T
Tennis EdgeBoard
ATP + WTA daily edges - Kalshi + PrizePicks - auto-refresh 2m
Generated
2026-05-21 17:41 UTC
Sources
29
Day-2 calibration reset

Real-money probe lost 0/4 (-$10.00) on 5/17. Sim was wildly over-confident on qualifying-round picks — 8/8 qualifying edges lost despite avg +35pp model edge.

Qualifying filter now active. Real money gate-locked until 5/30 ($50 paper P&L + MAE <3pp + n≥50 graded). See Calibration & Lessons tab for the full Day-2 AAR.

Kalshi KXATPMATCH 2m · 1836rKalshi KXWTAMATCH 2m · 1736rKalshi KXFRENCHOPEN 2mKalshi KXFOPENMENSINGLE 2mKalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM 2m · 14rKalshi KXUSOPEN 2mKalshi KXATPSETWINNER 2m · 3650rKalshi KXATPTOTALSETS 2mKalshi KXATPSETSWEEP 2mKalshi KXATPGAMESPREAD 2mKalshi KXATPEXACTMATCH 2m · 1190rKalshi KXWTADOUBLES 2mKalshi KXATP1RANK 2m · 16relo last computed 2m · 20051rrankings last pulled 2m · 3745rrankings atp latest date 17drankings wta latest date 17dmirror atp schedule 0m · 299rh2h last computed 4dh2h n pairs missinglast player db run missingresults last_run missingpp_edges CSV 0mkalshi edges JSON 0mpaper trades PP 0mpaper trades Kalshi 0mdaily payload 0mPP movement 0mPP calibration 0m
Matches today
6
scheduled
ELITE edges
0
across Kalshi + PP
STRONG edges
0
tier 2
MED edges
0
tier 3
Paper locks
4
Kalshi + PP
Real Money YTD
-$10.00
paper-gate restored
Qualifying skipped
16
filtered out today
Last refresh
17:41
2026-05-21 UTC
🏆 Best Bet (main-draw)
No main-draw Kalshi pick survived qualifying filter today.
🎯 Safest (P ≥ 65%)
Anhelina Kalinina
Anhelina Kalinina vs Diane Parry · Round 1 clay · LOW
71%
Heavy main-draw favorite · PAPER
Edge -8.4pp
Ask 79¢
💎 Biggest Payout (ELITE)
No ELITE main-draw longshot today.
#MatchTournamentRoundSurfaceStartELO AELO BELO diffKalshi event
1Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Camilo Ugo CarabelliBitpanda Hamburg OpenQuarterfinalclayMay 21 15:1514471721-274KXATPMATCH-26MAY21KOVUGO
2Jil Teichmann vs Yasmine KabbajGrand Prix Son Altesse Royale La Princesse Lalla MeryemQuarterfinalclayMay 21 15:5016451616+29KXWTAMATCH-26MAY21TEIKAB
3Alex Michelsen vs Learner TienGonet Geneva OpenQuarterfinalclayMay 21 16:0514881466+23KXATPMATCH-26MAY21MICTIE
4Victoria Mboko vs Leylah FernandezInternationaux de Strasbourg presented by MammotionQuarterfinalclayMay 21 16:2017041590+113KXWTAMATCH-26MAY21MBOFER
5Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander BublikGonet Geneva OpenQuarterfinalclayMay 21 18:0015661724-159KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY21RINBUB-1
6Luciano Darderi vs Alex De MinaurBitpanda Hamburg OpenQuarterfinalclayMay 21 18:0017671652+115KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY21DARDE-1
#MatchOur pickOur PMkt PAskEdgeTierDecisionVol 24hSurfaceRoundEV/$
1Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Camila OsorioCamila Osorio52.4%90.0%90¢-37.6ppLOWPAPER0clayRound 1-0.376
2Emma Navarro vs Janice TjenJanice Tjen52.1%88.0%88¢-35.9ppLOWPAPER6clayRound 1-0.359
3Victoria Mboko vs Leylah FernandezLeylah Fernandez40.9%7.0%+33.9ppLOWPAPER603890clayQuarterfinal+0.339
4Madison Keys vs Hanne VandewinkelMadison Keys57.9%91.0%91¢-33.1ppLOWPAPER80clayRound 1-0.331
5Tatjana Maria vs Elise MertensElise Mertens57.6%90.0%90¢-32.4ppLOWPAPER1clayRound 1-0.324
6Naomi Osaka vs Laura SiegemundNaomi Osaka57.7%88.0%88¢-30.3ppLOWPAPER13clayRound 1-0.303
7Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Marina Bassols Ribera QualMarina Bassols Ribera54.6%26.0%26¢+28.6ppLOWPAPER158clayQualifying Final+0.286
8Yulia Putintseva vs Talia GibsonYulia Putintseva58.8%87.0%87¢-28.2ppLOWPAPER3clayRound 1-0.282
9Tommy Paul vs Rinky HijikataRinky Hijikata45.3%19.0%19¢+26.3ppLOWPAPER464hardRound Of 128+0.263
10Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Bouzas ManeiroJessica Bouzas Maneiro37.6%12.0%12¢+25.6ppLOWPAPER1055clayRound 1+0.256
11Rebecca Sramkova vs Maria Carle QualMaria Carle53.9%29.0%29¢+24.9ppLOWPAPER16clayQualifying Final+0.249
12Alexander Zverev vs Benjamin BonziBenjamin Bonzi34.7%10.0%10¢+24.7ppLOWPAPER182hardRound Of 128+0.247
13Jessica Pegula vs Kimberly BirrellKimberly Birrell33.2%9.0%+24.2ppLOWPAPER495clayRound 1+0.242
14Adrian Mannarino vs Ugo HumbertAdrian Mannarino45.6%22.0%22¢+23.6ppLOWPAPER51clayRound 1+0.236
15Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Aleksandar KovacevicCamilo Ugo Carabelli70.1%47.0%47¢+23.1ppLOWPAPER2011198clayQuarterfinal+0.231
16Terence Atmane vs Thanasi KokkinakisThanasi Kokkinakis50.8%28.0%28¢+22.8ppLOWPAPER18hardRound Of 128+0.228
17James Duckworth vs Gabriel DialloJames Duckworth59.7%37.0%37¢+22.7ppLOWPAPER78clayRound 1+0.227
18Titouan Droguet vs Jakub MensikJakub Mensik58.7%81.0%81¢-22.3ppLOWPAPER0hardRound Of 128-0.223
19Emilio Nava vs Pedro Martinez QualPedro Martinez51.1%29.0%29¢+22.1ppLOWPAPER4045hardQualification Final+0.221
20Katerina Siniakova vs Simona WaltertSimona Waltert66.5%88.0%88¢-21.5ppLOWPAPER0clayRound 1-0.215
21Karen Khachanov vs Arthur GeaArthur Gea49.0%28.0%28¢+21.0ppLOWPAPER95hardRound Of 128+0.210
22Katie Boulter vs Akasha UrhoboAkasha Urhobo67.2%88.0%88¢-20.8ppLOWPAPER0clayRound 1-0.208
23Amanda Anisimova vs Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga RajaonahTiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah38.1%18.0%18¢+20.1ppLOWPAPER309clayRound 1+0.201
24Roman Safiullin vs Tom Gentzsch QualTom Gentzsch45.0%25.0%25¢+20.0ppLOWPAPER2452clayQualifying Final+0.200
25Arthur Fils vs Stan WawrinkaStan Wawrinka34.4%15.0%15¢+19.4ppLOWPAPER197hardRound Of 128+0.194
26Alice Tubello vs Donna VekicAlice Tubello63.0%82.0%82¢-18.9ppLOWPAPER0clayRound 1-0.190
27Taylor Fritz vs Nishesh BasavareddyNishesh Basavareddy50.7%32.0%32¢+18.7ppLOWPAPER332clayRound 1+0.187
28Novak Djokovic vs Giovanni Mpetshi PerricardGiovanni Mpetshi Perricard32.6%14.0%14¢+18.6ppLOWPAPER919hardRound Of 128+0.186
29Leandro Riedi vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert QualPierre-Hugues Herbert45.0%27.0%27¢+18.0ppLOWPAPER1164hardQualification Final+0.180
30Yasmine Kabbaj vs Jil TeichmannYasmine Kabbaj52.0%34.0%34¢+18.0ppLOWPAPER379971clayQuarterfinal+0.180
31Anna Kalinskaya vs Lois BoissonLois Boisson62.6%45.0%45¢+17.6ppLOWPAPER4clayRound 1+0.176
32Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Rafael JodarAleksandar Kovacevic30.4%13.0%13¢+17.4ppLOWPAPER559clayRound 1+0.174
33Panna Udvardy vs Anhelina KalininaPanna Udvardy46.5%30.0%30¢+16.5ppLOWPAPER9claySemifinal+0.165
34Mattia Bellucci vs Quentin HalysMattia Bellucci49.7%66.0%66¢-16.3ppLOWPAPER0hardRound Of 128-0.163
35Damir Dzumhur vs Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDamir Dzumhur35.2%19.0%19¢+16.2ppLOWPAPER51hardRound Of 128+0.162
36Alex Michelsen vs Learner TienAlex Michelsen58.8%43.0%43¢+15.8ppLOWPAPER649575clayQuarterfinal+0.158
37Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Vilius Gaubas QualVilius Gaubas50.4%35.0%35¢+15.4ppLOWPAPER6963hardQualification Final+0.154
38Felix Gill vs Kyrian Jacquet QualFelix Gill53.1%39.0%39¢+14.1ppLOWPAPER5001clayQualifying Final+0.141
39Lucia Bronzetti vs Katarina Zavatska QualKatarina Zavatska55.0%41.0%41¢+14.0ppLOWPAPER89clayQualifying Final+0.140
40Alexander Shevchenko vs Alex MichelsenAlexander Shevchenko59.6%46.0%46¢+13.6ppLOWPAPER50clayRound 1+0.136
41Maya Joint vs Anastasia PotapovaMaya Joint49.9%37.0%37¢+12.9ppLOWPAPER0clayRound 1+0.129
42Harmony Tan vs Linda Fruhvirtova QualHarmony Tan50.3%38.0%38¢+12.3ppLOWPAPER560clayQualifying Final+0.123
43Jenson Brooksby vs Mariano NavoneJenson Brooksby34.2%22.0%22¢+12.2ppLOWPAPER64clayRound 1+0.122
44Coco Gauff vs Taylor TownsendTaylor Townsend29.8%18.0%18¢+11.8ppLOWPAPER178clayRound 1+0.118
45Ann Li vs Shuai ZhangShuai Zhang58.5%47.0%47¢+11.5ppLOWPAPER0hardRound Of 128+0.115
46Alex de Minaur vs Luciano DarderiAlex de Minaur64.4%53.0%53¢+11.4ppLOWPAPER141628hardQuarterfinal+0.114
47Darwin Blanch vs Luka Pavlovic QualLuka Pavlovic47.6%37.0%37¢+10.6ppLOWPAPER1076hardQualification Final+0.106
48Casper Ruud vs Mariano NavoneMariano Navone37.4%27.0%27¢+10.4ppLOWPAPER1099hardSemifinal+0.104
49Zeynep Sonmez vs Daria KasatkinaZeynep Sonmez45.2%35.0%35¢+10.2ppLOWPAPER33clayRound 1+0.102
50Borna Gojo vs Jurij Rodionov QualBorna Gojo55.0%45.0%45¢+10.0ppLOWPAPER1751hardQualification Final+0.100
51Anhelina Kalinina vs Diane ParryAnhelina Kalinina70.6%79.0%79¢-8.4ppLOWPAPER0clayRound 1-0.084
52Hugo Dellien vs Roberto Carballes Baena QualRoberto Carballes Baena45.0%37.0%37¢+8.0ppLOWPAPER2362clayQualifying Final+0.080
53Guiomar Maristany Zuleta de Reales vs Kaitlin Quevedo QualGuiomar Maristany Zuleta de Reales53.2%47.0%47¢+6.2ppLOWPAPER1154clayQualifying Final+0.062
54Pablo Carreno Busta vs Jiri LeheckaPablo Carreno Busta43.1%37.0%37¢+6.1ppLOWPAPER0hardRound Of 128+0.061
55Alexander Bublik vs Arthur RinderknechArthur Rinderknech44.9%39.0%39¢+5.9ppLOWPAPER45619hardQuarterfinal+0.059
56Andrey Rublev vs Ignacio BuseIgnacio Buse41.3%37.0%37¢+4.3ppLOWPAPER976hardRound Of 128+0.043
57Yannick Hanfmann vs Hamad MedjedovicYannick Hanfmann53.1%49.0%49¢+4.1ppLOWPAPER0hardRound Of 128+0.041
58Nuno Borges vs Tomas Martin EtcheverryNuno Borges43.1%47.0%47¢-3.9ppLOWPAPER0hardRound Of 128-0.039
59Emma Navarro vs Ann LiEmma Navarro45.3%49.0%49¢-3.7ppLOWSKIP146claySemifinal-0.037
60Zizou Bergs vs Tomas MachacZizou Bergs50.6%47.0%47¢+3.6ppLOWPAPER0hardRound Of 128+0.036
61Lulu Sun vs Claire Liu QualLulu Sun41.6%38.0%38¢+3.6ppLOWPAPER516clayQualifying Final+0.036
62Diana Shnaider vs Renata ZarazuaRenata Zarazua51.0%48.0%48¢+3.0ppLOWPAPER0clayRound 1+0.030
63Susan Bandecchi vs Viktoria Hruncakova QualViktoria Hruncakova45.0%43.0%43¢+2.0ppLOWSKIP192clayQualifying Final+0.020
64Maria Sakkari vs Linda NoskovaMaria Sakkari44.0%46.0%46¢-2.0ppLOWSKIP5clayRound 1-0.020
65Victoria Mboko vs Nikola BartunkovaNikola Bartunkova50.2%49.0%49¢+1.2ppLOWSKIP6clayRound 1+0.012
66Xiyu Wang vs Polina Kudermetova QualPolina Kudermetova45.0%44.0%44¢+1.0ppLOWSKIP190hardQualification Final+0.010
67Miomir Kecmanovic vs Fabian MarozsanFabian Marozsan59.9%59.0%59¢+0.9ppLOWSKIP0clayRound 1+0.009
68Alexandra Eala vs Iva JovicAlexandra Eala36.4%37.0%37¢-0.6ppLOWSKIP1clayRound 1-0.006
#PlayerStatPP lineOur projEdge %SideTierOppSurfaceDemonPayout
1Luciano Darderi🟨 WARMAces2.56.36+154.4%MORELOWAlex de Minaurclay0.5x
2Alexander Bublik🧊 COLDTotal Tie Breaks0.50.12+75.4%LESSLOWArthur Rinderknechclay1.0x
3Alexander Bublik🧊 COLDTotal Tie Breaks0.50.12+75.3%LESSLOWJan-Lennard Struffclay1.0x
4Matteo BerrettiniTotal Tie Breaks0.50.25+50.7%LESSLOWMarton Fucsovicsclay1.0x
5Hubert Hurkacz🟨 WARMTotal Tie Breaks0.50.25+50.6%LESSLOWJaume Munarclay1.0x
6Jakub Mensik🟨 WARMTotal Tie Breaks0.50.25+50.5%LESSLOWTitouan Droguetclay1.0x
7Cameron Norrie🟨 WARMTotal Tie Breaks0.50.25+50.4%LESSLOWAdolfo Daniel Vallejoclay1.0x
8Marcos GironTotal Games39.524.59+37.7%LESSLOWYibing Wuclay1.0x
9Miomir Kecmanovic🧊 COLDTotal Games39.525.03+36.6%LESSLOWFabian Marozsanclay0.5x
10Hubert Hurkacz🟨 WARMTotal Games38.524.59+36.1%LESSLOWJaume Munarclay0.5x
11Quentin Halys🧊 COLDTotal Games39.525.34+35.9%LESSLOWMattia Bellucciclay0.5x
12Raphael Collignon⏳ RTRNTotal Games34.522.18+35.7%LESSLOWAleksandar Vukicclay0.5x
13Jakub Mensik🟨 WARMTotal Games38.524.82+35.5%LESSLOWTitouan Droguetclay0.5x
14Cameron Norrie🟨 WARMTotal Games38.524.88+35.4%LESSLOWAdolfo Daniel Vallejoclay0.5x
15Sebastian BaezTotal Games37.524.29+35.2%LESSLOWRoman Andres Burruchagaclay0.5x
16Francisco Comesana🧊 COLDTotal Games38.525.14+34.7%LESSLOWEthan Quinnclay0.5x
17Patrick Kypson🧊 COLDTotal Games38.525.15+34.7%LESSLOWLuca Van Asscheclay0.5x
18Andrey Rublev🟨 WARMTotal Games38.525.17+34.6%LESSLOWIgnacio Buseclay0.5x
19Hamad Medjedovic⏳ RTRNTotal Games38.525.20+34.6%LESSLOWYannick Hanfmannclay0.5x
20Alexander Bublik🧊 COLDTotal Games37.524.54+34.6%LESSLOWJan-Lennard Struffclay0.5x
21Felix Auger-Aliassime🟨 WARMTotal Games38.525.20+34.5%LESSLOWDaniel Altmaierclay0.5x
22Tallon Griekspoor🧊 COLDTotal Games38.525.22+34.5%LESSLOWMatteo Arnaldiclay0.5x
23Matteo BerrettiniTotal Games37.524.60+34.4%LESSLOWMarton Fucsovicsclay0.5x
24Hugo GastonTotal Games38.525.34+34.2%LESSLOWGael Monfilsclay0.5x
25Gabriel Diallo🧊 COLDTotal Games37.525.07+33.1%LESSLOWJames Duckworthclay0.5x
26Corentin MoutetTotal Games37.525.09+33.1%LESSLOWVit Koprivaclay1.0x
27Luciano Darderi🟨 WARMTotal Games36.524.50+32.9%LESSLOWSebastian Ofnerclay0.5x
28Karen Khachanov🧊 COLDTotal Games37.525.21+32.8%LESSLOWArthur Geaclay0.5x
29Tomas MachacTotal Games37.525.23+32.7%LESSLOWZizou Bergsclay0.5x
30Raphael Collignon⏳ RTRNTotal Sets3.52.38+31.9%LESSLOWAleksandar Vukicclay1.0x
31Juan Manuel Cerundolo🟨 WARMTotal Games36.524.91+31.8%LESSLOWJacob Fearnleyclay0.5x
32Alexei PopyrinTotal Games36.525.05+31.4%LESSLOWZachary Svajdaclay0.5x
33Stefanos TsitsipasTotal Games36.525.17+31.1%LESSLOWAlexandre Mullerclay0.5x
34Brandon NakashimaTotal Games36.525.17+31.0%LESSLOWRoberto Bautista Agutclay0.5x
35Taylor Fritz⏳ RTRNTotal Games36.525.18+31.0%LESSLOWNishesh Basavareddyclay0.5x
36Novak Djokovic⏳ RTRNTotal Games35.524.51+31.0%LESSLOWGiovanni Mpetshi Perricardclay0.5x
37Alejandro Tabilo🟨 WARMTotal Games36.525.20+31.0%LESSLOWKamil Majchrzakclay0.5x
38Novak Djokovic⏳ RTRNTotal Sets3.52.46+29.6%LESSLOWGiovanni Mpetshi Perricardclay1.0x
39Francisco Cerundolo🟨 WARMTotal Sets3.52.49+29.0%LESSLOWBotic Van de Zandschulpclay1.0x
40Jessica Pegula🟨 WARMTotal Games17.522.57+29.0%MORELOWKimberly Birrellclay0.5x
41Frances Tiafoe⏳ RTRNTotal Sets3.52.50+28.7%LESSLOWEliot Spizzirriclay1.0x
42Arthur Fils🟨 WARMTotal Games31.522.79+27.7%LESSLOWStan Wawrinkaclay0.5x
43Mariano Navone🟨 WARMTotal Games33.524.26+27.6%LESSLOWJenson Brooksbyclay0.5x
44Francisco Cerundolo🟨 WARMTotal Games34.525.06+27.4%LESSLOWBotic Van de Zandschulpclay0.5x
45Alejandro Davidovich FokinaTotal Games34.525.18+27.0%LESSLOWDamir Dzumhurclay0.5x
46Arthur RinderknechAces8.56.23+26.6%LESSLOWAlexander Bublikclay0.5x
47Rafael Jodar🟨 WARMTotal Games31.523.22+26.3%LESSLOWAleksandar Kovacevicclay0.5x
48Francisco Comesana🧊 COLDTotal Tie Breaks0.50.37+25.5%LESSLOWEthan Quinnclay1.0x
49Anhelina Kalinina🟨 WARMTotal Games19.524.44+25.3%MORELOWPanna Udvardyclay0.5x
50Brandon NakashimaTotal Tie Breaks0.50.37+25.3%LESSLOWRoberto Bautista Agutclay1.0x
51Tallon Griekspoor🧊 COLDTotal Tie Breaks0.50.37+25.1%LESSLOWMatteo Arnaldiclay1.0x
52Felix Auger-Aliassime🟨 WARMTotal Tie Breaks0.50.37+25.1%LESSLOWDaniel Altmaierclay1.0x
53Alejandro Tabilo🟨 WARMTotal Tie Breaks0.50.37+25.1%LESSLOWKamil Majchrzakclay1.0x
54Leylah Fernandez🟨 WARMTotal Games19.524.38+25.0%MORELOWAlycia Parksclay0.5x
55Karen Khachanov🧊 COLDTotal Tie Breaks0.50.38+24.9%LESSLOWArthur Geaclay1.0x
56Hugo GastonTotal Tie Breaks0.50.38+24.7%LESSLOWGael Monfilsclay1.0x
57Ann LiTotal Games19.524.28+24.5%MORELOWEmma Navarroclay0.5x
58Arthur RinderknechTotal Games Won12.59.50+24.0%LESSLOWAlexander Bublikclay0.5x
59Frances Tiafoe⏳ RTRNTotal Games32.525.11+22.7%LESSLOWEliot Spizzirriclay0.5x
60Alex de MinaurTotal Games Won12.59.76+21.9%LESSLOWLuciano Dardericlay0.5x
61Alexander Zverev🟨 WARMTotal Games28.522.64+20.6%LESSLOWBenjamin Bonziclay0.5x
62Tommy Paul🟨 WARMTotal Games28.522.83+19.9%LESSLOWRinky Hijikataclay0.5x
63Rebecca SramkovaTotal Games20.524.57+19.9%MORELOWMaria Carleclay0.5x
64Aliaksandra SasnovichTotal Games20.524.34+18.7%MORELOWMarina Bassols Riberaclay0.5x
65Jaqueline CristianTotal Games20.524.15+17.8%MORELOWKamilla Rakhimovaclay1.0x
66Roman Safiullin🟨 WARMTotal Games21.525.19+17.1%MORELOWTom Gentzschclay0.5x
67Pablo Llamas Ruiz🟨 WARMTotal Games21.525.18+17.1%MORELOWVilius Gaubasclay0.5x
68Casper Ruud🟨 WARMTotal Games21.525.17+17.1%MORELOWMariano Navoneclay0.5x
69Leandro Riedi🟨 WARMTotal Games21.525.16+17.0%MORELOWPierre-Hugues Herbertclay0.5x
70Daniil MedvedevTotal Games29.524.48+17.0%LESSLOWAdam Waltonclay0.5x
71Borna Gojo🟨 WARMTotal Games Won12.510.38+17.0%LESSLOWJurij Rodionovclay1.0x
72Karolina Muchova⏳ RTRNTotal Games20.523.90+16.6%MORELOWAnastasia Zakharovaclay0.5x
73Katie VolynetsTotal Games20.523.86+16.4%MORELOWClara Burelclay1.0x
74Vilius GaubasTotal Games Won12.010.06+16.1%LESSLOWPablo Llamas Ruizclay1.0x
75Emilio NavaTotal Games21.524.94+16.0%MORELOWPedro Martinezclay0.5x
76Jurij Rodionov🟨 WARMTotal Games Won12.510.54+15.6%LESSLOWBorna Gojoclay1.0x
77Marina Bassols Ribera🟨 WARMTotal Games Won9.510.91+14.8%MORELOWAliaksandra Sasnovichclay1.0x
78Aliaksandra SasnovichBreak Points Won5.54.73+14.0%LESSLOWMarina Bassols Riberaclay1.0x
79Hugo Dellien⏳ RTRNTotal Games21.524.49+13.9%MORELOWRoberto Carballes Baenaclay0.5x
80Linda Fruhvirtova🧊 COLDTotal Games21.524.49+13.9%MORELOWHarmony Tanclay0.5x
81Liudmila SamsonovaTotal Games21.524.42+13.6%MORELOWJil Teichmannclay1.0x
82Claire Liu🟨 WARMTotal Games21.524.30+13.0%MORELOWLulu Sunclay0.5x
83Roberto Carballes Baena⏳ RTRNTotal Games Won11.510.05+12.6%LESSLOWHugo Dellienclay1.0x
84Roman Safiullin🟨 WARMTotal Games Won12.510.95+12.4%LESSLOWTom Gentzschclay1.0x
85Kyrian Jacquet⏳ RTRNTotal Games22.525.17+11.9%MORELOWFelix Gillclay0.5x
86Darwin Blanch🟨 WARMTotal Games22.525.17+11.9%MORELOWLuka Pavlovicclay0.5x
87Susan Bandecchi🟨 WARMTotal Games21.524.03+11.8%MORELOWViktoria Hruncakovaclay0.5x
88Luciano Darderi🟨 WARMTotal Games Won12.511.27+9.9%LESSLOWAlex de Minaurclay0.5x
89Linda Noskova🟨 WARMTotal Games22.524.52+9.0%MORELOWMaria Sakkariclay0.5x
90Jannik Sinner🟨 WARMTotal Games25.523.24+8.9%LESSLOWClement Taburclay0.5x
91Alexander Bublik🧊 COLDAces6.55.95+8.4%LESSLOWArthur Rinderknechclay0.5x
92Lucia BronzettiTotal Games21.523.08+7.4%MORELOWKatarina Zavatskaclay0.5x
93Borna Gojo🟨 WARMTotal Games23.525.12+6.9%MORELOWJurij Rodionovclay0.5x
94Tom Gentzsch🟨 WARMTotal Games Won9.510.05+5.8%MORELOWRoman Safiullinclay1.0x
95Eva Lys🧊 COLDTotal Games22.523.77+5.7%MORELOWPetra Marcinkoclay0.5x
96Alexander Bublik🧊 COLDTotal Games23.524.49+4.2%MORELOWArthur Rinderknechclay0.5x
97Barbora Krejcikova⏳ RTRNTotal Games22.523.25+3.4%MORELOWHailey Baptisteclay1.0x
98Solana Sierra🟨 WARMTotal Games22.522.69+0.9%MORELOWEmma Raducanuclay0.5x
Kalshi tennis — 2 picks · $4.00 staked
Day 1 - paper only, grade EOD before scaling · locked 2026-05-21T13:10:45.965796+00:00
#MatchPickOur PAskEdgeTierSurfaceStakeStatusP&L
1Coleman Wong vs Juan Carlos Prado AngeloColeman Wong45.0%22¢23.0ppELITEclay$2.00OPEN-2.00
2Leandro Riedi vs Pierre-Hugues HerbertPierre-Hugues Herbert45.0%27¢18.0ppELITEhard$2.00OPEN+0.00
PrizePicks tennis — 2 picks · $2.00 staked
Day 1 - paper only, grade EOD before scaling · locked 2026-05-21T13:10:45.902879+00:00
#PlayerStatLineOur projSideEdgeTierSurfaceStakeStatusP&L
1Leandro RiediTotal Games21.525.16MORE17.0%ELITEclay$1.00OPEN+0.00
2Shuai ZhangTotal Games Won10.010.72MORE7.2%MEDclay$1.00OPEN+0.00
Polymarket = retail/crypto sentiment. We can't bet there from CA, but the divergence vs Kalshi (sharp) reveals where the public is loading up. Generated 2026-05-21T10:41:31 · flagged threshold = ±3.0pp · 1 flagged futures / 0 flagged matches.

Grand-slam futures · ANY 2026 Slam (Kalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM vs Polymarket per-slam aggregate)

Polymarket "any-slam" probability computed naively as 1 - product(1 - p_slam). Positive divergence = public (Polymarket) more bullish than sharp (Kalshi). Sorted by |divergence|.
PlayerSharp (Kalshi)Public (Poly)ΔPoly per-slam
Novak Djokovic · exact11.5%18.3%+6.8pp · PUBLIC HIGHERFre 6%, Wim 10%, US 4%
Lorenzo Musetti · exact4.5%1.6%-2.9pp · SHARP HIGHERFre 0%, Wim 1%, US 1%
Ben Shelton · exact4.5%7.2%+2.7pp · PUBLIC HIGHERFre 1%, Wim 3%, US 4%
Daniil Medvedev · exact8.0%5.8%-2.2pp · SHARP HIGHERFre 2%, Wim 2%, US 2%
Alexander Zverev · exact12.5%14.4%+1.9pp · PUBLIC HIGHERFre 7%, Wim 4%, US 4%
Alex de Minaur · exact3.0%1.4%-1.6pp · SHARP HIGHERFre 1%, Wim 1%
Felix Auger-Aliassime · exact2.0%0.5%-1.5pp · SHARP HIGHERWim 1%
Karen Khachanov · exact2.0%0.7%-1.3pp · SHARP HIGHERFre 0%, Wim 1%
Alexander Bublik · exact3.0%1.9%-1.1pp · SHARP HIGHERFre 0%, Wim 0%, US 1%
Jack Draper · exact4.5%5.5%+1.0pp · PUBLIC HIGHERFre 0%, Wim 3%, US 3%
Frances Tiafoe · exact0.5%1.3%+0.8pp · PUBLIC HIGHERFre 0%, Wim 0%, US 1%
Jannik Sinner · exact94.5%95.2%+0.7pp · PUBLIC HIGHERFre 70%, Wim 66%, US 52%
Taylor Fritz · exact4.5%4.9%+0.4pp · PUBLIC HIGHERFre 1%, Wim 3%, US 2%
Casper Ruud · exact3.5%3.4%-0.1pp · SHARP HIGHERFre 3%, Wim 0%

Per-match overlaps

No active per-match overlaps right now (Polymarket tennis volume concentrates in Grand Slam futures).
!
Calibration provisional. Only 17 graded picks; verdicts not actionable until 50+.
Per-stat-type MAE (n_graded=17)
Bar width = MAE (lower = better). "INSUFFICIENT" = need more graded picks.
Total Games
n=4
Ours
PP
Us 6.45
PP 3.25
INSUFFICIENT_N
Total Games Won
n=12
Ours
PP
Us 4.93
PP 4.50
NULL
Total Tie Breaks
n=1
Ours
PP
Us 0.25
PP 0.50
INSUFFICIENT_N
Per-tier MAE
Bar width = MAE (lower = better). "INSUFFICIENT" = need more graded picks.
ELITE
n=16
Ours
PP
Us 4.94
PP 3.75
NULL
MED
n=0
Ours
PP
Us —
PP —
INSUFFICIENT_N
STRONG
n=1
Ours
PP
Us 6.23
PP 7.50
INSUFFICIENT_N
[!]
No AAR available yet.
Expected: ~/.claude/projects/.../memory/aar_tennis_<date>.md
#PlayerStatOppOpenLatestDiffAbsDirection
1Brandon NakashimaTotal GamesRoberto Bautista Agut38.536.5-2.002.00DOWN
2Frances TiafoeTotal GamesEliot Spizzirri34.532.5-2.002.00DOWN
3Stefanos TsitsipasTotal GamesAlexandre Muller34.536.5+2.002.00UP
4Alexei PopyrinTotal GamesZachary Svajda34.536.5+2.002.00UP
5Felix Auger-AliassimeTotal GamesDaniel Altmaier36.538.5+2.002.00UP
6Kyrian JacquetTotal GamesFelix Gill23.522.5-1.001.00DOWN
7Novak DjokovicTotal GamesGiovanni Mpetshi Perricard36.535.5-1.001.00DOWN
8Hamad MedjedovicTotal GamesYannick Hanfmann37.538.5+1.001.00UP
9Juan Manuel CerundoloTotal GamesJacob Fearnley37.536.5-1.001.00DOWN
10Tallon GriekspoorTotal GamesMatteo Arnaldi39.538.5-1.001.00DOWN
11Hubert HurkaczTotal GamesJaume Munar37.538.5+1.001.00UP
12Patrick KypsonTotal GamesLuca Van Assche39.538.5-1.001.00DOWN
13Alexander BublikTotal GamesJan-Lennard Struff36.537.5+1.001.00UP
14Victoria MbokoFantasy ScoreLeylah Fernandez16.517.0+0.500.50UP
15Kyrian JacquetFantasy ScoreFelix Gill12.012.5+0.500.50UP
ATP top 50
RkPlayerCountryPtsELO overallELO clayELO grassELO hard
1Jannik SinnerITA143502175185716952062
2Carlos AlcarazESP129602070186717171956
3Alexander ZverevGER58051961181615941863
4Novak DjokovicSRB47001955173816361846
5Felix Auger AliassimeCAN40501864160515171803
6Ben SheltonUSA40301848168315611765
7Taylor FritzUSA37701826158117221749
8Alex De MinaurAUS37551847165215901806
9Daniil MedvedevRUS34601878164115851845
10Lorenzo MusettiITA34151828175616071723
11Alexander BublikKAZ33551803172415691703
12Flavio CobolliITA27501796172015571655
13Jiri LeheckaCZE27151837164715741754
14Andrey RublevRUS25901762165815161683
15Karen KhachanovRUS22201691158615671639
16Valentin VacherotMON21471810170214671738
17Arthur FilsFRA21301912176215461771
18Tommy PaulUSA19751842174815871743
19Cameron NorrieGBR19181776165815291682
20Luciano DarderiITA18901714176714661466
21Learner TienUSA18701800146615061789
22Frances TiafoeUSA18651771160414881719
23Alejandro Davidovich FokinaESP18201756157215451703
24Arthur RinderknechFRA17361713156615301631
25Casper RuudNOR17351792174415021685
26Tomas Martin EtcheverryARG16601785169314561636
27Francisco CerundoloARG16201801172614261698
28Jakub MensikCZE16001795158914971747
29Joao FonsecaBRA14351818163814951795
30Corentin MoutetFRA14131706160015741640
31Tallon GriekspoorNED13601681157515641645
32Brandon NakashimaUSA12951706157015901660
33Ugo HumbertFRA12801712145115171697
34Rafael JodarESP1273187417141765
35Alejandro TabiloCHI12481786169615751637
36Alexander BlockxBEL12001820168915081713
37Denis ShapovalovCAN11701690149814721698
38Jaume MunarESP11551695156315081635
39Zizou BergsBEL11401705157015211631
40Holger RuneDEN11101744166315151710
41Tomas MachacCZE11001737159215001682
42Alex MichelsenUSA10901715148815381702
43Sebastian KordaUSA10501806153715561757
44Mariano NavoneARG10461718171614601507
45Adrian MannarinoFRA10351589139015841569
46Gabriel DialloCAN10001651155415761615
47Marin CilicCRO9801710153916111635
48Ethan QuinnUSA9771731159415091683
49Fabian MarozsanHUN9751672156614501608
50Jack DraperGBR9601806163415941750
WTA top 50
RkPlayerCountryPtsELO overallELO clayELO grassELO hard
1Aryna SabalenkaBLR101102115180815882045
2Elena RybakinaKAZ85552063176015801972
3Iga SwiatekPOL69481924178016581852
4Coco GauffUSA67491957178715191871
5Jessica PegulaUSA61361997170115831901
6Amanda AnisimovaUSA59851916156116381822
7Mirra AndreevaRUS41811932180015131797
8Jasmine PaoliniITA37221815170715851741
9Victoria MbokoCAN35311936170415151891
10Elina SvitolinaUKR35301922172715501824
11Karolina MuchovaCZE33181951159714941869
12Belinda BencicSUI30901898158415611831
13Linda NoskovaCZE29991881158915831763
14Ekaterina AlexandrovaRUS26691747159315841662
15Marta KostyukUKR25071924175714491755
16Naomi OsakaJPN23411819162815141734
17Iva JovicUSA22351829166316011759
18Clara TausonDEN20301746156015201679
19Madison KeysUSA19461836170615581766
20Diana ShnaiderRUS19461782164715651686
21Liudmila SamsonovaRUS18951697160416191566
22Elise MertensBEL18581802158015811714
23Leylah FernandezCAN18511790159015461679
24Anna KalinskayaRUS17581784153815461721
25Hailey BaptisteUSA17471785166214881667
26Marie BouzkovaCZE16511773169914761648
27Sorana CirsteaROU15951866161214291797
28Jaqueline CristianROU14371770163514321698
29Ann LiUSA14351745163814781647
30Emma RaducanuGBR14301753157015771658
31Cristina BucsaESP14061738147515141684
32Qinwen ZhengCHN14051819173714971737
33Xin Yu WangCHN14011735154615911616
34Maya JointAUS13801711168815791641
35Emma NavarroUSA13771680157815901613
36Jelena OstapenkoLAT13691723163215341621
37Sara BejlekCZE13601832179714861653
38Anastasia PotapovaRUS13551787169014841640
39Katerina SiniakovaCZE13421777154915781693
40Janice TjenINA1317181716621785
41Elisabetta CocciarettoITA12901800158415771689
42Alexandra EalaPHI12851786147816001748
43Lois BoissonFRA12681791181114831554
44Marketa VondrousovaCZE12631728160615781609
45Magdalena FrechPOL12631649153414341613
46Laura SiegemundGER12501680153515411592
47Maria SakkariGRE12381707156314861658
48Tereza ValentovaCZE12311845174615171788
49Peyton StearnsUSA12111710163614711621
50Mccartney KesslerUSA12041754151615831688
SourceDB / fileLast pulledAgeRowsStatus
Kalshi KXATPMATCHtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-05-21T17:39:14.932928+00:002m1836fresh
Kalshi KXWTAMATCHtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-05-21T17:39:14.932928+00:002m1736fresh
Kalshi KXFRENCHOPENtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-05-21T17:39:14.932928+00:002m0fresh
Kalshi KXFOPENMENSINGLEtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-05-21T17:39:14.932928+00:002m0fresh
Kalshi KXATPGRANDSLAMtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-05-21T17:39:14.932928+00:002m14fresh
Kalshi KXUSOPENtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-05-21T17:39:14.932928+00:002m0fresh
Kalshi KXATPSETWINNERtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-05-21T17:39:14.932928+00:002m3650fresh
Kalshi KXATPTOTALSETStennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-05-21T17:39:14.932928+00:002m0fresh
Kalshi KXATPSETSWEEPtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-05-21T17:39:14.932928+00:002m0fresh
Kalshi KXATPGAMESPREADtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-05-21T17:39:14.932928+00:002m0fresh
Kalshi KXATPEXACTMATCHtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-05-21T17:39:14.932928+00:002m1190fresh
Kalshi KXWTADOUBLEStennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-05-21T17:39:14.932928+00:002m0fresh
Kalshi KXATP1RANKtennis_kalshi.sqlite2026-05-21T17:39:14.932928+00:002m16fresh
elo last computedtennis.sqlite2026-05-21T17:39:11+00:002m20051fresh
rankings last pulledtennis.sqlite2026-05-21T17:39:14+00:002m3745fresh
rankings atp latest datetennis.sqlite2026-05-04425.69h&mdash;stale
rankings wta latest datetennis.sqlite2026-05-04425.69h&mdash;stale
mirror atp scheduletennis.sqlite2026-05-21T17:40:48.754624+00:000m299fresh
h2h last computedtennis.sqlite2026-05-17T10:11:57.514615+00:00103.49h&mdash;stale
h2h n pairstennis.sqlite190184missing&mdash;missing
last player db runtennis.sqlite1779385265missing&mdash;missing
results last_runtennis_results.sqlite[2026-05-21T17:40:51.025286+00:00] 2026-05-21T17:40:49.084825+00:00; dates=['20260520']; rows=556; resolved=538missing&mdash;missing
pp_edges CSVpp_edges_tennis_2026-05-21.csv2026-05-21T17:41:19.737844+00:000m&mdash;fresh
kalshi edges JSONtennis_kalshi_edges_2026-05-21.json2026-05-21T17:41:15.243663+00:000m&mdash;fresh
paper trades PPpaper_trades_pp_tennis_2026-05-21.json2026-05-21T17:41:21.530895+00:000m&mdash;fresh
paper trades Kalshipaper_trades_kalshi_tennis_2026-05-21.json2026-05-21T17:41:21.999775+00:000m&mdash;fresh
daily payloaddaily_tennis_2026-05-21.json2026-05-21T17:41:22.644175+00:000m&mdash;fresh
PP movementpp_line_movement_tennis_2026-05-21.csv2026-05-21T17:41:22.183298+00:000m&mdash;fresh
PP calibrationpp_calibration_tennis.json2026-05-21T17:41:22.117472+00:000m&mdash;fresh