Tennis EdgeBoard - 2026-05-28

Kalshi KXATPMATCH 2m · 1798rKalshi KXWTAMATCH 2m · 1666rKalshi KXFRENCHOPEN 2mKalshi KXFOPENMENSINGLE 2mKalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM 2m · 14rKalshi KXUSOPEN 2mKalshi KXATPSETWINNER 2m · 3698rKalshi KXATPTOTALSETS 2mKalshi KXATPSETSWEEP 2m · 1rKalshi KXATPGAMESPREAD 2mKalshi KXATPEXACTMATCH 2m · 1714rKalshi KXWTADOUBLES 2m · 94rKalshi KXATP1RANK 2m · 16relo last computed 2m · 20051rrankings last pulled 2m · 7538rrankings atp latest date 3drankings wta latest date 3dmirror atp schedule 0m · 92rh2h last computed 11dh2h n pairs missinglast player db run missingresults last_run missingpp_edges CSV 0mkalshi edges JSON 0mpaper trades PP 0mpaper trades Kalshi 0mdaily payload 0mPP movement 0mPP calibration 0m

Matches today

scheduled

ELITE edges

across Kalshi + PP

STRONG edges

tier 2

MED edges

tier 3

Paper locks

Kalshi + PP

Real Money YTD

-$10.00

paper-gate restored

Qualifying skipped

filtered out today

Last refresh

13:14

2026-05-28 UTC

🏆 Best Bet (main-draw)

No main-draw Kalshi pick survived qualifying filter today.

🎯 Safest (P ≥ 65%)

Julia Grabher

Amanda Anisimova vs Julia Grabher · Round 2 clay · LOW

64%

Heavy main-draw favorite · PAPER

Edge +47.7pp
Ask 16¢

💎 Biggest Payout (ELITE)

No ELITE main-draw longshot today.

#	Match	Tournament	Round	Surface	Start	ELO A	ELO B	ELO diff	Kalshi event
1	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo vs Moise Kouame	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 09:05	1766	1426	+340	KXATPMATCH-26MAY28VALKOU
2	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo vs Moise Kouame	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 09:05	1766	1426	+340	KXATPMATCH-26MAY28VALKOU
3	Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 10:05	1857	1693	+164	KXATPMATCH-26MAY28SINCER
4	Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 10:05	1857	1693	+164	KXATPMATCH-26MAY28SINCER
5	Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 10:55	1700	1604	+96	KXATPMATCH-26MAY27HURTIA
6	Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 10:55	1700	1604	+96	KXATPMATCH-26MAY27HURTIA
7	Francisco Cerundolo vs Hugo Gaston	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 11:20	1726	1501	+225	KXATPMATCH-26MAY27CERGAS
8	Francisco Cerundolo vs Hugo Gaston	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 11:20	1726	1501	+225	KXATPMATCH-26MAY27CERGAS
9	Diana Shnaider vs Mccartney Kessler	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 11:35	1647	1516	+131	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY27SHNKES
10	Diana Shnaider vs Mccartney Kessler	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 11:35	1647	1516	+131	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY27SHNKES
11	Maja Chwalinska vs Elise Mertens	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 12:00	1775	1580	+195	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY27CHWMER
12	Maja Chwalinska vs Elise Mertens	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 12:00	1775	1580	+195	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY27CHWMER
13	Yulia Putintseva vs Camila Osorio	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 12:15	1590	1618	-28	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY27PUTOSO
14	Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 12:15	1528	1681	-154	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY28LANKOP-3
15	Yulia Putintseva vs Camila Osorio	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 12:15	1590	1618	-28	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY27PUTOSO
16	Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 12:15	1528	1681	-154	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY28LANKOP-3
17	Maria Sakkari vs Claire Liu	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 13:20	1563	1564	-1	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY28SAKLIU
18	Daria Kasatkina vs Susan Bandecchi	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 13:20	1639	1569	+70	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY27KASBAN
19	Antonia Ruzic vs Madison Keys	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 13:20	1556	1706	-150	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY28RUZKEY
20	Anna Kalinskaya vs Alina Korneeva	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 13:20	1538	1466	+72	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY28KALKOR
21	Maria Sakkari vs Claire Liu	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 13:20	1563	1564	-1	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY28SAKLIU
22	Daria Kasatkina vs Susan Bandecchi	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 13:20	1639	1569	+70	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY27KASBAN
23	Antonia Ruzic vs Madison Keys	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 13:20	1556	1706	-150	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY28RUZKEY
24	Anna Kalinskaya vs Alina Korneeva	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 13:20	1538	1466	+72	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY28KALKOR
25	Julia Grabher vs Amanda Anisimova	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 13:30	1753	1561	+193	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY27GRAANI
26	Ann Li vs Diane Parry	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 13:30	1638	1490	+148	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY28ANNPAR
27	Julia Grabher vs Amanda Anisimova	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 13:30	1753	1561	+193	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY27GRAANI
28	Ann Li vs Diane Parry	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 13:30	1638	1490	+148	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY28ANNPAR
29	Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 14:00	1578	1767	-189	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY28COMDAR-1
30	? vs Roman Andres Burruchaga	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 14:00	—	1791	—	KXATPMATCH-26MAY28AUGBUR
31	Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 14:00	1579	1570	+9	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY27VANNAK-2
32	Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 14:00	1610	1685	-75	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY28ARNTSI-3
33	Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 14:00	1578	1767	-189	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY28COMDAR-1
34	? vs Roman Andres Burruchaga	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 14:00	—	1791	—	KXATPMATCH-26MAY28AUGBUR
35	Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 14:00	1579	1570	+9	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY27VANNAK-2
36	Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 14:00	1610	1685	-75	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY28ARNTSI-3
37	Coco Gauff vs Mayar Sherif	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 14:30	1787	1722	+65
38	Coco Gauff vs Mayar Sherif	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 14:30	1787	1722	+65
39	Aryna Sabalenka vs Elsa Jacquemot	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 15:00	1808	1552	+256	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY27SABJAC
40	Aryna Sabalenka vs Elsa Jacquemot	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 15:00	1808	1552	+256	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY27SABJAC
41	Katie Boulter vs Anastasia Potapova	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 15:30	1573	1690	-117	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY27BOUPOT
42	Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 15:30	1734	1683	+51	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY27COLSHE-3
43	Katie Boulter vs Anastasia Potapova	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 15:30	1573	1690	-117	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY27BOUPOT
44	Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 15:30	1734	1683	+51	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY27COLSHE-3
45	Victoria Mboko vs Katerina Siniakova	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 16:00	1704	1549	+155	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY28MBOSIN
46	Victoria Mboko vs Katerina Siniakova	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 16:00	1704	1549	+155	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY28MBOSIN
47	Arthur Rinderknech vs Matteo Berrettini	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 18:15	1566	1680	-114	KXATPMATCH-26MAY27RINBER
48	Arthur Rinderknech vs Matteo Berrettini	Roland Garros	Round 2	clay	May 28 18:15	1566	1680	-114	KXATPMATCH-26MAY27RINBER

#	Match	Our pick	Our P	Mkt P	Ask	Edge	Tier	Decision	Vol 24h	Surface	Round	EV/$
1	Amanda Anisimova vs Julia Grabher	Julia Grabher	63.7%	16.0%	16¢	+47.7pp	LOW	PAPER	67101	clay	Round 2	+0.477
2	Vit Kopriva vs Martin Landaluce	Martin Landaluce	55.4%	10.0%	10¢	+45.4pp	LOW	PAPER	197781	hard	Round Of 64	+0.454
3	Tamara Korpatsch vs Elina Svitolina	Tamara Korpatsch	48.4%	7.0%	7¢	+41.4pp	LOW	PAPER	1866	clay	Round 3	+0.414
4	Karolina Muchova vs Jil Teichmann	Jil Teichmann	49.4%	11.0%	11¢	+38.4pp	LOW	PAPER	808	clay	Round 3	+0.384
5	Sorana Cirstea vs Solana Sierra	Solana Sierra	63.4%	25.0%	25¢	+38.4pp	LOW	PAPER	1340	clay	Round 3	+0.384
6	Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga	Roman Andres Burruchaga	63.0%	28.0%	28¢	+35.0pp	LOW	PAPER	30647	clay	Round 2	+0.350
7	Daria Kasatkina vs Susan Bandecchi	Susan Bandecchi	45.2%	13.0%	13¢	+32.2pp	LOW	PAPER	6379	clay	Round 2	+0.322
8	Magda Linette vs Iga Swiatek	Magda Linette	36.3%	7.0%	7¢	+29.3pp	LOW	PAPER	10282	clay	Round 3	+0.293
9	Elsa Jacquemot vs Aryna Sabalenka	Elsa Jacquemot	30.3%	3.0%	3¢	+27.3pp	LOW	SKIP	28799	clay	Round 2	+0.273
10	Elise Mertens vs Maja Chwalinska	Elise Mertens	36.0%	9.0%	9¢	+27.0pp	LOW	PAPER	211691	clay	Round 2	+0.270
11	Luciano Darderi vs Francisco Comesana	Francisco Comesana	52.3%	26.0%	26¢	+26.3pp	LOW	PAPER	164012	hard	Round Of 64	+0.263
12	Moise Kouame vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	Moise Kouame	30.0%	5.0%	5¢	+25.0pp	LOW	PAPER	1343980	clay	Round 2	+0.250
13	Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar	Alex Michelsen	45.0%	20.0%	20¢	+25.0pp	LOW	PAPER	3984	hard	Round Of 32	+0.250
14	Alexander Zverev vs Quentin Halys	Quentin Halys	31.8%	7.0%	7¢	+24.8pp	LOW	PAPER	7441	hard	Round Of 32	+0.248
15	Marta Kostyuk vs Viktorija Golubic	Viktorija Golubic	33.4%	9.0%	9¢	+24.4pp	LOW	PAPER	1046	clay	Round 3	+0.244
16	Belinda Bencic vs Peyton Stearns	Peyton Stearns	54.3%	30.0%	30¢	+24.3pp	LOW	PAPER	3419	clay	Round 3	+0.243
17	Hugo Gaston vs Francisco Cerundolo	Hugo Gaston	34.3%	10.0%	10¢	+24.3pp	LOW	PAPER	350842	clay	Round 2	+0.243
18	Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul	Tommy Paul	54.2%	31.0%	31¢	+23.2pp	LOW	PAPER	4491	hard	Round Of 32	+0.232
19	Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta	Pablo Carreno Busta	54.9%	32.0%	32¢	+22.9pp	LOW	PAPER	2781	hard	Round Of 32	+0.229
20	Anastasia Potapova vs Katie Boulter	Katie Boulter	41.1%	20.0%	20¢	+21.1pp	LOW	PAPER	14622	clay	Round 2	+0.211
21	Brandon Nakashima vs Luca Van Assche	Luca Van Assche	53.1%	32.0%	32¢	+21.1pp	LOW	PAPER	20730	hard	Round Of 64	+0.211
22	Yuliia Starodubtseva vs Xiyu Wang	Xiyu Wang	60.0%	39.0%	39¢	+21.0pp	LOW	PAPER	4258	hard	Round Of 32	+0.210
23	Antonia Ruzic vs Madison Keys	Antonia Ruzic	35.4%	15.0%	15¢	+20.4pp	LOW	PAPER	6786	clay	Round 2	+0.204
24	Camila Osorio vs Yulia Putintseva	Yulia Putintseva	47.6%	29.0%	29¢	+18.6pp	LOW	PAPER	99705	clay	Round 2	+0.186
25	Maria Sakkari vs Claire Liu	Claire Liu	54.2%	36.0%	36¢	+18.2pp	LOW	PAPER	11370	clay	Round 2	+0.182
26	Ben Shelton vs Raphael Collignon	Raphael Collignon	53.4%	36.0%	36¢	+17.4pp	LOW	PAPER	277941	hard	Round Of 64	+0.174
27	Mirra Andreeva vs Marie Bouzkova	Marie Bouzkova	29.7%	14.0%	14¢	+15.7pp	LOW	PAPER	797	clay	Round 3	+0.157
28	Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo	Jannik Sinner	61.6%	46.0%	46¢	+15.6pp	LOW	PAPER	3856052	clay	Round 2	+0.156
29	Karen Khachanov vs Jesper De Jong	Jesper De Jong	41.4%	29.0%	29¢	+12.4pp	LOW	PAPER	5038	hard	Round Of 32	+0.124
30	Victoria Mboko vs Katerina Siniakova	Katerina Siniakova	38.4%	27.0%	27¢	+11.4pp	LOW	PAPER	15314	clay	Round 2	+0.114
31	Novak Djokovic vs Joao Fonseca	Joao Fonseca	46.2%	35.0%	35¢	+11.2pp	LOW	PAPER	34832	hard	Round Of 32	+0.112
32	Arthur Rinderknech vs Matteo Berrettini	Matteo Berrettini	58.5%	49.0%	49¢	+9.5pp	LOW	PAPER	57138	clay	Round 2	+0.095
33	Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik	Jakub Mensik	33.2%	24.0%	24¢	+9.2pp	LOW	PAPER	16316	hard	Round Of 32	+0.092
34	Anna Kalinskaya vs Alina Korneeva	Alina Korneeva	40.6%	32.0%	32¢	+8.6pp	LOW	PAPER	22833	clay	Round 2	+0.086
35	Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka	Iva Jovic	52.8%	61.0%	61¢	-8.2pp	LOW	PAPER	0	clay	Round 3	-0.082
36	Ann Li vs Diane Parry	Diane Parry	35.9%	30.0%	30¢	+5.9pp	LOW	PAPER	16180	clay	Round 2	+0.059
37	Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas	Matteo Arnaldi	41.6%	39.0%	39¢	+2.6pp	LOW	PAPER	25176	hard	Round Of 64	+0.026
38	Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev	Nuno Borges	28.3%	29.0%	29¢	-0.7pp	LOW	SKIP	2397	hard	Round Of 32	-0.007
39	Frances Tiafoe vs Hubert Hurkacz	Frances Tiafoe	42.8%	43.0%	43¢	-0.2pp	LOW	SKIP	968727	clay	Round 2	-0.002

#	Player	Stat	PP line	Our proj	Edge %	Side	Tier	Opp	Surface	Demon	Payout
1	Katerina Siniakova🟨 WARM	Aces	0.5	2.82	+464.1%	MORE	LOW	Victoria Mboko	clay	—	1.0x
2	Anna Kalinskaya	Double Faults	4.5	0.00	+100.0%	LESS	LOW	Alina Korneeva	clay	—	0.5x
3	Madison Keys⏳ RTRN	Double Faults	2.5	0.00	+100.0%	LESS	LOW	Antonia Ruzic	clay	—	0.5x
4	Katie Boulter	Double Faults	5.5	0.00	+100.0%	LESS	LOW	Anastasia Potapova	clay	—	0.5x
5	Tamara Korpatsch🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	5.5	10.38	+88.8%	MORE	LOW	Elina Svitolina	clay	—	0.5x
6	Elsa Jacquemot🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	4.5	8.47	+88.3%	MORE	LOW	Aryna Sabalenka	clay	—	0.5x
7	Rafael Jodar🟨 WARM	Total Tie Breaks	0.5	0.12	+75.7%	LESS	LOW	Alex Michelsen	clay	—	1.0x
8	Luciano Darderi🟨 WARM	Total Tie Breaks	0.5	0.12	+75.5%	LESS	LOW	Francisco Comesana	clay	—	1.0x
9	Felix Auger-Aliassime🟨 WARM	Total Tie Breaks	0.5	0.12	+75.3%	LESS	LOW	Roman Andres Burruchaga	clay	—	1.0x
10	Julia Grabher	Total Games Won	7.5	11.80	+57.4%	MORE	LOW	Amanda Anisimova	clay	—	0.5x
11	Coco Gauff🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	5.5	2.40	+56.4%	LESS	ELITE	Maiar Sherif Ahmed Abdelaziz	clay	—	1.0x
12	Ben Shelton🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	21.5	10.16	+52.7%	LESS	LOW	Raphael Collignon	clay	—	0.5x
13	Arthur Rinderknech	Total Games Won	20.5	9.76	+52.4%	LESS	LOW	Matteo Berrettini	clay	—	0.5x
14	Karen Khachanov🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	19.5	9.55	+51.0%	LESS	LOW	Jesper De Jong	clay	—	1.0x
15	Francisco Comesana🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	17.5	8.85	+49.5%	LESS	LOW	Luciano Darderi	clay	—	0.5x
16	Brandon Nakashima	Total Games Won	20.5	10.43	+49.1%	LESS	LOW	Luca Van Assche	clay	—	0.5x
17	Matteo Arnaldi🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	19.5	10.01	+48.6%	LESS	LOW	Stefanos Tsitsipas	clay	—	0.5x
18	Stefanos Tsitsipas	Total Games Won	20.5	11.08	+46.0%	LESS	LOW	Matteo Arnaldi	clay	—	0.5x
19	Arthur Rinderknech	Aces	11.5	6.28	+45.4%	LESS	LOW	Matteo Berrettini	clay	—	0.5x
20	Matteo Berrettini	Total Games Won	20.5	11.26	+45.1%	LESS	LOW	Arthur Rinderknech	clay	—	0.5x
21	Raphael Collignon⏳ RTRN	Total Games Won	19.5	10.84	+44.4%	LESS	LOW	Ben Shelton	clay	—	0.5x
22	Ben Shelton🟨 WARM	Aces	11.5	6.41	+44.3%	LESS	LOW	Raphael Collignon	clay	—	0.5x
23	Luca Van Assche	Total Games Won	18.5	10.51	+43.2%	LESS	LOW	Brandon Nakashima	clay	—	0.5x
24	Luciano Darderi🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	20.5	11.72	+42.9%	LESS	LOW	Francisco Comesana	clay	—	0.5x
25	Jesper De Jong	Total Games Won	18.5	10.91	+41.0%	LESS	LOW	Karen Khachanov	clay	—	0.5x
26	Matteo Berrettini	Aces	10.5	6.36	+39.4%	LESS	LOW	Arthur Rinderknech	clay	—	0.5x
27	Matteo Berrettini	Total Games	40.5	24.91	+38.5%	LESS	LOW	Arthur Rinderknech	clay	—	0.5x
28	Matteo Berrettini	Total Games	40.5	24.91	+38.5%	LESS	LOW	Arthur Rinderknech	clay	—	0.5x
29	Ben Shelton🟨 WARM	Total Games	40.5	25.16	+37.9%	LESS	LOW	Raphael Collignon	clay	—	0.5x
30	Iga Swiatek	Total Games	17.0	23.40	+37.6%	MORE	LOW	Magda Linette	clay	—	0.5x
31	Aryna Sabalenka🟨 WARM	Total Games	16.5	22.55	+36.6%	MORE	LOW	Elsa Jacquemot	clay	—	0.5x
32	Stefanos Tsitsipas	Total Games	39.5	25.13	+36.4%	LESS	LOW	Matteo Arnaldi	clay	—	0.5x
33	Novak Djokovic⏳ RTRN	Total Games	38.5	25.02	+35.0%	LESS	LOW	Joao Fonseca	clay	—	0.5x
34	Felix Auger-Aliassime🟨 WARM	Total Games	36.5	24.29	+33.4%	LESS	LOW	Roman Andres Burruchaga	clay	—	0.5x
35	Roman Andres Burruchaga🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	17.5	11.68	+33.2%	LESS	LOW	Felix Auger-Aliassime	clay	—	0.5x
36	Karen Khachanov🧊 COLD	Total Games	37.5	25.08	+33.1%	LESS	LOW	Jesper De Jong	clay	—	0.5x
37	Thiago Agustin Tirante🟨 WARM	Total Games	37.5	25.12	+33.0%	LESS	LOW	Pablo Carreno Busta	clay	—	0.5x
38	Brandon Nakashima	Total Games	37.5	25.13	+33.0%	LESS	LOW	Luca Van Assche	clay	—	0.5x
39	Luciano Darderi🟨 WARM	Total Games	36.0	24.18	+32.8%	LESS	LOW	Francisco Comesana	clay	—	0.5x
40	Casper Ruud🟨 WARM	Total Games	37.5	25.20	+32.8%	LESS	LOW	Tommy Paul	clay	—	0.5x
41	Brandon Nakashima	Aces	9.5	6.41	+32.6%	LESS	LOW	Luca Van Assche	clay	—	0.5x
42	Rafael Jodar🟨 WARM	Total Games	34.5	23.79	+31.1%	LESS	LOW	Alex Michelsen	clay	—	0.5x
43	Andrey Rublev🟨 WARM	Total Games	36.0	25.09	+30.3%	LESS	LOW	Nuno Borges	clay	—	0.5x
44	Marta Kostyuk🟨 WARM	Total Games	17.5	22.77	+30.1%	MORE	LOW	Viktorija Golubic	clay	—	0.5x
45	Katie Boulter	Break Points Won	3.5	4.51	+29.0%	MORE	LOW	Anastasia Potapova	clay	—	1.0x
46	Karolina Muchova⏳ RTRN	Total Games	19.0	24.46	+28.7%	MORE	LOW	Jil Teichmann	clay	—	0.5x
47	Antonia Ruzic🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	7.0	8.94	+27.8%	MORE	LOW	Madison Keys	clay	—	0.5x
48	Alina Korneeva🧊 COLD	Break Points Won	3.5	4.46	+27.5%	MORE	LOW	Anna Kalinskaya	clay	—	1.0x
49	Alexander Zverev🟨 WARM	Total Games	31.5	23.16	+26.5%	LESS	LOW	Quentin Halys	clay	—	0.5x
50	Brandon Nakashima	Total Tie Breaks	0.5	0.37	+25.4%	LESS	LOW	Luca Van Assche	clay	—	1.0x
51	Madison Keys⏳ RTRN	Total Games	19.0	23.63	+24.4%	MORE	LOW	Antonia Ruzic	clay	—	0.5x
52	Katerina Siniakova🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	3.5	4.34	+23.9%	MORE	LOW	Victoria Mboko	clay	—	1.0x
53	Amanda Anisimova⏳ RTRN	Break Points Won	5.5	4.19	+23.8%	LESS	LOW	Julia Grabher	clay	—	1.0x
54	Diane Parry🧊 COLD	Aces	3.5	2.69	+23.2%	LESS	LOW	Ann Li	clay	—	1.0x
55	Mirra Andreeva🟨 WARM	Total Games	19.5	24.00	+23.1%	MORE	LOW	Marie Bouzkova	clay	—	0.5x
56	Anastasia Potapova🟨 WARM	Total Games	19.5	23.75	+21.8%	MORE	LOW	Katie Boulter	clay	—	0.5x
57	Stefanos Tsitsipas	Break Points Won	4.5	3.55	+21.2%	LESS	LOW	Matteo Arnaldi	clay	—	1.0x
58	Maria Sakkari🧊 COLD	Total Games	20.5	24.42	+19.1%	MORE	LOW	Claire Liu	clay	—	0.5x
59	Amanda Anisimova⏳ RTRN	Total Games	19.5	23.21	+19.1%	MORE	LOW	Julia Grabher	clay	—	0.5x
60	Diane Parry🧊 COLD	Break Points Won	3.5	4.15	+18.6%	MORE	LOW	Ann Li	clay	—	1.0x
61	Anna Kalinskaya	Total Games	20.5	24.30	+18.5%	MORE	LOW	Alina Korneeva	clay	—	0.5x
62	Belinda Bencic🟨 WARM	Total Games	21.0	24.47	+16.6%	MORE	LOW	Peyton Stearns	clay	—	0.5x
63	Ben Shelton🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	4.0	3.34	+16.4%	LESS	LOW	Raphael Collignon	clay	—	1.0x
64	Matteo Arnaldi🟨 WARM	Aces	7.5	6.37	+15.0%	LESS	LOW	Stefanos Tsitsipas	clay	—	0.5x
65	Peyton Stearns	Total Games Won	9.5	10.80	+13.7%	MORE	LOW	Belinda Bencic	clay	—	1.0x
66	Katie Boulter	Total Games Won	8.5	9.64	+13.4%	MORE	LOW	Anastasia Potapova	clay	—	0.5x
67	Victoria Mboko🟨 WARM	Aces	2.5	2.83	+13.3%	MORE	LOW	Katerina Siniakova	clay	—	1.0x
68	Sorana Cirstea🟨 WARM	Total Games	20.5	23.22	+13.3%	MORE	LOW	Solana Sierra	clay	—	0.5x
69	Claire Liu🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	4.5	4.94	+9.7%	MORE	LOW	Maria Sakkari	clay	—	1.0x
70	Alina Korneeva🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	10.5	9.53	+9.3%	LESS	LOW	Anna Kalinskaya	clay	—	0.5x
71	Claire Liu🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	11.5	10.52	+8.6%	LESS	LOW	Maria Sakkari	clay	—	0.5x
72	Maria Sakkari🧊 COLD	Break Points Won	5.0	4.68	+6.3%	LESS	LOW	Claire Liu	clay	—	1.0x
73	Victoria Mboko🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	5.0	5.29	+5.9%	MORE	LOW	Katerina Siniakova	clay	—	1.0x
74	Ann Li	Break Points Won	5.0	5.27	+5.4%	MORE	LOW	Diane Parry	clay	—	1.0x
75	Anastasia Potapova🟨 WARM	Break Points Won	5.0	5.19	+3.9%	MORE	LOW	Katie Boulter	clay	—	1.0x
76	Anna Kalinskaya	Break Points Won	5.0	5.15	+2.9%	MORE	LOW	Alina Korneeva	clay	—	1.0x
77	Stefanos Tsitsipas	Aces	6.5	6.42	+1.2%	LESS	LOW	Matteo Arnaldi	clay	—	1.0x
78	Katerina Siniakova🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	9.5	9.42	+0.9%	LESS	LOW	Victoria Mboko	clay	—	0.5x
79	Raphael Collignon⏳ RTRN	Aces	6.5	6.45	+0.7%	LESS	LOW	Ben Shelton	clay	—	0.5x

Kalshi tennis — 1 picks · $2.00 staked

Day 1 - paper only, grade EOD before scaling · locked 2026-05-28T13:14:28.565701+00:00

#	Match	Pick	Our P	Ask	Edge	Tier	Surface	Stake	Status	P&L
1	Yuliia Starodubtseva vs Xiyu Wang	Xiyu Wang	60.0%	39¢	21.0pp	ELITE	hard	$2.00	OPEN	+0.00

PrizePicks tennis — 0 picks · $0.00 staked

Day 1 - paper only, grade EOD before scaling · locked 2026-05-28T13:14:28.506378+00:00

#	Player	Stat	Line	Our proj	Side	Edge	Tier	Surface	Stake	Status	P&L

Polymarket = retail/crypto sentiment. We can't bet there from CA, but the divergence vs Kalshi (sharp) reveals where the public is loading up. Generated 2026-05-28T06:14:38 · flagged threshold = ±3.0pp · 3 flagged futures / 0 flagged matches.

Grand-slam futures · ANY 2026 Slam (Kalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM vs Polymarket per-slam aggregate)

Polymarket "any-slam" probability computed naively as 1 - product(1 - p_slam). Positive divergence = public (Polymarket) more bullish than sharp (Kalshi). Sorted by |divergence|.

Player	Sharp (Kalshi)	Public (Poly)	Δ	Poly per-slam
Daniil Medvedev · exact	10.5%	3.9%	-6.6pp · SHARP HIGHER	Wim 2%, US 2%
Ben Shelton · exact	11.0%	5.7%	-5.3pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 1%, Wim 3%, US 2%
Novak Djokovic · exact	17.5%	22.3%	+4.8pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Fre 6%, Wim 11%, US 7%
Karen Khachanov · exact	3.0%	0.7%	-2.3pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 0%, Wim 1%
Alexander Zverev · exact	23.5%	21.4%	-2.1pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 14%, Wim 5%, US 3%
Lorenzo Musetti · exact	4.0%	2.0%	-2.0pp · SHARP HIGHER	Wim 1%, US 1%
Felix Auger-Aliassime · exact	2.5%	0.7%	-1.8pp · SHARP HIGHER	Wim 1%
Alexander Bublik · exact	3.0%	1.3%	-1.7pp · SHARP HIGHER	Wim 1%, US 1%
Jannik Sinner · exact	89.5%	90.7%	+1.2pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Fre 53%, Wim 57%, US 54%
Alex de Minaur · exact	2.0%	1.5%	-0.5pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 1%, Wim 1%
Frances Tiafoe · exact	0.5%	0.9%	+0.4pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Fre 0%, Wim 0%, US 1%
Casper Ruud · exact	4.0%	3.6%	-0.4pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 3%, Wim 0%
Taylor Fritz · exact	4.5%	4.2%	-0.3pp · SHARP HIGHER	Wim 3%, US 1%
Jack Draper · exact	6.0%	5.9%	-0.1pp · SHARP HIGHER	Wim 4%, US 2%

Per-match overlaps

No active per-match overlaps right now (Polymarket tennis volume concentrates in Grand Slam futures).

Per-stat-type MAE (n_graded=18)

Bar width = MAE (lower = better). "INSUFFICIENT" = need more graded picks.

Total Games

n=4

Ours

Us 6.45
PP 3.25
INSUFFICIENT_N

Total Games Won

n=13

Ours

Us 5.11
PP 4.96
NULL

Total Tie Breaks

n=1

Ours

Us 0.25
PP 0.50
INSUFFICIENT_N

Per-tier MAE

Bar width = MAE (lower = better). "INSUFFICIENT" = need more graded picks.

ELITE

n=16

Ours

Us 4.94
PP 3.75
NULL

MED

n=0

Ours

Us —
PP —
INSUFFICIENT_N

STRONG

n=2

Ours

Us 6.75
PP 9.00
INSUFFICIENT_N

[!]

No AAR available yet.
Expected: ~/.claude/projects/.../memory/aar_tennis_<date>.md

[MV]

No actionable PP line movement yet.
Expected: pp_line_movement_tennis_2026-05-28.csv. Needs at least 2 PP snapshots in pp_snapshots_tennis/.

ATP top 50

Rk	Player	Country	Pts	ELO overall	ELO clay	ELO grass	ELO hard
1	Jannik Sinner	ITA	14750	2175	1857	1695	2062
2	Carlos Alcaraz	ESP	11960	2070	1867	1717	1956
3	Alexander Zverev	GER	5705	1961	1816	1594	1863
4	Novak Djokovic	SRB	4460	1955	1738	1636	1846
5	Ben Shelton	USA	4070	1848	1683	1561	1765
6	Felix Auger Aliassime	CAN	4050	1864	1605	1517	1803
7	Alex De Minaur	AUS	3855	1847	1652	1590	1806
8	Daniil Medvedev	RUS	3760	1878	1641	1585	1845
9	Taylor Fritz	USA	3720	1826	1581	1722	1749
10	Alexander Bublik	KAZ	3320	1803	1724	1569	1703
11	Lorenzo Musetti	ITA	3115	1828	1756	1607	1723
12	Jiri Lehecka	CZE	2665	1837	1647	1574	1754
13	Andrey Rublev	RUS	2460	1762	1658	1516	1683
14	Flavio Cobolli	ITA	2340	1796	1720	1557	1655
15	Karen Khachanov	RUS	2320	1691	1586	1567	1639
16	Casper Ruud	NOR	2275	1792	1744	1502	1685
17	Luciano Darderi	ITA	2260	1714	1767	1466	1466
18	Learner Tien	USA	2180	1800	1466	1506	1789
19	Valentin Vacherot	MON	2103	1810	1702	1467	1738
20	Arthur Fils	FRA	2040	1912	1762	1546	1771
21	Tommy Paul	USA	1945	1842	1748	1587	1743
22	Frances Tiafoe	USA	1905	1771	1604	1488	1719
23	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	ESP	1860	1756	1572	1545	1703
24	Cameron Norrie	GBR	1785	1776	1658	1529	1682
25	Arthur Rinderknech	FRA	1736	1713	1566	1530	1631
26	Francisco Cerundolo	ARG	1570	1801	1726	1426	1698
27	Jakub Mensik	CZE	1550	1795	1589	1497	1747
28	Tomas Martin Etcheverry	ARG	1510	1785	1693	1456	1636
29	Rafael Jodar	ESP	1461	1874	1714	—	1765
30	Joao Fonseca	BRA	1435	1818	1638	1495	1795
31	Ignacio Buse	PER	1412	1709	1693	1482	1562
32	Ugo Humbert	FRA	1370	1712	1451	1517	1697
33	Tallon Griekspoor	NED	1340	1681	1575	1564	1645
34	Corentin Moutet	FRA	1323	1706	1600	1574	1640
35	Brandon Nakashima	USA	1295	1706	1570	1590	1660
36	Alejandro Tabilo	CHI	1278	1786	1696	1575	1637
37	Alexander Blockx	BEL	1238	1820	1689	1508	1713
38	Mariano Navone	ARG	1215	1718	1716	1460	1507
39	Denis Shapovalov	CAN	1170	1690	1498	1472	1698
40	Zizou Bergs	BEL	1150	1705	1570	1521	1631
41	Jaume Munar	ESP	1145	1695	1563	1508	1635
42	Alex Michelsen	USA	1115	1715	1488	1538	1702
43	Tomas Machac	CZE	1080	1737	1592	1500	1682
44	Holger Rune	DEN	1060	1744	1663	1515	1710
45	Adrian Mannarino	FRA	1037	1589	1390	1584	1569
46	Marin Cilic	CRO	1010	1710	1539	1611	1635
47	Sebastian Korda	USA	1000	1806	1537	1556	1757
48	Miomir Kecmanovic	SRB	980	1607	1483	1500	1595
49	Gabriel Diallo	CAN	975	1651	1554	1576	1615
50	Ethan Quinn	USA	974	1731	1594	1509	1683

WTA top 50

Rk	Player	Country	Pts	ELO overall	ELO clay	ELO grass	ELO hard
1	Aryna Sabalenka	BLR	9960	2115	1808	1588	2045
2	Elena Rybakina	KAZ	8313	2063	1760	1580	1972
3	Iga Swiatek	POL	7273	1924	1780	1658	1852
4	Coco Gauff	USA	6749	1957	1787	1519	1871
5	Jessica Pegula	USA	6286	1997	1701	1583	1901
6	Amanda Anisimova	USA	5958	1916	1561	1638	1822
7	Elina Svitolina	UKR	4315	1922	1727	1550	1824
8	Mirra Andreeva	RUS	4181	1932	1800	1513	1797
9	Victoria Mboko	CAN	3710	1936	1704	1515	1891
10	Karolina Muchova	CZE	3318	1951	1597	1494	1869
11	Belinda Bencic	SUI	3145	1898	1584	1561	1831
12	Linda Noskova	CZE	3054	1881	1589	1583	1763
13	Jasmine Paolini	ITA	2787	1815	1707	1585	1741
14	Ekaterina Alexandrova	RUS	2679	1747	1593	1584	1662
15	Marta Kostyuk	UKR	2387	1924	1757	1449	1755
16	Naomi Osaka	JPN	2341	1819	1628	1514	1734
17	Iva Jovic	USA	2306	1829	1663	1601	1759
18	Sorana Cirstea	ROU	1985	1866	1612	1429	1797
19	Madison Keys	USA	1962	1836	1706	1558	1766
20	Clara Tauson	DEN	1920	1746	1560	1520	1679
21	Elise Mertens	BEL	1858	1802	1580	1581	1714
22	Leylah Fernandez	CAN	1844	1790	1590	1546	1679
23	Diana Shnaider	RUS	1796	1782	1647	1565	1686
24	Anna Kalinskaya	RUS	1792	1784	1538	1546	1721
25	Emma Navarro	USA	1719	1680	1578	1590	1613
26	Hailey Baptiste	USA	1683	1785	1662	1488	1667
27	Liudmila Samsonova	RUS	1635	1697	1604	1619	1566
28	Marie Bouzkova	CZE	1631	1773	1699	1476	1648
29	Ann Li	USA	1601	1745	1638	1478	1647
30	Anastasia Potapova	RUS	1470	1787	1690	1484	1640
31	Jelena Ostapenko	LAT	1464	1723	1632	1534	1621
32	Jaqueline Cristian	ROU	1414	1770	1635	1432	1698
33	Cristina Bucsa	ESP	1406	1738	1475	1514	1684
34	Xin Yu Wang	CHN	1371	1735	1546	1591	1616
35	Sara Bejlek	CZE	1369	1832	1797	1486	1653
36	Katerina Siniakova	CZE	1362	1777	1549	1578	1693
37	Alexandra Eala	PHI	1340	1786	1478	1600	1748
38	Elisabetta Cocciaretto	ITA	1320	1800	1584	1577	1689
39	Emma Raducanu	GBR	1301	1753	1570	1577	1658
40	Janice Tjen	INA	1292	1817	1662	—	1785
41	Barbora Krejcikova	CZE	1271	1715	1480	1606	1647
42	Tereza Valentova	CZE	1265	1845	1746	1517	1788
43	Lois Boisson	FRA	1264	1791	1811	1483	1554
44	Marketa Vondrousova	CZE	1263	1728	1606	1578	1609
45	Dayana Yastremska	UKR	1246	1695	1588	1575	1594
46	Magdalena Frech	POL	1238	1649	1534	1434	1613
47	Laura Siegemund	GER	1230	1680	1535	1541	1592
48	Mccartney Kessler	USA	1229	1754	1516	1583	1688
49	Maria Sakkari	GRE	1208	1707	1563	1486	1658
50	Jessica Bouzas Maneiro	ESP	1200	1658	1643	1524	1578

Source	DB / file	Last pulled	Age	Rows	Status
Kalshi KXATPMATCH	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-28T13:12:26.236129+00:00	2m	1798	fresh
Kalshi KXWTAMATCH	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-28T13:12:26.236129+00:00	2m	1666	fresh
Kalshi KXFRENCHOPEN	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-28T13:12:26.236129+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXFOPENMENSINGLE	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-28T13:12:26.236129+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-28T13:12:26.236129+00:00	2m	14	fresh
Kalshi KXUSOPEN	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-28T13:12:26.236129+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATPSETWINNER	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-28T13:12:26.236129+00:00	2m	3698	fresh
Kalshi KXATPTOTALSETS	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-28T13:12:26.236129+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATPSETSWEEP	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-28T13:12:26.236129+00:00	2m	1	fresh
Kalshi KXATPGAMESPREAD	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-28T13:12:26.236129+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATPEXACTMATCH	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-28T13:12:26.236129+00:00	2m	1714	fresh
Kalshi KXWTADOUBLES	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-28T13:12:26.236129+00:00	2m	94	fresh
Kalshi KXATP1RANK	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-28T13:12:26.236129+00:00	2m	16	fresh
elo last computed	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-28T13:12:23+00:00	2m	20051	fresh
rankings last pulled	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-28T13:12:25+00:00	2m	7538	fresh
rankings atp latest date	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-25	85.24h	—	stale
rankings wta latest date	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-25	85.24h	—	stale
mirror atp schedule	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-28T13:14:00.538083+00:00	0m	92	fresh
h2h last computed	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-17T10:11:57.514615+00:00	267.05h	—	stale
h2h n pairs	tennis.sqlite	190184	missing	—	missing
last player db run	tennis.sqlite	1779974057	missing	—	missing
results last_run	tennis_results.sqlite	[2026-05-28T13:14:03.022238+00:00] 2026-05-28T13:14:00.871255+00:00; dates=['20260527']; rows=756; resolved=726	missing	—	missing
pp_edges CSV	pp_edges_tennis_2026-05-28.csv	2026-05-28T13:14:26.575898+00:00	0m	—	fresh
kalshi edges JSON	tennis_kalshi_edges_2026-05-28.json	2026-05-28T13:14:23.683552+00:00	0m	—	fresh
paper trades PP	paper_trades_pp_tennis_2026-05-28.json	2026-05-28T13:14:29.018567+00:00	0m	—	fresh
paper trades Kalshi	paper_trades_kalshi_tennis_2026-05-28.json	2026-05-28T13:14:29.480562+00:00	0m	—	fresh
daily payload	daily_tennis_2026-05-28.json	2026-05-28T13:14:30.133023+00:00	0m	—	fresh
PP movement	pp_line_movement_tennis_2026-05-28.csv	2026-05-28T13:14:29.672287+00:00	0m	—	fresh
PP calibration	pp_calibration_tennis.json	2026-05-28T13:14:29.609468+00:00	0m	—	fresh