Tennis EdgeBoard - 2026-05-20

Kalshi KXATPMATCH 2m · 1770rKalshi KXWTAMATCH 2m · 1672rKalshi KXFRENCHOPEN 2mKalshi KXFOPENMENSINGLE 2mKalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM 2m · 14rKalshi KXUSOPEN 2mKalshi KXATPSETWINNER 2m · 3516rKalshi KXATPTOTALSETS 2mKalshi KXATPSETSWEEP 2mKalshi KXATPGAMESPREAD 2mKalshi KXATPEXACTMATCH 2m · 1016rKalshi KXWTADOUBLES 2mKalshi KXATP1RANK 2m · 16relo last computed 2m · 20051rrankings last pulled 2m · 3745rrankings atp latest date 16drankings wta latest date 16dmirror atp schedule 0m · 93rh2h last computed 3dh2h n pairs missinglast player db run missingresults last_run missingpp_edges CSV 0mkalshi edges JSON 0mpaper trades PP 0mpaper trades Kalshi 0mdaily payload 0mPP movement 0mPP calibration 0m

Matches today

scheduled

ELITE edges

across Kalshi + PP

STRONG edges

tier 2

MED edges

tier 3

Paper locks

Kalshi + PP

Real Money YTD

-$10.00

paper-gate restored

Qualifying skipped

filtered out today

Last refresh

17:41

2026-05-20 UTC

🏆 Best Bet (main-draw)

No main-draw Kalshi pick survived qualifying filter today.

🎯 Safest (P ≥ 65%)

Mariano Navone

Mariano Navone vs Jaume Munar · Quarterfinal clay · LOW

64%

Heavy main-draw favorite · PAPER

Edge +8.1pp
Ask 56¢

💎 Biggest Payout (ELITE)

No ELITE main-draw longshot today.

#	Match	Tournament	Round	Surface	Start	ELO A	ELO B	ELO diff	Kalshi event
1	? vs Harmony Tan	Roland Garros	Qualifying 2nd Round	clay	May 20 14:50	—	1464	—
2	? vs Harmony Tan	Roland Garros	Qualifying 2nd Round	clay	May 20 14:50	—	1464	—
3	Darja Semenistaja vs Katarina Zavatska	Roland Garros	Qualifying 2nd Round	clay	May 20 14:55	1765	1734	+31	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY20SEMZAV
4	Darja Semenistaja vs Katarina Zavatska	Roland Garros	Qualifying 2nd Round	clay	May 20 14:55	1765	1734	+31	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY20SEMZAV
5	Luka Pavlovic vs Tomas Barrios Vera	Roland Garros	Qualifying 2nd Round	clay	May 20 15:20	1583	1678	-96	KXATPMATCH-26MAY20PAVBAR
6	Luka Pavlovic vs Tomas Barrios Vera	Roland Garros	Qualifying 2nd Round	clay	May 20 15:20	1583	1678	-96	KXATPMATCH-26MAY20PAVBAR
7	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alex De Minaur	Bitpanda Hamburg Open	Round 2	clay	May 20 15:25	1572	1652	-80	KXATPMATCH-26MAY19DAVDE
8	Maria Lourdes Carle vs Maria Timofeeva	Roland Garros	Qualifying 2nd Round	clay	May 20 15:30	1630	1648	-19	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY20CARTIM
9	Maria Lourdes Carle vs Maria Timofeeva	Roland Garros	Qualifying 2nd Round	clay	May 20 15:30	1630	1648	-19	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY20CARTIM
10	Emma Navarro vs Iva Jovic	Internationaux de Strasbourg presented by Mammotion	Round 2	clay	May 20 15:35	1578	1663	-85	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY19NAVJOV
11	Polina Kudermetova vs Viktoriya Tomova	Roland Garros	Qualifying 2nd Round	clay	May 20 15:45	1716	1506	+210	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY20KUDTOM
12	Polina Kudermetova vs Viktoriya Tomova	Roland Garros	Qualifying 2nd Round	clay	May 20 15:45	1716	1506	+210	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY20KUDTOM
13	Stan Wawrinka vs Alex Michelsen	Gonet Geneva Open	Round 2	clay	May 20 16:05	1464	1488	-24	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY20WAWMIC-2
14	Gianluca Cadenasso vs Leandro Riedi	Roland Garros	Qualifying 2nd Round	clay	May 20 16:25	1609	1542	+67	KXATPMATCH-26MAY20CADRIE
15	Yuliia Starodubtseva vs Anhelina Kalinina	Grand Prix Son Altesse Royale La Princesse Lalla Meryem	Round 2	clay	May 20 16:25	1619	1767	-148	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY20STAKAL
16	Gianluca Cadenasso vs Leandro Riedi	Roland Garros	Qualifying 2nd Round	clay	May 20 16:25	1609	1542	+67	KXATPMATCH-26MAY20CADRIE
17	Lucia Bronzetti vs Lucrezia Stefanini	Roland Garros	Qualifying 2nd Round	clay	May 20 16:55	1533	1501	+32	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY20BROSTE
18	Lucia Bronzetti vs Lucrezia Stefanini	Roland Garros	Qualifying 2nd Round	clay	May 20 16:55	1533	1501	+32	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY20BROSTE
19	Tristan Schoolkate vs Darwin Blanch	Roland Garros	Qualifying 2nd Round	clay	May 20 17:00	1510	1530	-20	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY20SCHBLA-2
20	Tristan Schoolkate vs Darwin Blanch	Roland Garros	Qualifying 2nd Round	clay	May 20 17:00	1510	1530	-20	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY20SCHBLA-2
21	Rebecca Sramkova vs Francisca Jorge	Roland Garros	Qualifying 2nd Round	clay	May 20 17:05	1582	1491	+92	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY20SRAJOR
22	Rebecca Sramkova vs Francisca Jorge	Roland Garros	Qualifying 2nd Round	clay	May 20 17:05	1582	1491	+92	KXWTAMATCH-26MAY20SRAJOR
23	Edas Butvilas vs Alexander Bublik	Gonet Geneva Open	Round 2	clay	May 20 17:50	1501	1724	-223	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY20BUTBUB-1
24	Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann	Bitpanda Hamburg Open	Round 2	clay	May 20 18:30	1767	1668	+98	KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY20DARHAN-2

#	Match	Our pick	Our P	Mkt P	Ask	Edge	Tier	Decision	Vol 24h	Surface	Round	EV/$
1	Viktoriya Tomova vs Polina Kudermetova Qual	Viktoriya Tomova	45.0%	8.0%	8¢	+37.0pp	LOW	SKIP	100944	clay	Qualifying 2nd Round	+0.370
2	Tristan Schoolkate vs Darwin Blanch Qual	Tristan Schoolkate	50.6%	15.0%	15¢	+35.6pp	LOW	SKIP	103023	hard	Qualification Round 2	+0.356
3	Camila Osorio vs Panna Udvardy	Panna Udvardy	57.9%	91.0%	91¢	-33.1pp	LOW	PAPER	0	clay	Quarterfinal	-0.331
4	Jil Teichmann vs Yasmine Kabbaj	Yasmine Kabbaj	51.8%	19.0%	19¢	+32.8pp	LOW	PAPER	12	clay	Quarterfinal	+0.328
5	Frances Tiafoe vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli	Frances Tiafoe	63.7%	31.0%	31¢	+32.7pp	LOW	PAPER	1002301	hard	Round Of 16	+0.327
6	Francisca Jorge vs Rebecca Sramkova Qual	Francisca Jorge	45.0%	14.0%	14¢	+31.0pp	LOW	SKIP	17010	clay	Qualifying 2nd Round	+0.310
7	Alex de Minaur vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	44.2%	14.0%	14¢	+30.2pp	LOW	PAPER	637156	clay	Round 2	+0.302
8	Thomas Faurel vs Dalibor Svrcina Qual	Thomas Faurel	45.0%	20.0%	20¢	+25.0pp	LOW	PAPER	1385	hard	Qualification Final	+0.250
9	Andrea Pellegrino vs Marco Cecchinato Qual	Marco Cecchinato	54.2%	33.0%	33¢	+21.2pp	LOW	PAPER	372	hard	Qualification Final	+0.212
10	Ashlyn Krueger vs Mary Stoiana Qual	Mary Stoiana	55.0%	34.0%	34¢	+21.0pp	LOW	PAPER	123	clay	Qualifying Final	+0.210
11	Maja Chwalinska vs Suzan Lamens Qual	Suzan Lamens	45.0%	26.0%	26¢	+19.0pp	LOW	PAPER	52	clay	Qualifying Final	+0.190
12	Sinja Kraus vs Anna-Lena Friedsam Qual	Anna-Lena Friedsam	41.4%	24.0%	24¢	+17.4pp	LOW	PAPER	13	clay	Qualifying Final	+0.174
13	August Holmgren vs Facundo Diaz Acosta Qual	August Holmgren	45.0%	28.0%	28¢	+17.0pp	LOW	PAPER	147	clay	Qualifying Final	+0.170
14	Sloane Stephens vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Qual	Leyre Romero Gormaz	58.6%	42.0%	42¢	+16.6pp	LOW	PAPER	25	clay	Qualifying Final	+0.166
15	Alexander Bublik vs Edas Butvilas	Edas Butvilas	44.4%	28.0%	28¢	+16.4pp	LOW	PAPER	42242	hard	Round Of 16	+0.163
16	Stan Wawrinka vs Alex Michelsen	Stan Wawrinka	38.1%	22.0%	22¢	+16.1pp	LOW	PAPER	370456	hard	Round Of 16	+0.161
17	Lucrezia Stefanini vs Lucia Bronzetti Qual	Lucrezia Stefanini	43.5%	28.0%	28¢	+15.5pp	LOW	PAPER	23902	clay	Qualifying 2nd Round	+0.155
18	Ignacio Buse vs Ugo Humbert	Ugo Humbert	59.7%	45.0%	45¢	+14.7pp	LOW	PAPER	21	hard	Quarterfinal	+0.147
19	Alina Korneeva vs Julia Riera Qual	Julia Riera	58.6%	44.0%	44¢	+14.6pp	LOW	PAPER	0	clay	Qualifying Final	+0.146
20	Maria Carle vs Maria Timofeeva Qual	Maria Timofeeva	66.3%	52.0%	52¢	+14.3pp	LOW	PAPER	103196	clay	Qualifying 2nd Round	+0.143
21	Iva Jovic vs Emma Navarro	Iva Jovic	56.9%	43.0%	43¢	+13.9pp	LOW	PAPER	1208372	clay	Round 2	+0.139
22	Michael Zheng vs Jesper De Jong Qual	Michael Zheng	45.0%	33.0%	33¢	+12.0pp	LOW	PAPER	1696	clay	Qualifying Final	+0.120
23	Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud	Alexei Popyrin	35.2%	26.0%	26¢	+9.2pp	LOW	PAPER	376	hard	Quarterfinal	+0.092
24	Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Petra Marcinko	Petra Marcinko	56.1%	47.0%	47¢	+9.1pp	LOW	PAPER	0	clay	Quarterfinal	+0.091
25	Coleman Wong vs Juan Carlos Prado Angelo Qual	Coleman Wong	55.0%	64.0%	64¢	-9.0pp	LOW	PAPER	260	hard	Qualification Final	-0.090
26	Harmony Tan vs Xinyu Gao Qual	Harmony Tan	54.5%	46.0%	46¢	+8.5pp	LOW	PAPER	272265	hard	Qualification Round 2	+0.085
27	Yannick Hanfmann vs Luciano Darderi	Yannick Hanfmann	44.2%	36.0%	36¢	+8.2pp	LOW	PAPER	134081	hard	Round Of 16	+0.082
28	Mariano Navone vs Jaume Munar	Mariano Navone	64.1%	56.0%	56¢	+8.1pp	LOW	PAPER	118	clay	Quarterfinal	+0.081
29	Elena Pridankina vs Himeno Sakatsume Qual	Himeno Sakatsume	45.0%	38.0%	38¢	+7.0pp	LOW	PAPER	0	clay	Qualifying Final	+0.070
30	Federico Cina vs Alexis Galarneau Qual	Alexis Galarneau	50.4%	57.0%	57¢	-6.6pp	LOW	PAPER	9	hard	Qualification Final	-0.066
31	Darja Semenistaja vs Katarina Zavatska Qual	Darja Semenistaja	53.0%	47.0%	47¢	+6.0pp	LOW	PAPER	282378	clay	Qualifying 2nd Round	+0.060
32	Jaqueline Cristian vs Daria Kasatkina	Jaqueline Cristian	45.0%	39.0%	39¢	+6.0pp	LOW	PAPER	247	clay	Quarterfinal	+0.060
33	Hanyu Guo vs Sofia Costoulas Qual	Hanyu Guo	47.6%	42.0%	42¢	+5.6pp	LOW	PAPER	66	hard	Qualification Final	+0.056
34	Ann Li vs Marie Bouzkova	Marie Bouzkova	54.6%	49.0%	49¢	+5.6pp	LOW	PAPER	386	clay	Quarterfinal	+0.056
35	Leandro Riedi vs Gianluca Cadenasso Qual	Leandro Riedi	45.2%	41.0%	41¢	+4.2pp	LOW	PAPER	170305	clay	Qualifying 2nd Round	+0.042
36	Guiomar Maristany Zuleta de Reales vs Kaitlin Quevedo Qual	Guiomar Maristany Zuleta de Reales	53.0%	49.0%	49¢	+4.0pp	LOW	PAPER	0	clay	Qualifying Final	+0.040
37	Marina Bassols Ribera vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich Qual	Marina Bassols Ribera	55.0%	52.0%	52¢	+3.0pp	LOW	PAPER	0	clay	Qualifying Final	+0.030
38	Victoria Mboko vs Leylah Fernandez	Leylah Fernandez	41.1%	40.0%	40¢	+1.1pp	LOW	SKIP	535	clay	Quarterfinal	+0.011
39	Gonzalo Bueno vs Toby Samuel Qual	Toby Samuel	55.0%	56.0%	56¢	-1.0pp	LOW	SKIP	278	hard	Qualification Final	-0.010
40	Tommy Paul vs Daniel Altmaier	Daniel Altmaier	31.7%	31.0%	31¢	+0.7pp	LOW	SKIP	242	hard	Quarterfinal	+0.007
41	Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera vs Luka Pavlovic Qual	Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera	50.6%	50.0%	50¢	+0.6pp	LOW	SKIP	353194	clay	Qualifying 2nd Round	+0.006
42	Lukas Neumayer vs Jaime Faria Qual	Jaime Faria	51.3%	51.0%	51¢	+0.3pp	LOW	SKIP	241	clay	Qualifying Final	+0.003

#	Player	Stat	PP line	Our proj	Edge %	Side	Tier	Opp	Surface	Demon	Payout
1	Yasmine Kabbaj	Total Games Won	7.5	10.28	+37.1%	MORE	LOW	Jil Teichmann	clay	—	0.5x
2	Thomas Faurel	Total Games Won	7.5	10.05	+34.0%	MORE	LOW	Dalibor Svrcina	clay	—	1.0x
3	Marina Bassols Ribera🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	8.5	10.91	+28.3%	MORE	LOW	Aliaksandra Sasnovich	clay	—	1.0x
4	Dalibor Svrcina🟨 WARM	Total Games	19.5	24.83	+27.3%	MORE	LOW	Thomas Faurel	clay	—	0.5x
5	Jil Teichmann🧊 COLD	Total Games	19.5	24.51	+25.7%	MORE	LOW	Yasmine Kabbaj	clay	—	0.5x
6	Aliaksandra Sasnovich	Total Games	19.5	24.34	+24.8%	MORE	LOW	Marina Bassols Ribera	clay	—	0.5x
7	Jessica Bouzas Maneiro	Total Games	20.5	24.29	+18.5%	MORE	LOW	Petra Marcinko	clay	—	0.5x
8	Suzan Lamens	Total Games Won	8.5	10.05	+18.2%	MORE	LOW	Maja Chwalinska	clay	—	1.0x
9	Andrea Pellegrino	Total Games	21.5	25.31	+17.7%	MORE	LOW	Marco Cecchinato	clay	—	0.5x
10	Sofia Costoulas	Total Games	20.5	24.12	+17.6%	MORE	LOW	Hanyu Guo	clay	—	0.5x
11	Ashlyn Krueger	Total Games	20.5	24.09	+17.5%	MORE	LOW	Mary Stoiana	clay	—	0.5x
12	Andrea Pellegrino	Total Games Won	12.5	10.35	+17.2%	LESS	LOW	Marco Cecchinato	clay	—	1.0x
13	Lukas Neumayer🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	12.5	10.37	+17.0%	LESS	LOW	Jaime Faria	clay	—	1.0x
14	Daniel Altmaier	Total Games Won	11.5	9.62	+16.4%	LESS	LOW	Tommy Paul	clay	—	0.5x
15	Jaime Faria🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	12.5	10.58	+15.4%	LESS	LOW	Lukas Neumayer	clay	—	1.0x
16	Sloane Stephens🧊 COLD	Total Games	20.5	23.62	+15.2%	MORE	LOW	Leyre Romero Gormaz	clay	—	0.5x
17	Sinja Kraus🟨 WARM	Total Games	20.0	22.86	+14.3%	MORE	LOW	Anna-Lena Friedsam	clay	—	0.5x
18	Toby Samuel🟨 WARM	Total Games	21.5	24.55	+14.2%	MORE	LOW	Gonzalo Bueno	clay	—	0.5x
19	Jesper De Jong	Total Games	21.5	24.50	+14.0%	MORE	LOW	Michael Zheng	clay	—	0.5x
20	Daria Kasatkina🟨 WARM	Total Games	21.5	24.34	+13.2%	MORE	LOW	Jaqueline Cristian	clay	—	0.5x
21	Himeno Sakatsume	Total Games Won	11.5	10.05	+12.6%	LESS	LOW	Elena Pridankina	clay	—	2.0x
22	Michael Zheng⏳ RTRN	Total Games Won	11.5	10.05	+12.6%	LESS	LOW	Jesper De Jong	clay	—	1.0x
23	Facundo Diaz Acosta⏳ RTRN	Total Games Won	12.5	10.95	+12.4%	LESS	LOW	August Holmgren	clay	—	1.0x
24	Jesper De Jong	Total Games Won	12.5	10.95	+12.4%	LESS	LOW	Michael Zheng	clay	—	1.0x
25	Anna-Lena Friedsam🧊 COLD	Total Games Won	8.5	9.55	+12.3%	MORE	LOW	Sinja Kraus	clay	—	1.0x
26	Jaime Faria🟨 WARM	Total Games	22.5	25.22	+12.1%	MORE	LOW	Lukas Neumayer	clay	—	0.5x
27	Alexei Popyrin	Total Games Won	10.5	9.26	+11.8%	LESS	LOW	Casper Ruud	clay	—	0.5x
28	Marie Bouzkova🟨 WARM	Total Games	22.0	24.28	+10.3%	MORE	LOW	Ann Li	clay	—	0.5x
29	Mariano Navone🟨 WARM	Total Games	22.5	24.66	+9.6%	MORE	LOW	Jaume Munar	clay	—	0.5x
30	Tommy Paul🟨 WARM	Total Games	22.5	24.54	+9.1%	MORE	LOW	Daniel Altmaier	clay	—	0.5x
31	Facundo Diaz Acosta⏳ RTRN	Total Games	21.5	23.31	+8.4%	MORE	LOW	August Holmgren	clay	—	0.5x
32	Alina Korneeva🧊 COLD	Total Games	21.5	23.23	+8.0%	MORE	LOW	Julia Riera	clay	—	0.5x
33	Marco Cecchinato	Total Games Won	11.5	10.59	+7.9%	LESS	LOW	Andrea Pellegrino	clay	—	1.0x
34	Mariano Navone🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	12.5	11.52	+7.9%	LESS	LOW	Jaume Munar	clay	—	0.5x
35	Maja Chwalinska⏳ RTRN	Total Games	21.5	22.70	+5.6%	MORE	LOW	Suzan Lamens	clay	—	0.5x
36	Ignacio Buse	Total Games	22.5	23.61	+5.0%	MORE	LOW	Ugo Humbert	clay	—	0.5x
37	August Holmgren🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	10.5	10.05	+4.3%	LESS	LOW	Facundo Diaz Acosta	clay	—	1.0x
38	Mary Stoiana🟨 WARM	Total Games Won	10.5	10.95	+4.3%	MORE	LOW	Ashlyn Krueger	clay	—	1.0x
39	Ignacio Buse	Total Games Won	12.5	11.99	+4.1%	LESS	LOW	Ugo Humbert	clay	—	0.5x
40	Elena Pridankina🟨 WARM	Total Games	21.5	22.13	+2.9%	MORE	LOW	Himeno Sakatsume	clay	—	0.5x
41	Juan Carlos Prado Angelo⏳ RTRN	Total Games	22.5	23.13	+2.8%	MORE	LOW	Coleman Wong	clay	—	0.5x

Kalshi tennis — 3 picks · $6.00 staked

Day 1 - paper only, grade EOD before scaling · locked 2026-05-20T13:11:03.127967+00:00

#	Match	Pick	Our P	Ask	Edge	Tier	Surface	Stake	Status	P&L
1	Roman Safiullin vs Joel Schwaerzler	Joel Schwaerzler	53.5%	37¢	16.5pp	ELITE	hard	$2.00	OPEN	+0.00
2	Coleman Wong vs Zdenek Kolar	Coleman Wong	55.0%	41¢	14.0pp	ELITE	hard	$2.00	OPEN	+2.88
3	Maria Carle vs Maria Timofeeva	Maria Carle	33.9%	21¢	12.9pp	ELITE	clay	$2.00	OPEN	+0.00

PrizePicks tennis — 0 picks · $0.00 staked

Day 1 - paper only, grade EOD before scaling · locked 2026-05-20T13:11:03.064972+00:00

#	Player	Stat	Line	Our proj	Side	Edge	Tier	Surface	Stake	Status	P&L

Polymarket = retail/crypto sentiment. We can't bet there from CA, but the divergence vs Kalshi (sharp) reveals where the public is loading up. Generated 2026-05-20T10:41:18 · flagged threshold = ±3.0pp · 1 flagged futures / 0 flagged matches.

Grand-slam futures · ANY 2026 Slam (Kalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM vs Polymarket per-slam aggregate)

Polymarket "any-slam" probability computed naively as 1 - product(1 - p_slam). Positive divergence = public (Polymarket) more bullish than sharp (Kalshi). Sorted by |divergence|.

Player	Sharp (Kalshi)	Public (Poly)	Δ	Poly per-slam
Novak Djokovic · exact	12.5%	17.5%	+5.0pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Fre 5%, Wim 10%, US 3%
Lorenzo Musetti · exact	4.5%	1.6%	-2.9pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 0%, Wim 1%, US 1%
Daniil Medvedev · exact	8.0%	5.5%	-2.5pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 2%, Wim 2%, US 2%
Alex de Minaur · exact	3.0%	1.5%	-1.5pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 0%, Wim 1%
Karen Khachanov · exact	2.0%	0.5%	-1.5pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 0%, Wim 0%
Felix Auger-Aliassime · exact	2.0%	0.5%	-1.5pp · SHARP HIGHER	Wim 1%
Ben Shelton · exact	4.5%	5.9%	+1.4pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Fre 1%, Wim 4%, US 2%
Jack Draper · exact	4.5%	5.6%	+1.1pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Fre 0%, Wim 3%, US 3%
Alexander Bublik · exact	3.0%	2.0%	-1.0pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 0%, Wim 0%, US 1%
Frances Tiafoe · exact	0.5%	1.4%	+0.9pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Fre 0%, Wim 0%, US 1%
Alexander Zverev · exact	15.0%	14.1%	-0.9pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 7%, Wim 5%, US 3%
Taylor Fritz · exact	4.5%	5.3%	+0.8pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Fre 1%, Wim 3%, US 2%
Jannik Sinner · exact	94.5%	95.1%	+0.6pp · PUBLIC HIGHER	Fre 70%, Wim 66%, US 52%
Casper Ruud · exact	3.5%	3.3%	-0.2pp · SHARP HIGHER	Fre 3%, Wim 0%

Per-match overlaps

No active per-match overlaps right now (Polymarket tennis volume concentrates in Grand Slam futures).

Per-stat-type MAE (n_graded=17)

Bar width = MAE (lower = better). "INSUFFICIENT" = need more graded picks.

Total Games

n=4

Ours

Us 6.45
PP 3.25
INSUFFICIENT_N

Total Games Won

n=12

Ours

Us 4.93
PP 4.50
NULL

Total Tie Breaks

n=1

Ours

Us 0.25
PP 0.50
INSUFFICIENT_N

Per-tier MAE

Bar width = MAE (lower = better). "INSUFFICIENT" = need more graded picks.

ELITE

n=16

Ours

Us 4.94
PP 3.75
NULL

MED

n=0

Ours

Us —
PP —
INSUFFICIENT_N

STRONG

n=1

Ours

Us 6.23
PP 7.50
INSUFFICIENT_N

[!]

No AAR available yet.
Expected: ~/.claude/projects/.../memory/aar_tennis_<date>.md

#	Player	Stat	Opp	Open	Latest	Diff	Abs	Direction
1	Sinja Kraus	Total Games	Anna-Lena Friedsam	21.5	20.0	-1.50	1.50	DOWN
2	Darwin Blanch	Total Games	Tristan Schoolkate	22.5	21.5	-1.00	1.00	DOWN
3	Sofia Costoulas	Total Games	Hanyu Guo	21.5	20.5	-1.00	1.00	DOWN
4	Andrea Pellegrino	Total Games	Marco Cecchinato	22.5	21.5	-1.00	1.00	DOWN
5	Toby Samuel	Total Games	Gonzalo Bueno	22.5	21.5	-1.00	1.00	DOWN
6	Michael Zheng	Total Games Won	Jesper De Jong	10.5	11.5	+1.00	1.00	UP
7	Maja Chwalinska	Total Games	Suzan Lamens	20.5	21.5	+1.00	1.00	UP
8	Suzan Lamens	Total Games Won	Maja Chwalinska	9.5	8.5	-1.00	1.00	DOWN
9	Sloane Stephens	Total Games	Leyre Romero Gormaz	21.5	20.5	-1.00	1.00	DOWN

ATP top 50

Rk	Player	Country	Pts	ELO overall	ELO clay	ELO grass	ELO hard
1	Jannik Sinner	ITA	14350	2175	1857	1695	2062
2	Carlos Alcaraz	ESP	12960	2070	1867	1717	1956
3	Alexander Zverev	GER	5805	1961	1816	1594	1863
4	Novak Djokovic	SRB	4700	1955	1738	1636	1846
5	Felix Auger Aliassime	CAN	4050	1864	1605	1517	1803
6	Ben Shelton	USA	4030	1848	1683	1561	1765
7	Taylor Fritz	USA	3770	1826	1581	1722	1749
8	Alex De Minaur	AUS	3755	1847	1652	1590	1806
9	Daniil Medvedev	RUS	3460	1878	1641	1585	1845
10	Lorenzo Musetti	ITA	3415	1828	1756	1607	1723
11	Alexander Bublik	KAZ	3355	1803	1724	1569	1703
12	Flavio Cobolli	ITA	2750	1796	1720	1557	1655
13	Jiri Lehecka	CZE	2715	1837	1647	1574	1754
14	Andrey Rublev	RUS	2590	1762	1658	1516	1683
15	Karen Khachanov	RUS	2220	1691	1586	1567	1639
16	Valentin Vacherot	MON	2147	1810	1702	1467	1738
17	Arthur Fils	FRA	2130	1912	1762	1546	1771
18	Tommy Paul	USA	1975	1842	1748	1587	1743
19	Cameron Norrie	GBR	1918	1776	1658	1529	1682
20	Luciano Darderi	ITA	1890	1714	1767	1466	1466
21	Learner Tien	USA	1870	1800	1466	1506	1789
22	Frances Tiafoe	USA	1865	1771	1604	1488	1719
23	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	ESP	1820	1756	1572	1545	1703
24	Arthur Rinderknech	FRA	1736	1713	1566	1530	1631
25	Casper Ruud	NOR	1735	1792	1744	1502	1685
26	Tomas Martin Etcheverry	ARG	1660	1785	1693	1456	1636
27	Francisco Cerundolo	ARG	1620	1801	1726	1426	1698
28	Jakub Mensik	CZE	1600	1795	1589	1497	1747
29	Joao Fonseca	BRA	1435	1818	1638	1495	1795
30	Corentin Moutet	FRA	1413	1706	1600	1574	1640
31	Tallon Griekspoor	NED	1360	1681	1575	1564	1645
32	Brandon Nakashima	USA	1295	1706	1570	1590	1660
33	Ugo Humbert	FRA	1280	1712	1451	1517	1697
34	Rafael Jodar	ESP	1273	1874	1714	—	1765
35	Alejandro Tabilo	CHI	1248	1786	1696	1575	1637
36	Alexander Blockx	BEL	1200	1820	1689	1508	1713
37	Denis Shapovalov	CAN	1170	1690	1498	1472	1698
38	Jaume Munar	ESP	1155	1695	1563	1508	1635
39	Zizou Bergs	BEL	1140	1705	1570	1521	1631
40	Holger Rune	DEN	1110	1744	1663	1515	1710
41	Tomas Machac	CZE	1100	1737	1592	1500	1682
42	Alex Michelsen	USA	1090	1715	1488	1538	1702
43	Sebastian Korda	USA	1050	1806	1537	1556	1757
44	Mariano Navone	ARG	1046	1718	1716	1460	1507
45	Adrian Mannarino	FRA	1035	1589	1390	1584	1569
46	Gabriel Diallo	CAN	1000	1651	1554	1576	1615
47	Marin Cilic	CRO	980	1710	1539	1611	1635
48	Ethan Quinn	USA	977	1731	1594	1509	1683
49	Fabian Marozsan	HUN	975	1672	1566	1450	1608
50	Jack Draper	GBR	960	1806	1634	1594	1750

WTA top 50

Rk	Player	Country	Pts	ELO overall	ELO clay	ELO grass	ELO hard
1	Aryna Sabalenka	BLR	10110	2115	1808	1588	2045
2	Elena Rybakina	KAZ	8555	2063	1760	1580	1972
3	Iga Swiatek	POL	6948	1924	1780	1658	1852
4	Coco Gauff	USA	6749	1957	1787	1519	1871
5	Jessica Pegula	USA	6136	1997	1701	1583	1901
6	Amanda Anisimova	USA	5985	1916	1561	1638	1822
7	Mirra Andreeva	RUS	4181	1932	1800	1513	1797
8	Jasmine Paolini	ITA	3722	1815	1707	1585	1741
9	Victoria Mboko	CAN	3531	1936	1704	1515	1891
10	Elina Svitolina	UKR	3530	1922	1727	1550	1824
11	Karolina Muchova	CZE	3318	1951	1597	1494	1869
12	Belinda Bencic	SUI	3090	1898	1584	1561	1831
13	Linda Noskova	CZE	2999	1881	1589	1583	1763
14	Ekaterina Alexandrova	RUS	2669	1747	1593	1584	1662
15	Marta Kostyuk	UKR	2507	1924	1757	1449	1755
16	Naomi Osaka	JPN	2341	1819	1628	1514	1734
17	Iva Jovic	USA	2235	1829	1663	1601	1759
18	Clara Tauson	DEN	2030	1746	1560	1520	1679
19	Madison Keys	USA	1946	1836	1706	1558	1766
20	Diana Shnaider	RUS	1946	1782	1647	1565	1686
21	Liudmila Samsonova	RUS	1895	1697	1604	1619	1566
22	Elise Mertens	BEL	1858	1802	1580	1581	1714
23	Leylah Fernandez	CAN	1851	1790	1590	1546	1679
24	Anna Kalinskaya	RUS	1758	1784	1538	1546	1721
25	Hailey Baptiste	USA	1747	1785	1662	1488	1667
26	Marie Bouzkova	CZE	1651	1773	1699	1476	1648
27	Sorana Cirstea	ROU	1595	1866	1612	1429	1797
28	Jaqueline Cristian	ROU	1437	1770	1635	1432	1698
29	Ann Li	USA	1435	1745	1638	1478	1647
30	Emma Raducanu	GBR	1430	1753	1570	1577	1658
31	Cristina Bucsa	ESP	1406	1738	1475	1514	1684
32	Qinwen Zheng	CHN	1405	1819	1737	1497	1737
33	Xin Yu Wang	CHN	1401	1735	1546	1591	1616
34	Maya Joint	AUS	1380	1711	1688	1579	1641
35	Emma Navarro	USA	1377	1680	1578	1590	1613
36	Jelena Ostapenko	LAT	1369	1723	1632	1534	1621
37	Sara Bejlek	CZE	1360	1832	1797	1486	1653
38	Anastasia Potapova	RUS	1355	1787	1690	1484	1640
39	Katerina Siniakova	CZE	1342	1777	1549	1578	1693
40	Janice Tjen	INA	1317	1817	1662	—	1785
41	Elisabetta Cocciaretto	ITA	1290	1800	1584	1577	1689
42	Alexandra Eala	PHI	1285	1786	1478	1600	1748
43	Lois Boisson	FRA	1268	1791	1811	1483	1554
44	Marketa Vondrousova	CZE	1263	1728	1606	1578	1609
45	Magdalena Frech	POL	1263	1649	1534	1434	1613
46	Laura Siegemund	GER	1250	1680	1535	1541	1592
47	Maria Sakkari	GRE	1238	1707	1563	1486	1658
48	Tereza Valentova	CZE	1231	1845	1746	1517	1788
49	Peyton Stearns	USA	1211	1710	1636	1471	1621
50	Mccartney Kessler	USA	1204	1754	1516	1583	1688

Source	DB / file	Last pulled	Age	Rows	Status
Kalshi KXATPMATCH	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-20T17:39:10.301279+00:00	2m	1770	fresh
Kalshi KXWTAMATCH	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-20T17:39:10.301279+00:00	2m	1672	fresh
Kalshi KXFRENCHOPEN	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-20T17:39:10.301279+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXFOPENMENSINGLE	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-20T17:39:10.301279+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATPGRANDSLAM	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-20T17:39:10.301279+00:00	2m	14	fresh
Kalshi KXUSOPEN	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-20T17:39:10.301279+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATPSETWINNER	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-20T17:39:10.301279+00:00	2m	3516	fresh
Kalshi KXATPTOTALSETS	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-20T17:39:10.301279+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATPSETSWEEP	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-20T17:39:10.301279+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATPGAMESPREAD	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-20T17:39:10.301279+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATPEXACTMATCH	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-20T17:39:10.301279+00:00	2m	1016	fresh
Kalshi KXWTADOUBLES	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-20T17:39:10.301279+00:00	2m	0	fresh
Kalshi KXATP1RANK	tennis_kalshi.sqlite	2026-05-20T17:39:10.301279+00:00	2m	16	fresh
elo last computed	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-20T17:39:05+00:00	2m	20051	fresh
rankings last pulled	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-20T17:39:09+00:00	2m	3745	fresh
rankings atp latest date	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-04	401.69h	—	stale
rankings wta latest date	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-04	401.69h	—	stale
mirror atp schedule	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-20T17:40:41.935272+00:00	0m	93	fresh
h2h last computed	tennis.sqlite	2026-05-17T10:11:57.514615+00:00	79.49h	—	stale
h2h n pairs	tennis.sqlite	190184	missing	—	missing
last player db run	tennis.sqlite	1779298858	missing	—	missing
results last_run	tennis_results.sqlite	[2026-05-20T17:40:43.956932+00:00] 2026-05-20T17:40:42.265653+00:00; dates=['20260519']; rows=491; resolved=475	missing	—	missing
pp_edges CSV	pp_edges_tennis_2026-05-20.csv	2026-05-20T17:41:06.351404+00:00	0m	—	fresh
kalshi edges JSON	tennis_kalshi_edges_2026-05-20.json	2026-05-20T17:41:04.319084+00:00	0m	—	fresh
paper trades PP	paper_trades_pp_tennis_2026-05-20.json	2026-05-20T17:41:08.107613+00:00	0m	—	fresh
paper trades Kalshi	paper_trades_kalshi_tennis_2026-05-20.json	2026-05-20T17:41:08.587620+00:00	0m	—	fresh
daily payload	daily_tennis_2026-05-20.json	2026-05-20T17:41:09.250124+00:00	0m	—	fresh
PP movement	pp_line_movement_tennis_2026-05-20.csv	2026-05-20T17:41:08.770127+00:00	0m	—	fresh
PP calibration	pp_calibration_tennis.json	2026-05-20T17:41:08.704455+00:00	0m	—	fresh