.775718+00:00	11.96h	0	stale
Kalshi KXATPSETWINNER	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-29T17:39:53.775718+00:00	11.96h	3718	stale
Kalshi KXATPTOTALSETS	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-29T17:39:53.775718+00:00	11.96h	0	stale
Kalshi KXATPSETSWEEP	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-29T17:39:53.775718+00:00	11.96h	1	stale
Kalshi KXATPGAMESPREAD	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-29T17:39:53.775718+00:00	11.96h	0	stale
Kalshi KXATPEXACTMATCH	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-29T17:39:53.775718+00:00	11.96h	1768	stale
Kalshi KXWTADOUBLES	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-29T17:39:53.775718+00:00	11.96h	106	stale
Kalshi KXATP1RANK	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-29T17:39:53.775718+00:00	11.96h	16	stale
elo last computed	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-29T17:39:50+00:00	11.96h	20051	stale
rankings last pulled	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-29T17:39:53+00:00	11.96h	7538	stale
rankings atp latest date	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-25	125.63h	—	stale
rankings wta latest date	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-25	125.63h	—	stale
mirror atp schedule	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-29T17:41:31.571798+00:00	11.94h	68	stale
h2h last computed	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-17T10:11:57.514615+00:00	307.43h	—	stale
h2h n pairs	tennis.sqlite	190184	missing	—	missing
last player db run	tennis.sqlite	1780076509	missing	—	missing
results last_run	tennis_results.sqlite	[2026-05-29T17:41:33.975356+00:00] 2026-05-29T17:41:31.901853+00:00; dates=['20260528']; rows=822; resolved=790	missing	—	missing
pp_edges CSV	pp_edges_tennis_2026-05-29.csv	2026-05-29T17:41:55.788964+00:00	11.93h	—	stale
kalshi edges JSON	tennis_kalshi_edges_2026-05-29.json	2026-05-29T17:41:53.325041+00:00	11.93h	—	stale
paper trades PP	paper_trades_pp_tennis_2026-05-29.json	2026-05-30T05:37:39.110327+00:00	0m	—	fresh
paper trades Kalshi	paper_trades_kalshi_tennis_2026-05-29.json	2026-05-30T05:37:38.661480+00:00	0m	—	fresh
daily payload	daily_tennis_2026-05-29.json	2026-05-29T17:42:00.050189+00:00	11.93h	—	stale
PP movement	pp_line_movement_tennis_2026-05-29.csv	2026-05-29T17:41:59.581717+00:00	11.93h	—	stale
PP calibration	pp_calibration_tennis.json	2026-05-29T17:41:59.499720+00:00	11.93h	—	stale